Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 3 - Game Over - Is this what happened?

[Skruffs]

Fits the theory
thanks Dos

fos again, alko

[dahen]

Skruffs: You still haven't told us about your ability. Sure, we have a doc, so if you think there's a reason to keep it hidden, you might survive the night. But otherwise, please share now so we can get a better picture of what's going.

[Skruffs]

? if it was effective for me to claim at this time. I'm waiting to see who everyone targetted last night, before i reveal more.

[DragonsofSummer]

Okay well should I claim my target now then?

[chaotic_diablo]

No, let's have al_ko claim his first.

[al_kohaulec]

I targetted DoS last night, and got that c_d and Ecto targetted him. I chose DoS because I was thinking that he would be a more likely target than BM with his role. Of course my results don't give us any new information either.


Also, unless if DoS's innocent result is on Skruffs, I'm finding him highly suspicious, and some of those reasons I'll be withholding until later this day, but I want him to claim at least a little bit more before everybody else claims all of their targets and everything.

Ecto, I'm curious, don't answer this before we hear from DoS and Skruffs, but do you have any additional abilities?

[DragonsofSummer]

Hey thanks for the save last night C_D!

I targeted Dahen last night, and as I said earlier got an innocent result.

[al_kohaulec]

Shoot, I just realized I misworded what I wanted to say... I didn't want you to claim your target until after hearing from Skruffs

if

Skruffs wasn't your target. Oh well, it was minor. But I still want to hear him say something more before the rest of us claim our night results. My reason is that after he knows everything about all of us (which he practically does by now), he can claim anything he chooses and we can't prove it one way or another.

[Mastermind of Sin]

*bump past closing spree*

[Skruffs]

Actually, your fears are misguided... As you would know if you had read my post more clearly. I am capable of clearing myself- if i wasn't, i would have claimed fully. Also, my theory is holding mostly true - and to quote Waddsworth himself, "Don't be ridiculous. If I was the murderer, why would I tell you all how I did it?"

That may not be the quote word for word, but you get the point.

[chaotic_diablo]

al_ko, are you absolutely sure I targetted DOS?

By the way, Happy Scumday to me!

[al_kohaulec]

Happy Scumday!

and those were the results I got.

Skruffs, I hope what you're being honest because I'm really skeptical here. And as for your question, why to gain your trust of course.

[DragonsofSummer]

Happy scum day c_d!!! Are you saying you didn't target me?

[chaotic_diablo]

Happy scum day c_d!!! Are you saying you didn't target me?

Nope, I'm not saying that. I'm not going to confirm or deny al_ko's result. I'm still thinking.

[dahen]

I targeted Dahen last night, and as I said earlier got an innocent result.

Well, I knew I was innocent already.

Ecto - Would like to confirm or deny Alko's statement that you targetted CD?

[DragonsofSummer]

I targeted Dahen last night, and as I said earlier got an innocent result.

Well, I knew I was innocent already.

Ecto - Would like to confirm or deny Alko's statement that you targetted CD?

Lol of course you did!

Also Al_ko is saying that Ecto, and CD targetted me last night. I was Al_ko's target if he isn't lying.

[Ectomancer]

If c_d didn't target DOS last night, then I must be insane, because nobody I target dies. This role sucks, whatever it is.

[Skruffs]

Lol @ al_ko
BUSTED!!!
Never ask caught scum for anything to be used to determine something. What possible reason would ecto, as scum, have for helping town by answering truthfully???

[Ectomancer]

What reason would I have to lie? If al_ko lied, it would make sense for me to expose him as one and get him lynched instead of me.
Once again I ask, who killed BM? My process of elimination left me with Ancalagon, which has been replaced by Skruffs.

[al_kohaulec]

Lol @ al_ko
BUSTED!!!
Never ask caught scum for anything to be used to determine something. What possible reason would ecto, as scum, have for helping town by answering truthfully???

What are you talking about?

[chaotic_diablo]

Alright, let's see where this takes me. For the purpose of my explanation, I'm beleive al_ko is a SK.

I thought back to skruffs central godfather theory, and I think it makes sense. It's quite possible that all SKs were allied to the godfather, but worked against each other for their own gains. Whether they are aware of each other is still debatable since it's obvious that if they did, they seem to have been backstabbing each other the entire game.

How this fits is that HC tried an unsuccesful attack on al_ko's watcher claim. He tried to exploit the fact that al_ko was selling out MBL to make himself look innocent. I believe HC

knew

what happened and tried to take advantage of it to make himself look better since it's the

truth

. HC's attack is my first point against al_ko.

My second point is al_ko's night two result. He was apparently roleblocked. However, as dahen is confirmed and he did not block al_ko that night, al_ko is either lying or we have a scum roleblocker around. With a mass claim revealing almost everything, I find the latter highly unlikely.

The third point is the mass claim.

I would say claims first, then you declare your result. Give scum a little bit less chance to... do something, I don't know what . But I think it'll be better to let others claim first.

He has no idea what benefits a mass claim will give us, yet he still insists on going through with one. I noticed this post before we mass claimed, but couldn't find anything to support my suspicions so I let it be.

The fourth point is his night three results. It can be easily fabricated. If al_ko is a SK capable of killing, then a kill that doesn't go through with all claims revealed makes for an easy connection: doc protected person I(al_ko) tried to target. I did indeed target DOS.
The second part of my fourth point is that it's possible al_ko never targetted DOS. Ectomancer's inability to kill as displayed by BM's tracker result is a slight assurance that he probably didn't kill Billy. That leaves al_ko. It isn't difficult to guess that a doc protected a claimed cop.

I'm still thinking, but if dahen's and skruff's night results say something different, I'm ready to discard my theory. I really have no proof or evidence other than my second and third point.

[al_kohaulec]

First of all, for my targets, I have successfully known who targetted Jack N1, and was confirmed by BM that I targetted Jack before BM said he was a tracker. And I also claimed he was the

only

person to have targetted Jack, which has never been denied. The third night, I admit could have been fabricated, but to attempt to fabricate it is a big risk. Ecto has no reason to tell the truth, and no reason to lie, other than to try to grasp a possible tie or unlikely win in this game. There were two good targets for you, one being BM, but I do agree that DoS was the better choice, and it's a good thing you did target DoS since he confirmed our roleblocker.

Also, with what you say in the beginning, it sounds like you think it's likely that the SK's know who the leader is or in some way know something about him (MBL), but that doesn't work out at all either. Let's assume MBL is the godfather of all of the SKs and I'm an SK and know who he is. If I knew that he was targetting Jack, that would imply nightly communication, in which case there would be much less crosskills and double targets than we've had. But even if there was some form of communication letting me know that MBL targetted Jack, then there's no explanation for me having targetted Jack as well. It doesn't make sense to try and kill somebody your leader is already killing, and BM confirmed that I targetted Jack. So if I was an SK, then I couldn't have any communication with MBL, which means that if I knew he targetted Jack and was the only person to have targetted Jack without being a watcher myself, then I must be an incredibly lucky guesser.

[DragonsofSummer]

Skruffs... will you give us your proof of being who you say you are, and proof you are town aligned?

Because I have an idea for what we can do today, and for the night, to maximize our chances of winning the game tomorrow, but I can't figure out where you fit in it without you confirming your role.

[chaotic_diablo]

First of all, for my targets, I have successfully known who targetted Jack N1, and was confirmed by BM that I targetted Jack before BM said he was a tracker. And I also claimed he was the

only

person to have targetted Jack, which has never been denied. The third night, I admit could have been fabricated, but to attempt to fabricate it is a big risk. Ecto has no reason to tell the truth, and no reason to lie, other than to try to grasp a possible tie or unlikely win in this game. There were two good targets for you, one being BM, but I do agree that DoS was the better choice, and it's a good thing you did target DoS since he confirmed our roleblocker.

The manner in which you presented your claim is strange. If you were protown, then you would realize that BM's investigation would be inaccurate. As a result, I don't find it likely that you would have blurted out your claim and result without prompt. If you were scum, then I'd bet you would be tricked by it and try to pass it off as something else. That is the more likely case and probably worked successfully given that BM wasn't a cop.

I don't have to say anything about your night three result since it can indeed be fabricated. It's a big risk, but that doesn't mean it's not possible. If I find any proof of fabrication, expect me to be all over it.

Also, with what you say in the beginning, it sounds like you think it's likely that the SK's know who the leader is or in some way know something about him (MBL), but that doesn't work out at all either. Let's assume MBL is the godfather of all of the SKs and I'm an SK and know who he is. If I knew that he was targetting Jack, that would imply nightly communication, in which case there would be much less crosskills and double targets than we've had.

I do believe that SKs knew who the leader was. Even with night communication, we have to take into account that it's a bunch of SKs with a godfather. I'm thinking they were probably just having a mutual relationship and planned to backstab each other at some point. Let's take a look at Ecto's post.

I never said I was out to make sure the town loses. I said I was out to secure a win, or at least a tie for me. Im not against the town, Im in it for me, so no, I don't agree to your plan. Right now I think scum is a far greater threat to my goals.

It's obvious Ecto is working toward his own goals. Especially when HC tried to compromise with him. There is definitely some sort of relationship going on, though it's not a strong one.

Another theory was that the the SK knew who the leader was, but cannot communicate. In which case, the godfather would send someone to kill and that person would be informed.

But even if there was some form of communication letting me know that MBL targetted Jack, then there's no explanation for me having targetted Jack as well. It doesn't make sense to try and kill somebody your leader is already killing, and BM confirmed that I targetted Jack.

Scum generally send in their scum members to do the killing. I'm still doubtful it was MBL who killed Jack.

So if I was an SK, then I couldn't have any communication with MBL, which means that if I knew he targetted Jack and was the only person to have targetted Jack without being a watcher myself, then I must be an incredibly lucky guesser.

That's the idea. You're extremely lucky.

The main idea is that all scum are working toward their own goals. They only work together to use each other. That's the only possible explanation for the crosskillings, double kills, backstabbing, and oddities going on.

[al_kohaulec]

I.

I do believe that SKs knew who the leader was. Even with night communication, we have to take into account that it's a bunch of SKs with a godfather. I'm thinking they were probably just having a mutual relationship and planned to backstab each other at some point.

II.

Another theory was that the the SK knew who the leader was, but cannot communicate. In which case, the godfather would send someone to kill and that person would be informed.

III.

Scum generally send in their scum members to do the killing. I'm still doubtful it was MBL who killed Jack.

IV.

The main idea is that all scum are working toward their own goals. They only work together to use each other. That's the only possible explanation for the crosskillings, double kills, backstabbing, and oddities going on.

Statement one is plausible, there's a leader with all of his SKs, and they can communicate, but the SKs want to kill each other. Statement two makes some sense in SK interaction, because if there's no communication, they won't know about each other and will want to kill each other. The problem here is that with the godfather being the one sending the kills, that doesn't account for any crosskilling or kills after his death. So Statement 2 doesn't work. Statement 3 depends upon the previous statements to be true in that the SKs know who the godfather is, but fails for the same reason as 2. Statement four talks about how the scum are working towards their own goals, which is reason for the cross kills and such. Well, they're all coming up as SKs, so it only makes sense that they would be looking out for only themselves. This actually fights more against the previous statements.

Let's take a look at Ecto's post.

I never said I was out to make sure the town loses. I said I was out to secure a win, or at least a tie for me. Im not against the town, Im in it for me, so no, I don't agree to your plan. Right now I think scum is a far greater threat to my goals.

It's obvious Ecto is working toward his own goals. Especially when HC tried to compromise with him. There is definitely some sort of relationship going on, though it's not a strong one.

HC's compromise, IIRC, was that they start coordinating the kills of any scum still alive and uknown to match the kills of whoever lives between Cedric and ecto. As a serial killer, once you're dead it's game over, you lost. So if you've lost, then any further attempts you make in the game depends a lot on who you are. It seems like Cedric prefers to help another SK win over the town, but ecto so far seems more helpful of the town, but admits he's in it for himself, so it's in his best interest to help the town find scum and keep lynches off of his back.




And I am really interested in what Skruffs has to say. I have a few thoughts of my own on how we can try to guarantee a win myself, but my own plan still has some flaws in it, and so I'm also interested in hearing what DoS has to say.