Blitz 18: Wedding Invitational Mafia - GAME OVER

[Cephrir]

A scum motivator does sound too good.

[Cephrir]

too scummy to be scum players are usually scum.

[Cephrir]

especially if they are someone like malakittens (not that i think that phrase is super merited here), and not MafiaNoob420

[Cephrir]

xXBlazeItxXxNOSCOPEXx

[Cephrir]

If you had to dayvig 2 people who would they be and how would you feel about doing it?

oh, i forgot the important part of this post

mala and gm. i'd lynch notty after that if mala flipped town. i would feel 9/10 confident I'd just gotten one scum.

@AP; I don't think this is exactly the same as what you're saying, but what happened is:

-The setup doesn't seem to make much sense, and this seemed like a potential source of the problem;
-Nacho made some good points;
-I kinda let myself be dragged along with the "oh it's a claim I suddenly don't want to go here anymore" tide when I was suspicious of her before.

I guess?

Also GM flipped scum and now I know the antecedent is true so the chances of the conditional statement being true have improved. If I may incorrectly appropriate some logic terms.

[Cephrir]

I try to avoid statements such as "exactly one scum." It's sort of a silly assertion unless you have a real reason behind it. If I ever do that it's because I can't accept the possibility that I could be right about something.

[Cephrir]

Uhhhhhh? You said you'd be 9/10 confident that you only got one scum. I left that conversation originally with the impression you thought it as just one scum in that group and I'm still seeing that on this revisit, but ok. What about the setup didn't make sense? Mala was the only claim and GM has jut made a vague claim of not B/G at that point.

Didn't say only, yo. But I might have meant it. Eh.

I guess we didn't have BG claims yet. I might be imputing my future thought process instead? Kill cop tracker motivator seems a little stupid, still.

[Cephrir]

he's accusing me of derailing gm's wagon d1

Hahahahaha

If anyone derailed it, I did

Your game awareness is just upsetting sometimes.

[Cephrir]

At least read the thread

[Cephrir]

did we ever get flavor from bro

[Cephrir]

i guess i was hoping for why that makes you a miller, im sure anyone could explain why their own father should be a miller but stil

[Cephrir]

Yeah, I'm peripherally aware of that.

[Cephrir]

If anything makes me nervous, it's the lack of serious counterpush, but probably-two scum can only do so much, especially if they're the ones the majority seems to think they are

[Cephrir]

[Cephrir]

Counterpoint:













Nuh uh

[Cephrir]

[Cephrir]

It actually looks like there's a little wiggle room on either side.

[Cephrir]

that post looks a little bit like a bus.

[Cephrir]

I'll show up in time to move my vote if I need to

[Cephrir]

I'm here if I need to be...

[Cephrir]

Brilliant repartee.

[Cephrir]

So, AP< wanna play a game of chicken?

[Cephrir]

Troll nacho is best nacho.

Thank you for explaining.

[Cephrir]

Troll nacho is best nacho.

Thank you for explaining.

pie was your secondary read, no?
vote pie
stop being so uptight

you made that up in your head!

[Cephrir]

VOTE: pie

Sure whatever

[Cephrir]

I don't want to rush to another lynch again today. I've been down this road and this game I actually give a damn.

[Cephrir]

You're going to need to do a little better than that.

[Cephrir]

At least show me some fire notscience, you sound like you're not even trying anymore

[Cephrir]

if he were town, would he be trying? he does seem pretty pre-lynched today, i know that would turn me off too regardless

[Cephrir]

i'll be the first to admit i think he's fairly likely to be scum, but if he isn't i'd like to at least not feel like an ass

[Cephrir]

I don't see any benefit to massclaiming today given last night. Chances are whatever caused that will be the only new information.

[Cephrir]

notty was doing the "i'm super town with nothing to back that up" thing this game wasn't he

i hate that thing but i feel like i've seen him do it as town too. actually have i even seen him not be town outside of FEA? i dont think i have.

[Cephrir]

VOTE: notty

let's not quicklynch, but i want to see what happens when i do this

[Cephrir]

look at me i'm invalidating my pressure votes by calling them pressure votes

[Cephrir]

2) Based purely off what nacho claimed, theres also a th

3) do you think theres another protective? I dont. That means purely based off what we've seen that were supposed to think a rb stopped the kill

if there's a roleblocker, they're scum

[Cephrir]

And im saying I think its nacho.

So is he fabricating a roleblocker?

Actually hold on

Suppose nacho is telling the truth

Thats two investigative

Two protective

Two ics

But we have one negative utility claim

Thats weird.

But then we think like, do two investigatives in a game with two confirmes town and two protectives make sense with only a rb to cpunter them and i dont believe that either

Sooo

What's the alternative? Four scum?

[Cephrir]

Four scum actually could explain the beginning of this game I guess.

[Cephrir]

Would that be too good? I'm terrible at balance.

Also when considering the setup, bro's role isn't actually negative utility without a cop? unless he's one of those BS supermillers

[Cephrir]

four scum explains the universal suspicion on gm, a large team is more likely to bus. although, i think nacho would probably have to be town to compensate for that, which pretty much eliminates the whole reason i started thinking about this

i guess i'll just stop, premise invalid

[Cephrir]

i do think a four man scum team would be much more likely to feature natirasha than three.

[Cephrir]

my only real issue with that is that it's not like nacho's reads have been stellar and he doesn't really deserve an ivory tower

@ap: the sole possible reason is because gm. i'm assuming that doesn't convince you?

[Cephrir]

@ap: the sole possible reason is because gm. i'm assuming that doesn't convince you?

Was there some interaction they had that makes people think it unlikely? I do recall seeing Natirasha push for GM more than anyone else. Nacho far and away made the best case on GM though.

GM basically did nothing but complain about how no one would listen to her on nati

[Cephrir]

Obviously if there's a town roleblocker they should claim because duh

does that even need to be said

[Cephrir]

Would this face lie to you?

[Cephrir]

Yeah, probably.

[Cephrir]

You should probably look at me! I'm pretty town and I get warm fuzzy feelings when people call me town.

[Cephrir]

I think I'm going to choose logic over paranoia and keep voting notty.

[Cephrir]

Why would I be a power role?

[Cephrir]

????????????

[Cephrir]

i thought that was going to be good until it didn't rhyme at the end.

[Cephrir]

ok maragua

[Cephrir]

nah let's derp around and lynch cephrir for no reason, hate that guy

[Cephrir]

is this really what we're going to do here

[Cephrir]

AP, please show up and be non-ridiculous

[Cephrir]

there is something i'm not getting about this setup. it seems to me that either there must be four scum, or the roleblocker has to somehow also be a strongman? In that case, why wasn't the goon a strongman?

[Cephrir]

or maybe i actually DO get it, and i just don't want to get it

[Cephrir]

You haven't exactly been a big presence.

I'm a VT.

[Cephrir]

Well what's your explanation for the setup then?

[Cephrir]

It seems to me that the options are "this is lylo" and "nacho is scum"

[Cephrir]

Why not 'Nacho is scum' and 'There are four scum'. I feel with this much power and this many players we pretty obviously have a 11/4 setup.

Sure, both is technically possible, but the point remains.

I hadn't thought about the possibility of four scum very hard outside of brief bursts of paranoia until pretty much just now.

[Cephrir]

nacho please convince me you haven't been fucking around having a grand old time all game

everyone else please do anything that's town because i don't really think any of you have ever

reminding me is an adequate substitute

[Cephrir]

it's crazy how much worse i feel about this game today than i did yesterday

[Cephrir]

I think I still buy your goodmorning interactions case and she's thus more likely town than anyone else, but today of all days i'm not going to immediately put it outside the realm of possibility -- i think i want to reread what you said before and make sure i still believe in it

[Cephrir]

i should also iso everyone with flipped scum but that sounds like something i'm going to talk about doing and then not actually do

[Cephrir]

how so? does anyone seriously suspect you compared to the alternatives?

[Cephrir]

more than the alternatives, i should say?

[Cephrir]

it's not that difficult if i accept your premises. do i accept them? meh.

[Cephrir]

ay, there's the rub

[Cephrir]

no, i didn't miss it -- i just don't understand why it happened

did something force them to reveal?

[Cephrir]

i mean are they just stupid or ???

i'm talking about there needing to be a strongman from a setup design perspective

[Cephrir]

mara revealed because natirasha thought they might have been scum

mara should not be trusted with power roles

[Cephrir]

i don't think it makes sense for their to be a strongman from a setup design perspective
if there is a strongman, it also makes yesterday night's no kill make absolutely no sense

what is scum's answer to bulletproof masons, then?

[Cephrir]

endgaming them with four scum.

Ceph, do you think scum-nacho would have the prescience to say they have a power role day one in response to my inquiry?

I don't think having to endgame them is good setup design.

I think I've only seen Scumcho once outside of being scum with him and he was certainly not up to snuff there. I think it's possible, though -- maybe I'm overestimating him but I don't think I am. I think that the most likely scenario in which nacho is scum and this is still true is one where he was planning all along to claim a power role anyways.

[Cephrir]

This point is going to be a non-point because I'm going to contradict myself, but I think that town players are really weirdly free with their role info sometimes and scum tend to keep it close to the vest until they have no choice but to claim, but I also think Nacho is good enough town not to do that and good enough scum to indeed do that.

This has been an irrelevant and aimless critique of bad town play and scum failing to take advantage of it by emulating it.

[Cephrir]

Also this game is deliberately town-sided based on flavor I think.

Maybe. Cabd is a prideful setup designer though. He'd want it to not be horrific.

[Cephrir]

also natirasha: i wouldn't bus two of my partners if I could spring surprise LyLo on the town

True. That would be pretty subpar. I wouldn't either!

[Cephrir]

i know i should "wait" and "reread" because those are the "right" things to do but i won't because they aren't

not doing that got us in this situation

[Cephrir]

okay i have to admit i think this is probably the correct vote.

[Cephrir]

but the key to catching Empire-scum is reading his iso backwards

you might have to explain this to me. not because it's necessary, just because i want to know how this is a thing.

[Cephrir]

but the key to catching Empire-scum is reading his iso backwards

you might have to explain this to me. not because it's necessary, just because i want to know how this is a thing.

well, i was skimming his most recent posts, and in about 10-15 minutes i got to his GM vote from Day 2 and that's suddenly when it dawned on me how little he's done since then

i think it's because empire's best scum play is in early days and then it's a very steep drop from there

that is certainly a good description of that one game

[Cephrir]

no

To be honest I keep going back and forth on it some, but there's a reason I didn't actually vote you.

make up your mind plsthx.

[Cephrir]

I always think it's a little silly when people try to insist they would make X Y Z nightkills (on n1/2) if they were scum as though scum teams are not teams.

[Cephrir]

I don't know why you expect Nacho to be embarrassed for being wrong when you've been nothing to write home about, but everyone around here seems to have unrealistic expectations like that. I probably used to be guilty of that too.

[Cephrir]

If so, then why didn't they?

[Cephrir]

The existence of the reveal really making ccing suicidal for scum, so...

[Cephrir]

his low opinion of his scum game

You were doing well until you got here!

[Cephrir]

I didn't but that makes a lot more sense now!

[Cephrir]

So you're arguing that Nacho is scum?

[Cephrir]

(Or, are you arguing that Mara threw away a won game that we were still playing because the mod is a sadist)

[Cephrir]

Forced by what?

[Cephrir]

So you're arguing that Nacho is scum?

????????
There aren't 4 scum left.

If we're just up against a roleblocker then I don't really get the game or why it didn't end day 3.

[Cephrir]

Whatever though, I probably shouldn't setup spec anymore, it's not going to get me anywhere

[Cephrir]

I was on the same page as you when you were saying bad things about empire and I don't know if what he's done today convinces me that wasn't correct, even though I really want to townread him for saying nice things about me.

[Cephrir]

Still at work but it is 100% within Mara to actually pop the IC like that (see: the TM Open) and the timing of it (in reaction to Nati) seems like it'd be way too much of a coincidence to be anything else.

I was distinctly reminded of this example!

[Cephrir]

I think they are pretty uniformly shallow and boring.

[Cephrir]

rekt

[Cephrir]

where are you sitting now, cephrir?

I'm not sure. Bro isn't being particularly inspiring in response to your pressure. I guess I'm willing to give that a shot.

[Cephrir]

I'm going to reread your nati anticase now.

[Cephrir]

Can't find it....did I imagine it?

[Cephrir]

It wasn't AP either. He likes to hate on her a lot more than I recalled actually.

[Cephrir]

don't frown at meeeee

you're making me feel bad! convince me you are town and empire is scum instead!

[Cephrir]

We clearly have different ideas of what pretty town means!

[Cephrir]

@miller thing: could be a fakeclaim, don't care about it. also would we even autolynch in two millers in a cabd game? i wouldn't

[Cephrir]

is bussing people who are screwed already really that exciting and high-risk a play?

[Cephrir]

no you wouldn't have, you don't have the chutzpah

outside of you, i don't think any of us do.

[Cephrir]

Also Bork's ISO seems to indicate that he was shot:

1) Because Empire is scum (he had everyone else who's still alive in his "will not lynch" pile pretty solidly)
2) Trying to hit a PR (not sure why scum would have thought that)
3) Trying to hit a universal townread that wasn't Tammy (under some sort of assumption that Tammy would have protection, maybe?)

Also there was a place in the ISO where Bork pointed out something to AP that was actually a bride/groom slip, which in retrospect is kind of funny.

Is there any reason someone would choose not to kill Tammy,then change their mind and kill her later?

[Cephrir]

bork and marquis are just weird kills yeah

Am I the only one who feels comfortable asserting there is virtually no chance Marquis was killed on purpose?

i'm really tempted to just roll a die 1-5 and just lynch
is that terrible of me?

Yes!

[Cephrir]

can we all just agree that we hate Cabd or something?

It took you this game to get here?????

[Cephrir]

The dead thread probably hates us.

The alive thread hates us.

[Cephrir]

Was Tammy doing anything on day 1?

[Cephrir]

It didn't used to be :/

[Cephrir]

i feel like we're mobbing against nati because we're here and she's not
but is that the wrong thing to do?

in theory, probably? there's something psychological that makes me prefer antagonizing someone who won't immediately reply.

[Cephrir]

I've never really been sold on Nati-town. When I threw out Nati-scum as an idea a few days ago, everyone except AP was like "fuck no."

Still, I have been to this place and I felt a sort of invisible stone wall.

[Cephrir]

i like was really really really super ready to lynch him

this can be our referendum on quicklynches.

[Cephrir]

Because, AS ITS BEEN OBVIOUS THE ENTIRE GAME, I came into this game with the agenda of being open with information. People are waay too worried about information leaking anymore, it's really stupid.

I have observed the opposite of this problem.

Also, Nacho getting roleblocked all game would like to have a word with you in the office.

[Cephrir]

That's a pretty lame argument, but not actually an important one

[Cephrir]

Well, you could have theoretically tried to get syryana lynched without claiming

you do have the charisma

[Cephrir]

nati would have had to make that post hoping that people would let it slide because it was a weird nati thing and it's risk for information that isn't very useful since anyone with eyes realized i was a pr at that point

TIL I don't have eyes (actually i don't really remember if i noticed)

[Cephrir]

Not like this. I mean, it's also like this, but also not like this.

The big thing is I

hate

playing scum because I don't like having to lie and stuff(ie Tammy Syndrome).

And the one thing I hope does come across this game is that I am having fun!

"I am having fun"

"The thread is boring"

[Cephrir]

cephrir

why do you think bro is town?

I do not have any reasons to think bro is town. I am, in fact, not particularly convinced he is town!

[Cephrir]

Actually I kind of want to get lynched now so you guys can see how troll me rolling Cabd's dad was.

[Cephrir]

Well, VOTE: Bro

In before Nati evil laugh & hammer.

[Cephrir]

Now you're just making me feel bad on purpose >:

[Cephrir]

It would be a gift.

[Cephrir]

Erm, that was not about you leaving.

[Cephrir]

Convincing as fuck, 10/10?

[Cephrir]

Like, Nacho, I thought BRO too but then I actually thought and it's clearly Empire.

please use more words

[Cephrir]

Except that's mostly relevant to Ceph.

this is the most engaging thing you have said all game

[Cephrir]

natirasha you are the worst

[Cephrir]

You are?

Why am I not dead?

[Cephrir]

Thanks for that brilliant repartee. It all makes sense now.

[Cephrir]

Anyway, I kind of thought it was Empire, but Nacho doesn't seem like a very good kill from him, so I'm questioning how wifomy he would be here

[Cephrir]

Why would you be afraid to kill Nacho? He voted you yesterday and seemed like Empire's most likely defender.

[Cephrir]

thrilling

[Cephrir]

Well, no, because he's dead?

[Cephrir]

So who do you think Nacho would have voted today? It seems to me that the most likely option is you.

[Cephrir]

I was including myself in that calculation. I don't know if you're right though.

[Cephrir]

I can see why Empire wouldn't have killed you though. If you die I vote Empire on the spot and I don't like his chances there.

[Cephrir]

I just really feel like I am supposed to be dead and there has to be a reason I'm not.

[Cephrir]

Hello friends! I am town!

[Cephrir]

Spoiler: The post I was writing before Empire posted

Let's be real for a second though, because I've been thinking about this for a while now!

Like, since during last night even, so that I'd know what to tell the dead thread.

And no matter how many nice things Empire said about me, he still was kind of lurky all game. That's not town Empire, whereas Nati's play is a little more likely to be in the realm of town-her.

I apologize a great deal if this isn't correct. If it's not, goodmorning is the MVP of this game. Those interactions were quite good. And I don't go in enough for NK spec for that to dissuade me in the absence of much else.

In memory of Nacho,



VOTE: Empire

Aw, alright, I won't slowroll you. Sorry, but a little embarrassment is in order. It's been fun

VOTE: Empire

And just in case there's a stupid role afoot, I'll VOTE: Natirasha too for good measure.

[Cephrir]

<3 <3 <3

[Cephrir]

Can someone please tell me how this was supposed to be possible.

[Cephrir]

Also,

[Cephrir]

gg.

cephrir, if you pull up S&S2 as an excuse for anything at all after this game ever again, i will eat you alive. that is all.

I think that this game is very different from that one. :S

[Cephrir]

Feel free to release the scum thread. I didn't keep a confessional the last 4 days for no one to see it.

Tammy, I killed you because:
-you were clearly town
-I figured you would become paranoid of me later
-I didn't want to kill anyone else that night except the B/G

[Cephrir]

My quickhammer was not intentional, but also I was scum so whatever

Being intentionally different is kind of my thing I started out trying to play a similar game to Tarot uPick II, I figured that was the most salient point for my towngame at the moment so I threw in a hint of apathy. The bussing was mostly because I thought in the long run I was going to have to go deep anyway, so I might as well bus the shit out of them especially since I don't do that.

[Cephrir]

As someone hyper-aware of their style I think I'm qualified to say that's not really a fair reason