Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[toolenduso]

@dave and sword: what do you think of Moosy's #36?

[MoosyDoosy]

So his actions make him neither town nor scum for you?

Any thoughts on how Hawk's later posts? I have an opinion on them but would like to hear yours first to prevent introducing leading question bias.

I have a theory that the beginning of the game typically follows a pattern of events. The definitions of each event in that pattern are necessarily vague to allow for variations in the details, but my theory is that coming up with a model of early D1 in closed setups is entirely possible and that it will be accurate the majority of the time.

The basis for this concept is that up until a certain point in that pattern, the likelihood of finding scum based on their posts is going to be ridiculously small. Hawk hasn't reached a place in his posting yet that I would consider to be at all helpful in guessing at his alignment. So no opinions on him yet.

Put in a much simpler way: I don't see anything worth speculating on from Hawk yet. But we'll get there.

The point of the start of the game is to get out of it and the fastest way to do that is to form opinions on people and push those opinions.

[MoosyDoosy]

So share some thoughts. Who looks most suspicious right now?

[toolenduso]

Who looks most suspicious right now?

Sword, I guess. For an eager-to-please looking entrance.

But then there's his join date, which explains that entrance just as well as a scum role PM would.

Then there's the fact that we're in RVS, which also explains his entrance.

So yeah.

[davesaz]

@dave and sword: what do you think of Moosy's #36?

They can be dangerous assumptions to make, but it looks like genuine thoughts.

[davesaz]

Then there's the fact that we're in RVS, which also explains his entrance.

Just to clarify, you're referring to being in RVS at the time of the posts which are now being analyzed, right?
Most would say that we're talking about motivations and analysis now, which would mean it isn't random any more -- though there may still be pockets of quirk.

[toolenduso]

Just to clarify, you're referring to being in RVS at the time of the posts which are now being analyzed, right?

Yes.

Most would say that we're talking about motivations and analysis now, which would mean it isn't random any more -- though there may still be pockets of quirk.

Eh....I think we're straddling the line out of RVS a little bit. If you think of a wagon as having three votes or more then I

think

we've had an actual wagon or possibly even two so far, but I kinda feel like they weren't very serious wagons. Not even sure everybody has posted yet. And while Moosy has some conviction already, I do not.

[3dicerolling]

Vote Count: 1.1

Can you imagine the delicious, glazed goodness? The refreshing taste of a cinnamon roll followed by the thirst quenching punch of whichever liquid you desire to digest? Food for thought.

hawkleader3 - (4) Davesaz, Syndesis, Swordsworth, MoosyDoosy

L-3

Soapbar - (0)
FA_Q2 - (0)
MoosyDoosy - (0)
toolenduso - (0)
TheCow - (0)
Metrion - (0)
Swordsworth - (4) TheCow, hawkleader3, Soapbar, toolenduso

L-3

BirdythePhoenix - (1) iraonavp
iraonavp - (0)
Chaotic Neutrality - (0)
Syndesis - (1) Chaotic Neutrality
davesaz - (0)

Not voting: BirdythePhoenix, FA_Q2, Metrion

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

(expired on 2015-12-27 23:20:59)

[TheCow]

whoa wagons are happening
i should make an actual post later

[toolenduso]

whoa wagons are happening

Very much so, yes. Thoughts on Moosy specifically would be appreciated when you make your post.

[MoosyDoosy]

whoa wagons are happening

Very much so, yes. Thoughts on Moosy specifically would be appreciated when you make your post.

Moosy is pushing on the easiest wagons in the thread right now in an attempt to mislead the thread.

[MoosyDoosy]

Oh wait, that was such a Mafia oriented post! Oh wait, he's self conscious! Mafia!

[MoosyDoosy]

oh wait, he might be town screwing around! But he might have expected that as Mafia which is why he's acting that way!

[Soapbar]

whoa wagons are happening

Very much so, yes. Thoughts on Moosy specifically would be appreciated when you make your post.

Moosy is pushing on the easiest wagons in the thread right now in an attempt to mislead the thread.

Oh wait, that was such a Mafia oriented post! Oh wait, he's self conscious! Mafia!

???


I don't understand, it sounds like your mocking him but for what reason? I don't see anything particularly bad about Tool's play (though I fear it may lead to tunneling on his part because he seems to have a large focus on you).

Unless there's some comedic subtext I'm not absorbing here.

[hawkleader3]

Well hawkleader, you say this is the most boring part of the game and that you're eager to get it out of the way, so then you flop your vote on me? That doesn't strike me well.

The quickest way to get out of RVS is to vote random people and get a read on their reactions. Many people have already done so to me. I voted Syn and she seemed the one who was most actively scumhunting. I unvoted her, decided to vote someone else at random, and your name just happened to be there.

whoa wagons are happening

Very much so, yes. Thoughts on Moosy specifically would be appreciated when you make your post.

Moosy is pushing on the easiest wagons in the thread right now in an attempt to mislead the thread.

Oh wait, that was such a Mafia oriented post! Oh wait, he's self conscious! Mafia!

oh wait, he might be town screwing around! But he might have expected that as Mafia which is why he's acting that way!

So i have no clue what this happened. This little mishap/joke is either a scum slip or a bad mafia player. He gives me more reasons to vote him than Swordsworth.

VOTE: MoosyDoosy until I get a clear understanding of what just happened to him

and should we start the claims at L-2 or L-1?

[Metrion]

If we're still going with RVS::

VOTE: TheCow

Never trust animals with hooves, they can't shake on things.

----

Anyway, exactly what is scummy about having a chipper first post, Tool?

Not game related: Also are you fine with being called Tool?

----

L-1 is hammer zone. Perhaps claiming time would be best left up to the individual in question.

[toolenduso]

and should we start the claims at L-2 or L-1?

Wasn't aware that people did it at L-2 as a rule. My vote's for L-1, that way scum doesn't get info on town PRs unless it's totally necessary to prevent town from lynching a PR.

[toolenduso]

Anyway, exactly what is scummy about having a chipper first post, Tool?

Not

chipper

, exactly...more like anxious-disguised-as-or-perhaps-mingled-with-excited. Like "oh man it's my first time playing scum better do a good job! I'm gonna open with a joke!"

Like I said, not exactly solid reasoning, but hey I was asked to give thoughts :/

Not game related: Also are you fine with being called Tool?

I will consult my brand manager and get back to you.

Spoiler:

No but seriously tool is fine. There are scummers who still call me tool irl.

[toolenduso]

Not

chipper

, exactly...more like anxious-disguised-as-or-perhaps-mingled-with-excited. Like "oh man it's my first time playing scum better do a good job! I'm gonna open with a joke!"

Examples: paulw in Newbie 1561 and bjc in Mini 1559.

[TheCow]

Swords wagon: Vote one is me, RVS (13). I didn't personally mean anything by it other than the usual random voting, so k00l i guess. Hawke votes for Swords in retaliation for 24 (25). This is Hawke's second retaliatory rvs vote. Soap votes Swords in what I think is RVS. toolenduso votes for the sake of "waggins" (33)

hawk wagon: davesaz RVS vote. Cool. The u s u a l (11), Syndesis jumps on, looks like RVS -- no vote reason given (12). Guessing she wanted to move along with the random wagons, get things going. Something like that. Swords then votes in RVS --

at this time there is no Swords wagon

(24). Moosy sheeps the hawke wagon, citing Syndesis (though the citation was put forward in a joking manner) (30, 31)


Regarding hawke: first post was all like "hey guys, I'm new but not new lets have fun". Cool. Immediately jumps off of RVS soap and jumps onto Syndesis for what (I think is) fake OMGUS (14). Syndesis (jokingly) asks people to sheep onto the wagon and what not, hawke takes it seriously. Assumes the reason is the whole OMGUS thing (which isn't mentioned in Syndesis' post) (16)(20). Odd he isn't fighting a legitimate reason or whatever, but could have just been the tone or something, idk this guy -- never played with him before. Anyway, moving on. Hakwe jumps ship again and moves over to Moosy. This is not a very defensive maneuver at all, rather a more aggressive one (64).

Okay, after thinking through this, I have some theories, but I need a bit of info first. How good of a scum player is Hawke? His game sense? I haven't played with him, so I wouldn't know this detail -- kind of key for my theory.

[MoosyDoosy]

hawk may or may not be the most sensible person in the thread, but it's a pity that he's Mafia.

[MoosyDoosy]

On that note, how are you people's days going?

[toolenduso]

On that note, how are you people's days going?

p good. you?

@TheCow: do you have any thoughts on moosy?

[MoosyDoosy]

On that note, how are you people's days going?

p good. you?

@TheCow: do you have any thoughts on moosy?

I'm doing relatively okay. Normal day like any other I guess.

@toolenduso: do you have any thoughts on moosy?

[TheCow]

My thoughts on moosy are tied to my thoughts on Hawke. I'm mulling it over a bit more. Plan on thinking about it over food. I'll pop out the conclusion after that.

Every conclusion should be in two halves.