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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:01 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 683, Spiffeh wrote:Ok vote for someone you want to lynch then?

In post 684, Spiffeh wrote:Why are you so concerned with defending a slot but not even offering an alternative?


We vote when we have a rational reason to do so. That's literally the defining characteristic of my play, and Cerberus' play, and our play in this hydra. We use logic, question everything, do our absolute best to avoid cognitive biases and view the game as a puzzle to solve. I catch a lot of flack in various games for how infrequently I use my vote as a bludgeon (it's not a measure of first resort ... it's just NOT), and Cerb is even more reserved. Show me someone whose day one posting now looks scummy given the new info we have, and I'll be happy to evaluate. I'm already re-reading because that's where my strength is.

For example ... that page one thing is still bothering me. I am not wholly convinced that it was "just a joke". I think that if a wagon had actually formed on BotLane, it wouldn't have been called a "joke" later on.

As for defending a slot; I was going to say that I wasn't but then I realized that I actually am. Mastin may play this game in a way that is indecipherable to me, but Mastin has years and years of good results and after awhile it's just not a fluke. Scum Mastin is never lurky but plays with pure confidence and drives the game. That's weak evidence for this being town mastin, and town mastin is an asset... not a slot you lynch when you're clearing out lurkers.

In post 685, Cephrir wrote:
In post 679, Reasonably Rational wrote:Why on earth is there a fast wagon building on Teridax?

And for the various {insert drug of choice here} heads who are high and think we are scum because X person who was scum reading us died during the night... you're seriously under estimating us. If I had to make a list of who I would have wanted to kill last night, accepting the necessary premises, I'm not even sure I would have added Maxous to the bottom of that list. Quiet universally town read person who for some reason thinks we're scum ... would never be our kill choice. I get that some folks are aren't yet convinced that our approach to the game has any merit, but please don't just outright insult our intelligence. We do actually have feelings. We're not just rational robots.

I know that speculation is just such; however, my guess would be that Maxous was killed by scum and Ika was killed by vig/3p. Ika was throwing up third party signals yesterday for some reason and since basically every third party role helps scum, it seems ridiculously unlikely that he was the scum kill. So the only real question is whether that was a zero vig kill or if we should expect two to die every night regularly. I'm not asking for anything, but if I were said zero vig and I had expended my shot and wasn't going to get another one, I would say something just to help folks out.

Sadly that is not our role and we have nothing useful to add just at the moment. Hopefully that will change.

But seriously ... what's up with the Teridax wagon? Is that just Mastin hate or did I miss something?

I'm sure you would like to know whether you should be worried about getting vigged ;)

Yeah there's nothing good in this post


If it's a one-shot vig who screwed up, then speaking up is all positive town utility. They already screwed up the shot and it would be weak evidence that we're dealing with a single team and not multiple teams or a team plus a third party killer. I was pretty clear that I only thought it was a good idea for a vig who was now just VT to speak up. That gives town info and puts scum in the position of either leaving a high probability (from town perspective) town player in the game or killing what amounts to a VT. Forcing scum into choosing from choices that are all sub-optimal is really good. So why are you against it?

We're not in the least bit worried about being vigged. In fact ... a vig shooting us would accomplish absolutely nothing but wasting a vig shot. Maybe if you reset your priors and stopped reading anything we say in the most negative way possible due to absurd day 1 confirmation bias, you might actually accomplish something and be useful instead of tunneling us for not conforming to your ego.

In post 697, LicketyQuickety wrote:I have scum reads on:
Ved - because if meta primarily. (Its weak I know)
RR - because it looks like they might have something to lose
Spiffeh - because I really hated that initial "observation" and some is meta as well.


2+2 = 4. You should know what we have to "lose" if you are at all competent.


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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:02 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 699, Cephrir wrote:Vedith can be scum too. Man, it's like whack a mole in here.


I'm sensing a theme here. Let me see if I can encapsulate your opinion into an equation form.

{Name of anyone except Cephrir} = can be scum.

Congratulations. You have a proper town mindset.
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:03 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 387, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 385, Performer wrote:
In post 382, ika wrote:can we jsut lynch a lurker and move on later i feel like active posters are town atm and everoyne lurking is bad or scum

also i request my 10 page essay form TTH

This sounds incredibly opportunistic.


Ika is being very town, overall. But, if you think that's opportunistic, that means you believe that scum are wholly among the non lurking players...otherwise, it wouldn't be opportunistic, because he'd just be offering up his buddies as his preferred lynches. So, do you believe scum are mostly within the set [RR, Cephrir, Heartless, Davesaz, Botlane, Ika]? Those have been the main drivers of the conversation today. (I may have missed someone, mobile and just going off memory)

Mod: the vote count prior to Drixx asking that question showed Teridax as the only person voting for Botlane, but Botlane had two votes. We were checking if there was a double voter in play, or if it was an error.


-Cerb


RR read on Ika is a big reason I am Scumreading that hydra currently. He talks about Ika a lot in his ISO.
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:08 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

Prolly my most controversial read at this point in time is that Dave looks to be Town right now.
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:13 am

Post by MattP »

I agree with dave-town
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:13 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

Did you actually read the game LQ? Ika spewed 3rd party soft claim early, and also quick hammered.

It's beginning to look like you started with a desired conclusion (RR = scum) and are attempting to go find things you can shove into place as "reasons". That's super scummy. If you had actually read our ISO, you would realize that there were two of us, and primarily I talked about Ika in regards to his 3rd party talk and asked Cephrir about it, and then in twilight talked about his quick hammer. The other references to ika came from my hydra partner, and are all contextually different.

You're giving off super scummy signals with your entrance into the game. Starting with a conclusion and manipulating and taking data out of context to try and support that conclusion is a gigantic neon sign that you are either just playing really badly or (more likely, in our experience) you are scum trying to push a wagon you think might go.
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:15 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 703, LicketyQuickety wrote:Prolly my most controversial read at this point in time is that Dave looks to be Town right now.


Why would any read be controversial at the start of day 2? Day one is crapshoot wherein we got lucky. Day two just started, and you are tossing out reads without any reasons. Did you pick up the scum rag and start rubbing all over yourself on purpose?
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:18 am

Post by MattP »

In post 706, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 703, LicketyQuickety wrote:Prolly my most controversial read at this point in time is that Dave looks to be Town right now.


Why would any read be controversial at the start of day 2? Day one is crapshoot wherein we got lucky. Day two just started, and you are tossing out reads without any reasons. Did you pick up the scum rag and start rubbing all over yourself on purpose?

You're really nitpicking whether something is "controversial" and using that to validate a scumread?
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:18 am

Post by MattP »

Like even if he's wrong about a read being controversial, how is it scummy?
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:19 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 705, Reasonably Rational wrote:Did you actually read the game LQ? Ika spewed 3rd party soft claim early, and also quick hammered.

It's beginning to look like you started with a desired conclusion (RR = scum) and are attempting to go find things you can shove into place as "reasons". That's super scummy. If you had actually read our ISO, you would realize that there were two of us, and primarily I talked about Ika in regards to his 3rd party talk and asked Cephrir about it, and then in twilight talked about his quick hammer. The other references to ika came from my hydra partner, and are all contextually different.

You're giving off super scummy signals with your entrance into the game. Starting with a conclusion and manipulating and taking data out of context to try and support that conclusion is a gigantic neon sign that you are either just playing really badly or (more likely, in our experience) you are scum trying to push a wagon you think might go.


I read the the thread almost all the way through twice now. I have other reasons for thinking your slot is scum, like you hard defending everything you have said for example.

Based off the Quick Hammer I don't see how that makes Ika town whatsoever. Performer what getting lynch day one and Ika just sped up the process. Performer was by far the Scummiest person in the entire thread so I don't see how Ikas hammer is really indicative of alignment.
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:28 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

That whooshing sound you hear every time you read my twilight posts is the point of them going right over your head. The question still stands to PV. Alignment of the person who hammered and got hammered are known and irrelevant to my question.

And stop with the "you defending everything you said" crap. If someone interacts with us, we respond. That's how this game works. Calling someone scummy for being engaged is absurd. Calling someone scummy for believing they have valid observations and sticking to their guns is even worse. Our job isn't to placate anyone who scum reads us. Our job is to find scum and convince the rest of you lot that we're right.

Going to go do something else for awhile. Arguing about stupid things that don't matter and won't help us find scum is a waste of everyone's time.
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:34 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

Can we talk about the double kill last night?
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:50 am

Post by Cerberus v666 »

In post 702, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 387, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 385, Performer wrote:
In post 382, ika wrote:can we jsut lynch a lurker and move on later i feel like active posters are town atm and everoyne lurking is bad or scum

also i request my 10 page essay form TTH

This sounds incredibly opportunistic.


Ika is being very town, overall. But, if you think that's opportunistic, that means you believe that scum are wholly among the non lurking players...otherwise, it wouldn't be opportunistic, because he'd just be offering up his buddies as his preferred lynches. So, do you believe scum are mostly within the set [RR, Cephrir, Heartless, Davesaz, Botlane, Ika]? Those have been the main drivers of the conversation today. (I may have missed someone, mobile and just going off memory)

Mod: the vote count prior to Drixx asking that question showed Teridax as the only person voting for Botlane, but Botlane had two votes. We were checking if there was a double voter in play, or if it was an error.


-Cerb


RR read on Ika is a big reason I am Scumreading that hydra currently. He talks about Ika a lot in his ISO.


Hi LQ. Welcome to the game. I'm confused by this. Are you scumreading us because we were able to determine that a player who seems to always lurk as scum was being active and was thus likely town, or are you scumreading us because you think we'd spend a bunch of time talking about the person we wanted to kill in thread, leaving obvious clues, and then kill them?

What would you like to discuss about the double kill, which hasn't already been touched on? Two kills indicates at least one of three things, since we can't account for kills which may have been prevented.

1) Two scum factions
2) One scum faction and a third party who can kill
3) One scum faction, and a town vig.

Beyond that, do you have some new info to add that might clarify things?

Also, thanks Drixx for speaking up about my illness. I might not be wholly "here" today, but I'll try.

-Cerb
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:51 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 712, Cerberus v666 wrote:
In post 702, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 387, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 385, Performer wrote:
In post 382, ika wrote:can we jsut lynch a lurker and move on later i feel like active posters are town atm and everoyne lurking is bad or scum

also i request my 10 page essay form TTH

This sounds incredibly opportunistic.


Ika is being very town, overall. But, if you think that's opportunistic, that means you believe that scum are wholly among the non lurking players...otherwise, it wouldn't be opportunistic, because he'd just be offering up his buddies as his preferred lynches. So, do you believe scum are mostly within the set [RR, Cephrir, Heartless, Davesaz, Botlane, Ika]? Those have been the main drivers of the conversation today. (I may have missed someone, mobile and just going off memory)

Mod: the vote count prior to Drixx asking that question showed Teridax as the only person voting for Botlane, but Botlane had two votes. We were checking if there was a double voter in play, or if it was an error.


-Cerb


RR read on Ika is a big reason I am Scumreading that hydra currently. He talks about Ika a lot in his ISO.


Hi LQ. Welcome to the game. I'm confused by this. Are you scumreading us because we were able to determine that a player who seems to always lurk as scum was being active and was thus likely town, or are you scumreading us because you think we'd spend a bunch of time talking about the person we wanted to kill in thread, leaving obvious clues, and then kill them?

What would you like to discuss about the double kill, which hasn't already been touched on? Two kills indicates at least one of three things, since we can't account for kills which may have been prevented.

1) Two scum factions
2) One scum faction and a third party who can kill
3) One scum faction, and a town vig.

Beyond that, do you have some new info to add that might clarify things?

Also, thanks Drixx for speaking up about my illness. I might not be wholly "here" today, but I'll try.

-Cerb


Ugh. Hydra pick up. I don't even know why I was logged into that account, I only have one game going on right now. *sigh*

-Cerb
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:12 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 713, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 712, Cerberus v666 wrote:
In post 702, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 387, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 385, Performer wrote:
In post 382, ika wrote:can we jsut lynch a lurker and move on later i feel like active posters are town atm and everoyne lurking is bad or scum

also i request my 10 page essay form TTH

This sounds incredibly opportunistic.


Ika is being very town, overall. But, if you think that's opportunistic, that means you believe that scum are wholly among the non lurking players...otherwise, it wouldn't be opportunistic, because he'd just be offering up his buddies as his preferred lynches. So, do you believe scum are mostly within the set [RR, Cephrir, Heartless, Davesaz, Botlane, Ika]? Those have been the main drivers of the conversation today. (I may have missed someone, mobile and just going off memory)

Mod: the vote count prior to Drixx asking that question showed Teridax as the only person voting for Botlane, but Botlane had two votes. We were checking if there was a double voter in play, or if it was an error.


-Cerb


RR read on Ika is a big reason I am Scumreading that hydra currently. He talks about Ika a lot in his ISO.


Hi LQ. Welcome to the game. I'm confused by this. Are you scumreading us because we were able to determine that a player who seems to always lurk as scum was being active and was thus likely town, or are you scumreading us because you think we'd spend a bunch of time talking about the person we wanted to kill in thread, leaving obvious clues, and then kill them?


I don't think you meta tell is very good honestly. Ika hasn't exactly been the prime example of bringing content into the game.

I'm not sure I follow this last bit. I didn't catch that you spent a lot of time saying you wanted to kill Ika. If you're talking about someone else you are going to have to specify to help my memory. I'm terrible at remembering a logical sequence of events and mostly read by other methods.

In post 713, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 712, Cerberus v666 wrote:What would you like to discuss about the double kill, which hasn't already been touched on? Two kills indicates at least one of three things, since we can't account for kills which may have been prevented.

1) Two scum factions
2) One scum faction and a third party who can kill
3) One scum faction, and a town vig.


Like I said, my observational capabilities are pretty lacking and I usually use my admittedly weird reasoning for my reads which I'm sure will come out sometime in this thread unless they already have with the way people are questioning my reads. But yes, if anyone has Mod Meta on Coug's games I'd like to know if anyone can tell me what roles he's likely to use.

In post 713, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 712, Cerberus v666 wrote:Beyond that, do you have some new info to add that might clarify things?


I gave my thoughts on some of my read on you that hasn't been talked about yet - that you are hard defending every argument you make and not at all rethinking any points you have made. It could just be playstyle, but I read it as Scummy right now.

In post 713, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 712, Cerberus v666 wrote:, Reasonably Rational"]Also, thanks Drixx for speaking up about my illness. I might not be wholly "here" today, but I'll try.

-Cerb


Ugh. Hydra pick up. I don't even know why I was logged into that account, I only have one game going on right now. *sigh*

-Cerb
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:27 am

Post by Firebringer »

I am trying to get back into this, but I don't know where to go today with voting and pressure.
My town read ended up a scum read yesterday.

I think Maxous was Null for me too. So yeah.
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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:32 am

Post by Firebringer »

Heartless is def town for me.
Lickety seems like town.
Ika....probably would hammer anyone. I don't know what to think of him yet.
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His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:33 am

Post by Spiffeh »

Lol
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:33 am

Post by Firebringer »

In post 717, Spiffeh wrote:Lol

What is so funny newb?
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his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
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His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:34 am

Post by Firebringer »

Spiffeh is probably town too >.>
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His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:38 am

Post by Spiffeh »

ika died bbygrl
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:39 am

Post by Firebringer »

In post 720, Spiffeh wrote:ika died bbygrl

Did I mention my reading comprehension is shit?
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his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:41 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

LQ, I'm not a big fan of meta tells myself, but I'm telling you that's why there was a town read on Ika. He was actually doing stuff. That's a good sign for him. It's not ironclad or anything, especially since he's smart enough to be aware of that tell and manipulate if he ever chooses to do so, but it was a positive sign.

My point with the other post was basically...do you think we'd spend the day interacting with and talking to someone, and then kill them that night? That seems like a pretty dumb thing for me to do as scum when I have a wide open field of options, including a bunch that I haven't even interacted with.

Anyways, Drixx and I rethink *everything* pretty consistently, but that is a problem with our playstyle. If we arrive at a conclusion due to evidence, and the evidence or the circumstances surrounding the evidence don't change in any material fashion, the conclusion isn't going to change....so it looks like we're being stubborn, but it's really that we have a REASON to believe what we do, and we haven't yet found a reason to change our mind, and/or don't find the reasons presented by others to be compelling.

Firebringer: Ika is dead. He flipped VT. I will cautiously call that a townslip for the moment.

-Cerb
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:52 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

Since Ika is dead, why kill him? IIRC, some people were saying they soft claimed 3p. This needs to be looked at to see if that person(s) would NK them.
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:58 am

Post by Firebringer »

Yeah....killing Ika doesn't make sense.
Anyone should know that Ika is good mislynch bait.
At least back on my homesite he has been.
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown

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