Newbie 1673: University of Mafiascum Class 108 - D4- OVER!

[Extrapolated Eagle]

And that's because Huntress opened with vote on work, which I think is unlikely as scum.

[newbieinmafia]

Just because I don't really show emotions, doesn't mean I am scum though. I can't even defend myself against it because it's just how I play.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

Just because I don't really show emotions, doesn't mean I am scum though. I can't even defend myself against it because it's just how I play.

I know. It makes me feel bad because that's why I pushed a dier lynch in the last newbie game I played and ... yeah. You people can be hard to read. Right now I just want huntress lynched and then move from there.

[Usted]

Just because I don't really show emotions, doesn't mean I am scum though. I can't even defend myself against it because it's just how I play.

I know. It makes me feel bad because that's why I pushed a dier lynch in the last newbie game I played and ... yeah. You people can be hard to read. Right now I just want huntress lynched and then move from there.

I don't like this. You just want to lynch Huntress and move from there? You realize we have 7 people right now and 2 Mafia. That means that if we mislynch today and Mafia gets off a kill tonight we are in Lylo.

Let's play a little more carefully. Also a tad disappointed that Huntress said they would be active today and still isn't.

[Usted]

Lynch me before we lynch soul, that's how certain I am in my town read of him.

Honestly not a fan of that tactic. Scum tell imo. "I'm such a noble VT you can lynch me"

[Extrapolated Eagle]

Lynch me before we lynch soul, that's how certain I am in my town read of him.

Honestly not a fan of that tactic. Scum tell imo. "I'm such a noble VT you can lynch me"

It was an expression. :/

[Workdawg]

Sorry guys, I've had a really busy past few days and haven't had a chance to really keep up. Thankfully not a lot of posting has gone on, so I haven't missed much. I have one long catchup post, but I'm going to break it into a few posts to make it easier for people to quote/reply if they feel the need. First up...

Recent point of discussion.

Scum on Ness' wagon?

Anyone else feel that both scums could have been riding the ness train?

Workdawg's logic does make some sense: Since most everyone was leaning into the Ness lynch, scum would be pretty likely to just let it happen without their vote --

maybe they'd voice some non-committal support for it to seem like they were part of the mob mentality, but otherwise it would have been smartest to stay out of it.

...

And that's exactly why I was getting a scum read on Usted before he claimed. Obviously the Ness wagon was a bit of a cluster with people unvoting at L-1 and revoting, etc. And with all the other non-vote support... it's just so hard to figure out. Like I said before, literally everyone voiced commitment to the wagon, but only the people actually on the wagon at the end (Soul, Work, Newbie, Kahlan, EE) had actually voted for him. The other 3 (Huntress, Usted, Drixx) had simply stated intent but had never actually been on the wagon. I think the fact those those three had never even voted support the idea that one of them is scum even more, however, of course both scum could be on that wagon. They could have started it, hopped on in the middle, or gotten on at the end. I've already gone into why I brought this line up. It's big ball of WIFOM.

[Workdawg]

...
Here is one of my theories as I see playing out right now...

Soul/EE

Soul started the wagon on ness and EE finished it.
...
Here are some other team I think I could see too..
Soul/Workdawg
Workdawg/EE


Okay all three of these gentlemen are smooth talkers and can talk themselves out of almost anything I say and which of course causes me to doubt but if we are going off reads and gut feelings I think it might make it a bit easier... lol maybe.

Here are my reads

Usted

Going off his reads and claim I think he is more than likely town especially since no one had disproved his claim.

newbie and huntress

read/feel as town to me

Workdawg

I will say even putting him as a possible scum team^^ I think I'm leaning more town with him. That doesnt mean I'm completely sold but he saying a few thing lately I agree with.

EE

Ah EE I know I will probably be hearing from you but I feel right now EE could be scum. He is very quick to attack those who call him out or vote for him.

Soul

seems like scum to me at the moment. He is really good at writing posts but I felt that by him breaking down usted claim was actually worse then usted actually claiming. It was like he was trying to find out which exact role usted had or find the other PRT. If he is town then analyzing it probably wasn't wise choice because scum found out more information to help them possibly win.


VOTE: Soul

You say you are leaning town on me, but then you throw me in with your two scum reads and say that literally all possible combinations of EE, Soul, and me are your scum team reads? I guess I'm just pretty much your third scum read, despite you saying I am leaning town. Normally you should be looking for interaction between the two players that indicates a scumteam. Your argument for EE/Soul might have been valid if it were accurate. As Newbie pointed out, soul didn't start that wagon though.

[soulmonarch]

Re 495: How did soul start the Ness wagon though? I and Workdawg are already voting for Ness by the time soul voted. By that, you can even say I started Ness wagon.
About EE, him hammering Ness is not scummy. Before he voted, others (Drixx, Usted and Huntress) had express the intent to hammer. It's only a matter of time before Ness is lynched.
What about Huntress feels like town? because I am not seeing it.

The thing that really sucks about the Ness wagon is that everyone was either already on the wagon or waiting to hammer.

Personally, I know that my original claim on him was a pretty weak theory, just fishing for reactions. And his first response to it (186) was to just give up altogether, which set the tone for the rest of the day. Yeah, a number of people had legit suspicions or questions for Ness -- but the thing that really seemed to do him in was that he just plain never defended himself. (Which is what I was whining about in 344.)

Anyway, my choices right now are Huntress or Workdawg.

Primarily by process of elimination. Obviously, I'm considering Usted as confirmed town. I tend to see EE and Kahlan as town at the moment. Newbie too -- but I'll caveat by saying that I won't be terribly surprised if we get to the end of the game and find out she was actually just a really good actor.

In terms of order: Huntress first, because her play right now would be very wise if she were scum and I don't have any particular reason at present to think she's town. Workdawg second, because I feel like I'm playing a hunch on him, rather than relying on specific evidence.

[Workdawg]

Lynch me before we lynch soul, that's how certain I am in my town read of him.

I just doubt scum would get into a discussion like that over power roles. It seems like it only makes him look scummier. And I was town reading him before that and agree with his views. I've gone to say things and then seen them better said by soul. Very not interested in his lynch today.

I don't really like that first post, and that followup... Defending your partner with some WIFOM?

Huntress is number one.

Strong town are kahlan and soul, with Usted, although I agree with soul he seems a bit.. shady about the ordeal. Newbie is... nullish. Detached. As does workdawg, but I'd prefer a newbie lynch over work, I think/.

And that's because Huntress opened with vote on work, which I think is unlikely as scum.

What? These are consecutive posts. Huntress is number one, because of an action that is unlikely as scum? Are you replying to different things here or what, because that makes NO sense at all.

[Workdawg]

OMFG, how did soul sneak a post in between my walls?

My conclusion to all of that. VOTE: EE
My last post with the set of quotes from him shows a lot of, interesting, things for him to say. That with his recent flip flopping on his read of Kahlan has me very nervous about him.

Outside of that soul hasn't done anything to drop my scum read on him, but EE's recent posts have caused him to climb fast.
Huntress remains a frustrating slot of course. Never officially gone V/LA and has managed to post just enough to avoid a prod recently, but has posted so little that I just don't know. Unfortunately, the deadline is coming up soon and I'm afraid of going ANOTHER day without being to get a read on this slot.

[soulmonarch]

OMFG, how did soul sneak a post in between my walls?

Yeah, sorry. Didn't mean to interrupt.

Huntress remains a frustrating slot of course. Never officially gone V/LA and has managed to post just enough to avoid a prod recently, but has posted so little that I just don't know. Unfortunately, the deadline is coming up soon and I'm afraid of going ANOTHER day without being to get a read on this slot.

Yeah. Don't like that this game has had so much of that, but there's not much to do for it.

[Zar]

Day 2, Votecount 10, Ammended

Huntress (2): Extrapolated Eagle, Usted
Extrapolated Eagle (1): Workdawg
soulmonarch (1): Kahlan
Workdawg (1): Huntress

Not Voting (2)

: soulmonarch, newbieinmafia

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Tuesday January 27, 2016 11:15 PM  New York Time. (GMT-5)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-01-28 00:15:00)

Spoiler: Incorrect VC

Day 2, Votecount 10

Huntress (2): Extrapolated Eagle, Usted
Extrapolated Eagle (1): Workdawg
soulmonarch (1): Kahlan
Workdawg (1): Huntress

Not Voting (2)

: soulmonarch, newbieinmafia

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Tuesday January 27, 2016 11:15 PM  New York Time. (GMT-5)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-01-28 00:15:00)

[Extrapolated Eagle]

Lynch me before we lynch soul, that's how certain I am in my town read of him.

I just doubt scum would get into a discussion like that over power roles. It seems like it only makes him look scummier. And I was town reading him before that and agree with his views. I've gone to say things and then seen them better said by soul. Very not interested in his lynch today.

I don't really like that first post, and that followup... Defending your partner with some WIFOM?

Huntress is number one.

Strong town are kahlan and soul, with Usted, although I agree with soul he seems a bit.. shady about the ordeal. Newbie is... nullish. Detached. As does workdawg, but I'd prefer a newbie lynch over work, I think/.

And that's because Huntress opened with vote on work, which I think is unlikely as scum.

What? These are consecutive posts. Huntress is number one, because of an action that is unlikely as scum? Are you replying to different things here or what, because that makes NO sense at all.

Ugh. No, silly. I'm saying it's unlikely you're scum with huntress because she opened with a vote on you. I'm not saying that makes her any more or less scummy, I'm saying it makes it more likely that youre scum together.

*facepalm*

[Extrapolated Eagle]

I'm going to "climb fast" if you intentionally misread my posts, buddy.

[Kahlan]

Re 495: How did soul start the Ness wagon though? I and Workdawg are already voting for Ness by the time soul voted. By that, you can even say I started Ness wagon.
About EE, him hammering Ness is not scummy. Before he voted, others (Drixx, Usted and Huntress) had express the intent to hammer. It's only a matter of time before Ness is lynched.
What about Huntress feels like town? because I am not seeing it.

Re 497: EE, who are your top two scum?

@newbie I'm sorry that was actually a typo on my part. I meant to say that soul stayed on the ness wagon. I thought I had changed it. When I wrote the post I wrote a very long post and ended up deleting most of it and was rewriting it. I thought I had fixed it but I guess I didnt. I thought it interesting that he would stay on the ness wagon and his vote never changed. Granted votes don't really need to change if you have good reason but his vote stayed the same through the rest of day one. Now with you pointing out that you and workdawg started the ness wagon.. It has me thinking if we base it off what eagle said about in his experience scum usually rides the middle of the wagon and if I'm right in thinking that both scum were on the wagon that would mean scum might very well be you newbie, workdawg ,or me. I know for sure I am not scum so that would leave newbie and workdawg. So based off that little theroy I would say i no longer vote for soul I'll

VOTE: Newbie

Also I just feel like huntress is town but I also don't have a lot to really good by in the ways of reads yet. I'll wait until she actually plays more like she said she would to actually say for sure if she is scum or not. I think if she was telling the truth about playing more that she should have the chance to play. But If you don't feel like huntress is town then why aren't you pushing to lynch her with eagle?

I haven't had the chance to read all the other post yet but I'll try my best to respond to some today.

[Huntress]

Also a tad disappointed that Huntress said they would be active today and still isn't.

Actually I said after Saturday. I was too tired last night to get on to this but I'm around now. As to my activitiy, looking back over the last few days I have been as active as you have so I think your complaint here is spurious. What did you want from me that I haven't given?

If anyone is withholding a counterclaim against Usted for any reason, please don't. Even just a statement that you are able to counterclaim would be sufficient at this stage as it would mean a definite scum lynch either this Day or next. If you risk waiting, and next Day is lylo, then you will not be believed and we would be likely to lose as a result.

Huntress remains a frustrating slot of course. Never officially gone V/LA and has managed to post just enough to avoid a prod recently, but has posted so little that I just don't know. Unfortunately, the deadline is coming up soon and I'm afraid of going ANOTHER day without being to get a read on this slot.

What have you done to try to get a read on me? I didn't declare vla because I haven't been absent. I've been reading and responding to stuff but just haven't had the time to dig a bit deeper into the motives behind all the recent posts. I do have that time now.

[Workdawg]

I'm going to "climb fast" if you intentionally misread my posts, buddy.

Doh, sorry. That actually makes sense. I pointed out that they were consecutive but didn't actually read them as one paragraph. My bad.

[Workdawg]

Huntress remains a frustrating slot of course. Never officially gone V/LA and has managed to post just enough to avoid a prod recently, but has posted so little that I just don't know. Unfortunately, the deadline is coming up soon and I'm afraid of going ANOTHER day without being to get a read on this slot.

What have you done to try to get a read on me? I didn't declare vla because I haven't been absent. I've been reading and responding to stuff but just haven't had the time to dig a bit deeper into the motives behind all the recent posts. I do have that time now.

I suppose that's fair. The rest of us, aside from Newbie have been posting pretty large posts. Newbie has been consistently doing so from the start, but has also been pretty thorough in explaining things that require it. Maybe that's why it seems like you haven't been contributing much. That's not to say that you have to post a wall of text for me to get a read on you, it's just that when comparing you to everyone else, it doesn't seem like there is a lot to work with.

I went back and reviewed your ISO (and of course context where required) to try and better get a read on you and I think what's bothering me/making you hard to read for me is that you are pretty vague. Up until post 482 you hadn't really presented a case on anyone. You mention a couple little tidbits here and there (such as my "crocodile tears" over Drixx), but mostly you keep saying things about how you are rereading and your gut says this or that. Those kinds of things aren't really providing content for us. I guess maybe I should engage you more, as you suggested.

[Workdawg]

I've been trying to find what gave me that gut read on Workdawg but apart from the following from post 85 I can't find anything definite in his ISO. I suspect it might have been some interaction that added to the read I had from 85.

As of last Monday (post 443) you claim to have read the thread about 3 times. Along with your original read on me (post 335, you said you wanted to review the wagons and other people. Did nothing come of that?

From that post I had the impression he was buddying up to Drixx.

I guess I can see how that might appear that way. I was actually a little bit concerned about Drixx's play at the time because he and I were together in my previous newbie game. At the time, the game hadn't finished yet (Newbie 1666) so I couldn't directly refer to it. His play during D1 in that game seemed different from his play in D1 in this game, so I was very weary of him. I was trying to make people take a closer look at what he was calling tells (by implying that things he says are tells maybe aren't really). It's a moot point now though.

Also, only

nine hours

into the game he is listing post counts and complaining that less than half the players in the thread have posted much more than a confirm/rvs vote and calling them lurkers, which is a misuse of the term. He then makes the point about votes being one of town's greatest tools and not letting his go to waste, then goes and votes for a player who he knows is on vla.

I suppose you are correct here as well, 9 hours isn't a ton. However, there were 85 posts during that time (9 per hour!) and having confirmed and come back to finding that, it certainly seemed like a lot had gone (and it obviously had). The only people who hadn't posted more than a couple of times were TheDom and me. So everyone else had a chance to chime in a few times, but why weren't some of them saying more? It just seemed like with all that was going on, it would be easy for a scum to lurk in there.

As for voting for TheDom, if you noticed when I voted for him, I mentioned that he was officially V/LA, but he also managed to show up during that time and put an "RVS" vote on EE. That seems like a bit of a stretch. Obviously you now know whether that slot is scum and will know if he was being opportunistic with that vote or if you really are town and that might really have been RVS. You can't know for sure his intent obviously, but you can make an educated guess. The rest of us don't have that luxury to look back and probably know what's going on. At the time it looked scummy, and no one else did, so I was voting for the scummiest person at the time. I hardly think that's a waste of the vote even if he's V/LA.

[newbieinmafia]

Now with you pointing out that you and workdawg started the ness wagon.. It has me thinking if we base it off what eagle said about in his experience scum usually rides the middle of the wagon and if I'm right in thinking that both scum were on the wagon that would mean scum might very well be you newbie, workdawg ,or me.

I am confused as to why you are looking at those who started the wagon if you are basing it off what Eagle had said. He said scum rides in the middle, so wouldn't you look at middle then? And why me over Work? What about me that you find is scummy?

Also I just feel like huntress is town but I also don't have a lot to really good by in the ways of reads yet. I'll wait until she actually plays more like she said she would to actually say for sure if she is scum or not. I think if she was telling the truth about playing more that she should have the chance to play. But If you don't feel like huntress is town then why aren't you pushing to lynch her with eagle?

I was voting for Huntress. I unvoted after reading Soul response to your question. It made me look at the wagon again to see who voted and who didn't. I missed that 3 out of 4 not on the wagon are confirmed town. So if I am calculating the probability correct (it had always been my weak point in math though), the chances of both scum being on the wagon are higher.

Due to a lack of content, I don't find her actions necessarily scummy but it's not helping the town either. As town, one should also be contributing to allow others to read them. If we get to lylo, it won't be good to leave a spot that doesn't give you a lot of read because you can't just rely on gut alone. That is why I asked you what you find about Huntress is town.

I did find one thing I liked about that spot but it was when Dom was there. Others will probably feel indifferent about what I liked though.

And me being fine with her lynch and me wanting to push her is completely different. If you look at my iso, I am not the type to push others a lot. I will leave that to those who push to get reads, like Eagle or Workdawg.

[newbieinmafia]

*I missed that 3 out of 4 on the wagon are confirmed town.
Sorry, I don't know how 'not' got in there.

[newbieinmafia]

Nevermind. Ignore what I said on 521. My initial post was correct~ my mind is not working well today.

[Kahlan]

Now with you pointing out that you and workdawg started the ness wagon.. It has me thinking if we base it off what eagle said about in his experience scum usually rides the middle of the wagon and if I'm right in thinking that both scum were on the wagon that would mean scum might very well be you newbie, workdawg ,or me.

I am confused as to why you are looking at those who started the wagon if you are basing it off what Eagle had said. He said scum rides in the middle, so wouldn't you look at middle then? And why me over Work? What about me that you find is scummy?

@newbie I was just basing it off a theory that if scum started the wagon (in this case you and workdawg) but then didn't want to look like scum so they pulled back but revote later ending up in the middle of the wagon. Which would make Eagle's post come into play. That scum usually rides in the middle. Now if that is true then maybe both or only one scum member was riding in the middle. As of right now I chose you based off scum possibly being in the middle. It may not be the best reason. I kind of wanted to see how things would played out a bit but you have been the only other person who seems to see the higher possibility that both scum were on the ness wagon.(bold part below) If you think that then why are you okay with huntress being lynched when she wasn't on the wagon? Who would be your top scum picks? (Especially basing off of both scum players were on the wagon)

Also I just feel like huntress is town but I also don't have a lot to really good by in the ways of reads yet. I'll wait until she actually plays more like she said she would to actually say for sure if she is scum or not. I think if she was telling the truth about playing more that she should have the chance to play. But If you don't feel like huntress is town then why aren't you pushing to lynch her with eagle?

I was voting for Huntress. I unvoted after reading Soul response to your question. It made me look at the wagon again to see who voted and who didn't. I missed that 3 out of 4 not on the wagon are confirmed town. So if I am calculating the probability correct (it had always been my weak point in math though), the chances of both scum being on the wagon are higher.

1. Due to a lack of content, I don't find her actions necessarily scummy but it's not helping the town either.

As town, one should also be contributing to allow others to read them. If we get to lylo, it won't be good to leave a spot that doesn't give you a lot of read because you can't just rely on gut alone. That is why I asked you what you find about Huntress is town.

I did find one thing I liked about that spot but it was when Dom was there. Others will probably feel indifferent about what I liked though.

2. And me being fine with her lynch and me wanting to push her is completely different. If you look at my iso, I am not the type to push others a lot. I will leave that to those who push to get reads, like Eagle or Workdawg.

1. This is almost the exact reason Ness was lynched at the end. Lack of content or the lack of content people seemed to want. Apparently some of the town are bad at posting content like everyone else on here seems to want. Which would also mean that maybe our two scum players are very good at posting and putting the content out there to make it seem that if you aren't post like they are then your more than likely scum. So I would say yes her lack of content isn't helping the town but what if the bar for the content wanted/ expected is a little high because of scum?

2. Now I understand that you don't push reads and that not what I was suggesting on your part. I was simply stating if you think she is scum and would like to see her lynched then why aren't you voting for her (again) now in order to have her lynched?

[newbieinmafia]

@Kahlan -I am sorry but I just can't follow that theory. The fact that Eagle stated way in the beginning that scum usually are in the middle of a wagon, wouldn't scum be careful of not staying in the middle? This has WIFOM all over it that I wouldn't use it as a way to find scum.

Just because there is a higher possibility of both scum on Ness wagon, it doesn't make Huntress completely town. Especially if people can't give me at least one action of hers that makes them town-read her. From what I have read, they either have her as null (because of lack of content) or scum (through PoE or for being helpful to town).

For day 2, my top two picks are Soul and Huntress (I have stated this in my previous post). But if you want me to pick both from Ness wagon, then Soul and Work (because I like Eagle as town even though I go back and forth for him as town or null). I like Work's reasoning though so I don't want him lynched today.

1. Ness was not lynched completely due to lack of content. Go look at Ness iso and Huntress/Dom iso, they are different.

2. I don't see the need to vote for her now. I can vote for her later in the day if her posts still haven't convinced me that she's town.