Newbie 1691 - Game Over

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Post Post #975 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:04 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 972, shannon wrote:@KAAG assuming no vote changes between slots, I would need to take further advice from the more experienced townies about which is the better play. My gut says that Egg is going to be useless going in to LYLO so we may as well lynch him now, but I worry that we won't get much useful information from doing so. (And you know, I can't tell whether he's lazy town or lazy scum, the slot claimed VT before, and I'd rather lynch scum over town, no matter how little the town is helping). I feel pretty good about Ircher being scum, but we need to give him an opportunity to defend himself properly. So honestly, I don't know.

I would very much appreciate an expansion / elaboration on what you mean here, @Shannon.

Specifically, what is your Egg stance and why?

This suggests to me that you are trying to avoid lynching Egg, yet at the same time, you think Egg is a good lynch. I need to have a more definite stance; you cannot be two polar opposites at the same time (in contrast to a mixed stance which I'm not really seeing).

I'll clarify the problem in my next post.
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Post Post #976 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:16 am

Post by Ircher »

Shannon's Reasons for not Lynching Egg

1. Lack of useful info
2. Cannot tell if lazy scum or lazy town
3. He claimed VT earlier and you'd rather lynch scum over town (?)

Shannon's Reasons for Lynching Ircher

1. Egg reads as unhelpful town (?)
2. Gut (!)

Here's my problem: Shannon is being very vague in his stance and apparently, his gut read of me is enough to lynch me on (I know mhsmith has more elaborate reasons, but this is what I'm seeing from Shannon). It REALLY looks more like Shannon is trying to avoid getting heat from my lynch, and despite thinking that Egg would be problematic in LyLo, simply drops the scumread by lazy town and the VT claim. That's what really isn't making sense -- the fact Shannon is against lynching Egg cuz of the VT claim.

If a player claims VT, one should avoid automatically assuming that a player is town. Scum can just as easily claim VT as town, so the claim is only useful for scum who are pr hunting. Discussing timing is simply inviting players to base reads on WIFOM.


Maybe I'm being biased, but what I am basically seeing is that Shannon is using Egg's impromptu VT claim as a reason to not lynch Egg. And it also seems to me that Shannon has a decent scumread of me, yet he only specifies what amounts to gut in his post. And yet, Shannon is undecided on who to lynch.

I can
absolutely
see town motivation for what Shannon has done;
however
, with the way this thread is going and the total lack of benefit of the doubt, I see quite some scum motivation in the post. (And, I crossed out the town part cuz this thread doesn't appear to believe in that being a possibility, so.... go figure....)
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Post Post #977 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:56 am

Post by Ircher »

Fyi, I have nothing more to say right now, other than I am waiting on Egg's case.
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Post Post #978 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:48 am

Post by Ircher »

Spoiler: Ryu/Egg ISO #2
1. In , Ryu asks what happens when 3 different alignments remain. -
Very strange question to ask, especially when the possibility does not exist, but nonetheless, nothing meaningful can be made of it. -
Null Indicative


2. In and , Ryu emphasizes the fact that the UTL vote was a joke -
The only way I can say this is scummy is if I knew what prior experience Ryu had concerning forum mafia. Ryu made an RVS vote, yet then proceeds to emphasize it was RVS for strange reaons. If he had prior experience, I could definitely say that is scum indicative due to the fact he is trying to disassociate himself from the hammer. If this is his first time though, then it makes more sense, though then the question arises about emphasizing it twice. That however is answerable, as Ryu later explains he is a poor communicator. If I give Ryu the benefit of the doubt, then that means I can also take the trying to fit in part as null. -
Null-Town Indicative
(Considering the evidence, I don't think he has forum mafia experience, and if that is the case, then everything else about the posts concerning this make perfect sense.)


3. - Ryu also puts an FoS on YA saying it's simply gut -
Except this part. Again, I have to weigh in the poor communicator aspect. Someone needs to remind me what the VC was at the time. If the VC was less than 3, this is
Null-Scum Indicative
; else, it is
Null-Town Indicative
. This one needs to be kept in mind though it tells little by itself.


4. , Ryu states he has played EpicMafia as mafioso before -
Whoops, scratch that earlier conclusion (2) and replace that with -
Scum Indicative
as I am sure there is RVS on EpicMafia.


5. Ryu End Result ===> Neutral (-45%)


6. Egg gives read list in -
Nothing alignment indicative here. There are a lot of "effort" reads, but I tend to make such an association a lot too. The only thing weird is the Aero read which is based on Aero being the IC, but I don't think it's a tell in and out of itself. -
Null-Indicative


7. In , Egg randomly brings up fake cop and asks why is it frowned upon. -
Another "noise" question that is completely irrelevent to the conversation on hand.... This is a bit of a stretch, but is how I perceive it -
Null-Scum Indicative


8. - Egg does 1) VT claim 2) State he's useless 3) Unvotes YA, his only scumread........ -
This post is by far the worse post this slot has made. The VT claim & useless comment is akin to giving up - bad start. But, the worst part is the unvote of YA, his main and only scumread, with no reason other than "I'm, uh, not feeling it anymore" - Seems VERY opportunistic in nature (isn't this about when the YA wagon began to die?) and the utter lack of confidence he expresses in his unvote makes me think he isn't really committed to it; in fact, this post gives townie points to YA since Egg opportunistically got off the YA wagon with a half reason that isn't even confident! -
Very Scum-Indicative


7. - Egg is asking others about the UTL slot, etc. -
Not sure what to label this as; really, I can go either way. Scum -- Doesn't want to take an active stance & wants to avoid any blame for a possible mislynch. Town -- Confused townie who isn't good at mafia. Oh well, I guess I have to go with -
Null-Indicative


8. More newbie questions in and -
Really hard to tell; genuine, or is it a false newbie facade to try to cover up his lack of content? I haven't really like the amount of effort so far, so I'm leaning toward the latter:
Null-Scum Indicative


9. Readlist at end of D1 by Egg in . I will come back to this, but the interesting part i I'm a townread.

10. By , Egg provides an updated readlist with me as Weak Town and.... votes me??? -
Now, look at #9 again. There is no mention of me by Egg at all between the posts, but I'm suddenly deserving a vote? No, that doesn't cut it for me; when making that drastic of change of read, you need an actual reason, even if it is gut or PoE (neither of which you specify; you simply say Shannon is ranked lower (but interestingly enough have YA on the bottom tier), omgus me, and say I have an aggressive playstyle (not at all, it's analytical)) - Omgus in this case is very weak, weaker imo than gut. And what you said does not seem to match up with what you do. We can also add in the town lose attitude (we should lynch Ircher D2 then me D3 which is a town loss if you are town), we can safely conclude -
Very Scum Indicative


11. Asks me some decent questions in , but now I'm in the bottom rung..... -
This time, Egg is being more consistent with doing what he says, so I must -
Town Indicative


12.
Combine that with the lurking and defeatist attitude and what I perceive as not trying -
Null-Scum Indicative


That still leaves me with a strong scumread on Egg AND, it is a huge improvement over my earlier case and is imo lynchworthy.
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Post Post #979 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:18 pm

Post by SummerInWonderland »

hey Ircher
I am wondering how would a scumbuddy fits into this?
if he is generally just confused why would he be asking everyone and not just his scumbuddy?
also why would someone direct him to act like that?
why chose these questions to ask?
you are saying he is scum but I want to know how his buddy fits into it.
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Post Post #980 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:52 pm

Post by YawningAngel »

I find the notion that Eggman is following direction from a scumbuddy utterly implausible.
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Post Post #981 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Post by Ircher »

And another listed that as a reason I scumread him. Maybe I hinted once or twice, but no irrationale conclusions please.
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Post Post #982 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:16 pm

Post by Ircher »

And, though assoc. tells can be useful down the road, one can still be scum without providing obvious associative tells.
So therefore, even though Egg currently lacks a likely partner via association, you shouldn't just rule out the possibility he is scum.
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Post Post #983 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:30 pm

Post by SummerInWonderland »

yea that is totally understandable!
but we need to try to find the motive behind actions.
what is the motive? why is the buddy okay with this? and so on.
I think these are important questions to be asking.
we don't have to be looking for a particular scum buddy BUT if he is scum we know he has one.
since you are pushing this case I want to know what you think about it! so possible motive, scumbuddy ect? :)
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Post Post #984 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:03 pm

Post by Jackal711 »

VOTE COUNT 2.4


SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (0) -
mhsmith0 (0) -
shannon (0) -
Eggman (2) - YawningAngel, Ircher
Ircher (2) - Eggman, SummerInWonderland
KickAssAndGiggle (0) -

Not Voting: mhsmith0, KickAssAndGiggle, shannon

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Friday, April 8th 2016 at 10:30 pm PDT or in (expired on 2016-04-08 22:30:00)
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Post Post #985 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:41 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 983, SummerInWonderland wrote:yea that is totally understandable!
but we need to try to find the motive behind actions.
what is the motive? why is the buddy okay with this? and so on.
I think these are important questions to be asking.
we don't have to be looking for a particular scum buddy BUT if he is scum we know he has one.
since you are pushing this case I want to know what you think about it! so possible motive, scumbuddy ect? :)

My guess for a buddy is in {mhsmith, shannon} tbh.

Mhsmith has the possible assoc. for pushing my lynch which Egg is the counterwagon to. I highly doubt that the scumteam is YA/Egg. And SIW doesn't really fit in all, but I gotta keep an eye there. KAAG I still extremely townread & just don't see scum there.
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Post Post #986 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:04 pm

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

In post 973, mhsmith0 wrote:Shannon, I would say that you should vote for whoever you honestly believe is scum. Letting Egg hang around until LYLO is problematic in a lot of ways, but if you're convinced Ircher is scum (and that Egg is not), then you need to be voting Ircher. If you're pretty undecided (or think they're about equally likely to be scum) then you're probably better off going with the policy lynch of Egg.

I personally lean towards Egg being town who simply isn't doing a great job as opposed to this being an intentional scum strategy (and for the record, if he IS scum, and his scum buddy is either SE, and Egg was pushed into lurking as a scum strategy, I'm going to have words in the post-game with his partner, for what I think are obvious reasons).

At any rate, I DO think that Ircher is scum, and I think that he provided us with a solidly alignment-indicative moment with his D1 shannon vote. So that's where I am, barring a non CC'd role claim or a legitimately convincing defense of his own slot or a legitimately convincing attack of another slot. And there's less than 48 hours to go.


At this stage, no doubt the lynch has to be between {Egg, Ircher}. Not only are they the two wagons but they're cross-voting each other, and nobody is pushing a case on anyone else. If they're
both
alive tomorrow, our chance of winning will be a coin-flip.


Ircher,


I asked you 4 questions in . I do not believe you have answered them directly, and I think they are important. Could you? (If you think you have and I've missed the answers, please point them out).

I read your quote wall, and some of the quotes do indeed comprise why there is a case on you. I didn't see anything to make me more or less inclined: case is still valid but not watertight.


Eggman


In your last post, you promised

In post 950, Eggman wrote:I'll try to go into more detail and make a case later


28 hours have passed, and there is a 48 hour "intent-to-hammer" on another player, when you are the counter-wagon. A cornerstone of town-play is to lynch the right person, and your apparent inability to dedicate 20 minutes a day to the game is making that hard. Two people are calling you scum, at least one thinks you're "lazy town". I'll be frank: I haven't got a clue on you, and it's annoying at this stage.

I'm sorry to bang on about it, but you are
making
me have to bang on about it.
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Post Post #987 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:15 pm

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

In post 978, Ircher wrote:9. Readlist at end of D1 by Egg in 697. I will come back to this, but the interesting part i I'm a townread.

10. By 787, Egg provides an updated readlist with me as Weak Town and.... votes me??? - Now, look at #9 again. There is no mention of me by Egg at all between the posts, but I'm suddenly deserving a vote? No, that doesn't cut it for me; when making that drastic of change of read, you need an actual reason, even if it is gut or PoE (neither of which you specify; you simply say Shannon is ranked lower (but interestingly enough have YA on the bottom tier), omgus me, and say I have an aggressive playstyle (not at all, it's analytical)) - Omgus in this case is very weak, weaker imo than gut. And what you said does not seem to match up with what you do. We can also add in the town lose attitude (we should lynch Ircher D2 then me D3 which is a town loss if you are town), we can safely conclude - Very Scum Indicative


This is the issue with hiding stuff in Spoiler Tags: I miss things. :(

These are both good points. Eggman's content is not only brief and fleeting, it does look opportunistic at times.
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Post Post #988 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:21 pm

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

In post 985, Ircher wrote:
In post 983, SummerInWonderland wrote:yea that is totally understandable!
but we need to try to find the motive behind actions.
what is the motive? why is the buddy okay with this? and so on.
I think these are important questions to be asking.
we don't have to be looking for a particular scum buddy BUT if he is scum we know he has one.
since you are pushing this case I want to know what you think about it! so possible motive, scumbuddy ect? :)

My guess for a buddy is in {mhsmith, shannon} tbh.

Mhsmith has the possible assoc. for pushing my lynch which Egg is the counterwagon to. I highly doubt that the scumteam is YA/Egg. And SIW doesn't really fit in all, but I gotta keep an eye there. KAAG I still extremely townread & just don't see scum there.


I know you were just answering a question here, so I read nothing into this, but I still don't know about looking for buddies pre-flip.

One thing I will suggest is that Eggman is the sort of partner I would bus mercilessly as scum, so I'm not discounting anybody, even those who've pushed him hard.
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Post Post #989 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:46 pm

Post by SummerInWonderland »

In post 988, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:One thing I will suggest is that Eggman is the sort of partner I would bus mercilessly as scum, so I'm not discounting anybody, even those who've pushed him hard.


thoughts on YA?
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Post Post #990 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:03 pm

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

If you mean in general, then he's 3rd in my lynch pool: {Ircher/Eggman, YA}. He was second, but with the case presented on Ircher that mhsmith0 and yourself seem to agree with (I'm ignoring Eggman's vote as he's the counter-wagon), if one of Eggman/Ircher doesn't go today, this is all going to play out again tomorrow, which will be unproductive.

If you mean as an associate: ANYONE could/would consider bussing Eggman, IMHO. Nobody is excluded.
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Post Post #991 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:19 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 975, Ircher wrote:
In post 972, shannon wrote:@KAAG assuming no vote changes between slots, I would need to take further advice from the more experienced townies about which is the better play. My gut says that Egg is going to be useless going in to LYLO so we may as well lynch him now, but I worry that we won't get much useful information from doing so. (And you know, I can't tell whether he's lazy town or lazy scum, the slot claimed VT before, and I'd rather lynch scum over town, no matter how little the town is helping). I feel pretty good about Ircher being scum, but we need to give him an opportunity to defend himself properly. So honestly, I don't know.

I would very much appreciate an expansion / elaboration on what you mean here, @Shannon.

Specifically, what is your Egg stance and why?

This suggests to me that you are trying to avoid lynching Egg, yet at the same time, you think Egg is a good lynch. I need to have a more definite stance; you cannot be two polar opposites at the same time (in contrast to a mixed stance which I'm not really seeing).

I'll clarify the problem in my next post.



What I am trying to do is avoid making a rash judgment based on my gut, since my gut has apparently not done so well this game .(If Summer flips scum I am going to be so annoyed because she was my earliest read and no one else went with it).

You are correct in that I think Egg is a good lynch, but for strategy/policy reasons rather than inherent scumminess. How can we take someone to LYLO who doesn't show up to vote or explain himself? I am still unsure whether Egg's other behaviours read as lazy (or uncaring?) town or as a scum strategy (or as a scum who doesn't care what his partner thinks). Having read the posts after yours, I am leaning toward lazy because lurking really is a bad scum strategy in so many ways. So what I'm asking myself is whether making a lynch due to policy (guaranteed to help us during LYLO if Egg keeps playing the same way) is better than making a lynch due to suspected scumminess (could go well, could be another towny down).

If I had 0 candidates for scum I'd be voting Egg on policy. But I do have a really good candidate! The only reason I haven't formally voted for you Ircher is because MH asked people to avoid it so we don't end up with a lolhammer. But here you are, pushing me to commit. So I'm doing it.
I find it suspicious that Ircher has questioned my lack of a vote but hasn't questioned MH, who has also expressed intent to vote for him.
I know it's your job to avoid a lynch on yourself, but shouldn't you be questioning both of us? Are you trying to make my indecision look scummy? I think I've managed to explain myself clearly, or at least, MH and KAAG have read my questions charitably and provided useful strategic info for me to base my vote on.

I have stated my problem with this vote cycle before, but I think it got buried in my wall of text, so here I am again:

It looks like either Ircher or Egg will be gone soon. My difficulty with current voting pattern is that time zones and flights mean I won't be here to vote when the board is most active. I don't want to be in the position of hammering while you guys are all asleep. So I am going to commit to my vote now.


This vote makes Ircher L-1. Nobody hammer without stating intent first. We still have lots of time left in D2. Give Ircher a chance to role claim or otherwise save himself.


VOTE: Ircher
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Post Post #992 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:51 pm

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

YA, if you leap off Ircher and hammer, I will consider that a full-blown scum claim if Ircher flips town. Seriously, it'll be the shortest D3 in history.

I'm counting on, and fully expect, mhsmith0 to honor the original time-frame. By my reckoning there's still 16 hours, in hope of Eggman posting or a good claim.
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Post Post #993 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:00 pm

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

EBWOP:

"YA, if you leap off
Eggman
and hammer"
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Post Post #994 (ISO) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:15 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I have every intention of waiting until my deadline is up. Tomorow I'll give irchers egg notes the attention they deserve. For now ircher can consider my intentions as they were: pr claim by tomorow or die. Due to my own work schedule being busy, I'll even extend it to an even 24 hours. That's just after 5pm pacific.

In the meantime... Ircher, if you were talking to Thor, and the shannon vote depended on thors seemingly suspicious actions, and I'd already been on the aero slot, why we're you voting shannon instead of Thor? Even your clarifying 557 seems to attack Thor more than shannon.

Ps wrt Thor, tryng to judge reactions off of a fake lol hammer isn't scummy. Bs'ing a junk interpretation of reactions may be scummy, but reaction testing itself isn't bad at all.
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Post Post #995 (ISO) » Thu Mar 31, 2016 12:08 am

Post by YawningAngel »

In post 988, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:
In post 985, Ircher wrote:
In post 983, SummerInWonderland wrote:yea that is totally understandable!
but we need to try to find the motive behind actions.
what is the motive? why is the buddy okay with this? and so on.
I think these are important questions to be asking.
we don't have to be looking for a particular scum buddy BUT if he is scum we know he has one.
since you are pushing this case I want to know what you think about it! so possible motive, scumbuddy ect? :)

My guess for a buddy is in {mhsmith, shannon} tbh.

Mhsmith has the possible assoc. for pushing my lynch which Egg is the counterwagon to. I highly doubt that the scumteam is YA/Egg. And SIW doesn't really fit in all, but I gotta keep an eye there. KAAG I still extremely townread & just don't see scum there.


I know you were just answering a question here, so I read nothing into this, but I still don't know about looking for buddies pre-flip.

One thing I will suggest is that Eggman is the sort of partner I would bus mercilessly as scum, so I'm not discounting anybody, even those who've pushed him hard.

Presumably I would have at least attempted some coaching before tunnelling my own team mate relentlessly. Doesn't the time frame make this rather unlikely?
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Post Post #996 (ISO) » Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:03 am

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

Of the six other players in the game, 5 have post counts over 100 and the other has 86.

Eggman has 18.

So who knows if he's even looking at the scum topic (if he's scum)? Let alone reading it or interacting. So I exclude nobody.
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Post Post #997 (ISO) » Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:17 am

Post by YawningAngel »

Is there anything I can say to convince you a) of my good intentions or b) that lynching Ircher is a terrible idea?
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Post Post #998 (ISO) » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:03 am

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

You say lynching Ircher is a terrible idea, and yet when I go back through your ISO I see vague statements like:

Thus I'm putting the probability that Ircher is scum at ~0.25 (less a bit for Eggman not being certainly scum, plus a little for the even distribution in that case, I can't be arsed to math it out because I'm not being that precise). Neither you nor mhsmith has made a constructive case that alters my view of that, so that's where my ballparking of the probability sits. I'm not going to sit here and let you lynch one of the people in a four-way tie


(Post for full context)

So you give Ircher a 25% chance of being scum (I'm assuming you think Eggman is > 90%, given the "less a bit" part), when there are FIVE (not four) other players in the tie (excluding yourself and Eggman). Or is someone other than Ircher/you beyond reproach?

Despite the case on Ircher not being watertight, it's far from non-existent. So if you want to prevent this lynch, I would suggest you form an equally strong case on at least one of the following players:

{KAAG, mhsmith0, shannon, SIW}

If you can't/won't, then A) your 25% marker seems odd, and B) yeah...we get you don't like lurkers, but that case is objectively weaker.

However, I am somewhat limited here by the fact that it's not MY intent-to-hammer on the table...but I should be utterly clear that I am not opposed to mhsmith0's position: his case is the strongest on offer, and I've seen weaker cases find scum, many times. The best presented case gets the lynch, and this case on Ircher is the best presented case, IMHO.
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Post Post #999 (ISO) » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:44 am

Post by YawningAngel »

I don't have a better case for any of the people listed, as you well know because you've read my post. I just don't think Ircher is particularly scummy. I think the balance of probabilities is that he's going to flip town and we're going to go into LyLo with the outright liability that Eggman represents on our team. Barring some productive cop/tracker play (and we have a 1/3 chance that neither of those PRs even exists in this game) we're going to be really screwed at that point.

Conversely, if we get rid of him now, then at best we buy ourselves more time to hunt the other scum down and at worst we hit LyLo with a clearer picture of things.

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