Blitz 16: Blitz Greatest Idea Mafia(GAME OVER)

[Almost50]

Now, DISREGARDING the voting pattern on/off Wednesday; I would say I read FA, Lane, Persivul &
Flubber as town now. However, if I do take the votes into account this will single out FA as my strongest town read and put the other 3 slightly below her (because they all voted on one direction, and consecutively after eachother (admittedly with some time span in between).

If the three of them are scum it would really suck and I think we're very likely to lose the game, because I'm not the only one reading them as town. Gut feeling though tells me they're not, so I will stay off them.

From those NOT on the Wednesday wagon, the other 2 on Jackal are likely town.
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Above the line is the old text. Now what I would like to change is this:

I'm downgrading Pervisul to a scum read based on his defense of Starbuck. Flubber is stil leaning town, but NOT as strong.

My top town reads are FA, Ranger & Smithereens (in no particular order, as I feel these 3 are almost confirmed town players).

[RadiantCowbells]

I say 8 of us proxy our votes to FA and she yolohammers.

[Almost50]

FA scum kills me night 1 in 100% of games.

[RadiantCowbells]

FA scum kills me night 1 in 100% of games.

you think this is some kind of joke?

cuz it's not.

[Frozen Angel]

well so we have at least two factions and there was a warewolf faction in start

@Mod there are no kill flavors at all? I mean 2 shot means it can't be werewolves move?

@RC I'm town here and after wednesday's flip I wanna believe your too as well .

[Almost50]

The fact that she wasn't on the scum team means she is a scum target when it comes to the lynch. Everyone who mislynches is suspect by default. Those who do it opportunistically, which is what we saw yesterday, are even more so. The scum lynched what they thought was another townie. They were looking for that mislynch and for all thoughts and intents they got it.

Agreed, but we already nailed 2 non-town players (admittedly Wednesday was not "scum" but she didn't count as "town" either, and we're told we have at least 7 town-aligned players at the start of the game).

This means we have a maximum of 4 other scum/3rd party, and there are 6 alive from the wagon on Wednesday, so at least 2 town players there.

HOWEVER, I'm reading Flubber, BlackStar & davesaz as town leans currently, so either there are only 3 scum there or my reads on one of the 3 is not spot on.

[Almost50]

3rd part of my overnight analysis:

Our best scenario option is we have 4 more anti-town players. 3 of one faction + 1 third party (SK).

A slightly worse scenario is we HAD 4 anti-town, now 5 (3 mafia/WW + 2 cult).

Worst scenario: we have 6 more anti town now (2 mafia/WW, 1 WW/mafia, 2 cult & 1 SK)

The worst part is we already lynched the PI. I do realize there are two PI cards, but what are the chances both were drawn and both were chosen? This means if we have cult in play it will be up to us to out them w/o relying on investigations.
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I would like to drop the SK from all the above, as we -obviously- had no SK night action... unless -of course- we have a town RB, or someone immune like a Retired Marine.. OK, let's say it's still possible but highly improbable.

And -of course- the numbers are inaccurate, since everything was based on 12 players alive (as I didn't know who would be NK'd or what their flip will be).

[Almost50]

4th (final) part:

If we DO have a cult leader, they MUST have joined the wagon on Wednesday AFTER she claimed.

This means: Jackal is now the prime suspect (of being precisely Cult Leader)

BlackStar joined in later on, but he was actually there earlier. FA joined BEFORE Jackal but jumped off the wagon. dave joined in late, and RC hammered (which now makes him 2nd suspect in line for “precisely Cult Leader”)

[Kraeg]

well so we have at least two factions and there was a warewolf faction in start

@Mod there are no kill flavors at all? I mean 2 shot means it can't be werewolves move?

@RC I'm town here and after wednesday's flip I wanna believe your too as well .

There is. If a If a Werewolf kills, the victim will be dismemberd. For SK, the victim will be stabbed. For killing roles that uses a gun, target will be shot.

[Kraeg]

Vote Count:

Jackal711[2] - Ranger, Almost50
Smithereens[1] - Jackal711

Not Voting: Frozen Angel, Smithereens, RadiantCowbells, Persivul, BlackStar, Flubbernugget, davesaz

6 votes are needed for a lynch.

(expired on 2016-01-13 23:24:18)

[Frozen Angel]

I need to reread wiki then

this suggests warewolf kill got blocked because we had no dismembered people.

this suggests we have no sk. this is so odd to have 2 kill blocks in 1 day.

this suggests we have a mafia group and another gunman which I need reread to make sure of all possibilities

[RadiantCowbells]

FA can you forgive me for thinking you were a scumbum?

[Frozen Angel]

FA can you forgive me for thinking you were a scumbum?

be town and I will think about it

[davesaz]

Droog was WW and replaced Starbuck.
Does Jackal make sense as teammate to Starbuck/Droog?

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm town.

You can't lynch me anyway.

[Frozen Angel]

Droog was WW and replaced Starbuck.
Does Jackal make sense as teammate to Starbuck/Droog?

we have nothing to suggest that there is another WW around ...

[RadiantCowbells]

Jackal's pretty scummy independently though, wouldn't you agree?

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Jackal

Still very, very happy with this vote.

[Frozen Angel]

there are only 2 possibilities for those gun kills :

mafia factional kill and a vigilant or one of them happened twice because of a motivator.

because doog was so inactive I guess that was a vig kill .

[davesaz]

What if the dead WW was the result of a PGO?
I want to make sure we don't rule out possibilities prematurely.
Two gun kills could be Mafia + Vig, Mafia + PGO, Vig + PGO. Maybe others that I haven't even thought of.
The claimed vig miss doesn't need to be a redirect, it could be a block combined with one of the other possibilities above.
And the nature of the setup allows for multiple vigs or even a WW vig as a possibility.

Pedit: Yeah, but I wanted to specifically ask if being a partner with Starbuck makes sense. Kinda hard to tell with that slot being basically empty...

Pedit2: Sure a wagon is fine but let's allow ourselves enough time for analysis.

[Frozen Angel]

yep I forgot PGO

but I'm really thinking about the vig possibility ...

I'm kind of sure about my RC and almost read. this is definitely my town block. i will reread everyone else later

[RadiantCowbells]

I mean I can't be lynched anyway

:S

[Wednesday_]

KALIMA KALIMA KAALIMAAA! lol I had fun. God never liked survivors anyways. This is my "bah" post.

[Ranger]

Yeah, but I wanted to specifically ask if being a partner with Starbuck makes sense. Kinda hard to tell with that slot being basically empty...

The problem is that if we wait for the slot to produce notable content, in a Blitz, we will never get what we're waiting for...especially if it's continued minimalist posting.

This is why there shouldn't be a stigma against lynching lurkers. Scummy content is scummy content, regardless of how much or how little content there is.

It applied to Starbuck's slot and it applies to Jackal's slot, too.

[Jackal711]

Alright. If my style is going to result in what amounts to a policy lynch due to its scummy nature, fine.

Current reads:
Ranger is town. RC is town. Based on my night action result, I believe FA is town.

UNVOTE: smithereens
Town for now.