Newbie 1671 - Game Over (Scum win)

[camn]

What about post 316, sarg? We're you aware that you were sheeping whatshisname.... Or was it coincidence? Please explain.

[Sarg338]

No clue what Sheeping is, sorry.

[Sarg338]

Looked it up.

Sheeping (or Barning) is the act of following a popular wagon or popular player with no independent intent.

This seem right? If so, no. Not sure how an ISO is considered sheeping.

[camn]

Your post 316 was a virtual clone of 314 by pignash.
Question: Are you saying you were before now UNAWARE of this? That the similarities are coincidence?

[Sarg338]

Considering I was writing mine at the same time as his judging by the timestamps, that is what I'm saying.

[Raskolnikov]

In chronological order:

I first want to say something regarding the recent "slip" of Kuroi before I make another post with any reads I have. He also mentioned a cop being in the game on post 48, that seemed to fly under the radar compared to this last one.

Ok this is good to point out. It becomes important later for different reasons though.

ISO on Franksa, since he's the top of my list right now. Long post ahead, going to spoiler it to save room.

-snip-

So far overall, Franksa is at the top of my list. I'm looking forward to his post today (hopefully) to see if my opinion about him changes.

Leaving a bit of an excuse for yourself to change upon his response. "(hopefully)" even implies you don't want your top of the list read to actually be scum, which is a weird and I assume slightly buddying with him for the possibility he doesn't end up lynched.

Next up is

PhantomCobalt

. This guy hasn't posted much content outside of the reaction test, which got good reactions, even from those that it wasn't towards. Couple times of buddying towards Plotinus.

VOTE: Kuroi gut L-2

Most interesting part of his ISO to me is this, after which a short back and forth between Kuroi occurs. It gets a (successful) reaction from him, quite a defensive one too despite just being at a L-2, especially since PC gave us a bit of insight on his beliefs of the game/voting in post #170.

A quiet, aggressive player that doesn't react to random claims and is dismissive. I can see how some people might find him "scummy" or hard to read. For now, town read to me.

Rask

Only discerning thing to me early on is implying Plutonis is scummy for asking others questions. Not only is asking question like that good, especially early when you have nothing real to go in, it's kind of his job as an IC, since most newbies wouldn't know how to do it properly. Null Tell.

Sticks on PC for a majority of his posts early, and even reacts himself to PC's reaction test. Not sure why he felt the need to come on like he did when it wasn't directed towards him at all, and at the same time, gives a reaction to PC's vote on him. Double success! Slightly scummy-ish to this point.

@Raskol why do you assume that I was scum-reading frank when I asked him if he was mafia?

Seriously? If you can't see even see why someone would make that assumption, I'm done arguing with you.

This is weird as well. Anyone who knew what he was doing wouldn't see it as a scumread. Not only should that request ("Your role PM says Mafia, right") being answered dismissively and not be entertained, but it definitely shouldn't be continually brought up after he gave his reason for it. It's like you bring it up hoping others will still see it as bad and agree with you and vote on him.

Next thing that jumps out to me is how 100% certain he is that PC is scum (Quote, "I don't have hope for PhantomCobalt though.", "At this point I am very convinced of his guiltiness", and "I hope for your sake you are mafia (I'm fairly confident)" ), he gives up the pressure/questioning of him, and instead jumps to 2 more targets (Jake and Franksa). Then you ask for a Role reveal this early into the game? You're essentially doing what PC did, which you didn't like and didn't understand why he'd do that.

Then you flip flop on PC 100%. This almost says the me "Well, that wagon didn't take off and probably wont, better give up and move to the next one".

Rask is #2 for me.

He admits that PC's reaction test was very effective. To be effective, people would have to not be used to such a test. He simultaneously says that PC's tests worked on me (implying I was unaware it was a test), but THEN but thinks me scum for voting PC because "anyone who knew what he was doing wouldn't see it as a scumread.". Essentially he says it worked and people including me didn't know the truth, and then he scumreads me FOR not knowing it was a test and thinking it scummy. He also scumreads me for flip-flopping on PC after it became public that it was a reaction test.
IDK about him, but I think that if you scumread someone (such as PC) because of their questionable actions which are LATER EXPLAINED, you then should re-evaluate when these actions are later explained. Did he not bother to think it through, or just didn't care? (or actually thinks that changing an opinion based on new information is bad?)

Kuroi ISO

-snip-

Last few ISOs are related to the whole "cop slip", which I mentioned in my first post.

Overall, if I had to play him in a Town/Null/Scum table, I'd place him in a high null/low scum situation, mainly based off of his reaction to PC. We'll see with the following days.

This is concerning. Go to the top of my post: he personally found even further evidence that this was a real townslip (a very earlygame crumb of sorts), which should reinforce how he feels about it being a real townslip vs a faked one. But even so he puts Kuroi as "high null/low scum". Surely if you disliked him it would be from thinking the townslip was faked? But he says the reason he dislikes Kuroi is (of all things) his reaction to PC earlier.

@Plotinus, After your read on Friday, if you're still feeling directionless/not very confident in any reads, would you be for or against a No Lynch for day 1?

This is absolutely terrible. It would seem possible that he was trying to bait/test plotinus, except that right after this post (and still before plot responds) he puts Plotinus as heavy town. How likely is it he's going after one of his strongest townreads rather than actually trying to get a no lynch (no lynching being an obv anti town thing).

So right now, my reads are as follow, in no order and with varying degrees.

Town: PC, Plutonis (Pre-ISO)
Scummy: Rask, Frankas, possible Kuroi
Null: ConvergentConclusion, TicTac, Pignash, possible Kuroi

The ISO on Plutonis will take a bit, mainly due to his longer posts.

Here's what I see
Impossible to lynch: PC, Plutonis
Possible to lynch: Rask, Franksa, possibly Kuroi
I'm leaving myself open to lynching: CC, Tictac, Pignas, possibly Kuroi

Sarg. I never claimed any role, but I don't understand how you can take that post and call it a slip.

No one claimed you claimed, but it can definitely be seen as a slip.

You've mentioned cop twice in your posts, both saying (Paraphrasing) "We can't wait around for the cop to check and tell us all the scum". We have NO info to even infer that a cop is in our current setup, yet you've mentioned him twice, both unwarranted and out of the blue. I'll lay out why this could be considered a slip.

1) You're a cop an and you accidentally let your role slip (unlikely)
2) You're mafia and either you or your partner is a mafia roleblocker, bringing the possibility of a cop in this game up to 50%, and you're playing it safe by assuming there's a cop until proven otherwise (Such as a jailor or 1-shot Bulletproof reveal) (More likely)

The other possibility being that you genuinely thought the game included all 9 roles in that table, instead of just a random column or a random row. (Most likely, IMO)

Except what Sarg doesn't say is that the third possibility would be town as a mafia would realize right away (in the role PM) that there are not in fact 3 mafia. Again, he thinks this last possibility is the "most likely", which should make Kuroi towny but he reads Kuroi as half null/half scummy.

Plot's ISO

-snip-

The points themselves are decent. However despite Plotinus being one of Sarg's best townreads, this ISO actually is mostly negative, and I would expect a null/scum read if this is the ISO you assemble on someone. He did say his read on Plotinus was pre-iso though, so this is understandable though still a bit weird to me. How did you have such a strong read on him before ISOing? You said you've been keeping up with the game too earlier (since you sent the PM, apparently), so you should have been here to catch the later part of these posts you analyse in this ISO.
Actually now that I mention it, in this ISO in every point you don't even say if you find the thing scummy or towny, and don't summarize your opinion at all on Plot which is weird on one of your only town reads (wouldn't be so strange on a null).

Wooo accusations! I'll go point by point and answer! Put each "section" into a spoiler so it doesn't take up much room!

No comment on Maxspir stuff. I can't say anything on that, as I'm not him.

Those old games had some... cringy posts from me. I haven't even re-read those and don't remember them too well.

First off, screw your walls. If you make a giant ass wall post, I probably wont read it, or skim over at best. If you need me to answer anything in it, bold it or post it in a new post.

Second. I'm a man of few words. You wont see me making paragraphs upon paragraphs of why I think someone is scum. No need for that. As they say, less is more. Also, please don't post and ask me to "make a list of my top 3 scum and reason why". Pet Peeve. I usually don't make lists and the such.

shudders

-snip-

You say no comment on Maxspir stuff, that you can't say anything, (maxspir is suspected for being noobscum for low content/terrible posts and no reason given) and then right after talk about how you were as a newbie, and quote your past self talking about how they don't like giant walls of text and are a man of few words. It WAS prompted by Plotinus saying he read your old posts, but even so I'm discomforted by this. I think a scum is more likely to go over their own meta and quote something, even if the opportunity presented to do so is valid.

-snip-

shudders

Spoiler: Points on Franksa

Spoiler: Points on PC

Spoiler: Points on Rask

Spoiler: Points on Kuroi

Spoiler: Points on No Lynch

To be continued.

[Sarg338]

"(hopefully)" even implies you don't want your top of the list read to actually be scum,

Coming in quickly to refute this. You misunderstood what I meant by that. "(hopefully)" refers to

hopefully

seeing his post that day, as he mentioned before. I mean, it's even there right after i mentioned that. You're really looking for stuff to call out on me if you're trying to twist that to seem bad.

I'll come back to the rest after this game of dota.

[Sarg338]

then right after talk about how you were as a newbie, and quote your past self talking about how they don't like giant walls of text and are a man of few words. It WAS prompted by Plotinus saying he read your old posts, but even so I'm discomforted by this.

It was literally a joke-y quote, pointing out how cringey that sounds.

Everything else in that post is just weak attempts at twisting and misconstruing my words to somehow try and fit what you're going for. Weak case overall.

[Raskolnikov]

Why is Phantom's vote on Kuroi interesting to you? Because of Kuroi's reaction?

Basically.

Why not explain why it is interesting, if it's your only reason for having him as scummy (reminder that his scumreads are franksa, me, and half Kuroi)?

What signs have you seen that Rask knew what Phantom was doing?

That's what I'm saying. He didn't know. That's why he saw it as a scumread for doing it.

So why do you dislike me for it? "This is weird as well. Anyone who knew what he was doing wouldn't see it as a scumread."

Regarding No Lynch

1) I don't see it as me "backing down pretty quickly". I asked for you opinion, you gave it, with reasoning. Simple as that. In my mind, when I asked that, losing 1 town (night kill) is better than losing 2 (Lynch + night kill). That's fine if you don't want to give me a pass, it's fair enough.

Do you really think a nolynch is better based on that reasoning? You assume that there is a mislynch if you are comparing losing 1 town to losing 2. As far as I know the leading wagon was franksa, your #1 scumread. Why are you thinking in a way that presumes a mislynch if you think the leading wagon is actually on your top scumread? I think that planning for mislynches and having it in your mind like this is more likely from scum. At the very least this doesn't really explain him considering a nolynch in a townish way.

He townreads me but specifies that it's a pre-ISO read. What was it based on, then, if not my ISO?

I meant that I didn't look at your posts specifically by then. It was based off of just reading the thread as a whole from my following it before subbing in.

Ok I guess you read the thread as a whole, gave him one of your two townreads, and then ISO'd him saying nothing about how it changed how you felt, alright. I already talked about why I don't like this but whatever.

[Raskolnikov]

In summary the case on Sarg himself is weak, but overall still negative. Maxspir also is somewhat bad.

Maxspir asked if anything gets done on day 1, though he himself puts minimum effort into getting things done. From #107 to #174 (3 days) he is here and does post but they are extremely shallow, and I think someone in a scumchat would be slightly more likely to act in this manner. His vote is only to try to illicit some reaction. He was definitely here during those three days, responding to a few things, but he didn't ask a single question or put an iota of effort into what would be his wincondition as a town.

Overall the combined case isn't that great and a lot of why I don't like him is gut. I'm really not sure if finding mistakes is the end-all scumhunting at this point as I think a good scum player would then make less scummy mistakes than a newbie town would. I'm sort of starting to doubt my ability to read anything. Really he was my number two for a reason, I think the case on franksa is more sound.

But the deadline is coming up, franksa my preferred lynch won't be lynched and sarg is really all else I have. Better if the lynch is on my weaker scumread if there's nothing more promising.

[Sarg338]

I'd defend myself, but I have nothing TO defend myself against in your case, besides your "gut". Can't do anything about that.

[Raskolnikov]

That's not entirely true.

You can tell me how ISO'ing Plotinus changed or didn't change your read on him. You can tell me why you read Kuroi as scum/null based on a reaction to PC when you believe he thought there were 9 roles (which would make him town).

[camn]

Follow up question, sarg.. Do you read the thread? If so... Why didn't you notice the post by pignash?
Or did the whole thing just slip under your radar, cuz you already know who the scum are and don't need to read carefully? (Some say skimming is scummy)
Or maybe you guys planned the attack, and are intentionally ignoring each other now? (That's called distancing, and its also scummy.)

[Plotinus]

The People Who Are Still Alive:
1)

Sarg338

Maxspir_7, Owned

<--

happiest lynching this

2)

camn

ConvergentConclusion, MormonCoffee

<--

didn't like her predecessor, want to give her more time

3)

tictac

Aurora

<--

town

4)

KuroiXHF

<--

town

5)

Raskolnikov

<--

was townreading him until tictac's push, want to reread him in more detail now, won't be able to do this before the deadline because of weekend v/la, want to give him more time. I think I might still be townreading him but I don't know. I need to re-evaluate him and it's unlikely to happen before the deadline and that makes me reluctant to lynch him.

6)

franksa

Freshmaniscoolman

<--

town

7)

pignash

Jake from State Farm

(SE) <--

want to give him more time but happier lynching him than camn

8)

PhantomCobalt

(SE)

<--

weak townlean but tired of defending him from himself

9)

Plotinus (IC)

<--

T

h

a

t

'

s

m

y

n

a

m

e

,

d

o

n

'

t

w

e

a

r

i

t

o

u

t

!

deadline is approaching and i won't be back from v/la before it hits. i'm not going to be afk, but i'm also not going to have the mental resources for making big cases or making big changes to my readslist and re-evaluating (maybe Sunday if today goes better than I'm expecting it to but realistically speaking probably not).

I'll be around enough to move my vote and post bunny pictures and answer simple questions and probably IC stuff too because that's easy.

To prevent a no lynch, at the deadline, I would vote anybody but myself/tictac/kuroi/franksa. I would rather not lynch Phantom or camn but I would if I had to in a deadline scramble. I would be happiest with a sarg lynch but would support a pignash lynch too.

Sarg did reply to some of my points and he was right that I missed a few things but I still think he's scum. I think he only replied to the stuff in my case that was easy to reply to. I reread my case on him in 372 with the knowledge that he had been reading along so "knowing too much" wasn't a point against him and there are a lot of points in there that don't hinge on that which he didn't really reply to and mostly just brushed aside.

buddying me, accusing franksa of grasping at straws on page 3 but not minding me doing it much later, copying my reasoning on a bunch of things, his reads list is pretty much a temperature sweep, advocating a no lynch.

VOTE: Sarg338

[Sarg338]

Eh, if you think lynching me will give the town more information than anyone else, go for it. Posting from my phone, so it'll be kinda short.

@camn I read his post after I posted mine, since it happened while I was typing mine up. I'm sorry we share the same opinion on franksa?

@rask will come back to you when at my computer

@plotinus A lot of your points were on the fact that you thought I hadn't read everything, as well as me continuing to talk about what kuroi regarding PR (which we ended up agreeing on the reason? So I'm not sure how that goes against me) but if you'd like, just for you, I'll go back and respond to the other points that I missed.

I'm surprised there's a wagon against me with such weak cases. Mafia must be trying to push this pretty hard.

[Sarg338]

Oh, I'd also like to see what you mean by me "buddying" you.

[Sarg338]

And copying your reasoning?

Now that's just insulting if you think I'm not capable of my own thought.

Your case against me is much weaker than you think it is.

[PhantomCobalt]

VOTE: sarg

camn wagon isn't going anywhere so I'll just wagon

Don't really like this lynch but dl crunch probes :/

[Sarg338]

Woo looks like I'm out day 1. Top 3 before I go.

Franksa, rask and plotunis. I'd look on this wagon for scum, as really only scum would push lynched like this with no case against the lynchee.

[tictac]

@Sarg
Join me on rask then.
franksa is obvtown.

[Sarg338]

I'd be down for a rask Lynch. I think either will give us good information on the alignment of many players.


VOTE: Raskolnikov

[tictac]

Hate info-lynching, but whatever rocks your boat.

[pignash]

Ok, going through Plot's ISO. It's not really useful to go through and check if her posts are "towny" enough because they are going to be either way. More information can be gleaned from her arguments.

Spoiler: Plotinus

So far her votes have been on:

1. MormonCoffee (Camn) - RVS/wanting to start a wagon early

2. Maxspir (Sarg) - Naked really, they clear up with a reads list a bit later on:

Readslist:

town: Kuroi and Ras are scumhunting, asking lots of people questions, displaying depth of thought

town for now: Jake (pignash) is scumhunting and I like the questions that he's asking people. I don't think this level of engagement is beyond his capacity to fake as scum but I don't have a problem with anything that he's posted so far.
PC is scumhunting and drawing a lot of attention to himself in ways that he could avoid doing as scum and there's a lot of surface level bullshit that he's turning down the opportunity to push people on. I don't have a strong read on him either way, but I'm actually getting reads on everybody else based on how they're responding to him.

lurksacks:
Aurora (tictac): needs to be doing more.
MormonCoffee (camn): needs to respond to his prod or be replaced

maybe scum:
franksa: I was scumreading him earlier but looking at his ISO he's been doing more scumhunting than I thought. I thought he was a bit flustered by PC's questions about whether he was mafia or not, it looked more like a "how did you know" reaction than a "no i'm not" reaction, and he's mentioned his newbie status a few times defensively.

maxspir (sarg): is having a lot of trouble taking stances and isn't scumhunting. Never says that somebody could be scum without quickly saying that they could also be town, which reads like someone who doesn't want to antagonise anybody, like he worries that town will fight back against him if he scumreads them.

(parentheses mine) Franksa's case seems more definitive to me from Plot than Max but they have their vote there so they put him on the bottom. Don't love that but reads are pretty fluid this early in the game. Just noting it for later in case.

3. Franksa, case is in the reads list, continues a wagon. Good vote. (unvotes to avoid quickhammer while gone)

4. Kuroi, this vote is a little worse. Not much there and they throw their vote there. I don't mind that in theory but it is a little different than the other votes. Unvotes after the "townslip"

5. pignash, at this point I had only made 2 substantial posts and I understand this vote. Busier at work than I was expecting so I didn't contribute during those 2 days. Sorry about that.

6.Sarg, almost immediately after. Like the case on his slot really.

Ok things go a bit sideways on my town reading at this point. She hard defends Franksa and hands out cute pictures to people who unvote. All that was necessary was for one person to unvote so no one quickhammered, but why she kept doing it after that was a little suspect to me. I don't think it makes her scum, but a Franksa flip might tell us a lot actually.

TL;DR: I'm leaning town on Plot but if Franksa is scum, I would take a hard look at them.

[tictac]

I find Plots flip on frank believable.
Either town or emulating themselves-as-town.

[pignash]

Ok I see Sarg is L-1. Our deadline is tomorrow.

intent to hammer

Claim please.