Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[KickAssAndGiggle]

If there is

serious intent

to hammer, then there is less of an issue. I have to admit, I didn't read it as such:

PPS I'm sufficiently nervous about ANOTHER quick hammer to not make the vote official, but I'm feeling pretty strong here. There are two votes on Ircher, and my "vote" on Ircher.

If we have a fourth, then it's time for Ircher to role claim or die.

"Role claim or die". That's not intent to hammer. Intent to hammer = role claim something helpful to town or die. There's no surviving Intent To Hammer other than claiming a PR and not getting countered. If he claims VT and you back off...it just helps scum.

Even with a serious intent, a significant issue here, nothing to do with Ircher or your case, is that the Eggman slot is sitting there, null as null can be (actually rather suspect)...it behooves us to be patient. IMHO.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

My view is:

Ircher should NOT claim

We keep the pressure on Ircher to defend the case.

We cajole Eggman to get involved, or we hope for a replacement.

We take our time.

I will support an Ircher lynch closer to the deadline, if nothing significant changes.

[Ircher]

I will respond once I finish catching up.

[mhsmith0]

Compromise position: Instead of 24 hours, Ircher has 48 hours to claim a role (and I suppose it doesn't hurt to clarify - VT doesn't immunize him) or to successfully defend himself. Given his attempts to defend his own slot so far, I don't think he can do the latter, so I'd suggest that Ircher focus his efforts on scum-hunting everyone else and building a better case. But ultimately Ircher needs to do what he thinks will be the most helpful to town. He has 48 hours to impress me or PR claim. Or my vote is on his slot, hammer or no.

[Ircher]

My view is:

Ircher should NOT claim

We keep the pressure on Ircher to defend the case.

We cajole Eggman to get involved, or we hope for a replacement.

We take our time.

I will support an Ircher lynch closer to the deadline, if nothing significant changes.

I agree with KAAG; I refuse to claim.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Ircher,

Hopefully your catch-up will address all this, but for me, I'd like to know:

1) Why was the case on UTL/Radja "decent" on D1, but then he was 99% town on D2?

5. Or, how about 1) The Egg lynch basically died cuz of Thor 2) Deadline was quickly approaching and I didn't have a lot to say about Shannon that would make a good case 3)

I was 99% certain Radja/Utl was town.

So, basically, I wouldn't conclude anything except I absolutely did not support the Radja wagon. Yes, I saw him as scum. But no, I no longer saw him as D1 lynch because of Thor's fake hammer.

2) You said to mhsmith0 that you left the wagon because Thor derailed it, but then correct yourself and accept that going from L-1 to L-2 was in fact you. You then defended your switch to Thor/shannon with:

This is a fair point. Okay, so a bit of an expansion on my switch to Shannon : 1) I already thought the wagon was derailed by Thor (yes, tech I did kill it) 2) Shannon's replace in struck me as scummy 3) I was being lazy and didn't feel like making cases. I'm better at reading town and PoEing scum

Can you understand why it looks scummy? In fairness, anyone can defend themselves with "lazy"...

3) Do you feel Thor dying on N1 looks bad? Why do you think he was killed? Do you think, that by being lazy, you could seriously have lynched him today, with his post output?

4) Why did you make a lynch pool with your name in it? Isn't mislynching a confirmed townie bad for town?

PEdit:

OK mhsmith0, thank you. I agree. Ircher, please defend your slot and make a case on your preferred lynch in the timeframe. PEdit2: I think another 48 hours is the fair compromise, so at that point I will agree with mhsmith0.

Eggman

We're getting frantic here...please make your next post either a proper case on somebody, or a series of questions to help you form one. We can't even help you get better when you won't post.

[SummerInWonderland]

My view is:

Ircher should NOT claim

We keep the pressure on Ircher to defend the case.

We cajole Eggman to get involved, or we hope for a replacement.

We take our time.

I will support an Ircher lynch closer to the deadline, if nothing significant changes.

I think taking time is good- I am not opposed to a role claim a bit further throughout the day. We have the time- I think we should use more of it. This is mostly due to the Eggman slot. He really needs to participate.

[mhsmith0]

I'd be fine with seeing what Egg has to say. 48 hours is plenty of time to get such production going.

[mhsmith0]

One helpful thing that Ircher could do ASAP is provide us his current updated reads. Egg, our current counter-wagon, should do the same.

[mhsmith0]

btw KAAG, what's your current feeling on Ircher vs Egg? And does anyone else jump out at you as being someone who deserves a wagon on them at this point?

[Eggman]

(agh im sorry, this board moves super quickly and class is long)
Hey Ircher! Let me ask you some questions.
1. At post 755, you call Thor's townread of Shannon "mysterious". What was your opinion of Shannon at the time?
2. Post 785. Ryu did not get replaced "several" times, it was him then me. Was this an appeal to emotion of some sort, and if so, why? Is it just to throw some extra shade at me because I swear I have enough
3. You haven't been putting in effort? I don't think that's a very good thing to admit, and I'm pretty sure you should not use "my meta tho" as a defense.
4. Your big defense to Smith is that you're being sincere. But, uh, that's the perils of online Mafia. How do we know this? Can we trust you?

@KAAG: what is a "proper case", and can you point me to an example of one in this thread?

@Smith:

Townies: Smith, KAAG, Me

Neutral: SiW, Shannon

I think these would be good lynches: Me, YA, Ircher

[KickAssAndGiggle]

The Ircher case is stronger than the Eggman case.

I asked YA about his Eggman case, and, I quote:

Let me just check the Eggman case:

- He is lurking, barely posting
- When he does post, it's either 1 sentence, or three one line answers to questions
- Didn't post a read list until asked and it was essentially just the "common" positions
- The wagon was derailed on D1, by extension putting those on the UTL/Radja wagon in jeopardy

Correct?

PEdit: shannon, there's no answer he can give that isn't anti-town: if he is cop, he's dead tonight, if not, the pool of possibilities for scum to hit goes down. I didn't read it as a claim or even a crumb myself.

Point four is indeed salient, points 2 and 3 are just restating the fact that he's lurking to my mind. I think lurking is sufficient justification for a lynch on its own.

OK, well I'm not totally sure that 1, 2, 3 are synonyms but it's your case:

1) He is lurking, barely posting
2) The wagon was derailed on D1, by extension putting those on the UTL/Radja wagon in jeopardy

So that's the case?

So on D1, when point 2 did not exist, your case was?

1) He is lurking.

So your case is essentially a policy lynch, right?

(I wish he hadn't just posted a one sentence post on the last page: typing this has taken me 4 minutes, counting getting the quote...

Eggman, you can't find 4 minutes?

)

I don't believe YA disputes that is his case. (Correct me YA if wrong).

Now, I will policy lynch a lurker if I have to, but it's never a strong case.

PEdit: hi Eggman,

mhsmith0 has made a "proper" case on Ircher:

Post 760 part one
Post 798 part two
Some extras on page 33 of the thread

We don't need that length, but ideally some points that refer back to behaviors or motivations.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Your post Eggman, is a good start. But you should not be in your own lynch pool: you are confirmed town to you, right? Why should we lynch a confirmed town?

I like the questions to Ircher.

[Ircher]

Spoiler: The Case Against Lurkers aka Why mhsmith should not be advocating my lynch in the following 48 hours and why Eggman is probable scum

Which quite frankly, I don't think anyone should be lynching me until we sort Eggman.

Cuz, while YA and I may be advocating a "PL" on Egg; it isn't quite as radical as some of you people believe.

1. Scum have a reason to lurk & not say anything at all.
2. Scum have a reason not to put effort into scumhunting
3. Newbie scum replace outs is higher than town replace outs. Daytalk has helped here. With that said, Shannon and Egg have a higher chance of being scum: 1) Shannon's slot has been replaced twice (bad sign) 2) Egg's slot has been replaced onced but this "Egg" I'm seeing resembles almost exactly the "Njac" I saw from Newbie 1666 who was scum.
4. Egg is obviously trying to stay out of this mess. If he were town, I would imagine he would actually offer his opinion on this matter in a post that is longer than 1 line. He has yet to do so: he continues to lurk and avoid participating in behaviors that benefit town.
5. In addition, since he is the counterwagon to me, by stating out of the way, more attention and focus will be directed towards me and less will be directed to him.
6. I am 0-2 currently against a certain player who practically always lurks (as his meta); in addition, every game I've lost except the micro had at least 1 scum that lurked a lot. People should not just dismiss lurking as demonstrated here as non-alignment indicative. People should question lurkers and pay more attention to them; this is how lurkers win:

1) Lurker posts a few posts here and there
2) A townie notices this lurking and tries to get town to pay more attention to the lurker/try to get the lurker involved
3) Town ignores the townie, under the premise that lurking is not neccessarily alignment indicative
4) Someone accuses townie of seeking low hanging fruit and claims that as a result, that player is active lurking (which is considered worse than lurking)
5) When townie is forced to make a case against lurker that excludes lurking, the case is impossibile to make due to the very low number of posts by the lurker
6) Townie ends up being mislynched.
7) Lurker is never mislynched as no one questions their lack of substance (and if they do, that person is lynched) and no one can construct a case against them cuz there is nothing to piece together a case with.

Now, I'm not saying Egg cannot be town, but with this level of lurking & low content, it is very likely Egg is scum and if we, as town, do not force lurkers to participate, we will lose to them every single game. If the lurker is truly town, the lurker will begin to actually put some effort into looking town, finding scum, and playing the game. A great example of a redeemed townie is Broo from Newbie 1682 - Got scumread fairly early on, ended up lurking cuz of pressure & cuz he felt the situation was hopeless, town convince him to post more, town sees an evident change in the newbie's perspective and town wins.

Don't be fools and just let lurkers get away with stuff, force them to participate; threatening to lynch them (and I mean a real threat) will offer incentive to participate. We, as town, need to take a stance against lurkers. Simply asking them to participate won't make them participate, we must force them to participate. Not all lurkers are scum, but that doesn't mean we should ignore them completely.

If town is so ignorant as to ignore this call to action, then go right ahead and lynch me. But, if town wants to win, they will greatly consider what I said even if it doesn't change their scumread on me.

[YawningAngel]

I think these would be good lynches: Me, YA, Ircher

I'm confused. Do you think your scumbuddy is going to get town cred for bussing you? Did you roofie the mods and hypnotize them to make you a jester?

you do not ever want to be lynched

[YawningAngel]

@Ircher there is nothing remotely radical about policy lynches, that's why they're called 'policy' lynches and not 'I'm going to do this just because since I'm crazy' lynches

[Ircher]

(agh im sorry, this board moves super quickly and class is long)
Hey Ircher! Let me ask you some questions.
1. At post 755, you call Thor's townread of Shannon "mysterious". What was your opinion of Shannon at the time?

Gut stating Shannon was scum; the unexplained townread of Shannon by Thor just exacerbate it.

2. Post 785. Ryu did not get replaced "several" times, it was him then me. Was this an appeal to emotion of some sort, and if so, why? Is it just to throw some extra shade at me because I swear I have enough

I explain this in my one of my latest posts. Please read it, albeit I did not address this earlier.

3. You haven't been putting in effort? I don't think that's a very good thing to admit, and I'm pretty sure you should not use "my meta tho" as a defense.

You have put in 1% effort this entire game. I really don't think you should be commenting on that. As far as meta goes, I was emphasizing the importance of reading a person based on their play rather than by a "one size fits all" standard. Yes, it was a defense, but you missed the entire point of it.

4. Your big defense to Smith is that you're being sincere. But, uh, that's the perils of online Mafia. How do we know this? Can we trust you?

Simply AtE. Aka, I had no way of proving that, BUT I was not lying when I said that either. It was also some kind of joke btw.

@KAAG: what is a "proper case", and can you point me to an example of one in this thread?

@Smith:

Townies: Smith, KAAG, Me

Neutral: SiW, Shannon

I think these would be good lynches: Me, YA, Ircher

I want to see more posts like this, but I also want you address more than what is asked. Give better opiinions on smith, KAAG, SIW, Shannon, and YA too,

[Ircher]

@Ircher there is nothing remotely radical about policy lynches, that's why they're called 'policy' lynches and not 'I'm going to do this just because since I'm crazy' lynches

You say that, yet have you looked at what mhsmith, Shannon, and KAAG has thought so far as to PLing Egg? One can exaggerate; exaggeration is not a scum tell.

[YawningAngel]

The fact that mhsmith, Shannon, and KAAG underrate policy lynches is not a persuasive argument so far as I'm concerned.

[Ircher]

Your post Eggman, is a good start. But you should not be in your own lynch pool: you are confirmed town to you, right? Why should we lynch a confirmed town?

I like the questions to Ircher.

Have you ever considered actual logical reasons why he may do that?

Including yourself in a lynchpool is not a scumtell. Claiming mafia is not a scumtell. Self voting is not really a scumtell, but it is frowned upon. See the pattern?

[Ircher]

The fact that mhsmith, Shannon, and KAAG underrate policy lynches is not a persuasive argument so far as I'm concerned.

Also, lynching lurkers imo is

not

policy lynching as I outlined in the spoiler.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

The fact that mhsmith, Shannon, and KAAG underrate policy lynches is not a persuasive argument so far as I'm concerned.

Now, I will policy lynch a lurker if I have to, but it's never a strong case.

Ask me again if no improvement in 4 days: I'd rather give him a chance to get involved.

Your post Eggman, is a good start. But you should not be in your own lynch pool: you are confirmed town to you, right? Why should we lynch a confirmed town?

I like the questions to Ircher.

Have you ever considered actual logical reasons why he may do that?

Including yourself in a lynchpool is not a scumtell. Claiming mafia is not a scumtell. Self voting is not really a scumtell, but it is frowned upon. See the pattern?

In Eggman's case, I'd say I'm 99% certain the answer is inexperience. I am simply trying to help him, I made no comment on his motivation.

[YawningAngel]

I mean, you're outlining why it's a good policy, certainly.

Incidentally, I don't object to people acknowledging that there appear to be good reasons for others to want to lynch them. I just think they should dispute those reasons

[Ircher]

Spoiler: Quote Wall

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher  (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)
Mhsmith (95%) - A lot of this gets covered in my notes. The thing that really makes me townread Mhsmith though is when he finally realizes what KAAG was meaning to say. He couldn't see it past his tunnel.
KAAG (93%) - Nice early game & is engaged and trying to solve the game.
Summer (92%) - I see Summer doing lots of stuff that either a) I've done myself or b) Are common things newbies do. This is more than just a newbtown read though, I see a willingness to help out and to scumhunt.

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
Aeronaut (65%) - The lurking has really dropped my confidence in this read. Overall, you seem to be scumhunting, so I'll lean town for now.
UTL (75%) - Tbh, a bit mixed here, but gut says Utl is town.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Yawn (-40%) - I really want to say this slot is town like Summer, but I don't see the same level of commitment as I do from Summer.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
Green (-75%) - Has yet to post; I am very suspicious of a slot that replaces out multiple times. (Njac of Newbie 1666)

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)
Egg (-90%) - This slot has not been useful at all. I've seen zero scumhunting here and I don't understand why people are townreading this slot.

While scum could certainly be among the active (Summer, UTL, KAAG, mhsmith); I believe there's w high prob. of one of the lurkers to be scum (Egg, Green). Then, my slot & Yawn & Aero are kinda rpthe so-so activity. Out of all the lurkers, Egg's slot sticks out as the slot putting the least effort in this game. All of the posts the slot have posted (very few btw) have been defensive. Moreso, I don't see any evidence of scumhunting from the slot, unlike Yawn. Aatami/Green is a wildcard sloy imho.

You know, I've known about the ISO button for quite some time now, but I didn't know you could do combined ISOs. That might be something the IC should consider mentioning in future games, as it looks like a pretty useful tool.

Something seems off about Aero, not quite sure what.....

1.

You know what I find interesting? It's the fact that Aero never answered his own questions in 22.

2. In 29, Aero votes KAAG for the too townie argument -

Speculation -- Pins it on a gut read. Kinda seems like an overreaction; those answers seem sensible from any town player, esp. an experienced one. I'm not pushing associatives here, but you think this is genuine town Aero or scum Aero trying to subtlely misdirect us?

3. 40 - Aero says a post of KAAG's reads as newbie; since KAAG is an SE, sends out red flags -

Even with the combined ISO, I have no clue what you are referring to. All of KAAG's posts read as someone with experience to me imho.

4. Aero votes Yawn in 63 -

I just... don't get the right sort of feel here. The case at first looks decent, but if you look deeper, did Yawning really do something scum would do? The point about pessimistic attitude really doesn't hold up well and the fact Aero paints it as scummy as can be kinda seems strange. I play as I always do, yet I always expect a slightly larger margin of error with newbies because they don't have the on-site experience to guage the proper way of doing stuff.

5. KAAG states he sees town motive in Aero's posts -

I don't know... I'm starting to doubt that view. One thing to keep in mind is that a scum IC is unlikely to make the typical newbie scum mistakes & def. will be hard to catch. While in some ways, it may SEEM town-motivated; I'm starting to get the feeling this a scum IC who is involving town as part of his role as IC.

6.

Anyone else have the feeling that Aero is playing to a scum win con while fulfilling his role as IC? That's what I'm seeing. It may also partially explain why he's been prodded twice (busy ofc being the other half)

No real associations I see with KAAG, but nonetheless, Aero's slot is starting to read suspicious.

I think UTL is scum at this point- everything she has said with our conversation points to that.
I hope everything ends up being ok with her
I am going to look at Yawing now- this entire game I have had a hard time reading him so I am going to try to come up with something concrete.
as for Ryu I said my thoughts in my read. I wouldn't want him gone day one I don't think just because lack of info and his posts did not point me at scum. Eggman yet decided on- not enough info.
I am pretty sure Aeronaut asked me why I saw aatami as leaning town so I will find the posts that I liked.
Sorry for not posting too much lately- I have been swarmed with essays. Finals suck aha

Hey Eggman
if you want to make some of your own judgments on UTL look at the conversation between me and her.
This is where I became convinced she is scum.
I will probably post a full thing to everyone else why I think this all in one post.
I have explained to her why I think that- you can read and see but I will type up something more to make it clearer.

I find it more TvT with conf bias on UTL side. I may be wrong though!

I was thinking about doing an UTL reread, but I'm satisfied with Radja's replace in to the extent that can wait.

As far as Radja's readlist looks, looks pretty good to me (and it does coincide pretty well with my thoughts. Except, my read of Aero has prob. changed since my readlist).

I think that when Radja stated something about Egg & a VT claim, he merely misworded or ambiguously worded that. If he was SURE Egg was a VT, then he would HAVE to be Mafia. Basically, one mustn't be too keen on the way things are worded; generally, it's the underlying motive that matters more (scum most likely wouldn't say that they KNOW a person is a VT and then proceed to try to lynch them).

Fyi, I'm supporting only an Egg or an Aero lynch today. The former because its rather scummy, the latter because it is *ahem* suspicious and would also be a good info lynch.

Skimming Ryu/Egg's ISO, I see the following things:

Ryu

- 1. Poor communicator 2. Did a semi-decent job; equates to a neutral read I guess....

Eggman

3. His opening post 224 is self-contadictory. Has Aero and Mhsmith on the same tier as himself for what basically equates to gut reads. (As his Aero read is based on Aero being an IV). If Egg flips scum, that would suggest an assoc. with Aero. Says KAAG puts in a lot of effort, yet leantown?! Compared to a gutread, I would think that a read based on effort is >= a gutread. The UTL read is also basically gut (same basis as IC being town), so his reads are not coinciding with what he says in that post. He also leaves SIW out. Prob. a newbie mistake/oversight, but still... SIW was one of the more active ones.
2. Askes about fakeclaiming cop - Newbie trying to breadcrumb cop role.... Unlikely, as he later as he later claims VT
3. Claims VT when things begin looking bad - Antitown, but not neccessarily scum motivated
4. Seems to be acting newbie -- Generally not a tell EXCEPT when you ask how many VTs there are despite it being stated in post 0 or 1 of all newbie games.
5. Jumps on Radja for ambiguous terminology- Shame on KAAG for seeing that as a scumslip in the first place, but perhaps opportunistic in nature? I'm not sure....

Overall, pretty confident scumread here.

I just quoted a case on Scum Egg yet you ignore it........
VOTE: Shannon

Thor's slight townread and your entrances make me suspicious of both of you.

Cuz I always read in chronological order & my responses are based off that.

Oh, absolutely you read in chronological order - I'm not suggesting anything else.
I'm just wondering why you didn't react to the realization that it wasn't a hammer - especially when you'd been so violent when you thought it was, weren't you relieved? Weren't you at least thinking I was less of an idiot? Anything?

Apparently not, since you didn't add anything else.

But, after the level of initial response, the lack of followup reads weird - and that's what makes it look fake to me.
Liek if I just punched someone for sleeping with my girlfriend, and then found out he hadn't I'd, y'know...react to that new info. If I didn't it would be weird.
Like what you did.

My "case" on Ryu/Egg - Somewhat ambiguous (may be bad town) but compared to everything else, it's pretty strong & would be if this wasn't a newbie.

Your case is literally full of you admitting that the issues aren't really scummy - even right now, you're admitting it might be a good case if not on a Newbie, but then, y'know, noting it's on a Newbie.
It's really unimpressive to me.

What's your read on Yawning Angel?
Wanna lynch him instead?

Yawn and Summer right now are prob. newbtown. I'm pretty sure the YA case is worse than my Egg case

Chief suspects right now are Shannon and Thor.

The Thor case - Fake lolhammer, suspicious predecessor (which I summed up earlier), Association with Shannon, and trying to find scum motivation in a reaction to a fake lolhammer.

Shannon - Association with Thor, misrepping me in order to try to get me mislynched

Eh, the UTL case is decent, but I also see a lot of conf. bias in the case which significantly weakens it. I'd rather anakyze that nextt day phase.

Eh, the UTL case is decent, but I also see a lot of conf. bias in the case which significantly weakens it. I'd rather anakyze that nextt day phase.

ok so you think it is a good case... but is weakened by some mysterious conf. bias.
please direct me to this because apparently there is a lot of it that you see.

This is something you learn through experience. Do you know what muscle memory is? It works the same way as muscle memory -- The more times you see stuff like that, the more likely you will be able to understand what's happening.

Anyway, conf. bias isn't one of those things you point out; you can tell by looking at how the players respond. In this case, UTL seemed overky focused on you and keen to point out the slightest errors you made. But, I have a good feeling that she truly thought you were scum and didn't realize she was tunneling you.

See, Egg ISN'T TRYING. YA IS.

See the difference? Same can be said for SIW.

I've read the Utl case and it primarily consists of SJW/Utl, but there is evid. of Conf. Bias in the case, which weakens it s value. I prefer an Egg lynch, or even possubly a Thor lynch.

If Radja is town, YA is guaranteed scum.
Radja scum meabs high possibility that ya is scum.

Final reads:

Town

msmith
KAAG
Ircher
Summer
Eggman
YawningAngel
Shannon
Thor

Scum

Yeah, that sums up my current stance though I'm kinda mixed with the bottom 3; all of them have done stuff that makes one extremely suspicious of them.

You don't seem like a guy who gets his kicks out of lying to noobs and your points made sense so I took you at your word. I considered waiting on a claim, but gaming it out in my head it didn't seem like anything he could say would make much of a difference. A VT claim doesn't disincentivize a lynch at all, and PR claims are just as attractive for scum as for actual town PRs (who are highly likely to die that night in many setups anyway).

I know you read my discussions about proper play Day 1 - no where in there did I remotely suggest a hammer without a claim was a good idea.
So...if you don't think I'd lie to the point of wanting to leap ahead with a shorter day, why did you overlook the, y'know, other thoughts I had about how to do it?

[line][/line]

As far as I know twilight seems to be dangerous for town.
I don't think we should be putting all of our thoughts out there because we will soon find out if Radja is scum or town.
Giving free information to scum is bad.
saying things like "if he is town I will think or if he is scum I will think" is just giving out free information with no gain to town as far as I can see.

I think scum will NK *either* some one who is consistently on the right track, or someone who is currently on the wrong track but who is a persuasive leader. (Because being a good leader would become dangerous to scum if that person ever gets the *right* idea in their heads). They'd be fools to pick someone wishy washy, who is neither right nor persuasive, because that person isn't hurting their chances so much.

I don't know whether there is a habit of scum thinking this way? (Experts can you chime in?) But if so, I'm worrying about NKs for people like KAAG, Msmith, Summer, and Thor. They're all either good reasoners, good leaders, or both. If we have any doctors or protective types in the game, these are the people I think need protection. Anyone else have an opinion?

Unless they believe summer is a pr, they arent nking summer. Thor prob. isn't being nked. I'm surprised hou left me off the list tho.

I just reviewed your ISO very quickly. I left you off the list because I don't think you're persuasive, and you don't stick with one target all that long. I've colour coded because I'm a visual person.

377 - Vote

Green (my slot)

but say

Egg is suss

390 -

Aero reading suss

392 -

Vote Aero

439 - R

adja's reads of others look right

443 - Supports lynch on

Egg

or

Aero

483 -

Votes Egg to L-1

538 - Angry at

Thor(new Aero)

for (faux) lolhammer on Egg
553 - Vote

Shannon

due to my interactions

with Thor

556 - Summer and YA both newbtown, so others' case for YA is not as good as his

own case for Egg

557 - Chief suspects

Shannon

and

Thor

559 -

UTL(Radja)

case has merit but hampered by confirmation bias
590 - Prefers

Egg (1)

or

Thor (2)

lynch over

UTL/Radja

*YA hammers Radja*

675 - If

Radja is town

,

YA is guaranteed scum

.

If Radja is scum

,

YA is still probably scum

Based on this, can you confirm whether your best suspects are currently YA, Egg, myself, or Thor?

I need to look at you closer. My initial read of you was... poorly evidenced, yet some of the things you did gave me poor vibes. The seemingly easy yet slight townread Thor gave you, who I was suspicious of, caused me to see a possible association between the two of you.

I had already done a review of Aero and had concluded that Aero was acting strange/suspicious but not neccessarily scummy, per se. When Thor came along with his fake lolhammer and then jumping on my reaction to it seemed off. I will need to investigate Thor a bit closer tbh. Overall, the read there was strengthened by Thor's entrance, but it's still not definitive yet.

At first, I was thinking YA was pretty much newbtown after considering whether or not I'd do the same things if this were my first game. The main thing that struck me as super scummy was the hammer: I gave a warning about hammering without intent. Thor proceeded to pretend to do the exact opposite as a reaction test, yet he knew he didn't actually hammer, so that's forgivable. KAAG proceeds to remind people not to hammer before giving ~24 hrs intent prior, esp. without a claim. And YA in less than 10 posts (I think) goes and just hammers Radja.

Considering the recent events, Egg is prob. now a neutral read leaning towards scum now as the case was fairly weak (albeit imo better than the YA case at the time). PoE is a strong tool for town and that's why this read changed.

Also, I rescind my earlier statement suggesting that Radja town = YA guaranteed scum.

Considering YA's defense, while the move was still very scummy and definitely poor (as town), I think that a lack of explaining why just hammering is poor is part of the reason why YA executed the hammer.

Therefore, a town Radja flip has a high probability of YA scum and a scum flip has a moderate chance of YA scum.

Some quotes I selected.....

[Ircher]

The fact that mhsmith, Shannon, and KAAG underrate policy lynches is not a persuasive argument so far as I'm concerned.

Now, I will policy lynch a lurker if I have to, but it's never a strong case.

Ask me again if no improvement in 4 days: I'd rather give him a chance to get involved.

Your post Eggman, is a good start. But you should not be in your own lynch pool: you are confirmed town to you, right? Why should we lynch a confirmed town?

I like the questions to Ircher.

Have you ever considered actual logical reasons why he may do that?

Including yourself in a lynchpool is not a scumtell. Claiming mafia is not a scumtell. Self voting is not really a scumtell, but it is frowned upon. See the pattern?

In Eggman's case, I'd say I'm 99% certain the answer is inexperience. I am simply trying to help him, I made no comment on his motivation.

In that case, don't be agreeing with mhsmith's quicklynch advocation on me and give Egg some time to post & help us decide his alignment. Aka, the exact reason why I posted that case/info.