Newbie 1656 : Game Over

[SilverWolf]

VOTE: lordj

PoE at this point.

[Ether]

@Ether How did you like the game so far?

Eh, it's filled with annoying jumps between "everyone is terrible especially me" and "well I suck but this still is in the bag!" and "wtf nothing makes sense" and "well, hell, everything else makes less sense, let's do this." Could be worse, though! Not having to care about you or feel guilty that I'm putting off MoosyDoosy anymore is kind of nice, and goodmorning being scum means I don't have to be mad at her.

Also, I think we are going to win? With luck I won't even have to fight for my life first.

Why?

[SilverWolf]

Well, I feel pretty good about things. We lynched scum D1, they didn't get to kill N1, and I don't see town losing here. The second scum would have to survive to a 3P lylo to even have chance which would mean:

IF we mislynched here and scum got a kill in:

-6 people alive tomorrow

IF we mislynched then and scum got a kill in:

-4 people alive and mylo

Prob NL:

Then 3P lylo and then scum would have to win that.

It's not likely.

IMO, lordj lynch now, if that doesn't end it, jail LoHa, then tomorrow we look at MightyMandarin or Ether.

I don't see anyone else being scum here. If I'm wrong, they are playing a hell of a game and bussed GM.

The GM push on lorj didn't really occur until she was gonna get lynched anyway and all she did was vote there, probably a distancing move which is why she had him in her scumreads for awhile.

This is all WIFOM but still. That's where I'm at.

[Mightymandarin]

@Ether I guess I realize I was going more by coming to a conclusion first and trying to find evidence that fits. I think it really just comes down to me being lazy and not taking the time to really think. Also there's a lot of jargon being thrown around that I'm not familiar with and have to stop and look up every acronym and it feels a bit like reading a textbook at times. I've kept quiet most of this game because I've just been observing how other people build cases; I think that's a good way to learn.

I was pretty sure about Moosy but since he claimed, that pretty much just leaves lordj who is trying to make a case against me for a pretty weak reason, since you could argue the same thing if I was the last person to vote. If I were scum I'd might as well hammer my partner because that makes me look more town, right? I guess there's different points of views about vote count analysis (another thing I had to look up). I could go back and comb the thread and build case against lordj, but it looks like other people are already doing that for me. Keep up the good work, everyone.

[Sakura Hana]

It is fine, if you're town, i wouldn't expect a newbie to come up with super solid cases right off the bat, but it's a good idea to point out stuff that bothers you.
I wanna go here today
VOTE: Ether

[lordj210]

@Ether I guess I realize I was going more by coming to a conclusion first and trying to find evidence that fits. I think it really just comes down to me being lazy and not taking the time to really think. Also there's a lot of jargon being thrown around that I'm not familiar with and have to stop and look up every acronym and it feels a bit like reading a textbook at times. I've kept quiet most of this game because I've just been observing how other people build cases; I think that's a good way to learn.

I was pretty sure about Moosy but since he claimed, that pretty much just leaves lordj who is trying to make a case against me for a pretty weak reason, since you could argue the same thing if I was the last person to vote. If I were scum I'd might as well hammer my partner because that makes me look more town, right? I guess there's different points of views about vote count analysis (another thing I had to look up). I could go back and comb the thread and build case against lordj, but it looks like other people are already doing that for me. Keep up the good work, everyone.

if yah think im skum then lynch me and kill a vanilla towni and lose another townie at night long as town wins in the long un im fine with being the sacrifical goat today though i still say mandarian needs to be looked at tomarrow

[LoHa]

@Ether How did you like the game so far?

Eh, it's filled with annoying jumps between "everyone is terrible especially me" and "well I suck but this still is in the bag!" and "wtf nothing makes sense" and "well, hell, everything else makes less sense, let's do this." Could be worse, though! Not having to care about you or feel guilty that I'm putting off MoosyDoosy anymore is kind of nice, and goodmorning being scum means I don't have to be mad at her.

Also, I think we are going to win? With luck I won't even have to fight for my life first.

Why?

I was just thinking about what I can deduce from the fact that you're talkative. I believe GM can be too. If I were to paint a profile that fits the scenario of you being scum with GM in my head, I'd imagine your PT correspondence with the IC isn't limited to the standard "play as if you were town" advice, no. I see you two concocting even before the beginning.

I used the fact that you said you probably coordinated with GM more than her scumpartner in the PT, to check the scenario for realism. It makes sense for you to say that if you two decided to have a bunch of interaction even before the game started, in order to discourage people from thinking it's likely that you're scum together.

Which makes this:

I think OceanWind's failure to get into quicker more interactive discussions with other players is a bad side-effect of that "make a huge post once a day" approach. That's another reason I wish he'd switch to smaller more frequent posts, yeah.

a proactive attempt to pave the way for holding the frequent-interaction style to a higher regard, thus further fighting suspicion that you could be scum with GM.

FOS

: Ether.

[Ether]

...

That doesn't make any sense.

[LoHa]

Then I suggest you bring some quality, alignment-indicative and unexaggerated reads to the table.

It's the best way for town to bounce off the lynch spectrum and scum to fumble.

[Sakura Hana]

I literally dont like Ether's GM defense on Day 1, on top of that Ether says that she thought GM was a PR which doesnt connect with her GM is scum only if im scum.

[Ether]

I didn't think that

then

, obviously. I thought that when she was sticking to the LoHa wagon when it didn't make any sense. I thought LoHa was likely to be lying--I thought he was scummy, obviously, and claimed power roles are

more

likely to be scum, not less. The fact that it's suboptimal to lynch them doesn't change the fact that about 24% of town players in a Matrix6 game are power roles, and the odds of a caught scumbag on Day 1 claiming a power role is probably a lot higher, or that the bulletproof claim in particular felt like the most stereotypical scumclaim to me. But the fact that she wasn't even bothering to vote someone else made me wonder, "What the hell? Why is she doing that?" and then it got into my head.

(I was also looking out for MoosyDoosy for the same reason, which was less obvious in some ways and more in others--he didn't have the same kind of heat, but on the other hand there really was no good reason at all to defend him from OceanWind's questioning, while I genuinely did see a few things from goodmorning that I felt were townish.)

The thing with you and goodmorning was just an unpleasant coincidence. I still don't really regret it, it got me a townread on you, and I don't feel like my rationale for going for you over her was wrong. But any refusal to vote goodmorning at that point was 100% natural wrongness on my part, unhampered by any weird gambits.

[Sakura Hana]

Oh yeah im pretty sure scum would LOVE to get a PR lynched by stating they dont believe them, if i was a Town PR with a counterclaim i'd still wait until the next day, GM even agreed with my thing about claiming and continued to vote LoHa, why couldn't you see something as simple as that instead of "OH SHE MUST BE A PR!" Sounds like really convoluted reasoning for not voting her.

[Sakura Hana]

Furthermore last time i saw an experienced player in a Newbie game continue pushing a claimed PR on D1 by stating they didnt believe them, take a wild guess what they flipped (Hint: they flipped scum)

[Ether]

Because she was blatantly getting nowhere, it was completely obvious that it wasn't going to happen and she was still holding on anyway. And her alignment wasn't as obvious at the time as you're making it out to be. There wasn't a wagon on her yet at the time, there were a few scattered votes and no one else had quite decided where to go next yet either.

Even if I don't get into an argument about how my play would have been different if I was scum--

hers

sure as hell would have been if I'd have a line to her.

And...okay? I don't share your experiences, I don't think the same things you do. You don't need to convince me why goodmorning is scum anymore, her role's right there.

[Sakura Hana]

And...okay? I don't share your experiences, I don't think the same things you do. You don't need to convince me why goodmorning is scum anymore, her role's right there.

Cool, but i wasn't talking about GM in that sentence.

[Ether]

Yes, I got that.

[Sakura Hana]

I was more talking about these posts:

I think LoHa's play, especially his early play and his decision to claim bulletproof in particular, would look different with SilverWolf as a partner.

As for the bulletproof thing, I think bulletproofs are both the most stereotypically tempting fakeclaim for newbie scum, and also a trap because of what Sakura said about how a real one doesn't really lose anything for counterclaiming.

I was actually kiiiiiiiiind of tempted to talk about just lynching him without a counterclaim, but it seemed like a hassle and I already think the game is broken if he's scum whether he gets counterclaimed or not. And I'm not positive an experienced player would account for people thinking like that.

There's a 2/3rds chance that there is no bulletproof in this setup to counterclaim. A cop shouldn't counterclaim and a doctor shouldn't either; trackers and gaolers are compatible with the claim. It's true that there's only a 1/6th chance that he's lying and there's no role in this setup that COULD counterclaim him, but that isn't the framework we're working with.

Also, we aren't actually lynching him yet. We are assuming he's scum, and we'll lynch based on likely partners.

[Ether]

This is stupid.

[Sakura Hana]

On another note when did your read on Ocean Wind change from this:

I'd appreciate you joining me on OceanWind, by the way!

Then we would have two votes on OceanWind.

To wanting to lynch lordj based on "being connected to LoHa":

lordj - Could be scum? I can see a lot of things tying him to LoHa. Some of those things were actually influencing me townreading him before LoHa's claim, but like SilverWolf noted the veteran thing sort of bothers me for that.

Then vote lordj in a post where you talk nothing about him, so i assume you're still thinking that he's "tied to Loha":

Moosy's stance on LoHa is the main thing that's kept me back. I could be wrong about him, but I don't think he's a good lynch for today. I don't think I can elaborate much.

I don't think Mightymandarin's really been looking for scum at all, he's just coasting on that paranoia. But then I direct something critical his way and he says something paranoid again and all of that just melts. His new characterization of me is contradictory, kind of insulting and most of it is completely wrong, but at least it's more than "she seems logical, THAT DOESN'T MEAN SHE'S NOT SCUM, I BET SHE'S SCUM." Bluh. I think he's town, yeah.

Rest assured that my behavior toward goodmorning has never for a second made my life easier in any way. I think goodmorning/SilverWolf was/is TvT, yeah. I think SilverWolf is someone who gets bothered when people scumread her, even when it doesn't make any political sense for them to do it. (And she's expressed the same misgivings here already.) I don't really think anyone's suspicion toward goodmorning is scummy, exactly, including yours. The reasons for her reads don't really make sense to me either.

I mean Sakura flipping out earlier than that. The exchange that got SilverWolf to unvote her (404) also made me realize that it was probably wrong. I think I was figuring out on my own, but that push helped.

If Mightymandarin thinks my involvement is bad, then that's a double standard, plain and simple.

I'm gonna

unvote; vote: lordj210

. Dunno.

So where did your scumread on OceanWind vaporize to?
In addition, another interesting thing i found on your ISO, which is also one of the things bothering me a lot is your latest posts regarding GM:

I don't think goodmorning is scum.

Which puts me in a weird position, because I think I'm already tied to her in some people's minds, and I'm scared that defending her will just make it worse.

^ This looks to me incredibly self-conscious

goodmorning - I think if she were scum she wouldn't have dug herself so deep, unless she seriously thought she could get a no lynch. I don't think she'd still be voting LoHa as scum. (Although 698, so I don't even know.) I get the vibe that I realized she was on the verge of everyone piling onto her before she did, which is...probably a town tell on her part? Also I don't think she's scum with LoHa, since everything else I said here is a pretty recent development.

^ Keeps trying to persuade ppl from lynching GM.

Even though I feel like if she WERE scum, she had so many smarter moves than what she actually did.

Ugh.

^ This happened right after the hammer.

Dunno all these posts connected, give me a feeling that you're GM's most likely partner, not to mention your "let's vote sakura instead of GM because GM's only scum if Sakura is" you'd think you'd be voting me today since GM flipped scum, your OceanWind read vaporized into thin air, and suddenly Lordj's the likely partner of GM, when he before was the likely partner of LoHa and now can't be.

[Ether]

OceanWind coming back softened me on him, and also, I started the lordj wagon expressly as a counterwagon. I

wanted

a wagon I thought other people would join, including goodmorning, who sure as hell wasn't doing anything to help herself. I don't think OceanWind is scum now, either, since he started the goodmorning wagon, and I feel like his behavior toward me would be different if he'd known for sure that goodmorning would be scum.

Obviously I don't think you're scum with goodmorning anymore! It's completely obvious to me that you're town.

Like I

keep saying

, lordj is process of elimination. I have stronger reasons to think everyone else in the game is town, and I've given those reasons, so that leaves him.

[Sakura Hana]

Good to know that you replied to everything but your connection with goodmorning.
Either way i know you've mentioned multiple times why you didn't want to vote goodmorning and what not.
I just don't think those reasons are any good, and i think, they are more than likely, fake.

[Ether]

Do you think I made up this whole "I thought she was a power role" line after the fact, or consciously decided to fake it the whole way through?

Because I

know

how stupid it looks, and if I'd actually known she'd flip scum I could have been a hell of a lot more graceful about it.

(Or broken down ages ago, but no one likes selfmeta, so let's just keep pretending I'm a mastermind who can fake this. Whatever.)

And if I'd been daytalking with her, she would have at least had the sense to counterclaim.

[SilverWolf]

Furthermore last time i saw an experienced player in a Newbie game continue pushing a claimed PR on D1 by stating they didnt believe them, take a wild guess what they flipped (Hint: they flipped scum)

This is probably the best point you have against Ether.

3 people were pushing to lynch LoHa-GM, Ether, and Moosy. If I'm wrong, correct me please.

Moosy is an uncc'd PR. So yeah, this point makes sense. I really could not see why town would lynch a claimed BP considering how helpful that would be to scum.

I mean, at least not right away. Give a cc a chance to occur. Not even being willing to consider he's town PR was off.

[SilverWolf]

And if I'd been daytalking with her, she would have at least had the sense to counterclaim.

This is something I would of done. I would of either cc'd LoHa and claimed that's why I wanted him lynched and gotten him lynched or said I was the JK and gotten that PR out before I died.

But it's WIFOM to suggest this is what you for sure what you would have done with daytalk.

[SilverWolf]

I'm trying to figure out if newbie scum or experienced scum would of taken a shot at LoHa last night.

I mean, that really was a bad shot. A certain kill and one less townie around would of been better. At least with only one scum alive. I guess this is WIFOM also but still.................