Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[MoosyDoosy]

So is it 3 scum team or 2 scum team?

Kill iraonavp !!

[3dicerolling]

Vote count 2.2

The state fair makes giant cinnamon rolls at one of the stands. They taste absolutely fantastic.

Soapbar - (0)
FA_Q2 - (0)
MoosyDoosy - (0)
toolenduso - (0)
TheCow - (0)
Metrion - (2) Toolenduso, Iraonavp
raskolnikov - (0)
iraonavp - (4) Syndesis, MoosyDoosy, davesaz, TheCow

(L-2)

Syndesis - (0)
davesaz - (1) Soapbar

Not voting: raskolnikov, Metrion, FA_Q2

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Day 2 ends: (expired on 2016-01-12 16:57:21)

[Raskolnikov]

Tools is probably town too. Normally I have trouble reading the text-wall logical posters, but I think he's pretty action driven to be mafia. My previous experience found mafia that posted that way showing hints of trying to slow things down in the game and confuse the town, but I'm not seeing that from tools. For the rest I'm seeing a lot of null for now. I have to go back over in more detail later today since I speedread a lot just to catch up.

@Moosey iraon doesn't look that bad tbh. Shaky earlygame but his near-deadline and day 2 posts are alright.

[toolenduso]

Huh. I just realized that I'm more or less townreading everybody on the ira wagon.

Hello rasky wasky. The wagon on ira is mostly about him pushing a counterwagon to the D1 lynch, who flipped scum.

[FA_Q2]

That's a large generalization, this is entirely dependent on situation. On d1, I don't try to resolve inconsistencies among my reads (e.g. [x] and [y] probably aren't both scum together but I read them as scum individually). This means that when a read is wrong, it doesn't make the others all wrong too.

And that really misses the point. You are being very defensive of the read itself. What interested me is the fact that you didn't even hesitate and entrenched your read rather than even look at the single positive scum slot and what that might mean. I don't see anything from you about the CN flip in general.

Also:

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?

They... seem town-aligned? Their posts are genuine and train-of-thought, s that what you want to hear? I am not good at town-aligned reads. Let's say it is a "gut read", if that makes it easier.

This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

I don't understand where you're getting this from. I read Metrion, FA_Q2, TheCow and you as scum-aligned to various degrees. The deadline is forcing a compromise lynch.

How is this a compromise lynch? You want to lynch me and I am one of the leading wagons.

A compromise lynch because Metrion would be my first pick for today's lynch.

I am reminded about this scummy post. Here you are claiming that one of your scum picks (me) is a 'compromise lynch' which is a false claim IMHO. You labeled me as scum - not as a maybe. I notice that you did not even include any maybes in your statement. You cannot compromise by lynching one of your top scum picks. It really looks like you were positioning yourself for my flip. Considering you were pushing for me at the end I certainly do not see your vote on my wagon as a 'compromise.'

It was a compromise lynch because I considered Metrion more likely to flip scum than you. This is just nitpicky and terrible, I don't see how it could be at all indicative even if I used the wrong term to describe it.

It's not 'nitpicky' and it has nothing to do with using the 'wrong term.' It has to do with positioning. You do scummy things and then demand that they really are not scummy.

Lastly, the town read on CN was not just wrong - it was completely uncalled for. Had you went with CN as a PL and a bad idea I could have bought that (though I clearly disagreed). There was nothing at all that gave an indication of town on CN.

That's your personal opinion, and I disagree. Of course you aren't going to be able to see indications of CN being town-aligned after he's flipped scum-aligned. But from my perspective yesterday, he appeared town-aligned.

I cant see 'indications' because his ISO was essentially blank.

I know you mentioned:

VOTE: iraonavp

It would really help a lot if you would say why.

I am personally somewhat frustrated at being the main wagon at this point. I feel it is a direct result of me being incorrect (and the most vocally so) about Chaotic Neutrality's alignment.

And I understand being frustrated in this circumstance if you really are town. However, it is obvious that you, defending CN far more than CN himself, would be the number one candidate out the gate this day for many people. I can say that your position on CN is simply a part of why I am having issues with your slot.

That's shallow. It makes me a much easier mislynch, since most of this town seems to have difficulty getting past my defending of a scum-aligned player.

*sigh* it's not 'shallow.' It is fact.

I'm also not surprised that Metrion hasn't voted me yet. My town-aligned flip will reflect very badly on him, and he's scared to play a part in it.

^I would like a response to this post. Metrion, where are your votes in general. I don't think you have made a real vote this game...

[FA_Q2]

Tools is probably town too. Normally I have trouble reading the text-wall logical posters, but I think he's pretty action driven to be mafia. My previous experience found mafia that posted that way showing hints of trying to slow things down in the game and confuse the town, but I'm not seeing that from tools. For the rest I'm seeing a lot of null for now. I have to go back over in more detail later today since I speedread a lot just to catch up.

@Moosey iraon doesn't look that bad tbh. Shaky earlygame but his near-deadline and day 2 posts are alright.

Really?
His day 2 posts are horrible imho. His day one really didn't bother me.

[Soapbar]

So is it 3 scum team or 2 scum team?

I'd say it depends on if there's an SK or not (since it's still not set in stone that Swords was killed by a vig), if there is, I'd say 2-man, if there isn't then 3-man.

In other words we'll find out D3, I guess.

who knows it could be 4 man

[FA_Q2]

Let's do some pseudo-VCA while I painstakingly reread! How likely is it that...

...CN was bussed?
...scum was setting up to bus CN but did not get a vote on the wagon?
...there's scum on FA's wagon?
...there's scum off both wagons?

Normally I would say that it is most likely that there was one scum on CN and one on me assuming a 3 man team. I don't really like the complete lack of a vote from met's slot though. I am positive there was at least one scum on my wagon. A day one counter wagon to a scum is sure to have someone from the scum team supporting it. I doubt it was synd considering the late day switch that really finished off CN's flip and I don't see a lot from day one that would make me think he was scum anyway. lolslot and ira are both scummy to me right now.

[MoosyDoosy]

Seeing as to how early game was me and hawkleader as primary suspicions and CN was pushing onto me, the other Mafia was likely on hawkleader. Which means that someone who gave me an early town read was likely the other Mafia. Just giving me an early town read makes no sense in the first place to be honest.

^^ So looking at the people that town read me, iraonavp looks worse.

That's literally my entire argument for voting him but it makes sense when you think about it.

[toolenduso]

Eh...I could get into the details of the back and forth between FA and ira but it wouldn't amount to much at this point. Ira's responses give me the town explanations for his actions and I can see them being true just like I can see the scum explanations being true.

What I think will be more useful is going back over my notes for ira and looking again at the dynamics of the wagons. What moosy just said about the hawk wagon makes sense on first consideration, so the hawk wagon might be a good place to start.

[toolenduso]

I also think the lack of interest in a Metrion lynch is interesting...I came into today thinking Metrion was the obvious candidate for a lynch and that we'd have to slow things down to prevent him from being instalynched, but so far I think it's just been me and ira? Like if Metrion is town I would think he would be a good target for scum to push as a mislynch, and if he were scum that would mean ira would likely be town and that would partially explain the lack of interest in a Metrion lynch -- because his partner is off pushing ira (or not voting for fear of being associated with a mislynch, as the case may be).

Idk it just makes a ton of sense to me still that Metrion would be scum. But this is part of what I want to look at -- if ira is scum, and everyone voting him right now is town (which I think is very possibly true), then what's his partner doing?

[MoosyDoosy]

I also think the lack of interest in a Metrion lynch is interesting...I came into today thinking Metrion was the obvious candidate for a lynch and that we'd have to slow things down to prevent him from being instalynched, but so far I think it's just been me and ira? Like if Metrion is town I would think he would be a good target for scum to push as a mislynch, and if he were scum that would mean ira would likely be town and that would partially explain the lack of interest in a Metrion lynch -- because his partner is off pushing ira (or not voting for fear of being associated with a mislynch, as the case may be).

Idk it just makes a ton of sense to me still that Metrion would be scum. But this is part of what I want to look at -- if ira is scum, and everyone voting him right now is town (which I think is very possibly true), then what's his partner doing?

mMmm good point. Look at Metrion plzerino?

[toolenduso]

Look at Metrion plzerino?

What do you mean, specifically?

[Syndesis]

wow the deadline suddenly looks disturbingly close

This thread could use more Cow.

I've been oscillating on ira for the last few days TBH.

[Syndesis]

I kind of want to vote Ras honestly.

Spoiler: a bunch of lolbabe quotes

Intrigued now, what did CN do so fast that he's at L-3 (??)?

FA and CN can't both be scum but it certainly feels that way -_-

I doubt his buddy defended him really much

he [Swords], FA and Syndesis were pretty much confirmed town players

Also, would

Metrion

please elaborate on the Soap scumread?

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah this ISO is just too bad. Bonus points for the subtle defence of CN (334, 342).

VOTE: Metrion

@Syndesis I think it wouldn't be right for me to pretend I know what her thought process was or to defend her posts, so I can't really comment if that'll be your reasoning. I assure you this slot is town though.

[3dicerolling]

TheCow has been prodded.

[Syndesis]

VOTE: Raskolnikov

is a more interesting lynch I think

[Raskolnikov]

What's interesting about it? It would be weird of me to try to defend my predecessor and so I'm just sort of low hanging fruit for mislynch at this point. I'm not sure you'll even be able to analyse the wagon around it very much because I haven't been here that long. Ugh.

Feel free to call it bad or good but please don't pretend it's "more interesting".

[Syndesis]

I'm just sort of low hanging fruit for mislynch

Why do you believe this?

[Raskolnikov]

Same sentence, my friend. If you want to lynch based on lolbade you are essentially prosecuting an absentee, which I think is inarguably rather easy to do.

[iraonavp]

Let's do some pseudo-VCA while I painstakingly reread! How likely is it that...

...CN was bussed?
...scum was setting up to bus CN but did not get a vote on the wagon?
...there's scum on FA's wagon?
...there's scum off both wagons?

I cannot tell. In my opinion, this type of general analysis is less useful than actually considering individual players and their stances, for example what toolenduso did in 477.

[iraonavp]

Kill iraonavp !!

There is no need for such vehemence!

[iraonavp]

That's a large generalization, this is entirely dependent on situation. On d1, I don't try to resolve inconsistencies among my reads (e.g. [x] and [y] probably aren't both scum together but I read them as scum individually). This means that when a read is wrong, it doesn't make the others all wrong too.

And that really misses the point. You are being very defensive of the read itself. What interested me is the fact that you didn't even hesitate and entrenched your read rather than even look at the single positive scum slot and what that might mean. I don't see anything from you about the CN flip in general.

But I did look at what Chaotic Neutrality's scum-aligned flip meant, in my first post of the day!

@iraonavp, what's your read on Metrion right now?

^^ probably like the most prevalent question right now.

Scum-aligned, it was not altered very much by Chaotic Neutrality being revealed as scum-aligned. The soft defense of Chaotic Neutrality makes me suspect Metrion to an even greater extent since Chaotic Neutrality was actually scum-aligned. It makes more sense to me that I was wrong about thinking CN was town-aligned but right about thinking Metrion was scum-aligned.

I am perhaps being defensive of my read because I feel your criticism is unwarranted.

Also:

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?

They... seem town-aligned? Their posts are genuine and train-of-thought, s that what you want to hear? I am not good at town-aligned reads. Let's say it is a "gut read", if that makes it easier.

This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

I don't understand where you're getting this from. I read Metrion, FA_Q2, TheCow and you as scum-aligned to various degrees. The deadline is forcing a compromise lynch.

How is this a compromise lynch? You want to lynch me and I am one of the leading wagons.

A compromise lynch because Metrion would be my first pick for today's lynch.

I am reminded about this scummy post. Here you are claiming that one of your scum picks (me) is a 'compromise lynch' which is a false claim IMHO. You labeled me as scum - not as a maybe. I notice that you did not even include any maybes in your statement. You cannot compromise by lynching one of your top scum picks. It really looks like you were positioning yourself for my flip. Considering you were pushing for me at the end I certainly do not see your vote on my wagon as a 'compromise.'

It was a compromise lynch because I considered Metrion more likely to flip scum than you. This is just nitpicky and terrible, I don't see how it could be at all indicative even if I used the wrong term to describe it.

It's not 'nitpicky' and it has nothing to do with using the 'wrong term.' It has to do with positioning.

I feel I have made it clear enough in my explanations that what I meant to convey was that I still read you as scum-aligned, but would prefer to lynch Metrion. The awkwardness you perceive in my positioning comes only from perceived misuse of the term "compromise lynch", of which it has been established that we interpret it in different ways.

You do scummy things and then demand that they really are not scummy.

That is generally how one responds to inherently flawed accusations.

Lastly, the town read on CN was not just wrong - it was completely uncalled for. Had you went with CN as a PL and a bad idea I could have bought that (though I clearly disagreed). There was nothing at all that gave an indication of town on CN.

That's your personal opinion, and I disagree. Of course you aren't going to be able to see indications of CN being town-aligned after he's flipped scum-aligned. But from my perspective yesterday, he appeared town-aligned.

I cant see 'indications' because his ISO was essentially blank.

That said, I don't actually think that Chaotic Neutrality is likely to be scum-aligned, and I would not vote to lynch him. I feel that his responses to pressure looked like genuine town irritation. I don't support his retaliative push on toolenduso, but I think it came from a town-aligned thought process (from reasoning of toolenduso is wrong, therefore he's scum-aligned, which despite being wrong doesn't make Chaotic Neutrality more likely to be scum-aligned). I don't see why a scum-aligned player would push their accuser (if toolenduso was town-aligned, which I feel is likely to be true), since all that would do is convince their accuser that they were more likely to be scum-aligned.

For reference, this was why I did not support the lynching of Chaotic Neutrality. Even if you do not agree with these reasons, you cannot deny that they exist.

[iraonavp]

Huh. I just realized that I'm more or less townreading everybody on the ira wagon.

Same here, other than TheCow.