Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Apologies for my inactivity today, was in another game that was in LYLO (now finished).

Catching up.

[SummerInWonderland]

okay YA.
look at where I talk about posts 755 and 786 in my post.
basically why the hell would he turn away from his number 1 scum?? he said he didnt think that would happen.... like I don't buy it.
I said I never dropped my thing on UTL because I was convinced she was scum. It wasn't a popular idea at the time and I still pushed because it is what I believed.
he just dropped it- again I don't buy it.
also smith recently has said some really good stuff- why switch to shannon? even though I don't strongly think right now she would be Irchers scumbuddy- I told smith I would look into it- I have not gone back yet to do so. but in my initial read of Ircher and the situation made me think it was Ircher and YA.
Again I think Icher or Egg is the key (leaning Ircher) is YA right about Egg? or going for easy mislynch (thor brought this up once about the easy mislynch I believe) This is why we all need Eggman to be posting more!!
but Irchers actions dont make sense and If people look back at my post you will my thoughts more clearly on it. why didnt he push people away from the Radja case if he was so sure??
so many questions.....

[mhsmith0]

How about taking what I say at face value?

Does it really seem THAT absurd for a townie to behave the way they did?

Congrats on your win KAAG.

[Ircher]

I have not put as much effort into this game (much like Newbie 1682), yet my meta will clearly show that this behavior is rather typical of me. I am being sincere in my posts.

[mhsmith0]

How about taking what I say at face value?

Does it really seem THAT absurd for a townie to behave the way they did?

Yes. It really does seem THAT absurd for a townie to behave the way you did. At face value, you thought that UTL/Rad was a clear mislynch (99% odds), and just tossed in a couple of comments here and there against it as opposed to making any kind of genuine effort to derail it.
Note: your "efforts" here seemed to mainly be:
559

Eh, the UTL case is decent, but I also see a lot of conf. bias in the case which significantly weakens it. I'd rather anakyze that nextt day phase.

566

Anyway, conf. bias isn't one of those things you point out; you can tell by looking at how the players respond. In this case, UTL seemed overky focused on you and keen to point out the slightest errors you made. But, I have a good feeling that she truly thought you were scum and didn't realize she was tunneling you.

674 (post hammer)

If Radja is town, YA is guaranteed scum.
Radja scum meabs high possibility that ya is scum.

So when you say

Also, I expressed numerous times why I thought the Radja/Utl case was flawed on D1, so you can rule out the option that I was scum trying to force a ML on Radja.

it simply doesn't fly. You tossed a bit of doubt onto the lynch, but if you were THAT sure that UTL/Rad was a mislynch, you needed to do most or all of the following:

- clearly and aggressively state that you thought it was a bad wagon;
- attack the logic of the people who were voting there;
- be on a plausible counter wagon at EOD (in this case, nearing EOD it was super clear that Egg was the ONLY plausible counter wagon);
- clearly and aggressively sell the Egg wagon even after the fake hammer stuff (or do the same for a different counter-wagon).

Instead you were 0/4. You say you thought it was a clear mislynch, yet your efforts amounted to shrugging and saying "hey guys, I kind of think you might possibly be making a mistake here". And the most meaningful thing you did with respect to the UTL/Rad wagon was ABANDONING THE COUNTER WAGON. When push came to shove, your vote was simply not where it needed to be given your stated opinions of the game state.

Seriously, that's horrendous townie behavior. MAYBE I could consider giving a pass for a total newb town pulling that kind of crap. But you're not. So no pass here. Or am I misreading you? If so, please explain how.

PPE I guess I'll have to dig into your meta since you can't excuse your behavior on the face of it. I will say that if you're town you seriously need to work on upping your game. Because what you did, given what you state your perspective was, was outright horrific.

[YawningAngel]

I have not put as much effort into this game (much like Newbie 1682), yet my meta will clearly show that this behavior is rather typical of me. I am being sincere in my posts.

How about taking what I say at face value?

Does it really seem THAT absurd for a townie to behave the way they did?

Congrats on your win KAAG.

basically why the hell would he turn away from his number 1 scum?? he said he didnt think that would happen.... like I don't buy it.

I literally did that exactly that when I hammered Radja. Ircher seems to have turned off "his number 1 scum" for exactly the same reason I did. He decided his preferred lynch wasn't going to happen (and lest you think he was bluffing on Eggman, he literally says in #483 "Let's hammer the scum", so it was a pretty hardcore bluff) and decided to prosecute his second-best lynch instead. I would have done exactly the same thing in his position, except that his second-favourite lynch happened to be Radja.

Fyi, I'm supporting only an Egg or an Aero lynch today. The former because its rather scummy, the latter because it is *ahem* suspicious and would also be a good info lynch.

This, on the other hand, could do with some explaining given that you seem to have switched vote with a very thing justification. I don't object to you not being on Radja or Eggman, but I

am

a little curious about why exactly you threw the vote on Shannon out.

I have not put as much effort into this game (much like Newbie 1682), yet my meta will clearly show that this behavior is rather typical of me. I am being sincere in my posts.

How about taking what I say at face value?

Does it really seem THAT absurd for a townie to behave the way they did?

Congrats on your win KAAG.

???

[YawningAngel]

Err, holy formatting issues batman. Please ignore all quotes of post 828 and the first quote of post 827 when reading.

Send me a PM with the posts formatted the way you intended and I'll fix the formats

[Ircher]

Ircher, you have 48 hours to convince me not to vote for you or I will vote for you, EVEN IF if is a hammer. You MUST do at least one of the three:

1) role claim without a counter claim (IF HE ROLE CLAIMS NO ONE COUNTER CLAIM UNTIL I DISCUSS THIS FURTHER)
2) successfully defend yourself against the accusations, both from me and others
3) find an even stronger lynch candidate

Consider this advance warning of intent to hammer. You have PLENTY of time to see this and react accordingly.

NO ONE HAMMER IRCHER BEFORE MY DEADLINE IS UP. ESPECIALLY NOT YA.

Here's my defense:

I am being sincere. While sincerity leads to trouble (see N1666), it's still sincere & therefore I'm town.

[mhsmith0]

KAAG's 825 referenced a game just finished, in which he won as scum. I was congratulating him.

[YawningAngel]

Ah, gotcha. Cheers

[YawningAngel]

Ircher, you have 48 hours to convince me not to vote for you or I will vote for you, EVEN IF if is a hammer. You MUST do at least one of the three:

1) role claim without a counter claim (IF HE ROLE CLAIMS NO ONE COUNTER CLAIM UNTIL I DISCUSS THIS FURTHER)
2) successfully defend yourself against the accusations, both from me and others
3) find an even stronger lynch candidate

Consider this advance warning of intent to hammer. You have PLENTY of time to see this and react accordingly.

NO ONE HAMMER IRCHER BEFORE MY DEADLINE IS UP. ESPECIALLY NOT YA.

Here's my defense:

I am being sincere. While sincerity leads to trouble (see N1666), it's still sincere & therefore I'm town.

I don't find this terribly convincing. Even as town, sincerity that gets you into trouble isn't amazingly productive - if you get mislynched, you've effectively allowed the scum two kills (your mislynch and a subsequent NK). While you should of course try to provide accurate and complete information, doing so in a way that ends with substantial suspicion on you isn't desirable.

[SummerInWonderland]

Lol I just looked over your game KAAG! you seem to be one hell of a scum player

[Ircher]

How about taking what I say at face value?

Does it really seem THAT absurd for a townie to behave the way they did?

Yes. It really does seem THAT absurd for a townie to behave the way you did. At face value, you thought that UTL/Rad was a clear mislynch (99% odds), and just tossed in a couple of comments here and there against it as opposed to making any kind of genuine effort to derail it.
Note: your "efforts" here seemed to mainly be:
559

Eh, the UTL case is decent, but I also see a lot of conf. bias in the case which significantly weakens it. I'd rather anakyze that nextt day phase.

566

Anyway, conf. bias isn't one of those things you point out; you can tell by looking at how the players respond. In this case, UTL seemed overky focused on you and keen to point out the slightest errors you made. But, I have a good feeling that she truly thought you were scum and didn't realize she was tunneling you.

674 (post hammer)

If Radja is town, YA is guaranteed scum.
Radja scum meabs high possibility that ya is scum.

So when you say

Also, I expressed numerous times why I thought the Radja/Utl case was flawed on D1, so you can rule out the option that I was scum trying to force a ML on Radja.

it simply doesn't fly. You tossed a bit of doubt onto the lynch, but if you were THAT sure that UTL/Rad was a mislynch, you needed to do most or all of the following:

- clearly and aggressively state that you thought it was a bad wagon;

I'm not aggressive, but I clearly explained why -- evident confirmation bias from Utl

- attack the logic of the people who were voting there;

The case is factually sound, but doesn't consider motives and the like. Aka, people ignored the logical possibility that it could be TvT with confirmation bias mixed in. Which, again, I did address D1.

- be on a plausible counter wagon at EOD (in this case, nearing EOD it was super clear that Egg was the ONLY plausible counter wagon);

This is a fair point. Okay, so a bit of an expansion on my switch to Shannon : 1) I already thought the wagon was derailed by Thor (yes, tech I did kill it) 2) Shannon's replace in struck me as scummy 3) I was being lazy and didn't feel like making cases. I'm better at reading town and PoEing scum

- clearly and aggressively sell the Egg wagon even after the fake hammer stuff (or do the same for a different counter-wagon).

Not my playstyle, and with such a low content slot, very hard to get anything besides pl level stuff on ir. Lurkers can be scum. Stop forgetting that lurkers have a habit of being scum, ESPECIALLY Newbie games cuz of the number of newbie scum flakes (hence the DayTalk experiment)

Instead you were

0/4.

2/4

- If you were being fair to me, you'd at least give me 2/4.

You say you thought it was a clear mislynch, yet your efforts amounted to shrugging and saying "hey guys, I

kind of

think you

might possibly be

are

making a mistake here". And the most meaningful thing you did with respect to the UTL/Rad wagon was ABANDONING THE COUNTER WAGON. When push came to shove, your vote was simply not where it needed to be given your stated opinions of the game state.

See my confession above. Yes, the vote move was wrong, but cannot fix mistakes you know.

Seriously, that's horrendous townie behavior. MAYBE I could consider giving a pass for a total newb town

A meta dive will help you read me.

pulling that kind of crap. But you're not. So no pass here. Or am I misreading you? If so, please explain how.

Meta: Seen as an easier mislynch target, generally, this stuff happens unintentionally and I don't realize my mistake til well after. I've gotten better, but my work ethic here has decreased resulting in scummier behavior as I don't take the time to expand on things.

PPE I guess I'll have to dig into your meta since you can't excuse your behavior on the face of it. I will say that if you're town you seriously need to work on upping your game. Because what you did, given what you state your perspective was, was outright horrific.

Give me some slack, will you? Ok, maybe what I did D1 wasn't the best play (or even good play), but nonetheless, it could've been worse. I don't intentionally do stuff that gets me mislynched. I just post without thinking of all possibilities & therefore get mislynched. I am still very new to Mafia. I have a very small amount of experience elsewhere (2 games on a non-mafia related forum), so all of my experience playing has been on this site.

Stuff in bold

[Ircher]

Ircher, you have 48 hours to convince me not to vote for you or I will vote for you, EVEN IF if is a hammer. You MUST do at least one of the three:

1) role claim without a counter claim (IF HE ROLE CLAIMS NO ONE COUNTER CLAIM UNTIL I DISCUSS THIS FURTHER)
2) successfully defend yourself against the accusations, both from me and others
3) find an even stronger lynch candidate

Consider this advance warning of intent to hammer. You have PLENTY of time to see this and react accordingly.

NO ONE HAMMER IRCHER BEFORE MY DEADLINE IS UP. ESPECIALLY NOT YA.

Here's my defense:

I am being sincere. While sincerity leads to trouble (see N1666), it's still sincere & therefore I'm town.

I don't find this terribly convincing. Even as town, sincerity that gets you into trouble isn't amazingly productive - if you get mislynched, you've effectively allowed the scum two kills (your mislynch and a subsequent NK). While you should of course try to provide accurate and complete information, doing so in a way that ends with substantial suspicion on you isn't desirable.

Literally, rthat is my meta. I've yet to have a scum game, but nonetheless, you read players based on their playstyle which generally means having an idea of their meta.

I infer metas fyi and I'm usually pretty good at it. But, some people have to do the meta dives & I'm sure I'm a bit of a wildcard that would neccessitate it. But, the first step to finding scum is to communicate with your scumreads in a way that does not include conf bias.

[YawningAngel]

Seems like a reasonable accounting to me. I don't agree with your approach to the game, but as long as you're consistent about it (and I'm sure mhsmith will find out if you aren't) then it isn't proof of anything on its own.

[SummerInWonderland]

A meta dive will help you read me. pulling that kind of crap. But you're not. So no pass here. Or am I misreading you? If so, please explain how. Meta: Seen as an easier mislynch target, generally, this stuff happens unintentionally and I don't realize my mistake til well after. I've gotten better, but my work ethic here has decreased resulting in scummier behavior as I don't take the time to expand on things.

Okay so basically you say a meta dive will help get a read on you...
you also say you get mislynched- but even though you have gotten better you havent put much work into this game- okay you have been posting quite a bit! wait your defense is basically you are a bad town player???? like that is all you got?

Give me some slack, will you? Ok, maybe what I did D1 wasn't the best play (or even good play), but nonetheless, it could've been worse. I don't intentionally do stuff that gets me mislynched. I just post without thinking of all possibilities & therefore get mislynched. I am still very new to Mafia. I have a very small amount of experience elsewhere (2 games on a non-mafia related forum), so all of my experience playing has been on this site.

again you are just saying you are a bad town player... oh a bad new town player

Literally, rthat is my meta. I've yet to have a scum game, but nonetheless, you read players based on their playstyle which generally means having an idea of their meta.

okay so you want people to meta dive but you havent had a scum game.... like...how can someone meta read you if you have never played one of the alignments. That makes no sense.

839- YA- this seems like a weird defense. this is a stawman I think- you are saying his approach is bad when that is not what smith argued- you are defending Ircher for bogus reasons that I don't believe you believe.

[Ircher]

So, you don't believe me?

Tough luck; town will lose this. And no, I'm not a bad player, I am a unique player.

[mhsmith0]

...
Here's my defense:

I am being sincere. While sincerity leads to trouble (see N1666), it's still sincere & therefore I'm town.

I don't find this terribly convincing. Even as town, sincerity that gets you into trouble isn't amazingly productive - if you get mislynched, you've effectively allowed the scum two kills (your mislynch and a subsequent NK). While you should of course try to provide accurate and complete information, doing so in a way that ends with substantial suspicion on you isn't desirable.

@YA: Do you find Ircher sincere here? Why or why not?

[Ircher]

And, the lack of a scum game means little.

Sure, no one has seen scum me, byt one would imply that it be similar to town me with a few changes I shall not divulge. Regardless though, I'm saying that if you don't understand the way I play, you will read me wrong every single time. That's how Radja was able to read me (correctly); he modded N1682 and therefore had a general idea of my playstyle.

[Ircher]

@Mhsmith

Learn a little more about my playstyle, then ask me any questions you still wish for me to answer.

[Ircher]

...
Here's my defense:

I am being sincere. While sincerity leads to trouble (see N1666), it's still sincere & therefore I'm town.

I don't find this terribly convincing. Even as town, sincerity that gets you into trouble isn't amazingly productive - if you get mislynched, you've effectively allowed the scum two kills (your mislynch and a subsequent NK). While you should of course try to provide accurate and complete information, doing so in a way that ends with substantial suspicion on you isn't desirable.

@YA: Do you find Ircher sincere here? Why or why not?

From someone besides my own perspective, I would find it null & could go either way tbh.

[mhsmith0]

@Mhsmith

Learn a little more about my playstyle, then ask me any questions you still wish for me to answer.

I plan to. This is part of why I didn't just slap on a vote for you and give YA the chance to hammer again.

[Ircher]

A meta dive will help you read me. pulling that kind of crap. But you're not. So no pass here. Or am I misreading you? If so, please explain how. Meta: Seen as an easier mislynch target, generally, this stuff happens unintentionally and I don't realize my mistake til well after. I've gotten better, but my work ethic here has decreased resulting in scummier behavior as I don't take the time to expand on things.

Okay so basically you say a meta dive will help get a read on you...
you also say you get mislynched- but even though you have gotten better you havent put much work into this game- okay you have been posting quite a bit! wait your defense is basically you are a bad town player???? like that is all you got?

Not at all what I'm saying. You can tell when I'm putting a lot of effort into the game; you already have evidence of such when I replaced in. Post count has luttle to do with effort; here's how you see how much effort I'm putting in: look at the number of spoilers I make.

Give me some slack, will you? Ok, maybe what I did D1 wasn't the best play (or even good play), but nonetheless, it could've been worse. I don't intentionally do stuff that gets me mislynched. I just post without thinking of all possibilities & therefore get mislynched. I am still very new to Mafia. I have a very small amount of experience elsewhere (2 games on a non-mafia related forum), so all of my experience playing has been on this site.

again you are just saying you are a bad town player... oh a bad new town player

Not bad, but yes, new.

Literally, rthat is my meta. I've yet to have a scum game, but nonetheless, you read players based on their playstyle which generally means having an idea of their meta.

okay so you want people to meta dive but you havent had a scum game.... like...how can someone meta read you if you have never played one of the alignments. That makes no sense.

I see other people who lurk as their playstyle and they get away with it. Just lost to that guy in fact TWICE because he has a meta of lyrking and not contributing enough. So, what you are basically saying is that my meta means absoluteky nothing and everyone should play the same way? No, I know you are better than that and simply do not understand what you said. Meta is a tool. You learn how people play by looking at it. Once you understand a player's playstyle, you can better guage their alignment. So, even if meta is null, it is still important to have an idea or else you cannot have an accurate of a player.

839- YA- this seems like a weird defense. this is a stawman I think- you are saying his approach is bad when that is not what smith argued- you are defending Ircher for bogus reasons that I don't believe you believe.

Not sure if YA is being Sincere but I lean towards is. And his reasoning is quite frankly not bogus, but again, not sure what to make of it. He obviously would realize that buddying to me as scum would be a poor choice since the defense isn't spectacular, so I lean towards Town YA here.

[YawningAngel]

@SIW Yeah you're totally right. I'm scum, Ircher is my buddy, and I thought the best way to avoid getting him lynched was to post a half-arsed defence that is obviously untrue, thereby incriminating myself in the process.

Does that sound implausible to you? Because it sounds pretty implausible to me, and it's what you're implying. If I'm not scum, I have no reason to post a defence I don't believe. If I am scum, I have no reason to post a defence for someone who isn't my buddy - I could just go pour myself a beer and wait for mhsmith to hammer him. I don't see the strawman you think I'm attacking and I don't know exactly what you think my defence of him is, but you seem to be grossly misunderstanding my position. I will outline it as follows:

1. Eggman is almost certainly scum (P ~ 0.8)
2. If Eggman is scum, then all of the people who helped get him off the hook (KAAG, Ircher, shannon, SIW) are suspect
3. If Eggman isn't scum, I don't have a good theory to advance right now
4. I'm inclined to assume people with equal scumcases to answer are equally likely to be scum - people who

seem

less scummy might just good scum or bad townies (and vice-versa).

Thus I'm putting the probability that Ircher is scum at ~0.25 (less a bit for Eggman not being certainly scum, plus a little for the even distribution in that case, I can't be arsed to math it out because I'm not being that precise). Neither you nor mhsmith has made a constructive case that alters my view of that, so that's where my ballparking of the probability sits. I'm not going to sit here and let you lynch one of the people in a four-way tie when someone who a) I think is much more probably scum and b) is a fucking liability to take into LYLO is just sunning himself somewhere on a beach. mhsmith has summed it up pretty well, actually (heck, something has to be in those walls of text somewhere ) : if you think that the wagon that's about to go down is a probably mislynch (and I definitely do) then any sensible townie should be pointing this out in increasingly shrill tones and making the case forcibly for the better lynch. So here I am, doing exactly that.

tl;dr

Eggman is far scummier than Ircher could ever be (and indeed is), why the fuck are we even entertaining hammering Ircher over a pretty half-assed case?

[YawningAngel]

...
Here's my defense:

I am being sincere. While sincerity leads to trouble (see N1666), it's still sincere & therefore I'm town.

I don't find this terribly convincing. Even as town, sincerity that gets you into trouble isn't amazingly productive - if you get mislynched, you've effectively allowed the scum two kills (your mislynch and a subsequent NK). While you should of course try to provide accurate and complete information, doing so in a way that ends with substantial suspicion on you isn't desirable.

@YA: Do you find Ircher sincere here? Why or why not?

You don't tell obvious lies when someone is giving their hammer a polish next to your head. I definitely think he believes his meta will be exculpatory, yes. I don't set much store by it myself, and I couldn't stop you hammering him for it if I did, so I'm just going to let you two argue the toss over this because I think it's time-consuming and not terribly productive.