Micro 583: Kids With Guns (Game Over)

[Xtoxm]

confirm

[Xtoxm]

I cc that.

VOTE: not mafia

[Xtoxm]

The rolefish is stronk is this one.

p-ed: @wg

[Xtoxm]

So you knew...That's even worse >.<

I can see town doing that but i'm paranoid of you now.

Agreed on his reaction though.

[Xtoxm]

Xtoxm, why didn't you vote me if you possibly suspect me of role-fishing if I may ask?
~wgeurts

Because, I figured you didn't realise it was a night vig and I was pointing it out sardonically.

[Xtoxm]

Is it something you've previously done as scum?

[Xtoxm]

I think the fact KT was comfortable replying to it at all so quickly is a good town indication, and he's a new player afaik.

I especially like how wgeurts felt the need to preemptively defend himself against trust telling.

[Xtoxm]

Saying "I only do X as town"; for example "I only claim VT on D1 as town" or "I only replace out of games as town, remember that for next time".

@KT

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: lovelygiant

[Xtoxm]

Confirm mafia suicide bomber

Town motivation for this is...?

Scum motivation for this is..?

[Xtoxm]

As of right now,

Vote Lovely
FOS Kain

The early town feels I had on Kain are slipping hard, i'm wondering if this erratic play is part of a scum strategy. Didn't like the on-off the wagon with L-1, I can see it as jumpy newbscum.

That said, i'm not liking the PL push from Mae much either.

Pers>Nano>NM>Mae>Kain>Lovely

[Xtoxm]

Can you explain why lovely's at the bottom of your list and Not Mafia is fairly high?

I moved NM to the town side of things because he had the same reaction as me to Lovely's entry posts, which I feel makes it more likely he's town. I also felt he looked came out looking better from the people who wagoned BAG.

I'll go into my Lovely read when I have more time, hopefully tonight.

[Xtoxm]

To expand on my case in 68:

1. We're not lynching BAG this early. Calm yourselves. Looked at several of Aero's games and he seems to intelligent to just throw away. Obviously this goes both ways but, why? Naked votes hiding behind RVS excuses are lazy and sad..

VOTE: lovelygiant

Yup, you caught me hard defending my scummate.

Please, BAG could easily talk themselves out of a lynch and wouldn't need a teammate's defense this early.
Your paranoia is concerning.

Taking exception to a naked vote is i've observed (including from my own instincts) as something that's more likely to come from scum. The italicised feel to me like something scum would say when accused with someone who isn't their partner. I recall 63 pinging me at the time also but I can't quite put my finger on it.

69 strengthens the early read - This post feels really weird to me. It's really out of place for the stage of the game. He received 2 votes on page 3 and offered to be lynched. It reads like it's made with the intention of being townread rather than being genuine. No townie should be offering to be lynched in place of someone else, especially not on page 3. Directing the vig so early is out of place, too.

He later claims this offer was made to an early IC read on BAG, which I found surprising. I certainly hadn't picked up on it. What I will say here, is that it's a lot easier for scum to pick on on power tells (noting also mocking people for not having picked up on it in 281,282). He also mentions planning to use it to clear himself ??? in 279...Which I don't think is a town mindset.

His other posting doesn't ping me but does nothing to redeem the scum feel in my eyes. I'm still feeling like this is our best chance of hitting scum today.

Having lovely as a scumread was also a factor in NM being higher on my list, as I think their interactions are probablyyyy not those of scum partners.

Considering who lovely may be scum with, I guess i'm thinking Kain>Nano/Mae. Kain-lovely is possibly not a plausible team, though. But I certainly haven't had that feeling to the extent that I have with a NM/lovely team.

On Mae, i've had town feels to some degree from his recent posting. Especially 343. It's difficult to shit content as scum when you're at L-1. I find it weird that Kain's reaction to it is definite scum, such stark disagreement is something I take a scumtell. There's also the fact the bomb hasn't gone off, meaning Mae isn't the bomber (i'm aware this is only a 50/50).

I'd also like to see Nino take some hard stances.

[Xtoxm]

OK, I'm satisfied with Not_Mafia as scum, and pretty sure that Maestro is his partner. As noted, since Maestro didn't explode, N_M should be the lynch. The problem is that in this setup, scum's main advantage is numbers. Without bussing, it takes 5 of 6 to lynch scum, and it's tough to get 5 of 6 people to agree to anything. I believe lovely, BAG, and Kain are on board. If so, we need one of Xtox or Nino to agree.

An important point to remember is that

the bomb doesn't end phase

. If the bomber goes off, we still get a lynch. That means that we need time after the bomb to again get to majority. So, I suggest that we set an informal deadline of day 9 (I believe it's only day 5 now) for a lynch. That way if the bomber throws things into confusion, there's still 5 days to work out the lynch.

I'm obviously not going to allow the day to NL. We are far from that scenario. It's possible i'm wrong about lovely, I have been plenty times before. But i'm still going to try and lynch my strongest read. I'm surprised he hasn't worked his way round to omgusing me. If Lovely is town, then the team likely does involves Mae, given the failure of the wagon.

One thing i've noticed..Kain has voted everyone in the game except me, in fact he hasn't mentioned me once which makes me uncomfortable.

[Xtoxm]

Mae, where do you reads stand currently? Why did you unvote NM?

I do like NM's response to pressure less than I liked Mae's.

@Nino 383 suggests you want to vote Mae, but not yet. Am I reading that right? If not, who is scum?

[Xtoxm]

I would encourage people to read Persivul's posts

What are we meant to be looking for?

[Xtoxm]

Careful, I'm the last friend you've got.

[Xtoxm]

I think his theory is on point.

I'm not convinced on the NM-Mae scumteam.

[Xtoxm]

Well, NM-Mae means bomber-NM was bussing goon-Mae, and left Mae at L-1 with a clear and imminent danger of hammer. NM hasn't exactly set himself up for a solo game.

I could see:
Mae-Kain - Kain wagons everything that takes off, but passes up the chance to kill Mae. I fully expected him to hammer when L-1 came, but he didn't.
NM-Nino/Mae-Nino - Scum don't necessarily always quickhammer. If I squint real hard, the vanity vote looks like distancing.

Kain choosing not to hammer Mae is probably the biggest indicator of them all...If he's scum, then it's with Mae. He doesn't strike me as a scum with restraint.

If NM-Lovely, NM-Mae and NM-Kain all seem implausible scumteams, then there's not much left.

I just invalidated my Lovely-Kain theory, so VOTE: unvote for now. I'm probably going too far down the rabbit hole with these pre-flip associatives.

[Xtoxm]

Interesting.

[Xtoxm]

I don't want to let Nino and Mae just v/la the day out. Reminding me of scum-jasmine from some newbie game.

I won't wait too much longer, though.

[Xtoxm]

I don't want to let Nino and Mae just v/la the day out.

Reminding me of scum-jasmine from some newbie game.

I won't wait too much longer, though.

Says the guy who's on VLA until 3/1.

When I said that I wasn't expecting the LA. I put there so people/mods know, but i'm going to try and participate still.

Also, those 2 have been delaying content with their v/la's which I haven't.

[Xtoxm]

I'm not a great fan of his unvote though, I would like to see him place it back somewhere and some more posts containing thoughts on anyone would be nice. If Kain ever flips scum people should definitely revisit this read. He can be town for now though.

I like lovely's response to my effectively tunneling him all game. Scum change their reads to suit them. Town don't have that luxury. When I tunnel scum in the way I did with lovely, scum figure I can't be reasoned with and push back. Lovely showed no indication of that, he instead called me one of the most townie players. It is a town response. Also as mentioned, his hypothetical scumbuddy no longer made sense.

I'm ready to vote NM, but i'll wait for Nino to post/replacement. His reaction to being wagoned looks like scum. It's unlikely he's scum with Mae, the bomb should have gone off by now, one way or another.

I don't have Nino as unequivocal town, so wanna explain your read there? I have her as a strong contender for NM's buddy. NM's effortless push on her that is clearly going nowhere fuels this.

[Xtoxm]

His recent posting since has felt much better that his early posting, too. (re:lovely)

[Xtoxm]

Xtoxm - what were you pointing out sardonically? Were you

referencing the fact that the Vig in this setup is actually a NightVig

, or were you sardonically calling out the role fishing?

Totally contrary to Xt, I didn't like the preemptive strike on the trust tell thing. ...

It's not a thought process I see scum going through (shit, i've never done this as scum and i'm not scum this time either so I need to be careful how I answer). It's was also long winded way of saying "i've only ever done it as town".

No. No no no. I'm all for mindset-matching as Townhunting (or Scumhunting in multiball), but in this specific case it's absolute bullshit. Check the NM+Xt ISO below and you'll see. There was no mindset-matching possible here; they both naked-voted and that's LITERALLY ALL. Xtoxm didn't establish any mindset to match for this NM-townread. He just hopped on board and followed suit with the lovely lynch.

We made it at the same time in response to the same posts. Words are not always required, and I stand by that - It made sense at the time.

..."case"...meaning his naked vote...

Sarcasm is totally lost on you.

Establishing a hypothetical Vig-shot in-game in an Open Setup with a Vig is a great thing to do, since it allows the Vig to somewhat secretively. Not wanting to go along with that or actively calling it scummy isn't proTown; you (Xt) either don't understand the practice or you want it to fail.

Well, i've never played a setup like this before and I was expecting the vig to claim. Directing the vig prior to a claim is effectively a non-vig claim which town shouldn't be doing. Scum on the other hand, don't care. I expect townies to start directing vig in a well developed game but not so early on.

--

This is all i've got time for atm. I appreciate your content, Mae.

[Xtoxm]

I will after I finish addressing 457.

[Xtoxm]

Well shit. I regret getting cold feet on Lovely now. NM trolling was so scummy :/. I think my logic for Kain being town is probably still correct.

[Xtoxm]

Meaning Lovely+Nino

[Xtoxm]

...

Posting for nonhammer purposes.

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: Lovelygiant

[Xtoxm]

That was agonising waiting for Nino to turn up.

Wtf @ Kain. Putting someone at L-1 without the IC in lylo...

All i've wanted to do since drawing this role is blow myself up, but I didn't get to. Pers was right, it's mostly a neg. utility scum role.

GG all.

[Xtoxm]

And thanks guerts for the turbovote, I was expecting today to be a lot more difficult.

[Xtoxm]

During night I had Nino as scum but unfortunately went with Maestro. He was overly concerned with being vigged, setting up the next day's lynch, and just being rude. The star of the game was xtox. I was suspicious at first but he towned it up nicely and after my ISO reviews at night I had him firmly as town.

Thanks