Newbie 1671 - Game Over (Scum win)
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tictac Mafia Scum
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ConvergentConclusion Goon
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I don't think Rask said that. But if he did, then it's possible it's a WIFOM situation (I did my research). I don't think there is a whole lot to be gained thinking about it.-
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ConvergentConclusion Goon
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Ok so I no longer think that plot is scum. His contributions are moving the game forward, and I doubt scum would do that to that extent.
UNVOTE: Plotinus
My vote won't be parked anywhere for now, as I need to find the time to read through people's ISOs and collect my thoughts first. I might be done today or tomorrow-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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rask pretty much outed himself by setting that up if it's fake thou.
Now this actually took me a while to understand. I was really struggling to see how if Kuroi was lying it would "out" me, but I believe I got it. I think it's difficult to get so I'll explain for the benefit of others.
I'll start with the obvious. So 295 was Kuroi saying he thought it was a 3 mafia setup, and this is either true/false. If a true statement, it must be town, because a mafia player would right away see that he's wrong about it, as he would see there are 2 mafia instead of 3. So if its true he's town and if it's false he is mafia, as a town should never lie like that. Since being true seems more likely, it becomes an overall towny thing to say. I doubt he's so cunning as to be a mafia player and use an advanced strategy like this, to use his newbiness for a gambit like this. Unless his mafia partner came up with such a thing and told him, but even is pretty devious for a newbie game. So tl;dr its townish because being mafia would require it to be an advanced plan which is probably less likely. I think this is the situation in the basic sense, and I doubt many would disagree.
But what about the quote, how does that relate to this: well I'll say what I think he means. First I'll rearrange it: If it's fake, rask pretty much outed himself.
If it's fake (If Kuroi's statement is fake),
rask(me) outed himself (me? unless its a grammar mistake),
by setting that up (Kuroi's post?).
So I think the train of thought goes like, if it's a fake statement then he (Kuroi) is mafia, and this was an advanced plan.
But because getting Kuroi to say this would need the subject to be brought up, someone would have to prompt Kuroi for him to be able to say it.
So I assume you're implicating me of being a mafia scumbuddy of Kuroi if Kuroi is lying/mafia because what I asked was necessary for him to say what he did.
The other thing which would support such a theory is that such a devious plan would need someone who showed good planning to come up with it, and you might assume that someone such as me would be capable as a scumbuddy to plan and tell Kuroi how to do the entire thing, since Kuroi is a newish player who probably wouldn't plan something so cunning as scum.
At least that's how I could see your statement making sense, please correct me if I'm wrong or misinterpreted you.
But in the end yours is somewhat a moot point because
a) It probably isn't a fake post by Kuroi
b) Even if this were the case surely the priority would still be to lynch Kuroi, and speculate/revisit afterwards.
This is because this theory would rely on Kuroi being mafia as one of its premises, and a proposition can't be more true/likely than a necessary premise it relies on: either it's equal or less likely (and in this case it would be less). Which means it wouldn't be worth that much discussion right now, because the premise requires Kuroi is mafia and if you're going to assume that as a premise you would pretty much have to lynch Kuroi and then wait for the flip.
But it's hard to believe it's fake, and you show you don't believe it is fake through your unvote; I think it's likely a true statement as well. The only way I personally see it being faked (since I know I'm town) would be as a Plotinus scumbuddy plan as he's the only one I think who would be good enough to come up with it, and it would mesh with my previous conspiracy musings about Plotinus in 233. But it would be too hard to believe, which is why I overall judge them townish. Probably spent too much time on this one statement but I'm having fun overthinking things.-
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KuroiXHF Jack of All Trades
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Zaicon Mafia Scum
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VOTE COUNT 1.7
Sarg338 (0) -
ConvergentConclusion (0) -
tictac (0) -
KuroiXHF (2) - Plotinus, PhantomCobalt
Raskolnikov (0) -
franksa (2) - Sarg338, Raskolnikov, KuroiXHF
Jake from State Farm (0) -
PhantomCobalt (0) -
Plotinus (1) - franksa
Not Voting: Jake from State Farm, tictac, ConvergentConclusion
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Day 1 deadline is Sunday, January 3rd 2016 at 8:45 pm PST or in (expired on 2016-01-03 20:45:00)
Sarg338 replaces Maxspir_7.-
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Jake from State Farm Survivor
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mod, I'm so sorry but I'm not going to be able to play. Things are just too hectic at work and at home and with a vacation coming up I just have no time to play and be productive. My apologiesRobbed of a scummy for what had to be the best unvote in mafiascum history.
the whole game is dumb and we don't know why we're good at it and nobody knows what is going on and we're all going to have to accept that-
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Zaicon Mafia Scum
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pignash Goon
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Hey guys. I'll catch up and post by the end of the day.Completed MS games (10-6):
Town: Blitz 2(+), Blitz 6(+), Blitz 8(+), Newbie 1660(-), NY 191 (+), Blitz 23 (-), Blitz 26 (+)
Scum: NY 190(+), Mini 1729(+), Mini 1735(+), Newbie 1665 (+), Open 615 (-), Blitz 16(-), Newbie 1671 (+), Blitz 19 (-), Newbie 1675 (-)-
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pignash Goon
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Here are some thoughts:
Kuroi is up first. I found this:for you if you'd like. You do need an avatar. Hard to recognize a person in thread without one.
Spoiler: Kuroi
Some good and some bad in Kuroi's ISO but I'm leaning town currently. Frank next.Completed MS games (10-6):
Town: Blitz 2(+), Blitz 6(+), Blitz 8(+), Newbie 1660(-), NY 191 (+), Blitz 23 (-), Blitz 26 (+)
Scum: NY 190(+), Mini 1729(+), Mini 1735(+), Newbie 1665 (+), Open 615 (-), Blitz 16(-), Newbie 1671 (+), Blitz 19 (-), Newbie 1675 (-)-
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Sarg338 Goon
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Hey there! I'll be replacing Maxspir. A little background regarding my Mafia experience, I have played in 3 games on this site (1 from scratch I believe), although those were ~6 years ago. I've played one off-site, and while I might be able to find it if anyone is interested, it might take a bit! I have also played Town of Salem quite a bit. I had actually started reading and following this game once i replied to Zaicon to replace in, so I'm caught up!
I first want to say something regarding the recent "slip" of Kuroi before I make another post with any reads I have. He also mentioned a cop being in the game on post 48, that seemed to fly under the radar compared to this last one.
In post 48, KuroiXHF wrote:Maxspir, Mafia involves more than just the cop investigating someone and then giving it to the townspeople. It's a great help, but we have our part to do. Day One is mostly about building a foundation and if we are vigilant, wecanfind scum.
There's a few possibilities, which I'm sure we're all aware of.
Personally, because of his mentioning of a cop beforehand as well, I believe, for now, that he truly believed the setup to be those 9 roles. It's worth keeping in mind for later though.
Also, it seems maxspire's vote carried over to me, so I'll VOTE: Unvote for now.-
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tictac Mafia Scum
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In post 301, ConvergentConclusion wrote:
I don't think Rask said that. But if he did, then it's possible it's a WIFOM situation (I did my research). I don't think there is a whole lot to be gained thinking about it.
I get that you were confused somehow, but I don't get the thought process behind this at all.
What did you think I meant by that?-
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tictac Mafia Scum
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In post 303, Raskolnikov wrote:
rask pretty much outed himself by setting that up if it's fake thou.
but I believe I got it.
Yeh. You either catch on fast or knew what the scum were doing.
What is your read on me?-
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tictac Mafia Scum
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pignash Goon
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Franksa up next.
Spoiler: Franksa
No like. Plan on voting Frank right now, Plotinus is up next.
P-edit: Hi tictac.Completed MS games (10-6):
Town: Blitz 2(+), Blitz 6(+), Blitz 8(+), Newbie 1660(-), NY 191 (+), Blitz 23 (-), Blitz 26 (+)
Scum: NY 190(+), Mini 1729(+), Mini 1735(+), Newbie 1665 (+), Open 615 (-), Blitz 16(-), Newbie 1671 (+), Blitz 19 (-), Newbie 1675 (-)-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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In post 312, tictac wrote:What is your read on me?
As Plotinus said, replacing in is more likely from town, although I don't want to weigh this much especially given christmas/newyear. I assume at this busy time of year even some mafia replace out.
When you came into the thread you chose to start a new wagon as opposed to join on PC, franksa or Plotinus, which I think is slightly town as well. I think a mafia would be more likely to hop on an existing wagon and push it to a lynch, rather than starting a new case which has a good chance of not going anywhere. Even if you're mafia I have to say this action benefited the town through what he got from Kuroi. I think a mafia would also have been less likely to unvote Kuroi right after his post there, and instead would possibly cast doubt and try convince others to lynch anyways.
Overall it's a weak town, though I trust my other townreads more so I might have to think of this as more null for now, I'll explain why I'm hesitant:
So the thing is I have trouble reading more 'advanced' players; if someone knows not to make any obvious scum mistakes and especially if he does things like bussing it's going to be really hard for me to read them as mafia and catch them. So even though you and Plotinus do look town in action (my read on him being way stronger) I do have to reserve some doubt, and I find myself somewhat paranoid and conspiracy theorizing. Did he do these towny actions because he knew they would look really towny, for instance. So I trust my reads on players like PC and Franksa more. Even so, later in the game I can try to find scum through vca and just looking at actions which overcomes or reduces the problem of people who speak well. Finally odds are that the partner isn't like this and if lynched could give away such a player simply by looking at how this partner treated the player differently.
I'm anticipating how the 2 new replacements will act. Hello pignash and Sarg. Pig I'll read your cases soon.-
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Sarg338 Goon
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Pig I'll read your cases soon.
Actually they aren't that long; I thought they would be massive, the spoiler tags were scaring me
I think if you are going to talk about Kuroi you should say be thorough and say something about (295).
As for the case on franksa naturally I agree and a lot of our reasons (I've already said mine) overlap.-
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tictac Mafia Scum
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In post 315, Raskolnikov wrote:weak town
Thanks.
The reason I asked is it looks like you spent some effort in figuring out my thought process 303, but you didn't consider the scum POW. At all.
I figure you should be suspecting me of framing you at least a little bit.
Could be naive town or could be someone who knows my wincon for sure. Looks like you aren't naive town.
VOTE: Rask-
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pignash Goon
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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In post 318, tictac wrote:I figure you should be suspecting me of framing you at least a little bit.
Certainly was, to be honest. But even within that post I talk about how its a waste of time to speculate or talk too much about something which only applies if kuroi was lying, so I didn't want to get into a thing over it. I have to say I'm impressed you thought about that, though.-
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tictac Mafia Scum
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Sarg338 Goon
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Next up isPhantomCobalt. This guy hasn't posted much content outside of the reaction test, which got good reactions, even from those that it wasn't towards. Couple times of buddying towards Plotinus.
Most interesting part of his ISO to me is this, after which a short back and forth between Kuroi occurs. It gets a (successful) reaction from him, quite a defensive one too despite just being at a L-2, especially since PC gave us a bit of insight on his beliefs of the game/voting in post #170.
A quiet, aggressive player that doesn't react to random claims and is dismissive. I can see how some people might find him "scummy" or hard to read. For now, town read to me.
Rask
Only discerning thing to me early on is implying Plutonis is scummy for asking others questions. Not only is asking question like that good, especially early when you have nothing real to go in, it's kind of his job as an IC, since most newbies wouldn't know how to do it properly. Null Tell.
Sticks on PC for a majority of his posts early, and even reacts himself to PC's reaction test. Not sure why he felt the need to come on like he did when it wasn't directed towards him at all, and at the same time, gives a reaction to PC's vote on him. Double success! Slightly scummy-ish to this point.
In post 136, Raskolnikov wrote:In post 129, PhantomCobalt wrote:@Raskol why do you assume that I was scum-reading frank when I asked him if he was mafia?
Seriously? If you can't see even see why someone would make that assumption, I'm done arguing with you.
This is weird as well. Anyone who knew what he was doing wouldn't see it as a scumread. Not only should that request ("Your role PM says Mafia, right") being answered dismissively and not be entertained, but it definitely shouldn't be continually brought up after he gave his reason for it. It's like you bring it up hoping others will still see it as bad and agree with you and vote on him.
Next thing that jumps out to me is how 100% certain he is that PC is scum (Quote, "I don't have hope for PhantomCobalt though.", "At this point I am very convinced of his guiltiness", and "I hope for your sake you are mafia (I'm fairly confident)" ), he gives up the pressure/questioning of him, and instead jumps to 2 more targets (Jake and Franksa). Then you ask for a Role reveal this early into the game? You're essentially doing what PC did, which you didn't like and didn't understand why he'd do that.
Then you flip flop on PC 100%. This almost says the me "Well, that wagon didn't take off and probably wont, better give up and move to the next one".
Rask is #2 for me.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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I haven't seen a reaction test before that, despite reading several games. Without knowing what he was doing, his play just looked really terrible and I was seeing almost certainly mafia or a really bad town player. At first when I thought when he said he was reaction testing that it some excuse to act bad and I didn't think about it. It was much later one morning I re-read everything with the new information and then I saw it does make him strong town.-
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PhantomCobalt Mafia Scum
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In post 323, Raskolnikov wrote:I haven't seen a reaction test before that, despite reading several games. Without knowing what he was doing, his play just looked really terrible and I was seeing almost certainly mafia or a really bad town player. At first when I thought when he said he was reaction testing that it some excuse to act bad and I didn't think about it. It was much later one morning I re-read everything with the new information and then I saw it does make him strong town.
Why strong town? What made you invoke such a strong read?
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