Mini 1758: Game Over

[SirCakez]

Tictac has something to say, waiting on that. Where did Elyse say she was busy?

Somewhere else. Not going into more detail then that since site rules.

[Elyse]

Yeah my bad. I had a crazy week. I still want to lynch Cakez.

[Performer]

VOTE COUNT 3.04

SirCakez (4): Elyse, Some Random Mafia Player, a plain farmer, Zulfy
tictac (1): curiouskarmadog
a plain farmer (1): SirCakez

No vote (3): UpTooLate, tictac, Lokiben

With 9 players alive, it takes 5/9 votes to lynch.

For deadlines & notes, please refer to this post – post 3 !

[SirCakez]

Someone hammer already. This game is dead and needs a kick in the pants that my town flip should provide.

[Lokiben]

No, we're waiting for tictac. Maybe wherever he has to day can simulate discussion. Otherwise, we can just hammer. Regardless we have a week or so to go, so we're in no hurry.

[tictac]

Someone hammer already. This game is dead and needs a kick in the pants that my town flip should provide.

Sorry this is taking so long. I'm 4/7th of the way there.
Should be able to finish tomorrow, but also promised to babysit. Sunday at the latest.

[a plain farmer]

It would take some stunning revelations for tictac's post to make me not want to go through with the SirCakez lynch.

@tictac
Since 1) you're unlikely to be the NK tonight and 2) the town seems set upon lynching SirCakez, you may want to consider keeping what you're writing in reserve for D4 if you feel it will help scum more than town on N3.

[SirCakez]

Plain Farmer has to go tomorrow period. No its ands or buts. That post is unbelievably scummy, telling Tictac to withold info. Unless CKD catches someone.

[a plain farmer]

I'm making sure he's aware that it may potentially be a problem. Only tictac knows what he's writing right now (I hope), and if it's, for example, something that clears townies or suggests who might have PRs, then it might be best for it to wait. Or maybe it wont do those things and will give us something good to think about over N3. It's his call.

[SirCakez]

He's not going to hard claim in the post, what are you even thinking he's doing?

[a plain farmer]

What makes you think I was even saying he might have something to hard claim?

And what I think he's doing is what he says he is doing: combing the thread for associatives. Such analysis is often used to figure out who has a PR (of both the town and scum variety).

[SirCakez]

it's, for example, something that clears townies or suggests who might have PRs,

Sounds like a hard claim to me.

[a plain farmer]

What I had in mind was something like the camn-SRMP associative from posts 312 and 316 that would clear tictac if SRMP were scum.

[tictac]

It would take some stunning revelations for tictac's post to make me not want to go through with the SirCakez lynch.

@tictac
Since 1) you're unlikely to be the NK tonight and 2) the town seems set upon lynching SirCakez, you may want to consider keeping what you're writing in reserve for D4 if you feel it will help scum more than town on N3.

I'd be very surprised if my thing affected the NK with outed PRs about.
Might be value in keeping some reads in reserve, to make it harder to target mislynches thou.
Also,I still have you and CKD to do and my eyes are starting to go blind.
I'm posting the bits that I think are currently relevant.

Spoiler: Camn

19 awkward Rando vote.
129[/post] scumread Rando, vote me.
178 vote UTL for lurking
243 says UTL was just pressure, unreasoned vote on me. Gives reasons to vote Rando instead.
251 Scumreads Rando again, doesn't vote.
312 tictac associatives post. Rando&Cakes scumreads here are bus-like since it's all predicated on scum!tictac.
346 continues treating me as confscum, but votes Cakez. Cakez she actually pushes, but is also quick to change target when an opportunity presents itself(Ika & CKD).
490 vote Ika "post or perish"
548 vote Cakez (sheep Elyse)
727 vote CKD, push him

hard

, doesn't pay too much attention on being coherent.

258,718,820,985 "ITT Cowbells keeps repeating " camn might be scum", and all other players are forgotten."
Never votes RC.

So, clear buslike behaviour on Rando, me, UTL, Cakez, RC. That is way too much busses.

Spoiler: I think this is why

19 camn:"It probably was too soon to play with you guys."
145 camn:"tictac will be on you like white on rice if you nightkill me like you wanna."
577 camn:"Same townstrategy as always, RC....find the scumz...Lynch them if you can... But be sure to buddy one until he has bussed all his partners....then burn him down and ruin his plans."
803 RC:"I left Camn alive to see how she'd react to things but it clearly didn't work last game."
(Note camn describing RCs strategy before he did. Camn knew what he was doing.)

camn knew RC could read her, and that I would be less susceptible to her buddying from the start and would also likely recognize her scumgame.
Couldn't kill either of us because the other would be on her "like white on rice".
I think she expected getting lynched from her first post.

That explains the huge amount of bus-like behaviour from her. There's a decent chance she was trying to create false associatives.
The less bus-like pushes are slightly more likely to actually be busses, but could well be her actually wanting people lynched too.
I think camn generally pretty unlikely to bus.
Her associatives can still be read, but shouldn't be based solely on how

camn

acted.

Spoiler: Cakez

4: rvs RC
is silent during the 'lets QL camn' thing. Scared?
59 join me on Rando
79 answer zulf asking why.
112 push Rando vote
118 question zulf about camn vote (a scum would be less likely to do this since it's a no-weight RVS vote and would be reluctant to be seen as defending partner)
119 zulf:"why single me out?"
120 answer (thoughtsync here)
140 question RCs scumread on camn. "I don't see this at all". (It's a meta-read so he wouldn't)
164 "The no-avatar thing isn't my issue with SRMP." (This was unprompted and could be wanting to distance himself from camns avatar-push on Rando.)
"I have no idea what RC is doing."(Also an unprompted stance on RCs camn scumread)
166 acnowledge RCs mysteriousness
186 "Can someone explain the case on camn to me? I'm not seeing it."(me & Elyse did give reasons with the votes, so not seeing the point of this question)
188 emoticon in response to naked vote from Elyse.
194 sheep RC to me. (This is interesting, because RCs vote on me was no more reasoned than his vote on camn. Cakez did later say he had his own reasons, but still. Also 3rd on the wagon)
206 defend against CKD
218 defend against UTL
221 defend against UTL
222 UTL:"And your reason was sheeping because your other wagon was dead. Tell me, what are your thoughts on tictac?"
223 finally gives reason for being in my wagon. Feels pressured to do so. Not sure those reasons existed before this point.
243 camn joins him on me without givin reasons(Usually a point against him being her partner. Might not be if camn fakes standard associatives)
250 hard defend camn. defend his questions from Elyse. Questions for camns wagon become questions for RC.
258 defend against Rando. Give reason for getting off rando as "you are improving"
259 Rando points out different reason given earlier.
260 Says it's both (Not liking the shifting reasons here)
261 Elyse:"then why not ask RC specifically"
262 now it's an open question to camn wagon again.
295 question RC seeing him as a buddy with camn.
question Elyses vote on him
non-defend against me. (Scum would be more likely to regret not giving reasons with his vote)
(note that camn & cakes widely scumread at this point, but I'm not reading the panic here I'd expect to see if they were both scum)
314 defend against camn saying he would be likely tictac-partner.
319 answer CKD("it was an open question for the people wagoning camn but RC was leading the wagon."), scumread Ika.
326 answer acryon
328 defend Ika scumread
343 question farmer. possible attempt to direct attention to CKD (cakez+camn are 2/4 of farmers list there)
346 camn votes Cakez. Giver reasons when she didn't give any for the vote on me.
347 defend against camn
352 defend against camn
353 scumread Elyse for poor reasoning(despite not scumreading camn for hers)
354 question Elyse.
356 push me. Urge UTL and Ika to lurk less. scumread CKD.
359 push me
360 promise readslist
361 defend from farmer
362 question Rando
364 question Zulf, push me
365 reads. Camn as null.
367 non-defend from Elyse
369 Elyse vs Loki TvT. calling Loki logical may be buddying.
372 threaten RC with potential scumread
374 scumread RC
378 scumread Elyse
379 defend against RC
382 "I expect you to kill a tunnel on someone who's trying to defend himself" (He called it. Maybe that is why I'm not seeing nervousness)
384 question Elyse(theorize Elyse townread on me. More likely from scum since would know we are both town)
385 question Elyse
387 question Elyse
388 question/scumread Zulf(zulftown if Cakezscum?)
389 camn: puch Cakez
391 defend against camn
392 NULL
393 push/question camn
395 "confbiasing or scum" (softening a scumread)
397 camn could be confbiasing scum doesn't make sense. Smells like justifying a null-read on camn.
398 disengaging from camn
400 give reasoning to not talk to Loki
401 camn: pushes Cake
402 defend against camn
403 wikilink to confbias(may indicate genuinely thinking camn is tunneling?)
405 says he wants people to look at the wagon.
407 says camn isn't bussing
410 camn: push Cakez
411 accse camn of confbias
camn:pushpush
419 defend
422 cakez does an ISO on me to push me.
423 push me
425 ask for input
431 defend/scumread me
432 push me
433 push Ika
436 defend against me
438 push me
440 joke
441 question about Elyse-meta
467 Ika vote
473 defend/question against me
474 push CKD
477 push Ika
488 defend against Ika
496 defend against camn
499 scumread Rando
501 push Ika
503,504 camn:push Cakez
540 scumread farmer from the hammer

day2
541 question CKD
542 scumread Elyse
547 vote me
548 camn:vote Cake
549 null
551 NK analysis scumread RC
553 camn:push cake.
554 defend against camn
556 "There's no night results here Loki."(not scum with Loki?)
558 camn: tries to urge me to go after Cakez (I think this is strongish toint in favour of town!Cakez)
559 defend against camn
562 null
563 scumread Ika wagon
566 defend
567 defend
568 "where is Zulf"
578 scumread Elyse
579 defend
581 push Elyse
585 nullread RC
586 reads. camn as town, Elyse as scumlean. Interesting because playstyles are so similar.
588 question RC
590,592 question RC
597 question Rando about reads
601 frustration
602 null
603 scumread me, Rando townread UTL
607 "Elyse, SRMP, RC scumteam maybe. (Two conftown here. If Cakez is scum this is an indicator that Rando is his partner)
608 push Elyse
610 scumread Rando
612 push Rando(Pushing rando when things look like they are headed for a cakez-lynch makes it more likely to be a bus)
614 offers to claim without intent.
616 claims.(way too eager to claim if he's actually a VT, but CKD was likewise)
618 Rando: defends against Cakez, unvotes.
620 defend claim. question Elyse
621 scumread Elyse
622 Rando: wants to avoid an early hammer.
623 Votes Elyse
626 push Elyse
629 give reasons for townread on camn.
631 RC: question Cakez about changed read on camn
638 scumread Elyse
648 scumreading me less. Theorize RC,Rando,Elyse team
651 question Rando
652 defend against Rando
655 null
658 defend against RC
659 defend against Rando
661 question Rando
663 scumread Rando
665 null
666 camn:Ultimatum
667 question camn
669 camn:gives reasons (I think camn is actually feeling the need to explain herself here. Point against cakes being scum with camn)
672 scumread Elyse
678 defend against CKD
680 disengage from Rando
682 defend against Rando
687 defend against CKD
689 diasengage from Rando
693 disengage from Rando
695 defend against CKD
708 camn: pushes Cakes
723 question camn, RC
726 question Elyse

740 confusion, accuse camn of rolefish
745 question camn
748 confusion
751 question CKD
761 vote CKD
782 push CKD
788 confusion
793 scumread Elyse
794 question Elyse about Zulf. nullread zulf
809 joke
838 question camn
842 "So you're basically scumreading him for crumbing cop?"
844 promise reads
849 scumread CKD for anti-townness.
865 reads "Camn - My iffiest read. Had her as scum day one, then town earlier today and now she's slipping back to scum. Really don't like the stuff with looking for who might be a cop, for example 833 at the end. As others have said she's rushing the lynch through and hard tunneling in a bad way. But I do like her earlier scumhunting and content so she's null leaning scum for me right now." (Null-scum swingy read is pretty classic partner-read)
871 buys RCs cop-claim?
873 push farmer
883 defend RC scumread Zulf
892 "Yeah I'm townreading tictac now. His posts have vastly improved today and I really like 886.
I also like UTL's case for Camn scum, I was already iffy on her. But CKD is still scummier."
Townreads me for siding with CKD, but CKD is his top scum. Looks like reluctance to go for camn.
898 question Zulf
908 joke
911 joke
915 joke
917 joke
921 prefer CKD lynch to camn
926 question RC
930 question/defend from RC
932 gneral defend
934 promise camn ISO
939 defend
941 question cop!RC
943 null
944 promise camn ISO
951 promise reads. "game needs my flip to progress"
953 promise reads
955 null
957 joke
960 facepalm at RCs camn vote
963 "I can lynch camn".Not voting.
964 "If I did get "all over it" people would call me opportunistic scum" Worried about how people see him, but I can see whoa town in his position might be"
966 vote camn, still wants to lynch CKD
968 "not bussing"
970 explain smileys
972 defend smileys
974 question RC about Elyse
976 Point out Elyses behaviour matches RCs theories. (Trying to confirm masons? Not seeing the point otherwise.)
977 RC gives a cakes associative as an answer.
978 defend
980 joke
982 eager for own flip
997 "We are lynching inside {Camn, SirCakez, CKD}" (I get nothing from this)
1001 answer Bells question
1007 confusion.

Day1:
-defending camn, while null-reading her.
-Defending against camn. I don't think camn is likely to bus like that, but Cakez insistance of tunneling!camn rather than scum!camn does make it iffy.
-says he was scumreading camn on day 1, but I'm not really seeing it.

Day2:
-camn continues Cakez push
-Cakez townreads camn until CKD thing.
-CKD: initially takes no stance and questions camns push, but changes tune pretty quickly
-camn becomes null-scum. Cakes continues to push CKD, but does vote camn when it's him or her and RC prompts him.

There's a mild/decent associtiative here, I think.
This is why I'm still hesitant: 558 is camn urging me to go after Cakez. Compare with 792. It's a thing she does as scum, and a strong point in favour of town!Cakez and a mild point against farmer(who I was then going after)

Spoiler: Zulf

17 RVS camn "for the quicklynch"
23 question Rando for lack of avatar.
31 joke about quicklynch
34 push quicklynch
78 question farmer,cakez
80 +1 me
86 joke
87 joke(apparently)
113 explain plusses.
114 defend
116 +1 me
117 +1 Rando
119 defend against/question Cakez
125 defend against Cakez
138 question camn("what's the right thing" It was really obvious from context, so might be asking just to be seen interacting)
183 "?"(no idea what this is referring to and nobody answered. Zulf didn't seem to mind)
203 "It also does but shes gonna wait. Can't imagine why."(ref Elyses naked vote on Cakez)
338 prodge

Day2:
628 defend lokiben+fluff
632 questions for farmer
633 correct his quoting (questions were never answered, and Zulf never addressed farmed before scumreading him in 1015)
634 "what's going on?"
636 "what is the point" on argument between me and UTL
637 @Cakes who was backtracking?(Elyse)
640 @me Is Elyses destructive confidence alignment indicative?
641 vote Elyse(sheep Cakez)
642 offer to answer questions
774 defend
780 CKD wagon 'shit', slight push for Elyse.
781 push Elyse
878 vote RC (chainsaw?)
880 meme
882 defend vote
897 question Cakes ("how")
898 Cakez:"How what?"(10 minutes later. This question never answered by Zulf. Doesn't look like he cared much about getting his question answered)
919 push RC
1000 push RC
1003 push RC
1008 hammer camn
1015 defend hammer, scumread farmer,RC,cakez
1032 'See?' (might refer to RCs 'copclaim'?)

Zulf pushes for RVS quicklynch on camn and later hammers her.
Other than that the only mention of her he makes is 138 "What is the right thing?". The answer to that question was really obvious from context, so doesn't really make sense for him to ask her that.
Day 2 RC push could be chainsawing for camn.

I'm thinking quicklynching/lolhammering your buddy would be a good way to get towncred if one is a really low effort player who would otherwise be prone to getting policy-lynched. I think it's suspicious that he tried both of those on camn.(as previously detailed, I think camn expected death anyway so would be cheaper than usual for scum)
Also somewhat noteworthy is that zulf

didn't

lolhammer Ika, but plausible that it's because he was absent.

Spoiler: Since camn references were so sparse I looked at camns zulf refs

126 camn agrees with zulfs ping
312 camn lists zulf as "propably not my partner" (listing all the players in this and 346)
389 very slight defend.
777 camn lists all players. zulfy weirdly as top town.

That is

everything

.
Having as little to do with her partners as possible jives way more with how I'd expect camn to behave, than pushing Cakez

tl;dr: I wanna lynch Zulfy instead.
VOTE: Zulf

[Elyse]

Well that's not happening

[UpTooLate]

Well that's not happening

VOTE: SirCakez

[tictac]

Ok, then. I think that's the hammer.
@Cakez What's the flip?

[SirCakez]

I was VT. Get it together tomorrow guys.

So
Town: Elyse, Zulfy
Null town: Tictac, CKD
Null: Loki
Null scum: UTL
Scum: Plain Farmer, SRMP

The lynch order after me should be Plain Farmer, SRMP, UTL unless CKD catches someone.

Requoting these for relevance. All still the same.

[Performer]

VOTE COUNT 3.05

SirCakez (5): Elyse, Some Random Mafia Player, a plain farmer, Zulfy, UpTooLate
tictac (1): curiouskarmadog
a plain farmer (1): SirCakez
Zulfy (1): tictac

No vote (1): Lokiben

With 9 players alive, it takes 5/9 votes to lynch.

For deadlines & notes, please refer to this post – post 3 !

-----
Day 3 lynch has been achieved on SirCakez.

SirCakez tried his best to help town. As the rope tightened on his neck, he looked into the distance by the trees. The setting Sun meant less light, which didn't help his vision. He squinted hard, trying to make out the dark figure. He thought he realized who it was! Is it really that person? His heart leaped into his throat, his vocal cords struggling to cooperate.

But it was too late - before he could shout out the name, he was hung.

"I hope this town gets it together," were his last thoughts.

SirCakez was a

Vanilla Townie.

[Performer]

VOTE COUNT 4.00

No vote (7): curiouskarmadog, Zulfy, UpTooLate, Lokiben, a plain farmer, tictac, Some Random Mafia Player

With 7 players alive, it takes 4/7 votes to lynch.

For deadlines & notes, please refer to this post – post 3 !

-----
She scratched her head, her lips turning upside down at the bewildering death of RC. She looked off into the sunset, racking her brain at possible connections between the townsfolk and the deaths.

"My dear buddy...may you rest in peace," she said at RadiantCowbell's tombstone. She placed some flowers at his grave, and proceeded to place some at SirCakez's grave site, as well as ika and acryon's tombstones.

"My oh my," a dark voice stated. "How sweet of you. I'm sure they appreciate the sentiment."

Elyse, without a moment's hesitation, began dashing across the field to her vehicle.
She never made it there.

Elyse was...
a

Town Mason!!!

[a plain farmer]

I'll look over some ISOs later, but for now my gut says (assuming 2 scum) SRMP is 75% chance of scum and UTL 50%. Everyone else is in the remaining 75%, which I wont rank right now.

If CKD saw someone visit Elyse he should say so, otherwise keep it to himself for now.

I'll also note the things I said about SRMP in 1050 are still relevant, since they didn't depend on Cakez being scum.

VOTE: SRMP

[curiouskarmadog]

fuck no...

I was blocked(?) last night. Got a "no result", which was different than what I had gotten before. When I asked mod what exactly that meant (I was pretty sure I knew though) since it was different than "he did not visit anyone", he just gave me the "it means what it means" statement [paraphrased].

so why the fuck was I blocked last night but not the night before?...hmm, maybe it was because I pushed a fucking tictac case yesterday?

VOTE: tictac

you are not going to lurk your way out of this day.

THIS is our lynch today.

I want EVERYONE's opinion of tictac TODAY! in your next post.

also, since I am dead tonight. At twilight I am going to give my night 2 result. they "didnt visit anyone" so I am not outing a PR, and that is information I should not die with.

[Lokiben]

VOTE: Zulfy

Everything I said in 1099 still applies. Will investigate tictac and SRMP later.

[curiouskarmadog]

hmmmm....if i was a betting man, I would put money on tictac showing up and voting Zulfy too.

Loki, your next post, I want your position on tictac.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

so why the fuck was I blocked last night but not the night before?...hmm, maybe it was because I pushed a fucking tictac case yesterday?

(insert statement about WIFOM here)