Newbie 1656 : Game Over

Sakura Hana · Post Post #1100 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:17 pm

taking note of MAXWAGONs going to treat LoHa as an Innocent Child for the purposes of VCA.

Spoiler: Day 1

In post 51, Nobody Special wrote:
goodmorning
- 2 -
Sakura Hana
, SilverWolf

LoHa
- 2 - lordj210,
goodmorning

SilverWolf - 1 -
LoHa

OceanWind - 1 -
MoosyDoosy

Not Voting: OceanWind,
Mightymandarin
, Ether

In post 101, Nobody Special wrote:
LoHa
- 3 - lordj210,
goodmorning
, Ether

goodmorning
- 1 - SilverWolf
SilverWolf - 1 -
LoHa

OceanWind - 1 -
MoosyDoosy

Not Voting: OceanWind,
Mightymandarin
,
Sakura Hana

In post 129, Nobody Special wrote:
goodmorning
- 2 - SilverWolf, OceanWind

LoHa
- 2 -
goodmorning
, Ether
SilverWolf - 1 -
LoHa

No Lynch - 1 - lordj210

Not Voting: OceanWind,
Mightymandarin
,
Sakura Hana

In post 200, Nobody Special wrote:Ether - 2 - OceanWind, lordj210

LoHa
- 2 -
goodmorning
,
Sakura Hana

goodmorning
- 1 -
MoosyDoosy

SilverWolf - 1 -
LoHa

Not Voting:
Mightymandarin
, SilverWolf, Ether

In post 487, Nobody Special wrote:
LoHa
- 3 -
goodmorning
,
MoosyDoosy
,
Sakura Hana

Sakura Hana
- 2 - lordj210,
LoHa

goodmorning
- 1 - SilverWolf
SilverWolf - 1 - OceanWind

Not Voting:
Mightymandarin
, Ether

In post 518, Nobody Special wrote:
LoHa
- 4 -
goodmorning
,
Sakura Hana
, lordj210,
MoosyDoosy

goodmorning
- 1 - SilverWolf

Sakura Hana
- 1 -
LoHa

SilverWolf - 1 -
OceanWind

Not Voting:
Mightymandarin
, Ether

In post 552, Nobody Special wrote:
LoHa
- 3 -
goodmorning
, lordj210,
MoosyDoosy

lordj210 - 1 - SilverWolf

MoosyDoosy
- 1 -
Sakura Hana

Sakura Hana
- 1 -
LoHa

SilverWolf - 1 - OceanWind

Not Voting:
Mightymandarin
, Ether

In post 685, Nobody Special wrote:
goodmorning
- 3 -
Sakura Hana
, OceanWind, SilverWolf

LoHa
- 2 -
MoosyDoosy
,
goodmorning

OceanWind - 1 - Ether

Not Voting:
Mightymandarin
, lordj210,
LoHa

In post 707, Nobody Special wrote:
goodmorning
- 4 -
Sakura Hana
, OceanWind, SilverWolf, lordj210

LoHa
- 2 -
MoosyDoosy
,
goodmorning

OceanWind - 1 - Ether

Not Voting: Mightymandarin, LoHa

Fun fact: This was the Vote Count right before the counter wagon started > OW, lordj and SW should all be conf town in a Sakura VCA, or should be, but SW's jump to the CW later looks sketchy as heck...

In post 742, Nobody Special wrote:
goodmorning
- 4 -
Sakura Hana
, OceanWind, lordj210,
LoHa

lordj210 - 3 - Ether,
goodmorning
,
MoosyDoosy

Not Voting:
Mightymandarin
, SilverWolf

In post 761, Nobody Special wrote:
goodmorning
- 4 -
Sakura Hana
, OceanWind, lordj210,
LoHa

lordj210 - 4 - Ether,
goodmorning
,
MoosyDoosy
, SilverWolf

Not Voting:
Mightymandarin

The one that sprung the counterwagon was Ether which means this could go either way, SW's jump to the counterwagon doesn't look too good for her. Specially considering how she's been on GM a lot since daystart.

In post 798, Nobody Special wrote:
goodmorning
- 5 -
Sakura Hana
, OceanWind, lordj210,
LoHa
, SilverWolf
lordj210 - 3 - Ether,
goodmorning
,
MoosyDoosy

Not Voting:
Mightymandarin

Therein lies the hammer, im p. sure there's 1 scum among SW/Ether.

Spoiler: Day 2

Ok I've gathered the data, will have some results soonish.

lordj210 · Post Post #1101 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:23 pm

what ive not a clue at what your going on about in the last post LoHa

lordj210 · Post Post #1102 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:25 pm

im inclined to agree the last skum s either SW or ther

Sakura Hana · Post Post #1103 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:36 pm

Scumputer results

OceanWind:

1.86

SilverWolf:

0.91

lordj20

0.57

Ether:

-1.11

lordj210 · Post Post #1104 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:48 pm

ummm english that i can understand please

Ether · Post Post #1105 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:03 pm

The scumputer is saying that, if you assume that each person has a random 2/9ths chance of being scum, then you can try to determine the probabilities even as people flip. It's flawed logic--in reality, those probabilities don't stay at 2/9ths. They change as people flip. There's a thread about it here.

If I'm getting this right, OceanWind is the scummiest and I'm the towniest. It's mostly weighing me as town because a.) I was alone a wagon with goodmorning for a while, and what would two scum be doing voting together, and b.) I wasn't on the goodmorning wagon, and the scumputer doesn't differentiate between wagons on town and wagons on scum. I can't take this seriously. There are plenty of good reasons to townread me; this isn't one of them.

Sakura Hana · Post Post #1106 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:08 pm

Yeah... i dont use the scumputer much, i usually do my very own VCA, but that takes longer and you guys were waiting on me sooo...

SilverWolf · Post Post #1107 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:13 pm

I don't really appreciate being called sketch for my voting around the GM lynch considering you guys were all there and you know what happened. VCA does not take that into account. If you guys decide to call me scum for that, I will fight you every step of the way.

SilverWolf · Post Post #1108 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:40 pm

Anyway, I'm gonna go ahead and hammer now as it looks like we've all said our piece and lordj is still the best choice IMO for today.

Hopefully, it ends the game but if he's town, I guess we figure it out tomorrow with two more flips. I really hope it does not come to that.

SilverWolf · Post Post #1109 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:41 pm

VOTE: lordj

lordj210 · Post Post #1110 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:49 pm

you just killed a VT . et it be know I AM NOT SKUM I AM VT. SW i bet ur next to go and it will end the game

SilverWolf · Post Post #1111 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:56 pm

In post 1110, lordj210 wrote: SW i bet ur next to go and it will end the game

Yeah, it will end the game if I go next-in a town loss since I am town. If it isn't you, we will figure that out tomorrow.

Sakura Hana · Post Post #1112 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:01 pm

In post 1105, Ether wrote:then you can try to determine the probabilities even as people flip.

Not really, there's an added boost to the chance based on ammount of living scum remaining, ammount of flipped scum on wagon and ammount of town on wagon, but it failed last time i used it either way.
SW's my most likely scum candidate, and i was going to comment on why, but she decided to cut off discussion with a hammer sooooo

SilverWolf · Post Post #1113 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:13 pm

That's nice, completely fuck over town by saying you are going to mislynch me in lylo if lordj is town here.

I will be so fucking pissed if that happens.

lordj210 · Post Post #1114 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:23 pm

SW you got town cred lynched ur partner you then hammered me you also was on the last lynch it makes since for it to be you, you can be pissed if you want but your dead

SilverWolf · Post Post #1115 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:31 pm

Sigh..................

Malakittens · Post Post #1116 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:33 pm

Official Vote Count

lordj210

(4): LoHa, Ether, OceanWind, SilverWolf

SilverWolf

(1): lordj210

Not Voting

(1): Sakura Hana

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-11-20 00:00:00)

Malakittens · Post Post #1117 (ISO) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:34 pm

Lordj210 was lynched. He was a vanilla townie.

Night ends in 48 hrs. (I'll add a timer in a bit)

Deadline: (expired on 2015-11-11 21:40:00)

Malakittens · Post Post #1118 (ISO) » Wed Nov 11, 2015 7:08 pm

LoHa died. He was a 1-shot Bulletproof townie.

It's now Day 4.

OceanWind · Post Post #1119 (ISO) » Wed Nov 11, 2015 7:14 pm

Lordj flipping town left me lost as to who the last scum could be. I re-read the game overnight and made a sliding scale of players from scummiest to towniest. I'm not confident in any of those reads though as whoever it is is playing well. I'm conflicted as to whether the optimal move is to actually discuss reads and or just straight up no-lynch due to the fact that discussion and declaration of reads will give scum a roadmap as to who to nightkill. I'd like to see the SE's weigh in on this.

Malakittens · Post Post #1120 (ISO) » Wed Nov 11, 2015 7:17 pm

Official Vote Count

Not Voting

(4): Sakura Hana, Ether, OceanWind, SilverWolf

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-11-28 01:10:00)

Sakura Hana · Post Post #1121 (ISO) » Wed Nov 11, 2015 8:05 pm

VOTE: No Lynch

SilverWolf · Post Post #1122 (ISO) » Thu Nov 12, 2015 2:07 am

VOTE: No Lynch

Do not discuss reads!! Do not discuss anything that will help scum figure out who to bring to lylo. Just No Lynch and move on.

Ether · Post Post #1123 (ISO) » Thu Nov 12, 2015 2:30 am

Generally I think no lynch is overrated.

But really, I was just terrified that LoHa

wasn't

going to get killed overnight. If there was any chance at all that he could have made the endgame decision by himself, I would have fought tooth and nail to just take my chances with my scumdar here in 4-player. In this case...I don't really think it'll help, but I don't have a very strong opinion on it. It probably wouldn't hurt. If we're going to do it either way, then yeah, minimizing discussion is probably the better option.

...Okay.

vote: No Lynch

Malakittens · Post Post #1124 (ISO) » Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:47 am

No lynch was lynched. It was a no lynch.

It's now N4.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-11-14 17:50:00)