Micro 544: A Midnight Sun, Part 2 ~game over~

[4nxi3ty]

"Was around the third hanging or so when things started changing. We didn't feel safer. It didn't feel like justice. Fear was out there amongst the trees and it couldn't be quenched."

"I felt safe."

"No shit Sherlock. You weren't there, fortunately. You came back from your trip after everything to us, what must've looked like a raving bunch of lunatics, and to a house burnt."

"Why did you want to be a part of this recording anyway? You weren't there?"

"It was my home too. My neigbours. My town. Sorry. I know I don't have much to offer here but I'll try to be supportive."

Suzune

(2)

- Soren, Jin and Mugen
Edgar Allan Pro (1) - Suzune
Iron Giant

(2)

- Edgar Allan Pro, My Other Head Is Scum
Soren (1) - Iron Giant
duppin (1) - Delenn

Not Voting: hi im Yakko, duppin

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline: (expired on 2015-11-15 10:09:02)

[Delenn]

This head is going to be sort of V/LA until Saturday night.

Klingoncelt

[Jin and Mugen]

Inductive reasoning is flawed because observed instances do not allows us to make claims about unobserved instances.
Just because his gut has been true in the past, doesn't mean his gut will also be true in the future.
Do you not have your own scum read?

I'm going to go ahead and adamantly disagree with this. While on a Meta sense, yes I would say you are right, but the thing is, our subconscious works miracles through Inductive reasoning and that's just how it is.

Rationally it doesn't add up. It is human custom that makes you think so.

I couldn't give a shit if it makes rational sense. People put "rational thought" upon a pedestal and think that it is the be all end all for figuring stuff out. I disagree with that pretty strongly. When you're a replacement in you very first game and you guess the setup roles for a C9++ day 2 as a VT because of what you subconscious tells you what the setup is, then we can talk about how rational thought had everything to do with figuring that out.

~Mugen

[Soren]

People only rely on their gut when they can't think rationally or, in better terms, have no rational basis to assume things.

[Jin and Mugen]

People only rely on their gut when they can't think rationally or, in better terms, have no rational basis to assume things.

Right, just like you assumed it was, how did you say it again(?), "It is human custom that makes you think so."

I don't think you really understand. I didn't read about this in some book and no one told me about it. It is by the fringe of things that I have been able to draw the conclusion that the subconscious is a powerful way to figure things out along with personal experience.

In all honestly I think YOU are the one who going by "human custom" and I am the free thinker in this debate.

[Soren]

I'm not saying that drawing from your gut or your subconscious is wrong, but nor is it entirely right. I'm just saying that I would go for rationality over a gut feel any day.

[My Other Head Is Scum]

This head is going to be sort of V/LA until Saturday night.

Klingoncelt

You better be here before days end!!

-Fire

[My Other Head Is Scum]

People only rely on their gut when they can't think rationally or, in better terms, have no rational basis to assume things.

Ummmm no.
People rely on their gut because they know something they can't explain.
For me, something pings me. I don't know what it is, and sometimes even trying hard to think about what it is I will force a conclusion on why it felt awful, but in psychology that could be all fabrication to justify you felt earlier.

Really, we don't understand why we think what we do all the time. We often use logic after the fact to back it up.

Any of this makes sense?
I trust my gut more than normal reads because it has a higher success rate for me than looking for typical 'tells'

-Fire

[Soren]

sure

[My Other Head Is Scum]

Anyway, I am heavily thinking the lynch is either Iron Giant or Suzune today, and I rather lynch Iron Giant. Even though I like both of those heads, I just think they are more scummy.

-Fire

[My Other Head Is Scum]

Soren is definitely town though, I don't know why anyone sees him as scum.

-Fire

[Edgar Allan Pro]

Edgar who is on the table for you?

Hey. I am not Varsoon.

I have consulted the Vrilsouls and I think IG and Delenn are on the table. My back to the wall, I would maybe vote Soren or MOHiS too.

I would vote Soren on the grounds of "playing against meta" and MOHiS on gut reaction (though I am loath to rely on that).

[Iron Giant]

Iron giant and suzune are both town and we will be lynching neither slot tyvm

We have less than 48 hours people, get your heads in this and pick a lynch. My lynch pool is soren/delenn/edgar

Jin you're breaking my heart, back me up on soren already dammit

[My Other Head Is Scum]

Iron giant and suzune are both town and we will be lynching neither slot tyvm

We have less than 48 hours people, get your heads in this and pick a lynch. My lynch pool is soren/delenn/edgar

Jin you're breaking my heart, back me up on soren already dammit

2 out of 3 of those I am strongly town reading.

What the hell is this!?!?!?!?!
THESE ARENT LYNCHES!

This lynch pile has to be at least 3 times bigger.

-Fire

[Shiro]

Who was dupping again ?

[Jin and Mugen]

Zoolander.

[Soren]

Jin what do you think of Iron's vote on me?

[Jin and Mugen]

I'm not saying that drawing from your gut or your subconscious is wrong, but nor is it entirely right. I'm just saying that I would go for rationality over a gut feel any day.

Gut is the first stage of rationality, and the stage before doubt can screw you over. As one of the most analytical people in the room, gut deserves some serious respect, if you know how to use it. Patterns may not be objectively rational in many cases, and you can manipulate objective facts to inspire doubt easily, but they are one of the most useful tools I've found to date.

(Anecdotal version, I've had one game where I've quite literally pushed only Townies on gut/meta, a couple games where I've generally been more of a detriment to Town than a help, and almost a dozen where I've done extremely well, including a multiball game where I can 4-5 scum out of seven pegged right off the first day, and only three misread Townies - only one of which was a serious scumread. Gut works.)

~Jin

[Jin and Mugen]

M'kay, I'm here-ish. I've got some stuff going on, so this is going to be briefer than my typical analytical posts.

Really, I'm going to vote hop to Soren, though I'm staying in contact with LQ on this one. Some of his posts have me wondering, now, but I'm honestly more comfortable with him than most. MOHIS has fallen considerably in my estimation, and may be a valid lynch now. I will compromise on Soren, MOHIS, and Suz. I'm backing off of Delenn now, and I don't really remember what was bugging me about HiY. It may have been a carryover from my MME thoughts.

Edgar is not a lynch option. I'm a little wary of him in spots, but everything thrown against him so far is not a case, and what he's done leans notably more Town than not. My only hesitation is that both of them vaguely remind me of this one guy who's rather good at manipulating me. I'm not letting him out of my sights, but I'm very, very uninterested in lynching him with present information.

Iron Giant is pretty firmly Town in my book, and probably my most consistent Townread. I've been skeptical at points of how easily Elb threw out Towncred, but all in all, it fits with his somewhat 'looser' Town style, if that makes sense? I may also be a little flattered (and a little self-conscious) due to the 'magic gut' post.

Suz isn't Deftown, but she's okayish, for her. She's my compromise lynch choice, TBH, but meh.

MOHIS has dropped considerably in my estimation, and I would lynch them as well. If Soren flips Town, I may death tunnel them for white knighting when I see little in Soren's meta to create such a strong read, particularly from Fire. If Soren flips scum, I dunno, I'm taking a step back.

In other words, I want to start the puzzle with a MOHIS or a Soren lynch, and I think Soren is still better.

Sorry again for briefness. I'm sure you'll be able to live with only a couple thousand characters from me.

VOTE: Soren

[Jin and Mugen]

Jin what do you think of Iron's vote on me?

Believable. It's a little silly, but I like people sheeping me more than I like them ignoring me.

[Jin and Mugen]

Anyway, I am heavily thinking the lynch is either Iron Giant or Suzune today, and I rather lynch Iron Giant. Even though I like both of those heads, I just think they are more scummy.

-Fire

Suz is my last ditch, get something useful out of the day lynch.

Why Edgar again?

[hi im Yakko]

Some other game has been eating my time. More importantly where'd duppin go. Haven't gotten to Iron giant yet. Read through other heads iso (kinda). Went from edgar to my slot at the times inhabitant mme; back to edgar then jumped on Giant. I think it was a fleeting thought on other heads part, from mypoint of view: an off hand comment like yeah sure why not. Not sure what to think about it. Initially I thought that they might be going for an easy lynch. But the move to Iron Giant and asking for an ultimatum in some post between them and Giant. It looks like wanting to cause chaos low key? Because the vote on giant sorta comes from nowhere reading the iso. Other head called them null then a couple posts later the off hand comment we'd be okay with their death then afterwards the vote. That and lack of scum hunting Giant. The latter makes me think the former.

I think I am equating bad play to scum play. Having trouble seeing the difference in this game. I have too many scum reads. My instincts are telling me other head my mind is saying sheep jin. Gonna follow my gut

@delen who are your town reads currently?
@jin do you trust Iron Giants' reads?


VOTE: MOHIS

[My Other Head Is Scum]

Why exactly me?
Just because I said I would be okay with a null dead?

Ummm okay

-Fire

[hi im Yakko]

Why exactly me?
Just because I said I would be okay with a null dead?

Ummm okay

-Fire

[sarcasm]You ask the questions, answer them...Do you also make tasty snacks?[/sarcasm]

[Suzune]

Okay, I'm back. Sorry for being quiet this week, I had a project due at work and it was eating all my time. I should be back into the swing of it again.

Jin, I read your exchange with Soren as very tense. Almost like it was a fight over whether or not gut reads outweigh logical patterns. When there is no other direction to go, it is said you are to go with your gut because it picks up things you do not process. However, I think it would be unfair to yourself and the team if you only read people based on gut. This is just my opinion on the fight not on who was fighting.

Seriously all my games have gone down to the bitter end of the phase recently. My vote is sitting on Edgar, I would not be adverse to lynching Delann today, however I could compromise on Duppin if need be. MOHIS is a very difficult read for me.