NY 189 - Flower Viewing Festival [~fin~]

[DrippingGoofball]

You posted your scum puter algorithms results, i identified flaws in your work.

Then impress me, fix it and find scum. If you find that I am scum that means your theory failed. That's the litmus test.

[Spiffeh]

You do know Shiro is dead right?

Also answer my question pls

Not through your algorithm or w/e but what you genuinely think.

[pieguyn]

votecount 7.5

Sakura Hana (2) - Echo Echo, Shazam

Shazam (1) - Sakura Hana
Echo Echo (1) - AxleGreaser

Not voting (2) - Spiffeh, DrippingGoofball

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is October 3, 10:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2015-10-03 10:00:00).

AxleGreaser is V/LA until October 3.

[AxleGreaser]

sry there are prolly his 's in this. Dont have time to fix them.

Also cant remember how clearly I speeled this out or whether this will be clearer.

Spoiler: read if I die

Why only if I die.
If i am dead you can take my assertions (about math and what is for instance fundamental) as being based on actual experience and background knowledge.
I in my expert opinion am qualified to say what is

fundamental

.

Whats wrong with DGBs scum puter that is IMO a bit alignment indicative about DGB.

DGB did the scum putering wrong. (did not use own algorithm) (this bit alone is not all that alignment indicative... BTW)

The difference was important. One of the steps is to compute how many scum you expect in the unflipped players.
Its kind of

fundamental

to the concept of the scum puter to do that. DGB didnt.

DGB says DGB was feeling lazy or words to that effect and cut corners, Ok. so yeah kinda.

BUT

When i initially asked DGB about, about counting a wagon that already had one flipped scum on it and expecting another.
Which is an obvious ooops I fucked up kind of error. DGB instead claimed that "no wagons are expected to have a bit more than average amount of scum."
That is a flat out made up answer. (it is incongruous with the documented algorithm on the wiki) << this bit is the problem.

other larger wagons in her analysis could be expected to perhaps have 2 scum, but she counted them as if they were one.
and then one wagon expected to have none so people on that wagon SHOULD get town points not scum ones.. were given scum points.

I am fairly sure DGB did not do that analysis to work out who would be scum, but knew what the answer was before they started.
(or at worst wet finger guessed it by visual inspection.)
Again, hey i can in fact visually inspect the wagon and tell you what i reckon is likely. Sakua votes a lot, the scum puter will scum read her no matter the alignment.
but
the bit i just cant really put in town DGB, is

When i initially asked DGB about, about counting a wagon that already had one flipped scum on it and expecting another.
Which is an obvious ooops I fucked up kind of error. DGB instead claimed that "no wagons are expected to have a bit more than average amount of scum."
That is a flat out made up answer.

Surely according to your assumptions once you find enough scum on a wagon then any unflipped people look townier not scummier.

There tends to be more scum on wagons than expected by chance.

This in now way deals with the problem of failing to subtract the number of flipped scum from the expected number left on the wagon.
Fudging it and using larger wagons with an expectaion >1 as if they are all 1 is meh. Including the one that is now expected to have zero scum is double meh.


How strong is that?

Not all that strong, I like my frogger points that many people reject more. BUT it is clean read on new slot, and i know its not from being tunneled. That one is pretty much straight out of the numerical rational side of my brain.

Whats the town explanation. DGb always knew the computaion ass wrong but thought I didnt actually know what I was talking about so they just blew me off.
My advice. betting axle doesnt know stuff is dumb.

[AxleGreaser]

You posted your scum puter algorithms results, i identified flaws in your work.

Then impress me, fix it and find scum. If you find that I am scum that means your theory failed. That's the litmus test.

either that or scumputering is not as strong a predictor as you claim it is.

Google "weak leaner", "Boosting", for theoretical treatment of the subject matter.
I need to go.

[DrippingGoofball]

You do know Shiro is dead right?

Also answer my question pls

Not through your algorithm or w/e but what you genuinely think.

I do not?

[Spiffeh]

You don't know that Shiro is dead?

?
?
?

[DrippingGoofball]

Axle, I am town. You are adorably dead wrong.

[DrippingGoofball]

You don't know that Shiro is dead?

?
?
?

Ooops

[DrippingGoofball]

Did I look at a wrong version?

[Spiffeh]

DGB who is Scumraka's teammate?

[AxleGreaser]

as is you continuing to scum read Shiro....

FFS what is that fake town tell or sumthing.

[AxleGreaser]

bye now.
See you all tomorrow or the after life.

[Sakura Hana]

Yeah i don't get how DGB keeps coming back to Shiro being alive...
Also who's Scumraka?

[DrippingGoofball]

I don't usually look at the scumputer that way but I made a color graphic for myself and I see that the following scumpairs, while not impossible, are unlikely.

AXLE >>> unlikely scum with Shazam, Echo and Sakura
so could be scum with

Shiro

or Spiffeh.

SAKURA >>> unlikely with AXLE, but possible with everyone else.

ECHO >>> unlikely scum with Axle or Shazam,
so could be scum with

Shiro

, Spiffeh, Sakura.

There are no other forbidden pairs.

(1) But one of Axle and Sakura nearly HAS to be scum, though not both of them together.

If Axle is scum, his partner is Spiffeh.

If Sakura is scum then her partner is someone other than Axle.

(2) Sakura AND Echo could both be scum, and be scum together.

If only Echo is scum, his partner is Spiffeh.

If only Sakura is scum then her partner is someone other than Axle.

(3) Sakura AND Spiffeh could both be scum, and be scum together.

If only Sakura is scum, then her partner is Shazam or Echo.

If only Spiffeh is scum, then his partner could be anyone.

[DrippingGoofball]

Yeah i don't get how DGB keeps coming back to Shiro being alive...

Yeah I did a diagram but I used my Live-Shiro scumputer version.

[Spiffeh]

He thinks you're scum so that's the name I'm using for you

[Sakura Hana]

Do you realize that if Axle was scum with spiffeh i would be hammered by now?

P-Edit: but that name sounds ugly :< also DGB is a she.

[Spiffeh]

FUCK I KNEW THAT sorry DGB

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB who is Scumraka's teammate?

Echo or Spiffeh, but I'd say more likely Echo.

[Spiffeh]

Speaking of spam I was bored so I made this:

Spoiler:

Sadly some people are only there in spirit I couldnt figure out how to put them in. Faceless dude is IAI he has a red tag that says I am innocent but it not visble : (

Shiro: Gone but never forgotten <3

[DrippingGoofball]

Do you realize that if Axle was scum with spiffeh i would be hammered by now?

P-Edit: but that name sounds ugly :< also DGB is a she.

Oh yeah, for real!

Well as bad as he is... it pains me to say, he's bloody well near conftown then.

[DrippingGoofball]

Do you realize that if Axle was scum with spiffeh i would be hammered by now?

P-Edit: but that name sounds ugly :< also DGB is a she.

Oh yeah, for real!

Well as bad as he is... it pains me to say, he's bloody well near conftown then.

That is >>>IF<<< you're town of course!

[DrippingGoofball]

But if you're scum they are not scum together. I am slow tonight.

[Spiffeh]

DGB can you explain why myself and Echo are the most likely candidates to be her partner?