Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Setael]

I skimmed the entire game and read the last several pages more closely which basically consisted of the wagon on BM. There's no way I could've missed Thok saying he had blocked me the night before and was going to block me again last night.

[Thok]

The Fonz, what does ESE stand for?

[The Fonz]

Esoteric society of erotica.

[Fritzler]

\If you merely skimmed the game, it is possible you

didn't

know Thok would RB you.

This guy caught me up on the came, but I'm still catching up myself.

^5.

[ThAdmiral]

I'm vanilla – the town butcher.

Thok, saetel an akbar all out tonight.

I'd say that's pretty damning.

vote: saetel

[Setael]

It would be damning... if it were true. I think it's pretty obvious, however, that I would've had to be a complete idiot to attempt a night kill last night if I were mafia. So, frankly, it's obvious that you're trying to set me up.

Thok hasn't actually done anything to deceive anyone - he just made some wrong assumptions, so I could've been wrong about his alignment, now that ThAdmiral is obviously scum. It could just be ThAdmiral and Tarhalindur as mafia and werewolf. It's still possibly Thok - ThAdmiral, or all 3 of them together if there are still 2 mafia or 2 werewolves.

Let's see how this would play out if you lynch me, which is obviously what ThAdmiral is going to push for. When I come up Town, whoever is mafia will no longer have me as "obvscum" to hide behind so they'll probably start making NKs again. If ThAdmiral is a werewolf, there's a chance whoever is mafia will choose to not NK another night since ThAdmiral will see them. They might NK anyway, since ThAdmiral surely already knows who they are by process of elimination, especially if there are still 2 werewolves. If ThAdmiral is mafia, he will definitely make a NK.

So let's say whoever is mafia makes a NK tonight - I'm guessing once I come up Town Thok will block ThAdmiral, but if Thok thinks Tar is the mafia (or if Thok and ThAdmiral are both wolves) then obviously he won't. It's a lot more likely that ThAdmiral is a werewolf, since his power seems unlikely to be given to a mafia. In that case, either Thok or Tarhalindur or both are mafia. If so, they'd also make a NK and likely succeed, unless Thok isn't aligned with either of them and chooses correctly and blocks the mafia.

We can assume one of the confirmed townies will be NK'd tonight. Let's say it's Fritzler. That leaves The Fonz and Akbar as confirmed townies. Day dawns. You probably have either 2 townies, with 2 werewolves and a mafia or 3 townies with one werewolf and one mafia. That'll be interesting. If the werewolves push for the mafia to be lynched, then it may end up 2 townies and 2 wolves. If there is only 1 wolf left, he'd probably try to get one of the townies lynched, but that puts him at risk to get NK'd the next night. If the mafia chose to NK a townie, it'd then be 1 wolf, 1 townie and 1 mafia. Then what? They both try to convince the townie that they're town? If that's the case, it'll end with one townie and one either mafia or wolf. Would that mean victory for whichever survives of the mafia or wolf? Or is it already over if it ends up 1 townie, 1 mafia, 1 wolf? I've never gotten to lylo with 2 scum groups so I don't know how that works.

So anyway. We can't afford another mislynch if there are either 2 wolves or 2 mafia left. Unless I'm misunderstanding how it works with 2 scum groups, we'd almost certainly lose. If there's only 1 mafia and 1 werewolf, we'd still have a chance at winning if we choose correctly the rest of the time. I'm voting the one person I know is either mafia or a werewolf. I'd rather get the mafia out of the way, and I'm pretty sure ThAdmiral is actually a werewolf, but for all I know one of either Thok or Tar is Town. ThAdmiral is the only one who has blatantly tried to deceive the Town, and must therefore be either a werewolf or mafia.

vote: ThAdmiral

[The Fonz]

Thok's claim is imho stronger than Akbar's.

Also, how do you square your suspicion of ThAdmiral with his dead partner declaring that they knew one another to be innocent?

[Thok]

Kison didn't actually say that the two witches knew each other alignments. That said, Setael's basically doing a repeat of theopor's "I can't possibly scum" play from two days ago. She's also keeping her options extremely open in terms of who can be in what scum group (I would have expected pro-town Setael to go back and try to read to try to get a feel for that.)

To counter her arguements about not killing, 1. you may not have realized that you would be tracked even if you were roleblocked (that actually requires a bit of research to verify), 2. it's not as if you can afford to just completely give up on your night kill, 3. I only said I would try to block scum last night (and not necessarily celtic/you), and you might have hoped that I chose to block Tarhalidur.

Is there any reason why ThAdmiral would bother to lie?

I'm more worried about trying to figure out what's going on with the wolves at the moment. I'm trying to decide if the ESE was meant to be millerish. (If you don't understand why it's potentially millerish, good for you.)

[Setael]

You say I'm doing "I can't possibly be scum" - would you prefer that vanillas say "I could be scum, but I'm not." That doesn't really make sense. I'm not mafia and I'm not a werewolf, so my play is obviously going to be "I can't possibly be scum."

She's also keeping her options extremely open in terms of who can be in what scum group (I would have expected pro-town Setael to go back and try to read to try to get a feel for that.)

I was posting under the assumption that this close to the end, we should be able to figure it out by process of elimination. However, as I wrote that post last night I realized that I do need to read up on Thok and Tarhalindur to find out which one is more likely the last mafia or a werewolf. I'm working on that now. This is an incredibly long thread, but I should be able to post that soon.

1. you may not have realized that you would be tracked even if you were roleblocked (that actually requires a bit of research to verify)

ThAdmiral, be sure to use your broom tonight; the mass-tracking is very likely more helpful than the any inventions you send out.

If you call reading a very obvious statement that was written only a few posts before I replaced in doing quite a bit of research, then I guess I did.

2. it's not as if you can afford to just completely give up on your night kill

That is exactly what mafia is doing. They know they will be seen and so they are not making a night kill. It actually makes a lot of sense. It also is an excellent argument for why ThAdmiral is more likely a werewolf than mafia. If he was mafia, he would have no reason to not make night kills. However, if he is a werewolf and not seeing anyone at night because no one is making a night kill, why not frame someone?

3. I only said I would try to block scum last night (and not necessarily celtic/you), and you might have hoped that I chose to block Tarhalidur.

You were convinced that the reason there had been no NK was because you had blocked me. There could be no doubt reading over the last few pages that you would block me again last night.

[Thok]

You say I'm doing "I can't possibly be scum" - would you prefer that vanillas say "I could be scum, but I'm not." That doesn't really make sense. I'm not mafia and I'm not a werewolf, so my play is obviously going to be "I can't possibly be scum."

My point is that your only arguments that you aren't scum is that you are claiming that you aren't scum and that you would have to be stupid to nightkill. Neither of these is compelling to me at all.

1. you may not have realized that you would be tracked even if you were roleblocked (that actually requires a bit of research to verify)

ThAdmiral, be sure to use your broom tonight; the mass-tracking is very likely more helpful than the any inventions you send out.

If you call reading a very obvious statement that was written only a few posts before I replaced in doing quite a bit of research, then I guess I did.

You've missed my point. It's very common that a player who is roleblocked can't also be tracked (since their action was stopped from happening). Unless you read Kison posts or compared Kison's night choices and my night choices, you wouldn't have known that you would be tracked even if you were blocked.

2. it's not as if you can afford to just completely give up on your night kill

That is exactly what mafia is doing. They know they will be seen and so they are not making a night kill. It actually makes a lot of sense. It also is an excellent argument for why ThAdmiral is more likely a werewolf than mafia. If he was mafia, he would have no reason to not make night kills. However, if he is a werewolf and not seeing anyone at night because no one is making a night kill, why not frame someone?

Except that the last few nights were the only nights where it's possible to argue that any scum group gave up their night kill. Theopor tried to commit a nightkill even when he knew he would be watched, and the wolves took a similar risk two nights ago. (All other missed wolf kills clearly match up with day kills.)

3. I only said I would try to block scum last night (and not necessarily celtic/you), and you might have hoped that I chose to block Tarhalidur.

You were convinced that the reason there had been no NK was because you had blocked me. There could be no doubt reading over the last few pages that you would block me again last night.

I was convinced that the reason for a lack of mafia nightkill was because I blocked you. It's possible I could have tried to block the wolves' nightkill.

[Akbar]

The witches have been true to us up to this point. If they were scummers, why would they give us the magic items, instead of handing them off to each other?

Vote Setael

[Mr. Flay]

First Vote Count of Day Seven:

2: Setael (ThAdmiral, Akbar)

1: ThAdmiral (Setael)

4: Not Voting (Thok, The Fonz, Tarhalindur, Fritzler)

With seven alive, four votes will be sufficient to lynch.

[ThAdmiral]

The witches have been true to us up to this point. If they were scummers, why would they give us the magic items, instead of handing them off to each other?

Vote Setael

To be fair I'm not sure we could have even if we wanted to.

Thok: If saetel comes up town you have my express permission to block me. It's not going to happen though.

[Setael]

The witches have been true to us up to this point. If they were scummers, why would they give us the magic items, instead of handing them off to each other?

I guess so that you'd trust them implicitly come lylo.

[The Fonz]

Kison didn't actually say that the two witches knew each other alignments.

I'm pretty sure I asked the Witch sisters that specific question at some point, and got an affirmative answer.

[Thok]

Hmm. I couldn't find that when I went looking for it. In any case, I've seen most of what I'm looking for today, so

vote Setael

.

[Tarhalindur]

*takes a break from reading, glances over last 2 pages*

So, unless ThAdmiral is lying, we can be pretty sure that Setael is lying scum.

Anyone have anything they want to add

(Side note: from my perspective, unless I'm missing something, the only way that this setup makes sense is if both of the claimed ESE members are actually lying scum. I'll look over this for support when I get a chance.)

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Anyone have anything they want to have before I drop the hammer?

[Setael]

That puts me at -1. I can't tell if Thok is once again intentionally pushing a Townie mislynch, or if he really doesn't know and is just Town voting for the wrong person. Regardless, even if I am mislynched, there's a good possibility the Town can still win, especially if I'm wrong about how many bad guys are still alive.

Thok was certain yesterday that there would still be at least 2 werewolves and a mafia. He doesn't seem to be emphasizing that very much, now.
@Thok: Have you decided you were wrong about there being 2 werewolves left, or do you think one of the claimed roles is actually a werewolf?

If there are indeed still 2 werewolves AND a mafia, then if you mislynch me, the Town will likely lose. If that's not the case, and there is only a mafia and one werewolf or some other combination, then well... I really don't know who to suggest you go after tomorrow. Both ThAdmiral and Thok's play has seemed Town so either they're really good at sounding Town when they're not, or Tarhalindur is the only scum left. I don't see any reason to doubt Akbar's claim so I don't think it's possible he's scum. Is there any chance there are no werewolves left, and only one mafia?

[Thok]

@Tarhalindur-if the ESE were scum, they probably would have quicklynched Setael, daykilled me and won by now. If you were actually protown, you would be screaming that we have to keep Setael alive so we don't lose. (I actually was holding my vote back on Setael to watch for that possibility.)

Also, if you honestly felt the ESE were werewolves, you'd be pushing for their lynch, not asking permission to hammer Setael, as lynching Setael could cause us to lose in that scenario.

@Setael-if there were no werewolves left, who ate Lowell?

Also, my other argument for going after BM yesterday was that there were 3 unconfirmed players alive. Nothing really has changed with that, except we now have two unconfirmed players left.

It's fun to try to watch you argue your way out of this lynch, but you don't really have a leg to stand on.

[Setael]

@Setael-if there were no werewolves left, who ate Lowell?

Good point. This means that either you, Tarhalindur, or ThAdmiral are a werewolf (and possibly two of you are a werewolf).

It seems as though you are laughing at me for trying to discover who the actual mafia are. I would say "You won't feel so smug when I come up Town" but if you are scum, you will have every reason to feel smug. As you just pointed out, there is a lot more reason to lynch Tarhalindur than to lynch me. It's quite scummy to keep your vote on me and leave me vulnerable to a Tarhalindur hammer, when you have just shown him to be obvscum.

[Thok]

It's quite scummy to keep your vote on me and leave me vulnerable to a Tarhalindur hammer, when you have just shown him to be obvscum.

If Tarhalindur had a partner, he would already have hammered you, daykilled me and won. Also, from my point of view, nobody makes sense as a potential Tarhalindur's wolf-partner. If Tarhalidur is a lone wolf, the scum have to be you and Tarhalindur, and frankly I don't really care which order I lynch the two of you.

Feel free to keep squirming.

[Mr. Flay]

Final Vote Count of Day Seven:

4: Setael (ThAdmiral, Akbar, Thok)

1: ThAdmiral (Setael)

3: Not Voting (The Fonz, Tarhalindur, Fritzler)

---

Thok's persuasive argument convinces the town, and they almost immediately lead Setael to the gallows, without even waiting for the broader consensus. In the end, the body of the Master of the Estate swings in the breeze as the sun sets.

Setael - Lucius Lovato - Lynched - Day 7

It is now Night 7; please get your role choices in to me by the end of Tuesday, October 9th.

[Mr. Flay]

A full night's rest, and the day looks brighter... brighter still for still seeing everyone in the morning that went to bed last night.

No one died - Night 7.

It is now Day Eight; with six alive, it will take four votes to lynch.

[Thok]

I blocked Tarhalindur last night, but I suspect that's not what actually stopped the nightkill. (Pending what ThAdmiral says; I think today's a wolf daykill day, although I could be wrong about that. Pretty sure my current theory about daykills is correct.)

Apparently the awesome orb of awareness gave me a double vote yesterday. (I used it Night 6.) It should be clear from my end of the day discussion that I wasn't expecting a double vote to actually occur. Also, I can't use the orb any more.

FOS Tarhalindur

, as continuation from yesterday. This is likely turning into a vote Tarhalindur soon.