Blitz 3: Dead of Winter Mafia - Game Over

[Davsto]

Fist

VOTE: davesaz I AM THE TRUE DAVE

[Davsto]

I have a gut ping on dave's 37 being scum, too, but it's just gut.

Can we have people referring to davesaz and me (Davsto) with our full names? Otherwise I see "dav" or "dave" and go "wait shit what have I done oh wait wrong dav(e)"

Would comment further but school.

[Davsto]

Alright, imagine I was a stupid idiot who didn't understand anything. Or that I was in the Dragon's Den/Shark Tank and that I'd give you money if you sold this to me.

Sell this "obviously scum" thing on Silver Bard to me.

PEdit whelp

[Davsto]

That being said,
VOTE: A Royal Saint.
While my scumread's weaker, this wagon's larger.

Seriously though, while I went all "whelp" on this earlier, this is weak as fuck. Changing your vote to a weaker scumread because they had one more vote on them? Rather than, I don't know, actually pushing the one you're more certain of?

[Davsto]

VOTE: Ranger

My vote on that dude I showed suspicion of. Might as well park it on someone I have actual feelings towards overnight.

[Davsto]

Davsto, is changing a vote off a stronger scumread and onto a lesser scumread really that bad considering the setup and time constraints? It's sometimes necessary to compromise.

Not on the first day of a three day limit.

If you think Ranger is scum, do you think her breaking the rules and saying her secondary wincon on the first page was fake?

Well I certainly think reading him as town for it is a bad idea. I find that town would probably want to keep it secret even if they didn't know that you weren't allowed to say it to avoid policy lynches on them for having some terrible one, whereas scum would totally try to fake one for towncred.

[Davsto]

I'm questioning you because that alone makes me ~90% sure Ranger is town. I think that if scum!Ranger was trying to fake a post restriction, they would've understood that scum don't have secondary wincons, and deduced such a rule would probably exist to prevent a potentially gamebreaking massclaim d1. Or at least, they would've worried that they could be outed by the fact that they didn't have a secondary wincon to claim easily, and possibly asked / tried to investigate how to stop this. Also I think that Ranger deliberately breaking the rules to appear town is a very unlikely scenario.

Is it possible he knew the rule existed but didn't realise that faking/lying about it wasn't allowed? Idk. But I'm not gonna treat it as a towntell, that's for sure.

What do you think of Klingon's implied post restriction?

It's a pain in the ass.

[Davsto]

Can I ask who said that the post restriction is Kling's secret wincon? That seems like a logical leap.

[Davsto]

A post restriction?

[Davsto]

As in, in the same way someone might be a Cop, part of their role.

[Davsto]

With a look at his ISO, I can get on board with a gameplay vote.

VOTE: gameplay506

[Davsto]

That's L-1, fwiw

[Davsto]

Is it bad that I was expecting that to be a gambit?

[Davsto]

Well this new deathless setup of Mafia certainly is interesting.

[Davsto]

11 players and 2 zombies would require some kind of balance for scum.

I mean, surely the mod-proclaimed anti-town wincons that all members of town have (and that both members of scum are aware of allowing them to be used to their advantage) plays some part in that, don't you think?

[Davsto]

@Titus, I think the CD has carried over votes from yesterday, as I have not voted anyone yet today.
UNVOTE:

Well this new deathless setup of Mafia certainly is interesting.

Do you think that the scum attempted to make a kill last night or decided not to?

Almost certainly attempted a kill. No reason not to when there's 13 players alive. My best bet is a Doc protected their target, and given that gameplay appeared to be unlynchable, my guess is that they wanted to get rid of him via nightkill. Keep in mind that in some cases, the secondary wincons might give away hints to the role, so there's a good chance they know more about gameplay's role than us; they probably have some idea as to whether he's one-shot or just flat out unlynchable.

[Davsto]

Oops, I forgot you were Double Voter. I really need to pay more attention before coming out with logic like that.

[Davsto]

What?

[Davsto]

Because there was no kill last night so likely a Doc protect? And I could see why scum would want to kill a lynchproof. At least, until I remembered that Royal Saint is Double Voter and a much more likely kill target.

[Davsto]

People who are wondering why gameplay would let a wagon form on him when he's lynchproof seem to have forgotten that a certain mechanic exists in this game.

Expedience's meta reads are crap, considering this game I was "so engaged" in contained me making at least two "I don't have the effort, I'll get around to this later" posts. Also, I didn't have tonsillitis whilst playing that game.

Unsure if Expedience is just not the best at using meta or is purposefully meta-reading me poorly to try and get a cheap push on me.

VOTE: Expedience

[Davsto]

@Davsto -- Please respond to my prior post.

I can try to sort them in order if you want but it won't be that informative.

Town

Expedience
The Silver Bard
A Royal Saint
pisskop
Firebringer (replaces gameplay506)
Klingoncelt
Ranger
The_Jester
Makoto Nanaya
Scorpious
hiplop
davesaz
Davsto

Scum

Makoto / Scorpious would be a nullish kind of area below which slight townreads become slight scumreads.

I actually have a lot of townreads, but I think that's good because there are only 2 scum in this setup.

That was @Firebringer --sorry I wasn't clear. I was trying to find a way to communicate with Firebringer and get a read on them through it. Nice to know where you stand though.

Going to try to sleep again.

...

[Davsto]

Trying to dissuade people on my wagon is a waste of time. Scumhunting is a much more productive use.

[Davsto]

Expedience's meta reads are crap, considering this game I was "so engaged" in contained me making at least two "I don't have the effort, I'll get around to this later" posts. Also, I didn't have tonsillitis whilst playing that game.

Unsure if Expedience is just not the best at using meta or is purposefully meta-reading me poorly to try and get a cheap push on me.

[Davsto]

OMGUS is just a way of casting doubt on someone who just happens to be voting someone who voted them, and to invalidate the reasoning. If you actually read, you'll see there's an actual reason for my read (i.e., he seems to be purposefully misinterpreting my meta as an excuse to scumread me, ignoring the fact that there are different circumstances etc etc.). Your willingness to discredit it as OMGUS to attempt to cast shade on the Expedience wagon and for a reason to scumread me is worrying.

[Davsto]

Okay, Royal, let me lay this out for you. He's saying I'm not as "involved" as I was in the game I played with him. This game contained such things as:

Me voting the wrong person after mixing them up,
Several posts involving me neglecting the game,
Me fucking up postwalls,
A really bad hammer on Expedience himself...

The list could go on, but these are some of the things I did while in the game while Expedience was alive. He's just stating a meta of "oh he was more involved" without referencing the game in question, in the hope that people will just go along with it, whereas those things above aren't particularly involved, in my opinion.

(also, there's the fact that I currently have tonsillitis which naturally makes me play worse but it's not his fault he doesn't know)

It's not just a bad case, it's a case that is a flat out lie and Expedience should know this. That's why I'm voting Expedience.

Now, are you going to continue to accuse me of OMGUS just because I'm voting someone who just happens to be voting me, or are you going to stop tunneling and consider my case on Expedience?

[Davsto]

I'm not sure. There's only two scum in this game. Best to focus on one.

[Davsto]

Exactly, it's easier to focus on one, so I don't end the day going "arrrrggghhh which one should I lynch".

I'm not too bothered about those who townread him since I didn't properly present the full case until just now (and Royal Saint has gone interestingly silent now that's happened). Royal Saint is making me worry but with only two scum I think they'd avoid defending each other and chainsawing like that. Probably.

[Davsto]

Null. It could be town because Double Voter is usually town, but in a game with 11:2 T:S it makes sense for scum to have a lylo accelerator. I'm gonna avoid reading into it.

[Davsto]

Firebringer - No result as in "went nowhere" or no result as in you got "no result"?

[Davsto]

Sorry, I didn't know that there were RL reasons that you'd disappeared.

[Davsto]

Because, shock horror, I didn't realise that post existed?

Vague town meta read is vague and crap.

[Davsto]

I mean that entire post is projection. You just quote something I did and find a reason I'd do it as scum.

Also, defensiveness isn't a scumtell, OMGUS isn't a scumtell (and isn't what I did).

[Davsto]

But stuff like when I put the vote on Ranger before I went to bed, you immediately jump to paint it as the potential scum motivation rather than me, you know, wanting to vote Ranger.

I never said it was all meta, don't misrepresent me, I just said your meta case on me was a flat-out lie.

[Davsto]

1) I'd rather just Expedience be lynched but... I guess.
2) I'll avoid opening that can of worms until after Expedience flips. Speculating partners ahead of time rarely ends well, especially when I have basically no other scumreads.

[Davsto]

I should probably include this which I forgot to mention earlier:

Can I ask who said that the post restriction is Kling's secret wincon? That seems like a logical leap.

I understand the rule against claiming / hinting post restrictions, so I won't go too far into this. I will just say that, unless Davsto has both a post restriction and an unrelated secondary wincon (which I don't know whether he does or not and he shouldn't claim), I consider it more likely that Davsto made this comment with scum knowledge of every secondary wincon than just with the town knowledge of his own.

I'd argue that you instantly assuming that it was Kling's secondary wincon is more likely to come from scum with knowledge of the wincons, since I imagine most players instead assuming that it is just, you know, part of the role.

[Davsto]

9-19 14-15 15-14-5 5-12-19-5 19-5-5-9-14-7 8-15-23 5-24-16-5-4-9-1-14-3-5 9-19 19-3-21-13-13-25

25-5-1-8 9 4-15-14 20 6-9-14-4 8-9-16-12-15-16 20-15-23-14 2-21-20 9 3-1-14 19-5-5 8-9-13 2-5-9-14-7 13-9-19-12-25-14-3-8 2-1-9-20

"IS NO ONE ELSE SEEING HOW EXPEDIANCE IS SCUMMY

YEAH I DON T FIND HIPLOP TOWN BUT I CAN SEE HIM BEING MISLYNCH BAIT"

I'll work as Fire's translator

My problem with Expedience is his "scumhunting" on me doesn't seem like scumhunting. Rather than giving off an atmosphere of trying to figure out if I'm scum, he's giving off one of trying to make it look like I'm scum and trying to paint as many of my actions scummy as he can.

I guess I can compromise on hiplop, but don't expect that unless it gets to the point where there would be a no lynch otherwise.

[Davsto]

23-5 19-5-18-9-15-21-19-12-25 8-1-22-5 5-9-7-8-20 8-15-21-18-19 23-5 13-9-7-8-20 14-15-20 7-5-20 1 12-25-14-3-8

"WE SERIOUSLY HAVE EIGHT HOURS WE MIGHT NOT GET A LYNCH"

[Davsto]

Well if you and me vote hiplop then that's L-1, but I just want an Expedience lynch so bad.

[Davsto]

yours is one that players seem to have the most interest in.

Are you using fear tactics to get me to vote hiplop? Maybe I was right about you.

[Davsto]

Person who shot Expedience should say so.

[Davsto]

(with a secondary wincon)

Yeh, I can get with this wagon. Don't see town saying this; they know they all have a secondary wincon and shouldn't feel the need to explicitly say it.

VOTE: Mako

[Davsto]

Ranger is town. He knows why.

[Davsto]

I'm fine with massclaim. I won't be using my role (and didn't last night either) because more deaths isn't good.

I won't claim yet but if people want me to go first, I shall.

[Davsto]

Well I was given a gun the previous day, and I was the one to shoot Davesaz.

Wait what

Whaaaat?

Is there another gun-donator in this game, or is someone redirecting my actions?

[Davsto]

Okay, shushing.

[Davsto]

Jester, who do you popcorn to?

[Davsto]

Choose who claims next.

[Davsto]

Well I was given a gun the previous day, and I was the one to shoot Davesaz.

Wait what

Whaaaat?

Is there another gun-donator in this game, or is someone redirecting my actions?

Okay so apparently I forgot who my action was directed towards here, oops. Ignore this. Forget I made this post, I'm a fooooool.

[Davsto]

I claim, Sparky the Dog, I'm a compulsive gun giver. Each night, I must give one player a gun. The next night, they may shoot.

N1, gave it to Ranger. He shot ARS. This is why I knew he was town; claiming vigilante after getting a gunshot to draw a nightkill is townie as shit.
N2, gave it to Firebringer, who shot davesaz who was scum, confirming himself as either town or crazy (The reason I was confused is because I seem to remember giving it to Expedience for some reason so I don't know what happened there brain-wise).
Last night, I didn't give it to anyone (I didn't realise it was compulsive until I checked the Role PM to start claiming) so randomised. PMed mod, apparently I gave it to Klingoncelt, which is great to know.

[Davsto]

But there's a difference between crazy and shooting-your-scum-partner crazy.

[Davsto]

Like seriously, who as scum would literally kill their scum partner as a gambit to look town?

[Davsto]

(the joke is that I did it in one game just to inform those of you who are unaware )

[Davsto]

Jester, what format do your results come in?

[Davsto]

I'm gonna go with Occam's Razor and say that Firebringer probably didn't use my shot to kill his scum partner last night, by the way.

[Davsto]

I'm gonna go with a madcap theory that pisskop is town, Jester is town, and that Klingoncelt is the last scum. Who's with me?

VOTE: Klingoncelt

[Davsto]

I'm gonna go to sleep now and leave my vote here. My reasoning for both Klingon and Jester being town is super duper moon-logic but I wouldn't be surprised if it's right.

[Davsto]

a gun giver who is probs not handing out guns anymore.

Compulsive though.

[Davsto]

So I think I have solved the game. Good job on shooting davesaz FB.

So here is the solution:
Davsto is confirmed town (99% certain) for giving the gun to FB night 2.
FB being the only one able to shoot davesaz according to Davsto's list confirms him as town as well (99% as well, I cannot believe scum shoots scum here for towncred, so if FB did this and is scum and wins I'll salute him).

Kling got a gun.
pisskop claims that he is CPR doc and can kill or heal during the night.

The_Jester claims to be a cop, who have checked pisskop and got a guilty on him. This would normally mean we lynch pisskop if we believe The_Jester or we lynch The_Jester if we believe that he is lying. But here is my plan:

You guys lynch me today.

Then pisskop kills Kling.
Kling kills The_Jester.

If The_Jester is the final scum it doesn't matter who he targets. Kling will kill him anyways and the game is over.
If Kling is scum it doesn't matter what she does as pisskop kills her anyways.
If pisskop is scum it gets abit trickier. The_Jester dies so he is out anyways. Then pisskop can chose to kill Kling, it will show in the flavor of the nightkill that she was killed by zombie and he is anyways up against two confirmed townies and get lynched. If he kills any of the other two it will show up in the flavor that the nightkill was done by a zombie and Kling and the remaining confirmed town can just lynch pisskop. If he no-kills he will have been caught in a lie as Kling is still alive.

I don't think there is a theoretical way scum can escape if we do it like this. If there is a hole in my logic here please let me know, cause I think this will win us the game.

If Kling is scum she can use my vig shot to kill herself and thus the CPR Doc will keep her alive.

[Davsto]

No, my gun giving is actually compulsive. I have to do it every night. I-forgot-to-give-an-action-last-night-thus-it-was-randomised-to-Kling compulsive.

[Davsto]

Scum can kill and use their night ability.

[Davsto]

I will be giving my gun to people I feel are town from now on, last night was just a bit of a hitch because I forgot. If there's a chance that Kling could be scum (and I do think there is) then today's the best day to get rid of her, because a scum with two nightkills for a night is bleh.

[Davsto]

Fire, pisskop almost certainly isn't scum.

[Davsto]

A Royal Saint, Firebringer, hiplop, Expedience, and The_Jester have won.

I won too, right? Met secondary wincon (gun killed ARS) and was Town.

[Davsto]

Well, my wincon would basically 99% require an extra nightkill on town so it was definitely scum-sided.

[Davsto]

Honestly, the kill on me was a terrible idea by scum, as I was the only person certain not to have the gun.

I figured that Jester's wincon was to lie about a result which is how I felt that pisskop was town. Was wrong logic but oh well.

[Davsto]

Reckless Gun Manufacturer - Sparky the Dog

You made guns pre-Zombie outbreak and you still do. You think the world is better if all the good guys have just as many guns as the bad guys; forgetting the good guys don't know who to shoot.

You must give a gun each night. The player may shoot the next night.

Win Conditions: Lynch Scum and Accomplish Your Secondary Objective.
Secondary Objective: Have at least one townie die due to your guns OR give a gun to mafia.

(for my wiki page)