Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[Eggman]

I haven't been very useful all game so I wouldn't be opposed to being lynched.
That said, I believe that Ircher would be the better lynch today, 'cuz scumhunting! If he is town, at least I tried!
I'll try to go into more detail and make a case later, because I have to do homework now.

[Ircher]

I haven't been very useful all game so I wouldn't be opposed to being lynched.
That said, I believe that Ircher would be the better lynch today, 'cuz scumhunting! If he is town, at least I tried!
I'll try to go into more detail and make a case later, because I have to do homework now.

Better be good.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

@Ircher:

I didn't...I made it clear I didn't support it at the speed it was going, but at the same time, I do think 48 hours is enough time to make a case/defend.

I will read your quote wall and see if it helps from my POV.

@Eggman:

Two schools of thought here Eggman:

"I haven't been useful, so even though I'm town, I don't oppose being lynched"

"I haven't been very useful, but as I'm town, I will work to not get lynched"

I'd prefer the second, please.

[Ircher]

The former sounds like Zombie from N1666, the latter sounds like Broo from N1682. Both of those players were town, but radical difference in how they were perceived in the end.

Ofc, there's option c: "I'm scum and am hoping I can avoid a lynch by AtE."

Not neccessarily saying either is the case.

@Kaag
I don't want you to even be thinking about lynching anyone until we have sorted Egg, okay? If Egg puts a lot of effort, 48 hrs may be reasonable in terms of lynching me. But, the crucial factor here is Egg; my lynch (if it occurs) can and should wait until Egg is sorted.

@Mhsmith0 - This esp. applies to you.

[SummerInWonderland]

okay a quick thought I had
so Eggman seems okay with being lynched!
if he is scum he has a scumbuddy- if he wants to help his buddy at all why would he say this? why would he just be okay with it? wouldn't his buddy encourage him to be active/not give up?
anyone have ideas on this?
I will try to be posting more tonight! (again I have been super super busy lately )

[mhsmith0]

@ircher: you also need to go on record on where you see the rest of the board and why. If I'm to give you 48 hours, when I think you're scum, you need to reciprocate with providing on record reads comments and interactions with everyone else.

[Ircher]

Are you implying I haven't, cuz if so, that's rather untrue. I'll provide a readlist soon tho.

[Ircher]

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher  (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)
KAAG (95%) - Fair, unbiased, open, and actively participating and being good town. (Vague, but basically it).
Mhsmith (88%) - Similar to KAAG, but I do have a qualm with the initial speed he was advocating my lynch for. Overall, working this game out.

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
SIW (80%) - Newb town; with Utl/Radja town, the TvT assoc. strengthens here.
YA (65%) - His defense of me seems natural and not opportunistic. His hammer yesterday seemed to be a newb mistake that is the result of misunderstanding how things work, making it null. More on his def: YA/Ircher was scumteam, then his defense of me would basically be suicide. If it was Egg/YA, he'd get called out for trying to bus Egg and would benefit more from trying to lynch me for the association becomes weaker. So, likely newbtown here who miswords some stuff, etc.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
Shannon (-63%) - PoE amongst other things. Gut says scum, though I haven't looked through the ISO.

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)
Egg(-82%) - I outline the reasons why in my "The case against lurkers...." spoilered post. Yes, its cuz of lurking, but lurking isn't policy material, it can be scum indicative, so pls don't discount this as an invalid reason.

[Ircher]

Anyway, my take is we get more out of Egg, then we discuss whether or not I'm being lynched. So, looking forward to Egg's case against me; I've done enough interacting for today.

[YawningAngel]

I've misworded stuff?

[mhsmith0]

Are you implying I haven't, cuz if so, that's rather untrue. I'll provide a readlist soon tho.

Iirc your prior one had been end d1 so I wanted an update. Apologies if I'd missed one in between.

[SummerInWonderland]

I've misworded stuff?

well you have said stuff that wasn't true about me twice

[shannon]

I haven't been very useful all game so I wouldn't be opposed to being lynched.
That said, I believe that Ircher would be the better lynch today, 'cuz scumhunting! If he is town, at least I tried!
I'll try to go into more detail and make a case later, because I have to do homework now.

Ummm, WHAT?! This is like, the least towny defence you could offer.

Let's consider the possibility that Egg is trying to get lynched because his partner already sees him as low-hanging fruit, and maybe the partner feels super secure in a town role?

[YawningAngel]

I've misworded stuff?

well you have said stuff that wasn't true about me twice

It would be frankly remarkable if I could accurately reference events in all 962 posts in this thread from memory The odd slip-up seems inevitable.

[YawningAngel]

I haven't been very useful all game so I wouldn't be opposed to being lynched.
That said, I believe that Ircher would be the better lynch today, 'cuz scumhunting! If he is town, at least I tried!
I'll try to go into more detail and make a case later, because I have to do homework now.

Ummm, WHAT?! This is like, the least towny defence you could offer.

Let's consider the possibility that Egg is trying to get lynched because his partner already sees him as low-hanging fruit, and maybe the partner feels super secure in a town role?

Why would he ever want to do that? Unless his buddy is Ircher (this violates your predicate, but whatevs) then it would surely be more efficient to do nothing and pray we mislynch Ircher?

[shannon]

That's just it, I think that inviting a lynch (for the good of the town, because he hasn't done much) could actually save Egg here. We are all asking for more posts so we can make a good decision, and if we don't get that, I think we might go Ircher anyway.

If we do go for egg and he is scum, mafia haven't lost much (since egg has not done much to pin suspicion on others, and his lynch seems inevitable). Ircher I think would still be a suspect, which works for scum if ircher is town.

Say for example Kaag is scum, a really towny looking player. he can watch egg self destruct, nk someone towny like mh, ircher would still be a good scum suspect D3, and failing that, YA. So although lynching a town would be better for an egg+ scum team this turn, egg's loss is not a huge deal if the other scum is a really towny looking player.

Note: I don't mean to say I suspect kaag, only that if egg is scum and his buddy is town looking, it's not a huge deal for scum if egg gets lynched

On mobile, sorry for typos and formatting

[shannon]

What happens if we get no lynch today?

[mhsmith0]

Well we're definitely not getting a lynch today, it's almost midnight

But we need a lynch D2. No lynching means that we'd very likely get stuck in MYLO (mislynch and lose) on D3. If we lynch we have a realistic chance to kill scum, if we wait and see then it'll definitely be a town who dies.

[mhsmith0]

FWIW, next item on my to do list: re-review the things UTL, Radja and Thor said. For the newbies: flipped players can be GREAT sources of information and ideas. You'll know exactly how sincere they were, which means that you can trust their sincerity of analysis and ideas more than you can trust anyone else's. That doesn't mean they're CORRECT, of course, but you know they're not lying (unless you're looking at flipped scum, in which case their posts become even more interesting and potentially useful for info).

[mhsmith0]

@Ircher: One clarifying question: that vote that I keep harping about: was "I just quoted a case on Scum Egg yet you ignore it........" directed at Shannon or Thor? First read I'd thought Shannon, but it seems like you were mainly talking to Thor around that point.

[shannon]

Well we're definitely not getting a lynch today, it's almost midnight

But we need a lynch D2. No lynching means that we'd very likely get stuck in MYLO (mislynch and lose) on D3. If we lynch we have a realistic chance to kill scum, if we wait and see then it'll definitely be a town who dies.

For you, maybe, it' s not even 3PM here! I need to start specifying 'today' IRL vs 'today' in mafia time.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

That's just it, I think that inviting a lynch (for the good of the town, because he hasn't done much) could actually save Egg here. We are all asking for more posts so we can make a good decision, and if we don't get that, I think we might go Ircher anyway.

If we do go for egg and he is scum, mafia haven't lost much (since egg has not done much to pin suspicion on others, and his lynch seems inevitable). Ircher I think would still be a suspect, which works for scum if ircher is town.

Say for example Kaag is scum, a really towny looking player. he can watch egg self destruct, nk someone towny like mh, ircher would still be a good scum suspect D3, and failing that, YA. So although lynching a town would be better for an egg+ scum team this turn, egg's loss is not a huge deal if the other scum is a really towny looking player.

Note: I don't mean to say I suspect kaag, only that if egg is scum and his buddy is town looking, it's not a huge deal for scum if egg gets lynched

On mobile, sorry for typos and formatting

I can see Eggman's partner bussing him, but I doubt that person would feel it is "not a huge deal". The repercussions for scum if we lynch town or scum today is still pretty big: the difference between winning with one further mislynch vs needing two mislynches. That's two sets of votes to get in, two night's to dodge investigation, two sets of arguments to make.

You stated that you would lend your vote to Ircher's lynch. Is he your preferred lynch, or would you prefer Eggman (assuming no further movement from either slot)?

[shannon]

@KAAG assuming no vote changes between slots, I would need to take further advice from the more experienced townies about which is the better play. My gut says that Egg is going to be useless going in to LYLO so we may as well lynch him now, but I worry that we won't get much useful information from doing so. (And you know, I can't tell whether he's lazy town or lazy scum, the slot claimed VT before, and I'd rather lynch scum over town, no matter how little the town is helping). I feel pretty good about Ircher being scum, but we need to give him an opportunity to defend himself properly. So honestly, I don't know.

[mhsmith0]

Shannon, I would say that you should vote for whoever you honestly believe is scum. Letting Egg hang around until LYLO is problematic in a lot of ways, but if you're convinced Ircher is scum (and that Egg is not), then you need to be voting Ircher. If you're pretty undecided (or think they're about equally likely to be scum) then you're probably better off going with the policy lynch of Egg.

I personally lean towards Egg being town who simply isn't doing a great job as opposed to this being an intentional scum strategy (and for the record, if he IS scum, and his scum buddy is either SE, and Egg was pushed into lurking as a scum strategy, I'm going to have words in the post-game with his partner, for what I think are obvious reasons).

At any rate, I DO think that Ircher is scum, and I think that he provided us with a solidly alignment-indicative moment with his D1 shannon vote. So that's where I am, barring a non CC'd role claim or a legitimately convincing defense of his own slot or a legitimately convincing attack of another slot. And there's less than 48 hours to go.

[Ircher]

@Ircher: One clarifying question: that vote that I keep harping about: was "I just quoted a case on Scum Egg yet you ignore it........" directed at Shannon or Thor? First read I'd thought Shannon, but it seems like you were mainly talking to Thor around that point.

Ok, that was a bit ambiguous, I had to double check myself

But, despite voting Shannon. that part of the post was directed to Thor. I specified very vaguely the reason why I voted Shannon after the vote.