Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Good night YA. @all: I'll try and dig into comparison points when I have time. Doubt that will be tomorow. Then again I see no rush given deadline of next friday.

[shannon]

okay YA.
look at where I talk about posts 755 and 786 in my post.
basically why the hell would he turn away from his number 1 scum?? he said he didnt think that would happen.... like I don't buy it.
I said I never dropped my thing on UTL because I was convinced she was scum. It wasn't a popular idea at the time and I still pushed because it is what I believed.
he just dropped it- again I don't buy it.
also smith recently has said some really good stuff- why switch to shannon? even though I don't strongly think right now she would be Irchers scumbuddy- I told smith I would look into it- I have not gone back yet to do so. but in my initial read of Ircher and the situation made me think it was Ircher and YA.
Again I think Icher or Egg is the key (leaning Ircher) is YA right about Egg? or going for easy mislynch (thor brought this up once about the easy mislynch I believe) This is why we all need Eggman to be posting more!!
but Irchers actions dont make sense and If people look back at my post you will my thoughts more clearly on it. why didnt he push people away from the Radja case if he was so sure??
so many questions.....

I am catching up and going through posts one by one and responding, so apologies if this already played out!

I am not sure why Ircher put his vote on to me. If he really thinks I'm scum, he has not done enough to prove it. I think the initial case against me was basically that Thor and I both replaced in at the same time, and then interacted with each other in an aggressive way. I don't know whether his view of this changes now that Thor is confirmed town who read me as slight town. I still don't fully understand Thor's motives and I guess when the game is over we can ask him.

I personally would find it helpful for Ircher to claim a role. If he claims a PR that will help us to work out whether his case against me is factual.

[SummerInWonderland]

@shannon I had some questions for you in my post a while ago could you get to those too?

[shannon]

I have not put as much effort into this game (much like Newbie 1682), yet my meta will clearly show that this behavior is rather typical of me. I am being sincere in my posts.

Ummm, what? You defended the amount off effort you have made back at 543.

543 "Also, are you accusing me of not having an opinion this game? I would like to see what you are calling "zero content" from me."

[shannon]

Also, @YA
Here's the good part about this exchange even if I get lynched:

Town can still analyze it and see why people were on the wagon, why people were off, and determine motives for player's stances. Which is exactly what Mhsmith has done in regards to the Radja lynch and me. I just am simply requesting that mhsmith gets to know my playstyle better that way we're on the same page & mhsmith understands that there may be town motive behind my actions. Aka, I'm not using meta as a pure defense even if it seems like it, I am simply bringing it up so people do not guage me wrong and mislynch me simply cuz they don't understand how I play. Basically, you have to have a fpundation or basic guidelines to base your read on, and in my opinion, meta fulfils this purpose.

Takes from this convo:

Mhsmith0 is very likely town. He has seen a problem in what I've done and is addressing is. He is in addition willing to look at what I say rather than simply disregard everything I say as scum creating WIFOM.

YA's defense of me makes him likely towm. While he could be trying to buddy me, that would really look bad on him later if I were mislynched as my defense tbh is not spectacular (but do note that it is plausible & reasonable). It isn't just a random townread/not scum read either. He has given his jystification for what he has said, and is willing to argue it, even if he is wrong.

I am interested in @Kaag and @Shannon's take. I would like @Egg opinion too.

I actually don't know which way to go on this. I am not sure about you Ircher but I don't want to join the wrong bandwagon. I have done that a few times on D1 so I am trying to be more reserved in my judgments.

I think KAAG asked you to either defend yourself, provide a plausible alternative scum candidate, or declare your role. I don't think your defenses are all that strong, so I'd like to see one of the other two happen. I don't think leaving it open (could be Egg, could be me, don't know) is very helpful to you. You need to commit and really push a plausible case, even if that case is on me.

[shannon]

So relevant vote counts are:

Eggman (2): YawningAngel and Ircher
Ircher (2): Eggman and SummerInWonderland
Not voting: mhsmith0, KickAssAndGiggle, shannon

Presuming that mhsmith isn't going to change his mind, we need KAAG and shannon to pile in on Eggman to avoid a mislynch. I don't think there's much risk of a quickhammer, but I guess it never hurts to be sure.

A lot of my thinking at the moment is around the possibility of going in to LYLO with Egg. If he's town but not around to vote on D3, do we have any chance of getting the right lynch? (That's not a rhetorical question, I'm asking for someone with a better understanding of the game mechanics to explain).

Let's play today as though I have got on the Egg wagon and he's gone. Who is his partner?

[shannon]

@shannon I had some questions for you in my post a while ago could you get to those too?

Do you mean 758 when you asked me for details of my vote on KAAG?

Spoiler:

"@shannon okay so you voted KAGG. I think as a player you might be looking for the big bad scum in the widely read town slots (you did that with me and KAGG) I am not saying this is a bad thing! keep your eyes open all the time! but just a thought make sure because you see scum motive not because you think you are missing something and questioning for small reasons. This is just my thoughts! also my first game so you dont have to take my advice but I am throwing it out there any ways :p also why voting KAGG? please explain in more detail!"

At 715 I gave this explanation:

Spoiler:

Obviously I know I'm town, and I think Ircher is, so I want you to consider whether there's a scenario in which it makes sense for any of us (me+ YA, me+ Ircher, YA + Ircher) to be a scum team. I would argue that there's no case to be found, I think we should look at whether KAAG is scum himself.

I think KAAG is a skilful enough player to buddy someone obv-town without us noticing, and it's possible he's done that with Summer. I think his decision to make an authoritative sounding post attributing YA's hammer to a mistake could be a way of getting us to direct the next lynch to a target he considers harder. *And* I think that his taking control of the scum hunt now is a good way for him to direct it, if he himself is scum.

We went back and forth a little bit and it eventually resolved at 768 when I realised I had been making Aspie reads AKA 'looking for the big bad scum' as you put it. So now I am trying to jump to fewer conclusions and to take more stock of the simple explanations rather than imagining complex scenarios. But I should point out that KAAG just won a game as scum, so my assessment of him might not be far from the mark after all...

If you're asking why I

thought

Ircher was town among the more experienced players remaining, it stemmed from me misunderstanding one part of a game mechanic. I can't say more at this point, but I will later if I'm called to by a coalition of strong townies. Suffice to say I am less certain of Ircher's towniness now that I have seen his most recent posts.

[SummerInWonderland]

I just wanted a more in-depth read list from you! you posted on earlier. My one post I ask about it .

[shannon]

I just wanted a more in-depth read list from you! you posted on earlier. My one post I ask about it .

Oh! Right! Sorry, I somehow missed that. Based on my 'everything I know is wrong, let's put the candidates in reverse order', my previous list was

Townier

Kaag
Egg
YA
Summer
Ircher
MH

Scummier

To be serious (and not reverse order the list), I think that you, MH, and KAAG are pretty towny. You've all been consistent about scum hunting, you've stuck to your guns, and you challenge others to do the same. I want to leave open the possibility that one of these guys is doing an excellent job of steering the town in the wrong direction ... but I have absolutely 0 proof, so if I'm taking things at face value and not going out on theories 'catching big bad scum' I have to call this crew town.

I am suspicious about Egg's lack of posting, and his timing in coming back to the game. I don't buy the excuse that Egg thought Thor had hammered him. One of my suspicions is that Egg is the one who did the NK. Since no-one thought he was actively 'in the game' (he hadn't posted for a while), we would be suspecting (and therefore policing or tracking or blocking) a more active player, who would be shown to have done nothing at night. I am waiting to see what MH or KAAG thinks about taking him in to LYLO. If he's going to be offline and not around for the the votes, this seems to me as bad as being scum, because we can't lynch effectively (unless scum votes for a town lynch) and we then get picked off via night kills. Is this the case, or have I misunderstood?

I initially leaned Town on Ircher, but I think that the last night's posts (I mean 12 hours ago, not 'game night') about him have potentially uncovered some insincerity. I find the 'I haven't put in as much effort' excuse (828 to be really off putting. In what way is it pro-town to not put in as much effort as you can? Fair enough if you say, 'real life got unexpectedly crazy and I don't have time to post'. But why post reads that aren't fleshed out? Why not give all the evidence you've got? The thinking is the hard part, writing is relatively easy - so why not take five more minutes to make a good case?

Also, what are people's thoughts on this quote by Ircher at 838 "I infer metas fyi and I'm usually pretty good at it. But, some people have to do the meta dives & I'm sure I'm a bit of a wildcard that would neccessitate it."

AFAIK (and correct me if I'm wrong) the whole point of checking someone's meta is to see whether they're playing the same way currently as they have in past. Any inference about past play, based on the current game, is not so much an inference as a guess. You're effectively saying, 'Oh, I see you doing X here. I think you do X in all town games', without checking the evidence.

That leaves YA, who I am really really conflicted about. IDK whether the hammer was an accident or not, but either way, it was a pretty scummy thing to do. I think it's slightly convenient that Ircher is now convinced of YA's innocence. I am leaning toward an Ircher + (YA or Egg) team, but I can't tell which.

I have been wildly wrong before, so I am trying to be conservative in my judgments here. I am pretty confident in my town reads of Summer, MHSmith, and KAAG. If I am right about the potential implications of taking Egg to LYLO, I think it makes sense to get rid of him sooner - unless we can find another, scummier looking candidate between Ircher and YA. I need more info. I'm not voting for anyone right now.

(Aside: If come Thursday evening my time there's a N-1 wagon and I want to be on it, I will ask someone else to step off so I can register a vote. I'm potentially going to be offline from Thursday night - Saturday arvo because of flights and stopovers, and I don't want to hold up the game by being the vote missing from the wagon, nor by ending discussion prematurely by hammering. It's possible that I'll find airport wifi and log on, but I can't guarantee it).

[KickAssAndGiggle]

When I left this thread, I was torn between YA and Eggman.

My pool of 5:

{SIW, shannon, Ircher, YA, Eggman}

had gone to 3:

SIW drops out because I still feel she is very towny, despite reconsidering after the flips
shannon dropped out because my gut says she is towny. I wish I could articulate on shannon...but it really is just gut.

Which left me 3, and my thoughts were that both YA + Eggman were more likely than Ircher. I was almost certainly going to vote Eggman today, until I saw mhsmith and SIW on Ircher.

So before I even ask "does the Ircher case have legs?", my lynch-pool for today was {Ircher, YA, Eggman}. While looking for associates pre-flip rarely works, I strongly doubt an Eggman/YA team (not because they're both newcomers but becase YA has attacked Eggman consistently)

So POE gives me a prima-facie reason to say maybe. So let's look.

...

"5. Or, how about 1) The Egg lynch basically died cuz of Thor 2) Deadline was quickly approaching and I didn't have a lot to say about Shannon that would make a good case 3) I was 99% certain Radja/Utl was town. So, basically, I wouldn't conclude anything except I absolutely did not support the Radja wagon. Yes, I saw him as scum. But no, I no longer saw him as D1 lynch because of Thor's fake hammer."

Is an an absolute atrocity of a defense, and now I have to dig into if you're a VI or just flagrantly bs'ing. If we were in a non hammer board, my vote would be on you right now. As it is, you need to work HARD to avoid being d2 lynch.

Ps if you were certain utl/rad was town WHY THE HELL didn't you fight hard against it? WHY THE HELL didn't you fight for the egg lynch?

Ircher said on D1:

Eh, the UTL case is decent, but I also see a lot of conf. bias in the case which significantly weakens it. I'd rather anakyze that nextt day phase.

I've read the Utl case and it primarily consists of SJW/Utl, but there is evid. of Conf. Bias in the case, which weakens it s value. I prefer an Egg lynch, or even possubly a Thor lynch.

He did indeed say that he preferred Eggman, but it is obviously hard to accept the 99% value on the UTL/Radja scenario, given the first quote. A "decent" case is not 99% likely to be wrong.

...

Why did Ircher move from Eggman to shannon on D1:

I just quoted a case on Scum Egg yet you ignore it........
VOTE: Shannon

Thor's slight townread and your entrances make me suspicious of both of you.

Chief suspects right now are Shannon and Thor.

The Thor case - Fake lolhammer, suspicious predecessor (which I summed up earlier), Association with Shannon, and trying to find scum motivation in a reaction to a fake lolhammer.

Shannon - Association with Thor, misrepping me in order to try to get me mislynched

Associations pre-flip...Ircher should know better. Misrepping by a Newbie? Not a strong case. I wll quote two opinions on this vote from D1:

I just quoted a case on Scum Egg yet you ignore it........
VOTE: Shannon

Thor's slight townread and your entrances make me suspicious of both of you.

That makes no sense on multiple levels.

@Ircher I am pretty sure my UTL/Radja case is better than both of those
Shannon and thor are not on scum radar right now. A lot about shannons post I dont like- especially her case against me but that just seems extremely mislead.

I agree with Thor/SIW.

...

There is discussion of meta, and some discussion of whether checking his meta is "worth it" when he has no scum games.

The answer, for me, is Yes. You can use it to establish whether he is being "different" here to how he was in a town game.

What it will do is rule out scum-tells that aren't there, but it won't establish his aligment. For what it's worth, I suspect this is how Ircher plays, and I'm not thinking either the general tone of his posts or effort he's putting forth is alignment indicative.

...

YA has defended Ircher. Ircher had this to say on that:

YA's defense of me makes him likely towm. While he could be trying to buddy me, that would really look bad on him later if I were mislynched as my defense tbh is not spectacular (but do note that it is plausible & reasonable). It isn't just a random townread/not scum read either. He has given his jystification for what he has said, and is willing to argue it, even if he is wrong.

I am interested in @Kaag and @Shannon's take. I would like @Egg opinion too.

First, YA defending you like this would be suicide if you're the scum team. At least one of you is probably town.

But my problem is this: while looking for associates pre-flip is tough...do you see an Eggman/YA team?

I suppose you have an advantage as shannon is in your lynch-pool...but she's not in mine, it's {Ircher, YA, Eggman}. And there is my issue: you feature in both likely combinations:

On D1, you moved off Eggman
I appreciate you are voting him now, but at this stage, I'd be bussing him if I were scum too.
YA has been on Eggman consistently, you flip-flopped to Thor/shannon

...

Last point: my "dead" towny theory.

Radja had Thor as his top scum-read. This was wrong. He also had shannon second place scum. I don't agree with that either.

Thor had YA + Ircher, and by the end, preferred Ircher:

I am voting Radja because I don't scumread Yawning Angels as much and, for some weird reason, there is zero support for the idea of lynching Ircher.

(Thor's last read before hammer dropped)

The question is, was Thor's read credible? It was based on his perception of Ircher's response to the "Fake!hammer" being faked anger. When Ircher said it was real, Thor disagreed.

At the time, I was ambivalent: I can't tell if it was fake or real.

My suggestion is that anyone who wants Ircher, goes back and reads post 538 and the 20 - 30 posts following it. If you conclude his anger was faked, you probably have an extra reason, if it WASN'T faked, Ircher gains credibility. Me? Unsure.

...

Conclusion: case is present but only medium strength. A lot of my thoughts are colored somewhat by POE.

However, I do note the fact that Ircher and YA are both voting Eggman. So 2 of my scum bracket are voting the third.

I think either of them could be bussing him...

Making a case on Eggman is tricky: lurking, read list but does not want to vote "most scummy" on the list...what else is there? I've seen scum play like this but it's hard to form a case. Problem is the LYLO situation if we don't get rid.

YA...I thought he was fence!town on D1...it's only really the quick-hammer that hurt it, and if it was really a misunderstanding, it shouldn't really hurt my read.

I would probably vote Ircher, if mhsmith0, SIW and shannon all agree.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

(If I missed key evidence/arguments, let me know, sorry I couldn't keep up with the flow yesterday)

[YawningAngel]

I don't think your scum bracket can possibly be both sparse and complete. Neither YawningAngel + Ircher nor YawningAngel + Eggman is a plausible scum team, as you note. I don't think Ircher is definitely innocent but I think you're overlooking the cases that could be argued against you, shannon, and SIW. Hell, you're also ignoring potential scum comps of YA + KAAG/shannon/SIW, even if I don't think you should find any of those compelling.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Um, that post is full of "hmmm..."

1) Why would I have myself in my scum-bracket? At any time I can go into my messages, look at my PM and check the color. The rest of you can have me in your brackets, but I can't (unless I'm color-blind or mad...I'm neither!)

2) Regarding the "saner" choices of SIW + shannon:

My pool of 5:

{SIW, shannon, Ircher, YA, Eggman}

had gone to 3:

SIW drops out because I still feel she is very towny, despite reconsidering after the flips
shannon dropped out because my gut says she is towny. I wish I could articulate on shannon...but it really is just gut.

If I'm wrong, make the case, don't tell ME to make the case! If you think you HAVE made a case, point me to it.

3) Once you make a case on SIW/shannon, I'll consider YA/shannon, YA/SIW. Of course, whether I pick the one you WANT me to is up for question...

It's a three line, one paragraph post...and yet I feel my voting finger getting itchy. I need to think about your motivation for a bit.

[YawningAngel]

I

want

you to lynch Eggman, I'm just noting that you seem to be arbitrarily narrowing the pool so you can bump Ircher off.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Arbitrarily? OK, so who am I wrong about? Which town-read of mine should actually be in the lynch-pool?

shannon?

[YawningAngel]

Both shannon and SIW, to my mind.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

If your lynch pool is "everyone but mhsmith0", how on earth do you think you'll make a credible case on someone?

Or are you so convinced by Ircher that he's not in your lynch pool too?

[Eggman]

On another note: hey Smith, have you been sufficiently convinced by Ircher?

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Eggman,

Are you still happy with your vote on Ircher? Or is YA scummier? If you think he is, don't think he can't be lynched, vote him instead.

Do you think shannon is suspicious? What about SIW? Or me?

[YawningAngel]

If your lynch pool is "everyone but mhsmith0", how on earth do you think you'll make a credible case on someone?

I've already made a credible case on someone. I'm fine with being equivocal about who the other scum is for now, because I just don't know with any degree of certainty. I have other means of analysis at my disposal if they're warranted and I hope to learn more in the process of popping my first target.

[shannon]

If your lynch pool is "everyone but mhsmith0", how on earth do you think you'll make a credible case on someone?

I've already made a credible case on someone. I'm fine with being equivocal about who the other scum is for now, because I just don't know with any degree of certainty. I have other means of analysis at my disposal if they're warranted and I hope to learn more in the process of popping my first target.

YA you have other means of analysis, and you're talking about popping a target. Are you claiming cop?

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Let me just check the Eggman case:

- He is lurking, barely posting
- When he does post, it's either 1 sentence, or three one line answers to questions
- Didn't post a read list until asked and it was essentially just the "common" positions
- The wagon was derailed on D1, by extension putting those on the UTL/Radja wagon in jeopardy

Correct?

PEdit: shannon, there's no answer he can give that isn't anti-town: if he is cop, he's dead tonight, if not, the pool of possibilities for scum to hit goes down. I didn't read it as a claim or even a crumb myself.

[shannon]

Hehe, I hear 'popping a target' and I image guns and cops lol. Too much TV watching for me apparently.

When you summarise it like that KAAG, Egg looks increasingly suspicious. Egg get back here and defend yourself, and provide some strong cases on others, or you're getting my vote.

[YawningAngel]

If your lynch pool is "everyone but mhsmith0", how on earth do you think you'll make a credible case on someone?

I've already made a credible case on someone. I'm fine with being equivocal about who the other scum is for now, because I just don't know with any degree of certainty. I have other means of analysis at my disposal if they're warranted and I hope to learn more in the process of popping my first target.

YA you have other means of analysis, and you're talking about popping a target. Are you claiming cop?

I do not ever answer questions of that nature.

[YawningAngel]

Let me just check the Eggman case:

- He is lurking, barely posting
- When he does post, it's either 1 sentence, or three one line answers to questions
- Didn't post a read list until asked and it was essentially just the "common" positions
- The wagon was derailed on D1, by extension putting those on the UTL/Radja wagon in jeopardy

Correct?

PEdit: shannon, there's no answer he can give that isn't anti-town: if he is cop, he's dead tonight, if not, the pool of possibilities for scum to hit goes down. I didn't read it as a claim or even a crumb myself.

Point four is indeed salient, points 2 and 3 are just restating the fact that he's lurking to my mind. I think lurking is sufficient justification for a lynch on its own.