Blitz 24: Great Idea Mafia

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F I R S T
VOTE: Lane0168

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let's see who has the hairy chest

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on the other hand, I could see someone actually claiming miller (but obviously its stupid to do so)

why is it stupid to do so? I see millers claim miller all the time

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I don't have much yet other than I think lilith is town here

tbh everyone's posting so far looks town but I know some of you (RC, lane) have fooled me as scum before

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that's fine, doesn't change my read that you're probably town

I think I'll sheep itlepip onto Ranger here and see where that leads
VOTE: Ranger

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because thats a scummy as shit claim

so when you're miller, you don't claim?

Millers don't claim to save themselves, they claim to stop the cop from wasting an investigation and then outing themselves

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yeah I wouldn't policy lynch a miller but I wouldn't grant them towncred for their claim either. It's basically a completely null action in terms of evaluating alignment but it's pro-town to do if you are in fact a miller because it keeps the cop hidden.

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town!lilith was pretty passive in Word Sneak mafia

I wanted to pour syrup on a lot of her posts

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lane - why are you voting SRMP, exactly?

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My Ranger vote feels stale and I don't think I want her to be the leading wagon.

VOTE: Persivul

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Lane stop being so towny, its messing up my Lane meta.

can you explain this?

What is your Lane meta and why is his play in this game messing it up?

Because if I squint real hard, it looks like saying this implies that you already know Lane's alignment

VOTE: itlepip

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If you don't know what to make of it, how is it messing up your meta?

if Lane is normally not being town, what does that normally tell you about his alignment?

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EBWOP my second question - if Lane is normally not being town, what do you normally think his alignment is? What are your past games with Lane?

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hmph okay, that's fair. What's your read on Persivul?

tbh I wouldn't rule out scumreading lane for looking super townie, in Five Night's at Freddy's Mafia (which was coincidentally also modded by lucky), he had me very seriously considering lynching my cop inno result over him. Although part of that was because him bringing cop me to LYLO with a player that I greenchecked was an aggressive gamble.

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i doubt RC is saying all of this because he literally only wants to clear himself

there are like 100+ roles in the setup, check them out

some of them are scum that benefit from being targeted tho. or if scum!RC has a teammate who can use their ability on him for scum gain (like a Mafia Cupid that's not RC, using it on RC)

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mfw there's probably not even a cop or a doc in the game

itlepip what's your Persivul read

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i'm of the opinion that nobody should target RC tonight and just let him show us he's town by play

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yeah but there's also Mafia fruit vendor, so it won't prove anything

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Where's your swagger this game RC? I feel like you normally wouldn't be afraid of a push from me

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Exactly, so why do you think I'm sitting around planning to use you as a mislynch?

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Because I'm worried you could be scum planning something

and even if you are town and this is a foolproof plan to clear you, then you might eat the NK anyway

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and even if you are town and this is a foolproof plan to clear you, then you might eat the NK anyway

why would you vote for someone you think would eat a nightkill? Personally I'm fine with a fruitvendor taking a NK.

pedit: what persivul said as well is right.

I'm not voting for Radiant.

Still waiting for your read on Persivul

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Persivul's 247: nice summary. Where's the analysis?

No one is engaging me for a 1v1 this game.

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in fact I'd be happy with an itlepip lynch today given that he's ignored the same question three times now and just grossly misrepped me by talking about a vote that I never made.

We have 11 hours, people need to commit to a wagon at this point.

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Actually Pers' 247 is some misreppy shit. "weak questioning" to itlepip? What exactly was 'weak' about it?

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There's definitely scum in itlepip/Persivul

Itlepip, what's the difference between my town play and my play here?

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And give me your fucking Persivul read!

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isn't something that is protown towny? I mean I agree that it is NAI but if you think claiming is protown then by definition it is towny.

No it's not, it's only townie in hindsight. I cannot possibly know whether she is a miller or not, so it does nothing for her alignment for Bme. But if she IS a miller, it helps town to claim it because it protects the cop.

You voted Ranger expressly for pressure right, why did you suddenly "not want her to the leading wago"?

Because I got town vibes from her series of posts between 149-153 and my vote for her was never for a good reason anyway. I wanted to see how people reacted to it, and it seemed like there weren't any useful reactions.

You never explained how it seemed like I know Lane's alignment

Because you're asserting that his play this game is changing how you will read him in the future when you shouldn't know what his alignment is in this game. If lane is scum here, and he normally looks scammer when he's town, then this game wouldn't mess up your meta at all.

If I adequatly addressed what you were accusing me of why are you still voting me? Like you said that my point was valid, and you seem to trying to go back to Persivul, but you keep your vote on me for no known reason.

Because you literally never answered my Persivul question - even now, you gave me a dodge - and I was nowhere near sold on you being town yet. I'm still not.

This post was so much more confident in the RC scum world that I just assumed you were voting for RC. But apparently missing a vote is "grossly misrepping"

How is saying "you could be scum" soooo confident that you assume I'm voting him? And more importantly -

what kind of townie assumes someone is voting someone else without seeing the vote

Also 247 is analysis, you might not like the analysis, but lines like "He looks like scum who's just floating trial balloons and hoping one of them will fly without really pushing any of them. " are the definition of analysis. You haven't actually addressed the points in 247, just took 2 words and attacked them and then called the post out for not having analysis.

I don't feel the need to argue with Persivul's 247, it's a horrendous case based on nothing alignment indicative. The fact that you call it "amazing" is comical, and the quality of the post will speak for itself on my flip.

The thing is, Persivul has a history of boneheaded pushes as town so I'd rather gauge his intentions via his other posts rather than just wasting time defending myself from him.

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To succinctly clarify my thoughts on this stupid miller point -

Ranger claiming miller is townier than a miller not claiming miller
Ranger claiming miller is not townier (or scummier) than a non-miller townie not claiming miller.

So if she's a miller, it's the correct townie play, but since we can't know whether she's a miller or not, it means nothing.

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GL, how are you so certain there's one scum between itle and Persivul?

I'm not really certain but I think it's likely, and I hyperbolized it both because I'm annoyed and because it's more likely to get reactions. Whenever I feel like I'm probably going to be lynched, I try to grill the people voting me as much as I can to at least help town get something out of it.

They're both making the worst possible votes in the game (FMPOV), and RC is an easy person for scum to sheep. itle's vote on me is especially bad, consider I don't feel that he's really giving me detailed answers to my questions:

"What's your read on Persivul?"
"don't have a read but his case on you is amazing"

"What's different about my town game and my play here?"
"your play this game is literal garbage"

Also I think you, Ranger, and Lane are my stronger townreads, so it POEs it down a bit further from there as well.

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RC your enormous ego is a major hindrance to your scumhunting abilities. You are only voting me because you're offended that I don't like you directing a cop investigation.

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So do you still think RC is scum?

I don't recall ever saying I think RC is definitively scum. I don't particularly think RC is scummier than itlepip or Persivul, but he's not ringing strong town for me this game.

I liked your questions to Ranger in 40 and 45, I don't see a scum!lilith reason to ask those questions. And then 88 and 89 felt extremely town-transparent. The fact that a bunch of other people have been doubting your D1 play makes me think you're more likely to be town here as well.

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the fact that RC doesn't question Persivul for saying basically the exact same thing that I said is a bit confusing

also I feel town!RC should have recognized that itlepip's vote here is abjectly terrible

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I think part of my problem is that this is a Blitz game which means there's not really enough time for involved Day play, and I read people better when they're interacting with eachother, that usually gives me a hook to jump in.

I don't really think your ISO is crap, it looks genuine, which is the main thing I look for.

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What other motivation do you have to try to encourage a potential clear to not be cleared?

Personally I'd rather have a cop - and you're making a really big deal about something we might not even have in the game - find scum than clear one person, and especially one person who's more concerned with personal survival than actually scum hunting.

My personal survival feeds back into my ability to continue to scumhunt anyway.

Just cop me protective on me easy win.

This post. I've already pointed out that we might not have a cop in this game, and that I feel investigating RC because he wants us to is at best a useless plan and at worst falling for a scum trap. But RC jumps on me for discrediting the idea of investigating him, but is fine with Persivul doing the same thing.

Also, my scumplay is a lot better than this but I've learned not to use that argument after Searching with Dragons mafia.

check out Newbie 1667 for some dope GL scum game

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Also itlepip, you should check out Kids with Guns mafia to see some garbage GL towngame. I opposed every wagon on scum, TvT tunneled for most of the game, and was generally a leading wagon and a distraction. TTH and Marquis carried me that game

Lane that's not L-1 AFAIK, do you mean to be voting me?

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also I mean there's just so many ways RC's plan could go wrong:

- no cop in this game
- RC is roleblocked and can't give fruit
- RC gives fruit to the player who dies
- RC gives fruit to scum who lies about not receiving it
- RC is NK'd
- cop is NK'd
- cop is redirected
- cop is insane due to Alien psychotrooper

like, it's just not worth obsessing over.

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I do want to point out that basically any wagon at this point is going to be fast, because we only have single digit hours to deadline.

like Lilith your reasoning against Xtoxm here would apply to him voting any wagon

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I still think itlepip is the best lynch today, he hasn't engaged with anyone in any substantive way until suddenly he decided my entire ISO is "literal garbage"

Xtoxm is an okay lurker lynch but it's just that, a PL lynch on a lurker. if he flips town it won't get us anything.

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this game needs a SRMP and Ranger catchup IMO

if one (or both) of them is town then it's very likely scum is involved in choosing the current lynch

@RC I'll deadline vote either of them but I'd rather those wagons build without me on them.

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nah I won't vote you at this point, especially since I've come around to what you were saying about cop not being very useful

the problem is I feel like the most likely to be scum of those three is probably Xtoxm but him being town is also the worst case scenario

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let's all take a deep breath and remember that itlepip

stated that I was voting RadiantCowbells and was not able to provide a decent explanation for why he thought this

how often do you guys get votes wrong as town? Ever thought someone was voting someone when they never actually did? Or is that more likely to come from overzealous scum bullshitting reasons to throw shade at someone?

like if you're honestly attempting to sort me I don't see how you look at my posts and think I was ever voting RC

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I really do want Ranger or SRMP to get in here and post some updated thoughts before I enable a flashwagon on someone different

p-edit: yeah but lilith you never assumed that a different player was voting RC

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If you do not enable another wagon you are tacitly supporting my lynch.

look, it's way more useful for all of us to read SRMP and Ranger if they're forced to come in here and choose amongst deadline wagons

I'll be here at deadline to move my vote if needed, but you're equally as capable of moving to itlepip as I am of moving to Persivul

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I know I'm town, therefore the more votes on a wagon without mine, the more likely it is for scum to have had to jump on it. Thats the advantage of waiting here for more players

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My thinking is scum!RC has no motive to claim fruit vendor unless he can supply fruit.

If he can't, he's sunk D2. If he can, that mostly clears him.

So I doubt he's scum pulling a bunch of weird shit unless his partner is a mafia fruit vendor and he's the godfather, or if he's a scum PGO. Either way, he's not really worth lynching today

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As someone previously noted, in this setup there are many explanations if no one reports getting fruit tomorrow.

Right, but what does scum!RC gain from having to explain all of those away? Why even introduce the idea of him being a fruit vendor in the first place?

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There are so many reasons for this to fail, making it a statistically viable gambit - and that's even if this fruit vendor claim is entirely bullshit, which is my suspicion.

I guess, but I feel it's at least worth it to wait and see if someone does get fruit tomorrow. However, I also think it's not worth it for a cop to check him.

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Like, why did I do this as scum.

also @lilith, because this relates to her question as well: my thought here was you could make a huge play by having any doc/cop roles target you, like if you get mafia cupid on you so that when you're lynched the town PRs die instantly, or just taking them out with a PGO, or in the rare case of godfather+fruit vendor team, "confirming" yourself as town.

However that's a lot of assumptions to make for a D1 lynch so I'd rather just see how the night actions play out and sort it from there.

Persivul, you're right, but there's no real reason to think that it's

more likely

from scum!RC than from town!RC.

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okay at this point I'm happy to start wagon building. I can go itlepip, Pers, Xtoxm, SRMP - prefer in that order

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Lion - why is srmp so low? scum are more likely to duck the deadline crunch than town.

We don't know he was ducking, and flipping him without him catching up and giving reads would tell us nothing if he flips town.

Also I caught SRMP as scum in How to be Normal, so I feel like he's not a huge threat if he rolled scum again

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Lane what do you think of 192? Given that presumably, itlepip shouldn't know your alignment right now.

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itlepip you respect my towngame too much apparently, I'm still town here

I think Lane and Pers look worse here than SRMP

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actually idk everyone on this wagon looks pretty scummy

hopefully town has some juiced up night action going on tonight

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part of me wants to think itle is twilight trolling

including pers in his list twice is still pretty weird

lane I don't like how you said SRMP's vote was crap and the slip was a dumb slip but then voted him for the hammer anyway. But we were close to deadline so it's prob not that important

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Pers - in 507 and 516 you were suggesting we lynch itlepip, but then in 537 you tried to redirect the lynch back to me. Why?

Also, why do you think Lane kill points to SRMP when it could just as easily point to RC or myself? Like Lane's last post is literally calling me out so I'm surprised you are using his death to implicate SRMP. Feels like a bit too easy of a push.

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Yeah compared to How to Be Normal SRMP looks more town here

I probably want to lynch Xtoxm over Pers today unless Xtoxm starts getting a lot more involved. It's impossible for me to read either him or Ranger with how little I've seen from either of them. I haven't liked a lot of what Pers has posted but a coasting lurker is more dangerous to town here, I think.

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Can you seriously not figure out why from the post itself and the context? I'm willing to explain it if I really need to, but sometimes I get the feeling you're asking questions with obvious answers just to appear busy.

and yes, I do want you to explain this.

I don't like how you're spinning me trying to get a better read on you as something scummy.

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How is it impossible to read me? I feel i've done a fair amount to show my alignment, particularly at deadline yesterday.

with my post I really just wanted to bait you into engaging more and it seemed to have worked, as this kind of long drawn out thought process is more what I'm used to seeing from you.

I don't think a lot of yesterday is particularly indicative, especially without a scumflip. Deadline is a lot harder to use to read people in my mind, because there's not time to sit around and reflect a lot on what people are saying. Sometimes scum will slip up but I didn't exactly see that from anyone, and then the way itlepip messed up his readslist gave a very easy excuse for everyone to pile on him yesterday, both town and scum.

What had Itle done that was sheepworthy? I'd found Itle's post up to that point very underwhelming.
Where did you think it was going to lead? The way I think about it, someone who has full claimed miller is the least useful place to wagon at the start of D1.

Itle hadn't done anything sheepworthy. I really had no strong scumreads one way or the other and I wanted to see how people reacted to my vote. I guess in terms of where it could lead, I wanted to see who questioned me about my vote, how itle reacted to his wagon growing, if Ranger would respond, etc.

I wanted to try to build a wagon

somewhere

and so I tried to make something happen with a null read voting another null read. But I planned to jump off if something more indicative came up, and then I thought Ranger made some townish looking posts that prompted me to hop to Persivul.

Also - What is your current read on RC, and what would you say the chances are of you voting him today?

egh, I tend to always townread RC because he's great at sounding town by tone. But he has absolutely tricked me as scum before.

Given that he has provided fruit, I'm less inclined to feel like voting him today, because I think it is entirely possible that he's arrogant enough to want to clear himself immediately as a town fruit vendor, which would explain a lot of his D1 play. I'm trying to wrap my head around the math of knowing he's a fruit vendor and whether that information makes him more likely to be scum (town vs mafia fruit vendor being 50-50) or significantly less likely to be scum (ruled out as being every other possible scum role).

I'm feeling kind of lost at the moment as I don't have any particularly strong scumreads, and when I'm usually in this situation I tend to default to a lazy scumread which inevitably winds up being inaccurate. I think it would help me to see you and RC talk directly to eachother, instead of about eachother, but obviously I can't force that to happen.

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I do agree with your points about 609 though - RC isn't dumb, and I suspect he knows you aren't dumb either

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Let me sleep on RC, Xtoxm - rereading his D2 posts, I'm starting to get a nagging sense that you may be right here.

I don't like RC's 595 "not sure why you wagoned itle" - seems like a useless thing to say and only angling for towncred.

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Yeah I think I'm coming around to scum!Persivul as I read these pages

There's a bunch of little things that bother me

Sheeping Ranger, who looks town now. And just because this game is boring.

I don't like how he had to clarify this vote with "because the game is boring". It pings me as preemptively defensive, like he knows his vote is bad as he is making it.

Ranger's reads are generally better than mine, and her last posts feel similar to recent town games.

I don't like this either, basically for reasons RC stated. If someone strongly scumreads a slot that I'm townreading, even if I respect their towngame immensely, I am more likely to think their scumread is questionable or faked than I am to think my townread is completely wrong.

And then the multiball "slip" argument is terrible, especially given that we just mislynched itlepip for a far worse "slip" in this game and he explicitly pointed out that slips don't really work in catching scum.

Also I don't understand why the argument about RC's play being detrimental to town is at all relevant here. Persivul isn't arguing that RC is scum because of it, he's arguing that RC's towngame is bad. Why is that indicative of his alignment in this particular game?

RC the reason I can't come to a decision on your slot is because you've faked me out extremely well as scum before. I feel like no matter how strongly I townread you, I will always be paranoid.

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This sounds kinda fake. What in RC's play are you strong townreading, btw.

I've yet to see RC be scum but i've seen him as town a bunch of times, and he feels different here. I've never seen him so survivalistic, and so intent to discredit those who have pressured him. I feel like he's merely campaigning for a lynch, rather than actually trying to lynch scum.

I'm not strongly townreading him in this game, I'm just making the point in general. He expects me to be decisive about his slot and I don't think I can given that I've been decisively wrong before.

Can you explain that last sentence in more detail? When I played with RC as scum, he deathtunneled BBT super intensely and made a very thorough and involved case. I feel like scum!RC is sensitive to the fact that town needs to believe his passion for a lynch, and I'm not seeing as much of that here.

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Yeah I think I'm coming around to scum!Persivul as I read these pages

Don't come around all day, then come on to make one post against me after Ranger does. And nothing else. Interesting.

I kind of have a life sometimes. What other things were you expecting me to do?

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SRMP, do you think Persivul is scum?

And there's plenty of time to choose a different lynch, I'll be here today

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I don't, you are right.

SRMP answer my question please!

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what in his ISO convinced you?

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Xtoxm, lilith, what are your thoughts on this wagon and SRMP's 732?

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And even then I'm not sure that it's a town claim.

what do you mean by town claim? If he's a vengeful townie then that's his role. I'm not sure what scum gains out of fake claiming supersaint unless he thinks it will redirect the lynch today.

I'd prefer if Xtoxm or RC hammer but if it's completely impossible for us to do anything else today then I'll do it. But if he is actually town supersaint then that will basically mean a town loss unless we can stop the NK

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actually I think I want lilith to hammer over Xtoxm.

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Sorry I'm here

Lilith it's because I think you're more likely to be scum if Persivul is town rather than Xtoxm

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Because Persivul being town means the axis I'm looking at the game from is fundamentally flawed, it opens the door to RC!scum and means you're a likely partner. I don't think xtoxm and RC have telling associatives so it would make Xtoxm more town by comparison

This is also assuming my town reads on SRMP and Ranger are correct, but neither of them are hammering today so

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lilith you realize that's pure WIFOM right

srmp because I've seen you as scum

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I'm town so SRMP is the other scum

SRMP what's your role
if you're a solo 3rd party I'll give you the win

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FBI Agent. Neither Xtoxm or Ranger were serial killers.

I actually forgot Ranger claimed Miller until I saw her flip today, I probably would have investigated SRMP if I had remembered that. I was trying to go after the people who seemed to be coasting.

Xtoxm I thought you scumclaimed earlier?

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oh right and the Alien Psychotrooper means she thought he was town

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how do you figure, because I'm town

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lol whoops

well I was fakeclaiming but I'm still town

I want to hear SRMP's role

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Dude I'm seriously not scum

I'm also not an FBI agent

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whatever I claim psychiatrist, not FBI agent

I was trying to bait SRMP into revealing if he's SK or not but I guess I'll be visiting him tonight regardless because RC cannot possibly be SK, so it won't matter.

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wait holy shit guys I'm really town, I pinky promise 100% swear to god

can we just lynch Xtoxm because I'm not sure how there were two NKs and he might have some kind of trick or something

either that or RC is mafia fruit vendor after all

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yeah so Xtoxm = alien
RC = mafia

so lynching RC here is a town win because alien used their factional kill
no lynching means Xtoxm the alien is dead tomorrow and we lynch RC for town win if SRMP can be convinced that I am really truly town here

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Xtoxm, before we go to night, can you confirm in thread that you will be role blocking me tonight?

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SRMP -

whatever I claim psychiatrist, not FBI agent

I was trying to bait SRMP into revealing if he's SK or not but I guess I'll be visiting him tonight regardless because RC cannot possibly be SK, so it won't matter.

at the time I figured you were likely the other scum (not RC), and that if you were SK I wanted to bait you into revealing it so that I could be sure that converting you would be correct play tonight.

then RC called me on my fakeclaim and I also realized it was a dumb gambit because RC is confirmed not-SK by the fruit vendor thing, so I would visit you regardless. I didn't lie about my targets, I visited Xtoxm n1 and Ranger n2. Just trying to go after coasters I thought might be a 3rd party SK.

as long as Xtoxm roleblocks me tonight, either RC kills Xtoxm and confirms himself as mafia, or there is no NK and we're in a forced draw.

Town can only win here (instead of draw) with an RC lynch, but I doubt Xtoxm would do that since it would guarantee that he would lose.

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I am psychiatrist, FBI agent was a fakeclaim to try to get an SK to out

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like of all people, RC should recognize that fakeclaiming does not mean scum

he is going to NK Xtoxm and then try to make an argument that I somehow strong-manned the kill. Do not buy it

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actually wait he might just NK you SRMP, and then put me in a kingmaker situation

the only way this is actually a guaranteed draw is if Xtoxm RBs RC instead, but I doubt he trusts me enough to do that. But I should be confirmed town tomorrow if Xtoxm goes through with RBing me as promised

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if you get probed and NKed then town will win when we lynch Xtoxm, because your mafia flip will confirm me as town and Xtoxm as the other scum

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Ah good point, so he can't be killed tonight no matter what

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VOTE: no lynch

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I agree to tie, or vote no lynch or whatever.

RC I agree you played extremely well this game but lynching either of you is sort of against my win con so I can't do it

Xtoxm I'm never scum

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If I absolutely have to pick I'll pick RC cause he's right the deck was more stacked against him. If SRMP weren't innocent child he probably would have won

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That's a good point, NK selection is pretty big. I don't want to foster a kingmaker who-played-better thing, you guys both fooled me, I don't think I ever voted either of you.

agree to tie if that's a thing