Blitz 24: Great Idea Mafia

[RadiantCowbells]

The problem is that he does anti-town stuff as town all the time, so it doesn't matter what he does, a couple people say

oh he does that as town too

and there's not enough to lynch. Fake claiming and role fishing would be plenty to get most people lynched, but RC has crafted a teflon meta over the years.

Persivul, this implies that I play scummy as town to aid my scum meta.
I actively dislike playing scum and besides 184 none of my favourite games are scum games.
Also you're implying that I try to make my town game look like lynchbait; nothing could be farther from the truth; I don't get mislynched often for a reason.
I play yolo because yolo play garners better reactions and upsets the balance. nothing less, nothing more. it's optimal.

[Persivul]

My thinking is scum!RC has no motive to claim fruit vendor unless he can supply fruit.

If he can't, he's sunk D2. If he can, that mostly clears him.

As someone previously noted, in this setup there are many explanations if no one reports getting fruit tomorrow.

[Persivul]

Persivul, this implies that I play scummy as town to aid my scum meta.
I actively dislike playing scum and besides 184 none of my favourite games are scum games.
Also you're implying that I try to make my town game look like lynchbait; nothing could be farther from the truth; I don't get mislynched often for a reason.
I play yolo because yolo play garners better reactions and upsets the balance. nothing less, nothing more. it's optimal.

Well, as you noted I'm at best mediocre as town. I did a hydra with farside to try to learn but she ended up being pretty busy as it was over the holidays. I need to try that again.

[lilith2013]

Okay but.. Do you still think he's scum or not?

[Xtoxm]

My thinking is scum!RC has no motive to claim fruit vendor unless he can supply fruit.

If he can't, he's sunk D2. If he can, that mostly clears him.

So I doubt he's scum pulling a bunch of weird shit unless his partner is a mafia fruit vendor and he's the godfather, or if he's a scum PGO. Either way, he's not really worth lynching today

There are so many reasons for this to fail, making it a statistically viable gambit - and that's even if this fruit vendor claim is entirely bullshit, which is my suspicion.

[Persivul]

@ lilith: I have no idea. That's why he's in my null group.

[GuiltyLion]

As someone previously noted, in this setup there are many explanations if no one reports getting fruit tomorrow.

Right, but what does scum!RC gain from having to explain all of those away? Why even introduce the idea of him being a fruit vendor in the first place?

[GuiltyLion]

There are so many reasons for this to fail, making it a statistically viable gambit - and that's even if this fruit vendor claim is entirely bullshit, which is my suspicion.

I guess, but I feel it's at least worth it to wait and see if someone does get fruit tomorrow. However, I also think it's not worth it for a cop to check him.

[RadiantCowbells]

That's the entire point of what I'm trying to say.
What does scum!RC gain from any of this?
Being cleared paints a target on my back, being cop investigated gets me lynched if I'm fruit vendor, not being able to fruit vendor gets me lynched if Lane's alive, I just ruined myself on day 1.
Like, why did I do this as scum. Lane likes to say lolgambit, but this is a gambit that has no chance of winning.

[Xtoxm]

Very well, I can go with that.

VOTE: SRMP

[Persivul]

@ GL: As others have said, there's a statistically small chance that there's a cop. A mafia fruit vendor could make a gambit on the probability that there's no cop. He then sends fruit, doesn't get outed by a cop report, and it gives him towncred.

[lilith2013]

Why not? It's as good as checking anyone else, isn't it? (Plus, if the fruit does go through, we can confirm as town as opposed to someone else who could be non-mafia scum).

[lilith2013]

That was @GL.

[lilith2013]

@ GL: As others have said, there's a statistically small chance that there's a cop. A mafia fruit vendor could make a gambit on the probability that there's no cop. He then sends fruit, doesn't get outed by a cop report, and it gives him towncred.

But then he's crosskilled if the other faction can't lynch him.

[RadiantCowbells]

@ GL: As others have said, there's a statistically small chance that there's a cop. A mafia fruit vendor could make a gambit on the probability that there's no cop. He then sends fruit, doesn't get outed by a cop report, and it gives him towncred.

I had an 100% scum winrate last year and its not because I play games with autoloss. And even if that worked, I'd just get cross killed.

There's no benefit here.

[Persivul]

That's the entire point of what I'm trying to say.
What does scum!RC gain from any of this?

Being cleared paints a target on my back,

being cop investigated gets me lynched if I'm fruit vendor, not being able to fruit vendor gets me lynched if Lane's alive, I just ruined myself on day 1.
Like, why did I do this as scum. Lane likes to say lolgambit, but this is a gambit that has no chance of winning.

Then what was the town motivation for being cleared? The cop wastes an investigation on a townie, who then gets killed N2 anyway.

[GuiltyLion]

Like, why did I do this as scum.

also @lilith, because this relates to her question as well: my thought here was you could make a huge play by having any doc/cop roles target you, like if you get mafia cupid on you so that when you're lynched the town PRs die instantly, or just taking them out with a PGO, or in the rare case of godfather+fruit vendor team, "confirming" yourself as town.

However that's a lot of assumptions to make for a D1 lynch so I'd rather just see how the night actions play out and sort it from there.

Persivul, you're right, but there's no real reason to think that it's

more likely

from scum!RC than from town!RC.

[RadiantCowbells]

That's the entire point of what I'm trying to say.
What does scum!RC gain from any of this?

Being cleared paints a target on my back,

being cop investigated gets me lynched if I'm fruit vendor, not being able to fruit vendor gets me lynched if Lane's alive, I just ruined myself on day 1.
Like, why did I do this as scum. Lane likes to say lolgambit, but this is a gambit that has no chance of winning.

Then what was the town motivation for being cleared? The cop wastes an investigation on a townie, who then gets killed N2 anyway.

Because I am no longer a viable mislynch and it gives me free rein to lead a lynch the next day.

[RadiantCowbells]

I mean I'm not usually a viable mislynch anyway.

But, apparently, in this game it matters.

[Lucky2u]

Wow I see I've got some catching up to do. Vote Count ASAP.

[RadiantCowbells]

Buckle up crowley!

[lane0168]

The reason you would do it as scum is so you can say "why would I do that as scum?!" that's why it's a gambit.

Thats 1 reason to do it as scum. Now give me one reason to claim and out the cop as town?

[RadiantCowbells]

So that I don't get deadline lynched?

I'd think that would be obvious, no?

[Persivul]

I had an 100% scum winrate last year

What were your town stats?

[Persivul]

So that I don't get deadline lynched?

I'd think that would be obvious, no?

You weren't in danger of being lynched when you said a cop should claim.