Blitz 21 - Hope plus One ―kibou― [End]

[pieguyn]

votecount 1.12

Firebringer (5) - Ranger, PhantomCobalt, Trebuchet MS, Expedience, Antihero

Expedience (4) - Mad King Ashnard, Scatterplot, Sakura Hana、Wisdom
Scatterplot (2) - Firebringer, OceanWind
OceanWind (1) - hiplop
PhantomCobalt (1) - Ankamius

Not voting (0) -

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is January 24, 2:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2016-01-24 02:00:00).

Plotinus head of Scatterplot is V/LA until January 24.

[Ranger]

I'm not 100% on whether either KT or Talah were scum, but I'm 100% on thinking that Expedience is scum.

Can I persuade you to follow me?

It would not be my first choice. But...yes. I could vote there.

[Ranger]

VOTE: Expedience.
Reluctantly.

[Ranger]

{hiplop, Antihero, Wisdom}
{Scatterplot, Trebuchet MS}
{Mad King Ashnard, PhantomCobalt, Sakura Hana, OceanWind}
{Expedience}
{Firebringer}
{Ankamius}

[Scatterplot]

1.)

I think Firebringer is probably town, as Plotinus has noted. Talah continues to be just completely off my radar. Nothing about his wagon has actually sunk in for me at all. I don't think it's bad, I don't think it's good, it's just flat-out boring to me. I think I thought he did townish things but I will get around to remembering what they are and whether they matter later. Ankamius is town, too, by the way.

Hydra dissonance here, why am I town now?

because of the points I mentioned recently about KT. Not dissonance, actually. Ether and I spent a long time reading the thread together yesterday and I liked her observations about KT and I started to see him in a new light as a result. We're in agreement about your slot at the moment. You not townreading Anti is worrying since you seem to know why everyone else is townreading him here.

2.)

Ocean acknowledges that the game moving too fast is a reason a person might not be posting much. He does not acknowledge that 35 pages in 2 real life days is a very fast pace. He notes that she's been talking in site chat as if that means anything at all. Reading a mafia game and scumhunting takes a lot more mental effort that quoting song lyrics in site chat does. When I'm feeling tired, I goof off in site chat, and being able to goof off in site chat does not mean I am capable of responding to game posts. She's also sick.

3.)

I was not buddying Ranger in 166, I was scumhunting her. I wanted to try to understand where she was coming from with her reads. Also, arguing that I should just dismiss her like everyone else does is insulting. Why shouldn't I take everybody seriously? If there's anything that modding games has taught me, it's the players that everybody's ignoring are the ones to pay attention to.

4.)

Tell me more about the top secret mafia theory invention patented by Plotinus that is the OMGUS. Ocean, you have either severely misunderstood what I was saying in that PT or you are misrepresenting me.

@hippyloppy and Anti,

he's talking about how in Butterfly we lynched All Alone because we rolecopped them and learned they were a PR and also because they called the scumteam early with preflip associatives, so I was quick to tell them that preflip associatives were bad mafia theory.

This is not something that happens in every game, because in most games people don't call the scumteam on day 1, and even if it were it is not something you can look for on day 1 unless you know who the scumteam is, and I haven't done it anyway. Nobody has proposed a scumteam with myself on it to my knowledge except maybe Mad King but I was ignoring him.

5.)

Ocean, I am worried that going onto the offense directly on replacing in would, you hope, make it look like any return attacks against you were just OMGUS, especially with you bringing up your, to put it charitably, misunderstanding, of what happened with All Alone in Butterfly.

Ocean

: Plot attacks people who are right when they are scum. (there is a kernel of truth to this but it is is not always true and is not as simplistic as he's making it out to be)

Ocean

: Ether is scum because psychological stuff that I pushed her on when I was scum against her last time.

Scatterplot

: *makes any attack at all in response to this on Ocean*

Ocean

: see, it's just like I said, Plot is just OMGUSing like they do when they're scum.

You're pre-emptively setting up a situation in which you can paint me as looking bad for any response I make to your case and that is scummy.

6.)

None of Plotinus's scumreads are dangerous or against-the-grain or give me any new insights into any other player. They are all safe and cautious.

This is not how I usually play as scum.

Spiffeh

, did you see anything like this at all from me in History?

hiplop & anti

, did I play like this in Butterfly?

Ankamius

, when I replaced into a literally unwinnable situation in Hitchcock, was this how I played? In that game I was in a 1v1 so I couldn't choose who my target was but I felt I made insightful arguments against them anyway.

--P

[Scatterplot]

I am still okay with the Expedience wagon!

OceanWind is wrong about me, but he's wrong in ways that he genuinely believes and that his own experiences have given him every reason to believe. (Well, except the Mutant bit. But I don't think he misinterpreted that maliciously, either.) Even if he's scum, I think he replaced into this game thinking his case was accurate. When he's online, could he let me know?

...Wisdom's townread on me is kind of bugging me, actually. Based on Chosen, I get why he has it, I've got no complaints there. I am less impressed that he did absolutely nothing about it while we were at -2, and has only ever used it to yell ineffectively at tunnelers. It just feels like a prop.

The main thing that's making me hesitate on Wisdom was a throwaway scumteam, in 372. It was targetting the weakest links so blatantly that it seemed more likely to come from town, especially since tried similar as town in Chosen early on and wound up PoEing everyone but two relatively weaker players.

But, uh, actually I do think Phantom and Expedience are scum. I'm...not sure if that makes this better or worse.

-Ether

[PhantomCobalt]

I like that post ^

[Ankamius]

I looked back at Hitchcock and agree that it's not as simple as trying to blend into the background and be safe. Plot openly went after the single most difficult player to 1v1 and went all out on it once day began.

[Scatterplot]

Hey, Phantom. What do you think about Expedience?

-Ether

[Mad King Ashnard]

That's why I had bad feelings against Plot at the beginning to be honest.

[OceanWind]

UNVOTE: Scatterplot
VOTE: Firebringer

This is the next best outcome if Scatterplot isn't viable today.

Ether knows she can't scumread me or else she'd be scumclaiming so that's the sort of response I expected from her while Plotinus pushes back.

I'll be amused to see the results of them "discussing" me in their hydra thread to sort out their hydra dissonance.

---

@Ranger -

why are you

reluctantly

switching over to Expedience when Firebringer was the larger wagon and also a stronger scumread for you?

---

I was not buddying Ranger in 166, I was scumhunting her. I wanted to try to understand where she was coming from with her reads.

If you wanted to scumhunt Ranger, you'd be asking her for the reasons, not supplying them yourself. I'd have more convinced if you said you were allowing Ranger to scumhunt you and see that you are town. If Ranger is mafia and you give good reasons for her reads, it's easy for her to agree or say that you are accurate even if she had no good reason for the reads in the first place.

Nobody has proposed a scumteam with myself on it to my knowledge

For a player like you who is good at persuading people who are townreading you, but are bad at getting people off your back when they are convinced you are mafia, your optimal move when someone correctly nails you would be to push their lynch. All Alone was an extreme case where All Alone correctly pegged the entire team but the general case applies as well.

You're pre-emptively setting up a situation in which you can paint me as looking bad for any response I make to your case and that is scummy.

If I was right about you being scum, I fully expected an omgus from you. But my case was more about how you were scumreading Expedience, KTthecreeper, and Talah and how that was scummy based on your past games.

Ocean: Ether is scum because psychological stuff that I pushed her on when I was scum against her last time.

This is the most absurd interpretation of my post. I posted the link about Ether to show Ether talking about how she hates being scum.

---

@Ether -

I'll be online off and on today. I'll check in in an hour from now.

Ether and I spent a long time reading the thread together yesterday and I liked her observations about KT and I started to see him in a new light as a result.

Please post what these observations are in detail. If you spent such a long time on it, you should be able to do this.

It was targetting the weakest links so blatantly that it seemed more likely to come from town, especially since tried similar as town in Chosen early on and wound up PoEing everyone but two relatively weaker players.

It was targetting the weakest links so blatantly that it seemed more likely to come from town, especially since tried similar as town in Chosen early on and wound up PoEing everyone but two relatively weaker players.

What makes you think Wisdom would hesitate from attacking all the weaker players if he were mafia?

---

I looked back at Hitchcock and agree that it's not as simple as trying to blend into the background and be safe. Plot openly went after the single most difficult player to 1v1 and went all out on it once day began.

Plotinus had no choice then. Several other players were confirmed town. So, instead of attacking stronger players, you think they'd have attacked confirmed townies? Plotinus also barely spent any time at all in the Hitchcock game replacing in almost near the end. The situation here vs there is so different that I'm perplexed as to why you are just taking this at face value without questioning anything.

[Mad King Ashnard]

My interpretation right now is that Talah/Expedience is actually a correct scumteam and that Ocean is hard pushing counterwagons to himself/Expedience because he knows that Expedience's fall will immediately lead to his own. The Firebringer vote plays into that interpretation.

That said, if Expedience flips town I will obviously reevaluate.

[Trebuchet MS]

{Fire, MKA, [???]}

[Trebuchet MS]

actually I'd put Sakura in there, just not sure which slot

[Mad King Ashnard]

{Exped, Talah??, Trebuchet MS}

[Trebuchet MS]

^ Lol

~Spiffy

[Mad King Ashnard]

Did I just call it or did I just call it?

[Wisdom]

Ocean feels way more aggressive than he felt last game. I could buy the scenario of him being scum with Expedience.

[Scatterplot]

Why would Ether scumreading you be a scumclaim, Ocean?

If you wanted to scumhunt Ranger, you'd be asking her for the reasons, not supplying them yourself. I'd have more convinced if you said you were allowing Ranger to scumhunt you and see that you are town. If Ranger is mafia and you give good reasons for her reads, it's easy for her to agree or say that you are accurate even if she had no good reason for the reads in the first place.

You don't understand how I approach the game very well then. This isn't how Ranger responded to my post. She engaged with me, she pointed out where I went wrong in my guesses about her reads, her answers showed me that she wasn't just agreeing passively that I got everything right but that was there depth behind her naked readslists, that she could have backed up any of those reads in detail if she wanted to. I got a lot more out of trying to guess her reasons and her correcting me than I would have got out of just demanding explanations from her. Also, when I was an innocent child, I posted this "readslist"

Spoiler: readslist

I have:

• 2 townreads
  
• 2 townleans
  
• 2 people that I want to see wagonned
  
• 1 current wagon that i'm happy with
  
• 1 current wagon that i'm indifferent to.
  
• 3 people that I need more time to think about and a suspicion that 1-2 scum are in this group
  
• 3 people that I think would be easy mislynches if they're town but could easily be scum. (this doesn't overlap much with the above group)
  
• 2 people whose playstyles I don't think I understand very well yet and some evidence that this is affecting my read on them.
  
• 1 awesome hydra partner

~Murgatroyd

I got a lot more out of other people trying to guess which names were in which category than I got out of people demanding names (though in retrospect it was mostly the scumteam that wouldn't let it go and kept pressing me to give out names). Doing it in reverse here was useful to me. It wasn't busywork. Both Ranger and I got something out of it.

For a player like you who is good at persuading people who are townreading you,

but are bad at getting people off your back when they are convinced you are mafia

, your optimal move when someone correctly nails you would be to push their lynch.

????

If anything, I've been working on

not

dismantling cases against me, as both alignments, because as scum it prevents the "why are you still alive" problem, or in some setups the "crosskilled on night 1" problem, and as town it helps me to live to the stages of the game where I'm more useful.

If I was right about you being scum, I fully expected an omgus from you.

How are you interpretting the lack of one, then?

But my case was more about how you were scumreading Expedience, KTthecreeper, and Talah and how that was scummy based on your past games.

Provide citations of me exclusively going after low hanging fruit as scum in past games.

This is the most absurd interpretation of my post. I posted the link about Ether to show Ether talking about how she hates being scum.

Well, it bothered me. It didn't bother Ether, though, and I'll trust her on that.

Please post what these observations are in detail. If you spent such a long time on it, you should be able to do this.

Mod, do I have permission to quote a block of text from skype?

I can't allow this, sorry.

Summarising hours and hours of AIM logs is not an easy task. Today alone (just counting from when I restarted aim this afternoon, so missing the morning conversation), the word count is above 2000. I am not going to do this for all of our logs because it's busywork and i don't have time for it. Also, I don't know if the mod allows even in a summary. Doing so would confirm our slot as town, and I haven't had a completed towngame that I wasn't an innocent child or mason in since August.

@Mod: would a paraphrase of chat logs also be disallowed?

We currently think [expedience/phantom/???], though. Phantom didn't do the towntell in response to being townread that I was hoping for.

Plotinus had no choice then. Several other players were confirmed town. So, instead of attacking stronger players, you think they'd have attacked confirmed townies?

They were confirmed by own night actions. I did mess up the nightkill due to not understanding role interactions, but if I had killed somebody else then I would have been in a different 1v1. But the point is not who I went after in that specific game, but the manner in which I went after them, and the points I brought up against them. If I were the sort of player who had so much difficulty playing as scum that I could only blend into the background and go after easy targets, I would not be the sort of player who attacked nacho from the angles I attacked him, in a situation where I was placed at L-1 before I woke up and I had to talk people into unvoting before nacho could awaken (and even if I successfully lynched him that day everybody else was confirmed town, so I could have just conceded and nobody would have thought worse of me.)

--P

[Antihero]

My interpretation right now is that Talah/Expedience is actually a correct scumteam and that Ocean is hard pushing counterwagons to himself/Expedience because he knows that Expedience's fall will immediately lead to his own. The Firebringer vote plays into that interpretation.

That said, if Expedience flips town I will obviously reevaluate.

and here i am thinking that this random last minute counterwagon to firebringer is awfully convenient

but, you know... i guess i see the rabbit and you see the duck

[Ankamius]

I'm here if anyone wants to talk.

[Ankamius]

I don't have the ability to make well thought out, detailed posts ATM, so YMMV.

[Scatterplot]

Ankamius, do you tend to read the games you mod? (Ether doesn't, I usually do but sometimes I skim). We noticed that you recently modded open 617 in which Expedience and Phantom were playing on opposing scum teams.

--P

[Ankamius]

I lightly skim games I'm not playing in. That type of thing falls under the same thing that I was bitching about earlier regarding meta, so I'm wary to analyze them based on that game regardless.

[Ankamius]

Regardless, the activity in that game was low enough that I doubt the game can even be compared to a relatively high activity game like this one.