Mini 1730: Suikoden U-Pick GAME OVER


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Post Post #2150 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:09 am

Post by Varsoon »

"I only fight battles I can win. That's the secret to surviving."
-Dario,
Suikoden IV


VOTECOUNT 4.03


Klingoncelt (1):
wgeurts
FireKari (1):
Ranger

Not Voting (5):
FireKari, Klingoncelt, Elbirn, Reasonably Rational, Suzune

With 7 Alive, it takes 4 to Lynch.
Deadline
: (expired on 2015-12-06 07:00:00)
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Post Post #2151 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:02 am

Post by Elbirn »

When I have time I'm going to review suzune/ranger. I'm starting to wonder if I have a misplaced townread, klingon2ez.
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Post Post #2152 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:33 pm

Post by Klingoncelt »

Holiday prodge.

Too busy to trip on this game tonight.
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Post Post #2153 (ISO) » Fri Nov 27, 2015 1:48 pm

Post by FireKari »

Spoiler:
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Post Post #2154 (ISO) » Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:45 pm

Post by Suzune »

Back in a few hours :)
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Post Post #2155 (ISO) » Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:40 pm

Post by wgeurts »

My week has been hell but as its weekend Im finishin my final pages right now
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i agree we should have a rule against wgeurts
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let's have 2 rules against wgeurts
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Post Post #2156 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 12:42 am

Post by wgeurts »

Page 40, 47 more to go.
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i agree we should have a rule against wgeurts
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Post Post #2157 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 12:43 am

Post by wgeurts »

You know what, screw it.
I'll give the reasons I have so far and my findings.
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Post Post #2158 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 1:14 am

Post by wgeurts »

Most of the the stuff I've been gathering is associative tells and the likes, stuff like "they're scum-hunting and seem to be active" just don't cut it later game. Comparing their actions towards others and other's towards them give hard information, as well as analysing vote patterns. Here goes:

FireKari -
Town

FireKari's first behaviour towards LQ is slightly chainsaw-defending him by attacking Ranger in their post , yes it is weak but I'm noting everything I've seen down. They however then naked vote in post , which to be honest I wouldn't expect from a scum-partner. Them testing LQ on what "AUA" stands for is also pretty good, I really don't think that scum would just come up with this out of the blue. Especially not then asking their partner. Further on we have post which is a reaction to titus' claim. It doesn't seem to be from scum, as the scum would be slightly shitting themselves with Titus' role we now know was town. FireKaari on the otherhand is like "heck yeah, sweet" which seems to be more from a town-motivated mindset.
They also were on the LQ wagon not knowing titus actual role (as her claim was fake) which also earns them some townie points.
They also don't drop their rather unreasoned push on LQ when his situation is most dire, instead they simply hop back onto his wagon in post . They also had a scum read on BM out of the blue so that's also a thing.
Lots of small little things point to this slot being town, at least all the way up to page 40. I may read the rest later but I'm honestly a little distracted by RL right now.


Klingoncelt -
99.9% Scum

Well, klingon's early game play is lacking and contentless. Then we get an awful reads-list as the first petty bit of content we get from her in post . All three of her scum reads have been town and, oh, all the scum have been wishy-washy crap. Not to mention titus being the scum read suddenely after she becomes the main counter-wagon to LQ. Coincidence? You decide. (It's barely a reads list, there are only really 3 reads in it. Also notice how she drops these reads later on in the game.)
Then we have her randomly moving to Ranger during the blackout, not even one of her scum reads and she tries to justify it in post . Bleh, that post is utter bullcrap and what the heck is the "oops" for? What mistake did she make?
Finally there's an associative between LQ and Kling in LQ's post where she's all of a sudden town for her crap readslist she mad over 400 posts ago.

I've already pointed out how her voting pattern is awful so this all combined with the fact everyone elses voting pattern is so much better and everyone else having good town evidence (associatives blah blah) lead me to believe that if we lynch this piece of crumpets we will win.
Period.

Ranger -
Hard You-Better-Fudge-Believe-It Town

His ballsy way of pushing LQ early game is good, check posts and to check this for yourselves. I also doubt he would be bussing both his scum-partners and guess what he does? Push both BM and LQ. Example: post . He keeps these reads and doesn't deviate from them all the way to post and from then on until their lynches. He's either the hardest busser this site has or he's town.
He also stayed on LQ when the blackout happened instead of opportunisticly changing hos vote.

He also has one of the towniest voting patterns I've seen in a long time so there's also that.


Elibern -
Hard Town

He's pushing BM as early on as post and LQ kind of passively scum reading Elibern in is also a small town tell. Him also assuming Bright is some post-restricted player and the way he continues to handle this also point to him not being aware of Bright being LQ, yeah this could be faked by it seems natural. His post also seriously shows and explains for me that the way LQ handles him is weird and point to him being town now we know LQ is scum.
LQ also voting him with the anon-Bright is post is yet another town tell.
He also seriously pushes both LQ and BM and I doubt he would bus like this as scum. Especially on both partners.

Suzune -
Hard Town

LQ also votes Suzune with his anonymous vote and from what we've seen and know of LQ I doubt he bussed many scum with it. Weak town tell there. She pushes LQ in a good manner and the way LQ tries to make me doubt my read on her in post now feels icky and seems to point to Suzune being town. General good vibe from this slot (notice how my mind is wandering the further I cam in this post).

Now the VCA all fits the associative tells and other crumpets so why aren't we lynching Klingon yet. If everything seems to point to her maybe it is her?
I dunno, that seems logical
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i agree we should have a rule against wgeurts
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"
let's have 2 rules against wgeurts
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Post Post #2159 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 2:13 am

Post by FireKari »

@Wgeurts
If klingon were to flip town, who would your next guess be as to who is scum?

It is looking like kling will be likely be lynched today, but we still have a week left in the day phase. Might as well take a little time for everyone to get their thoughts out there. Might could come in handy later if we do lynch the wrong person.

Out of every1 alive, we think kling is the most likely to be scum, but we could possibly be wrong.
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Post Post #2160 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 2:27 am

Post by Drixx »

Wguerts ... Mason PT please.
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Post Post #2161 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:25 am

Post by wgeurts »

On it
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i agree we should have a rule against wgeurts
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"
let's have 2 rules against wgeurts
" -
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Post Post #2162 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:21 pm

Post by Klingoncelt »

In post 2158, wgeurts wrote:


Klingoncelt -
99.9% Scum

Well, klingon's early game play is lacking and contentless. Then we get an awful reads-list as the first petty bit of content we get from her in post . All three of her scum reads have been town and, oh, all the scum have been wishy-washy crap. Not to mention titus being the scum read suddenely after she becomes the main counter-wagon to LQ. Coincidence? You decide. (It's barely a reads list, there are only really 3 reads in it. Also notice how she drops these reads later on in the game.)
Then we have her randomly moving to Ranger during the blackout, not even one of her scum reads and she tries to justify it in post . Bleh, that post is utter bullcrap and what the heck is the "oops" for? What mistake did she make?
Finally there's an associative between LQ and Kling in LQ's post where she's all of a sudden town for her crap readslist she mad over 400 posts ago.

I've already pointed out how her voting pattern is awful so this all combined with the fact everyone elses voting pattern is so much better and everyone else having good town evidence (associatives blah blah) lead me to believe that if we lynch this piece of crumpets we will win.
Period.




I rarely have any substantial reads on Day 1. My first reads list was given under pressure from Titus. We were at the time hydra'd in another game, so we're friends. I thought she must be asking for the reads list in a SE/IC sort of way, trying to make me push myself, which was a bit odd, but w/e. But she kept getting weirder and weirder, she asked me if I was mad because I wasn't invited into the neighborhood - that's one of the strangest questions I've ever been asked in my life. It made no sense at all. Very little of her play did, and I'm
very
used to Titus' playstyle.

So during the blackout I refused to vote the way she wanted, fuck that Scum, I thought. (The "oops" was that I forgot to unvote him after the blackout was over, at the time he wasn't a superstrong Scum read.)

Your Lickety associative: "I lean Town on Kling for this post cuz its the first time I have ever seen them make a reads list and all I've seen of them is Scum," isn't an associative, it's actually true. Previous games we were in together he was Town and I was Scum. And I don't post reads lists on Day 1 because I don't do reads lists on Day 1. He was probably very surprised to see it.

A lot of the voting and other action throughout this site happens between 10am and 4pm eastern. I'm online evenings and late night, meaning I miss most hammers. In most games I generally come on to find a locked thread and 5 or 6 unread pages. :(

I like crumpets, can I have some at my misynching?
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Post Post #2163 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:04 pm

Post by wgeurts »

Klingoncelt you cannot call it a reads list. There were three reads and the rest was "they are being nervous" etc. Which is not a read.
Honestly I'm going to eat a flipping hat if you flip town and you can have your crumpets.
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let's have 2 rules against wgeurts
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Post Post #2164 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:04 pm

Post by wgeurts »

It may even be two reads as off my head I may have mixed in that you scum read pistachi0n.
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let's have 2 rules against wgeurts
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Post Post #2165 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:07 pm

Post by wgeurts »

It's also not like you were going to push them all anyway, not being around for a hammer doesn't mean you don't have the chance to push them. All your scum reads are town, all the flipped scum are in the wishy washy reads. That looks suspicious, especially considering how everyone else has pushed both.
I'm more inclined to go for the obvious answer saying your scum instead of being paranoid someone is playing a godlike scum game.
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i agree we should have a rule against wgeurts
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"
let's have 2 rules against wgeurts
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Post Post #2166 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:18 pm

Post by Elbirn »

So like

I'm busy but I really wanna give this game some loving

But I agree that klingon is likely scum and I kinda just want her dead today regardless.

Firekari should be in the "never lynch pile" imo, suzie and ranger both are super town but suzie fooled me before and ranger...idk what if she really is the world's hardest busser. Did we actually look at her reasoning for voting both of those two?
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Post Post #2167 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:10 pm

Post by Ranger »

You know, I'm waiting for people to post, but I don't really have much to say.
I think the lynch Klingon, blocking FireKari plan is the way to go, so am just waiting for everyone else to follow through on what they're already saying.
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Post Post #2168 (ISO) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:20 pm

Post by Elbirn »

Wait why are we blocking firekari when they're town

Silly ranger block suzie
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Post Post #2169 (ISO) » Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:19 am

Post by Suzune »

Okay, just getting home. First year I was in the states for Thanksgiving and my coworkers were like come stay with us. So I am home. Post coming~
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Post Post #2170 (ISO) » Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:35 am

Post by Suzune »

Here is where I am standing right now.

Early game I spend a lot of time thinking that RR might be scum. However, his logical reasoning and play style began to warm up to me. Their behavior has all been hunting trying to understand people's motives and powers and working towards the effort of the game. I believe there is little doubt in my mind they are scum.

wgeurts I was very judgmental to in the early game. I thought they were probably scum but they were so far down on my priority list. However, if there is a sleeper scum I still think it might be him. His early game was vastly hard to read and he had some moments where I wondered both what he was thinking and how it was getting there. However, it is always not really taken stage because there was so reason to really push it at the time, there were always someone bigger being scummier. So I think if it fails to be kling this is where it should be. So this is my weakest town read.

FireKari I believe is rather townie. They seem to actively scum hunt and weigh possibilities. Otherwise, there is not much of worry here town~

Elbrin I might actually have to think about. Because of my irregular situation early game of being in on the plan with Titus, Jeanne and Elbrin. I have kind of glossed over him and made the assumption that Titus could indeed choose another townie. Therefore, I regret to say that I had not thought about it until I started posting this. Honestly, I assume that if I had noticed something really odd i would have said something but...I regret I had not really thought about it.

Kling- I like you as a player, but I swear you are always mafia. This is really who I am left with. Through process of elimination it honestly must be you. His unvote though right before the hammer yesterday was interesting to me because he ended up upvoting on the mafia member. While that could have been just bad luck it set pistashion as the one would could have been hammered killing the townie. Honestly, the majority of the day one posts since wgeurts first scum read on him have been reactionary. Therefore, I think this is the way to go.
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Post Post #2171 (ISO) » Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:43 am

Post by Elbirn »

Suzune why are you evaluating the alignments of two claimed masons
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Post Post #2172 (ISO) » Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:46 am

Post by Suzune »

Because, I just made one for everyone.
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Post Post #2173 (ISO) » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:21 am

Post by Drixx »

Can't get hydra account to log in for some reason. Will pick up this and the prior post as soon as it's fixed (or Cerberus will).

Please do not end today until Cerberus and I give the all clear.
We've got a plan in the works and we need to make sure we leave the full details in the Mason PT in case we die. There are also parts of it we need to share in thread here. Please bear with us... we'll get it done after our DnD session tonight... even if I have to guilt trip the snot out of Cerberus to make it happen.
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Post Post #2174 (ISO) » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:34 am

Post by Elbirn »

Acknowledged, will twiddle thumbs and wait patiently

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