Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Oman]

What a terribly rude question Dybeck.

Anyway, from the last two pages, Dybeck is actually writing stuff, and starting to look town.

However, I believe this is not because he IS town, but because the town is beginning to share his views (Evident in the Dybeck: Town: sketch). Thus I believe Dybeck to be as scummy as ever, and the town is merely parrallel.

[vollkan]

Anyway, from the last two pages, Dybeck is actually writing stuff, and starting to look town.

However, I believe this is not because he IS town, but because the town is beginning to share his views (Evident in the Dybeck: Town: sketch). Thus I believe Dybeck to be as scummy as ever, and the town is merely parrallel.

Dybeck's actions are also entirely consistent with him being a mafia hunting SK-Orig.

I don't think anyone has accepted Dybeck's arguments. They improved, definitely, but I still think he is wrong.

[shaft.ed]

Wow. How broken. No wonder DragonsofSummer hasn't modded a game before or since.

Mod: is this your first game as mod?

It's pretty unbalanced either way. If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch. So I wouldn't call it broken, just very difficult to balance given the limits of Normal Minis. That's also why you see vigs more often the SKs. And I also find your question rude. Streeflo has been doing a very nice job modding, and I'm sure he worked to get his game balance before he started it up.

Dybeck, two questions, if Orig is the SK then who would you peg as the mafia?
If Orig is mafia, who would you peg as the SK and other mafia?

Yes I too would like to hear something from dybeck other than originality must die. There are at least 3 scum in this game and we have yet to find any.

[vollkan]

It's pretty unbalanced either way. If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch. So I wouldn't call it broken, just very difficult to balance given the limits of Normal Minis. That's also why you see vigs more often the SKs. And I also find your question rude. Streeflo has been doing a very nice job modding, and I'm sure he worked to get his game balance before he started it up.

Let me second that. I think Streeflo is doing an excellent job as mod ^^.

Also, Oman, do you think we should lynch Orig?

[Oman]

Also, Oman, do you think we should lynch Orig?

I'm unsure, I can see the argument for him being vig, but, Jesus, Carrotcake? Not my top 5.

I guess the idea is what is more dangerous, a NK or a large voting block?

The optimum answer to me is this:
Do not lynch orig, but put a no-kill bar on him. That way, we lose the danger of the SK, and retain the benefits of finding scum and taking down their collective vote power.

BTW in my previous post, the town hasn't accept dybeck's views, they are just coming up with their own similar ones (hence "sharing").

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #17!

dybeck (1) - vollkan
originality (1) - dybeck
Lucienne (1) - originality

Not voting: Everyone else

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

[vollkan]

I'm unsure,

I can see the argument for him being vig, but, Jesus, Carrotcake? Not my top 5.

As I expected you would be.

The optimum answer to me is this:
Do not lynch orig, but put a no-kill bar on him. That way, we lose the danger of the SK, and retain the benefits of finding scum and taking down their collective vote power.

Yes, and then the mafia lose the danger of losing a member and can set up for an autolynch tomorrow.

[Oman]

If you want to look at it all, I actually change my stance halfway down after thinking about it and say do not lynch orig.

[vollkan]

If you want to look at it all, I actually change my stance halfway down after thinking about it and say do not lynch orig.

Yes, conditional upon him presenting absolutely no threat to the mafia.

Would you support Orig's lynch if the alternative was him being permitted to NK?

[Oman]

Only if it was on a scummy target, or else one chosen by a secondary vote (I understand an SK would be fine with it, but it at least gives the town majority some control).

I'd usually be agaisnt directing the vig/SK, but carrotcake?

Yes, conditional upon him presenting absolutely no threat to the mafia.

Or town.

[Oman]

EBWOP: If I was scum (and I know how WIFOM this would get) I probably wouldn't worry so much about orig because his track record isn't great, and he could almost be a lynch target tomorrow conditional on a bad NK.

[Gemelli]

I think the decision should only be made during twilight

To the best of my knowledge, there is typically a very small window for discussion during twilight, correct? I'd feel better about the setup if we had more time to discuss, even if the final decision isn't made until twilight.

Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia.

This assumes, of course, that Orig is NOT mafia. I am still not convinced that that's a safe bet, although the fact that he's willing to let us direct his action tonight means that we should know one way or the other tomorrow morning.

Gemelli (As you say, though, slightly scummy. I think about 55% scummy)

Totally understandable, as I've said. I'm holding out some hope that this feeling is based primarily on my predecessor's play. I've tried my best to be an active scumhunter for the team. If something *I've* posted rings false/scummy, I'd appreciate hearing about what, specifically, it is.

Now then: I am still not swayed by the arguments against Dybeck. He has been single-minded in his pursuit of a single player, but I don't think it's without cause, and I'd like to think most of you would agree that there HAVE been some good reasons for his suspicions. Yes, one scenario is that he could be Mafia targetting a possible SK. But I'm a little surprised that in one page of this thread, people's reactions have shifted from "you actually are making some good points here" to "you are just as scummy as ever." I guess I haven't seen anything from him that I feel really deserves the level of suspicion being levelled.

That being said -- convince me! I realize that I'm new, and may be missing something that is blindingly obvious to the veterans. But my #1 choice for a lynch tonight would be:

vote: Oman

The vote-hopping on Day 2 is what bothers me the most about his play, but even on Day 1 his posts struck me as opportunistic and often needlessly confrontational. Specifically, posts 69, 129, 162, and 285 stood out to me as creating tempests within teapots. But post 239, where he tried to make the case that power roles claiming on day 1 is helpful to the town -- I'm just not seeing that as something a veteran player would say if he was trying to help the town.

All that being said, we need to think about the town's two targets for tonight -- a lynch, and an orig target. I think I've said all I can on why I suspect Oman, and if we're leaving Originality alive tonight (which I agree with), my #2 choice would be for Lucienne or Elias, leaving open the possibility that you all convince me that a dybeck bandwagon is reasonable.

And if I end up in one of those two slots, so be it. The good doctor did not leave me a lot to work with here

[vollkan]

Only if it was on a scummy target, or else one chosen by a secondary vote (I understand an SK would be fine with it, but it at least gives the town majority some control).

I'd usually be agaisnt directing the vig/SK, but carrotcake?

Look, if I was the vig I would have targeted AlyG or nobody most likely. That said, Orig has explained why he targeted Carrot and shaft.ed has decisively proven that Saint Carrot the Scumhunter is a myth.

Directing him defeats the purpose. If we direct him to take out a townie by accident, the mafia won't NK him. Orig needs to be an uncertain threat to the mafia so that he is NKed. I don't want Orig to NK, but I am leaving the matter entirely up to his cautious judgment.

Yes, conditional upon him presenting absolutely no threat to the mafia.

Or town.

I don't think he is a SK. Hence, I don't think he will pose a threat to us tonight. He should have learnt his lesson by now.

EBWOP: If I was scum (and I know how WIFOM this would get) I probably wouldn't worry so much about orig because his track record isn't great, and he could almost be a lynch target tomorrow conditional on a bad NK.

Not true. shaft.ed and myself have already been quite explicit about who we think is scum and town. I can't speak for shaft.ed, but one reason I have been feeding so much information out is to try and "buff" up Orig a bit. If he is better informed, he is more likely to hit mafia.

[vollkan]

Crossed with Gemelli.

To the best of my knowledge, there is typically a very small window for discussion during twilight, correct? I'd feel better about the setup if we had more time to discuss, even if the final decision isn't made until twilight.

No decision should be made in my opinion. We can (and I have) directed Orig to our most desired candidates but we should not give him an absolute instruction.

Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia.

This assumes, of course, that Orig is NOT mafia. I am still not convinced that that's a safe bet, although the fact that he's willing to let us direct his action tonight means that we should know one way or the other tomorrow morning.

I refuse to support directing Orig. If he is mafia, there is a hidden SK who can only hope to succeed here by defeating the mafia.

Totally understandable, as I've said. I'm holding out some hope that this feeling is based primarily on my predecessor's play. I've tried my best to be an active scumhunter for the team. If something *I've* posted rings false/scummy, I'd appreciate hearing about what, specifically, it is.

Mostly your predecessor. And some of this stuff regarding Orig.

I am still not swayed by the arguments against Dybeck

What specifically? Here we have a player who is unswervingly pushing for the lynch of a confirmed vig or SK. If he is mafia, he has motivations for both. His reasoning is deeply flawed and, as such, it looks like he is grasping to get rid of Orig.

[Gemelli]

Here we have a player who is unswervingly pushing for the lynch of a confirmed vig or SK.

OK, here's where I expose the depths of my n00bidity:

If orig was a mafia (not vig or SK), and delivered the kill confirmation to the mod, I have been assuming that this would trigger the tracker result reported by AlyG.

If that is NOT true, then I will have to adjust my thinking, as I have been assuming that orig being a vig or SK isn't a given. If my assumption is correct, I think that the "deeply flawed" characterization is reaching. It's hard to fault someone for pushing a bandwagon against someone who confirmed killing a pro-town role. That being said, I am not willing to throw out the "mafia targetting SK" possibility. I just want to weigh it against all of the other possibilities.

As far as not/directing orig tonight: I think that NOT directing him will provide limited value to the town tomorrow. But I agree that leaving him as a wild card gives the Mafia a more difficult choice to make tonight. I suppose that as long as there is some posted consensus in place as to good targets for him, that's really the best we can hope for.

That being said, my #1 and #2 choices would be Oman and Elias (who continues to post in his other games with alarming regularity while leaving us high and dry). Subject to change as we get closer to a lynch vote, obviously.

[vollkan]

If orig was a mafia (not vig or SK), and delivered the kill confirmation to the mod, I have been assuming that this would trigger the tracker result reported by AlyG.

I may have given you the wrong impression. When there is a tracker or the likes, typically mafia are asked to "specify who will make the kill". It is not by who submits the choice.

I was referring to this:

originality wrote:

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

Good point, combining this with the no-cop claim, I'd find it much more likely that you are SK or vig and not mafia.

[vollkan]

As far as not/directing orig tonight: I think that NOT directing him will provide limited value to the town tomorrow. But I agree that leaving him as a wild card gives the Mafia a more difficult choice to make tonight. I suppose that as long as there is some posted consensus in place as to good targets for him, that's really the best we can hope for.

The exact way I would like this to be done is for each player to post a miniature scumdar thing, like what I did with the %s.

I want it to be as informative as possible without being clear instructions. Orig will have to work out whose suspicions to privilege based on the suspicions of other people, etc. and it will be difficult for him, but that is what he has to do IF he chooses to NK.

The wild card effect is too valuable to get rid of.

[Gemelli]

I was referring to this:

originality wrote:

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

Good point, combining this with the no-cop claim, I'd find it much more likely that you are SK or vig and not mafia.

I think that is a reasonable *argument*, yes. I'm just not ready to jump in and slap the "confirmed" label on it just yet. But knowing that the mafia are allowed to decide who makes the kill does make it seem less likely that originality is Mafia.

The exact way I would like this to be done is for each player to post a miniature scumdar thing, like what I did with the %s.

Since this is exactly what I did in my first substantial post in this game, I concur I'll have to come back to it tomorrow morning (tomorrow comes early), but I'll update my own scumdar ratings as soon as I can.

[vollkan]

I think that is a reasonable *argument*, yes. I'm just not ready to jump in and slap the "confirmed" label on it just yet. But knowing that the mafia are allowed to decide who makes the kill does make it seem less likely that originality is Mafia.

No, he is not confirmed unmafia. He may well have claimed vig in the hopes of either outing the vig or proving there is a SK to his buddies. That said, this is a risky gambit since it makes him a certain NK target, in contrast to claiming RB or something.

[Gemelli]

I take it back; I'll post my updates now:

Town
------
Vollkan -- 70% town odds
shaft.ed -- 65% town odds
AlyG (tracker claim) -- 60% town odds

(FWIW, I think it highly likely that Vollkan and shaft.ed are the same alignment.)

Unsure
--------
Lucienne -- 55% town odds
dybeck -- 50% either way
Elias_the_thief -- 55% scum odds

Scummy
----------
Orig (vig claim) -- 60% scum odds (stock is climbing towards town)
Oman -- 75% scum odds

[vollkan]

I take it back; I'll post my updates now:

Town
------
Vollkan -- 70% town odds
shaft.ed -- 65% town odds
AlyG (tracker claim) -- 60% town odds

(FWIW, I think it highly likely that Vollkan and shaft.ed are the same alignment.)

Unsure
--------
Lucienne -- 55% town odds

dybeck -- 50% either way

Elias_the_thief -- 55% scum odds

Scummy
----------
Orig (vig claim) -- 60% scum odds (stock is climbing towards town)
Oman -- 75% scum odds

Good. That is exactly what I was talking about.

Bolded:

FWIW, mafia commonly put their partners in a mid-range position. You can't get much more mid-range than 50%. This may become important down the track so I am just noting it here.

[dybeck]

Can I make one thing clear?

I think Streeflo is doing an excellent job. He's been a faultless mod all the way through, which is why I'm sure there are three mafia in this game. Only a wildly incompetent mod would put a broken setup together with only two mafia.

However, it is possible that a first time mod would get the balance wrong.

[vollkan]

I think Streeflo is doing an excellent job. He's been a faultless mod all the way through, which is why I'm sure there are three mafia in this game.

Only a wildly incompetent mod would put a broken setup together with only two mafia.

However, it is possible that a first time mod would get the balance wrong.

Not true. At all. I have seen it on other occasions as well. It is not a "broken" set up. In Mini 467 my partner made it to 2:1 LYLO and if he hadn't made a silly error we would almost certainly had won.

That's enough grumbling by me about 467, the point is that whilst 2 mafia is more difficult, it certainly is not "game-breaking". Implicit in what you said, Dybeck, is that IF Streeflo put in only 2 mafia THEN Streeflo is incompetent.

I entirely disagree with this and I have a real problem with you circumstantially calling Streeflo incompetent.

[dybeck]

Dybeck, two questions, if Orig is the SK then who would you peg as the mafia?
If Orig is mafia, who would you peg as the SK and other mafia?

Yes I too would like to hear something from dybeck other than originality must die. There are at least 3 scum in this game and we have yet to find any.

I'm assuming that since he is lining up to defend him with misrepresentation and lies in the mathematics, that shaft.ed is a possible other mafia. He's misrepresented me on several occasions, and posted mathematics that he knows to be wrong (#637) to make it look like I'm incorrect, or somehow not hunting scum. Vollkan might be the other, or he might just be following shaft.ed's lead to appear helpful.

If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE. It's worth noting that two people in this town would want that to happen. I'd urge the town not to get swept along on a tide.

There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

The problem is, that only these people I believe to be scum are posting, which means that as a block, they seem to be discrediting everything I say.

But I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die.

[dybeck]

I don't think Streeflo is incompetent at all.

Because I don't think there are only two mafia.