Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[originality]

Yeah, I think you need to see my other games if you don't believe that. I have not played a single game (bar my first one) where I didn't wagon prolifically.

Mod Note: Edited for reference to ongoing game

[Oman]

Were you in my town games where I did this? You seem to have broken knowledge.

[vollkan]

I want to know if Orig is killing or not. Who he kills, as vollkan stated, should remain an element of wonder and mystery. But whether or not he kills is different.

Well, we have two options:
1) Outright ban
2) Consensus approach

1) has the advantage of apparently confirming that Orig is innocent. Obviously, though, if we ban it outright then SK Orig might decide to not NK as a means of ensuring his survival to N3 (because if he NKed he would be noosed). On the plus side, it guarantees that we will not lose by tomorrow morning. Another obvious cost is the fact that we will very likely lose AlyG.

2) has the immediate effect of making Orig a much more potent threat to the mafia. With 2), Orig's death is more likely than AlyG's. However, it also runs the risk of Orig NKing a town.

It is a debatable point, I think and there really is not a clear basis for one over the other. I think that given the uncertainty of Vig/SK already, 1 is probably sufficient, but I don't like losing the greater uncertainty of 2).

[Oman]

1) gives us great reward (almost confirming orig) for little loss (unable to kill mafia)

2) Gives great reward (Dead mafia) for great loss (possible dead town, possible SKorig)

[originality]

Were you in my town games where I did this? You seem to have broken knowledge.

Mod Note: Edited for reference to ongoing game

[Oman]

lol, you can't use an ongoing game on me either way.

[originality]

lol, you can't use an ongoing game on me either way.

Mod Note: Edited for reference to ongoing game

[Streeflo]

Don't make references to ongoing games. Posts have been edited

[shaft.ed]

AlyG, you want an explaination of my bandwagoning? I'm a bandwagoner, its what I do. My playstyle: BANDWAGON! My scumhunting method: BANDWAGON! My favourite colour: BANDWAGON!

I've been lynched for it before, but its like....like....well its like Albert B Rampage's playstyle being absolute insanity, he gets lynched for it, but he won't change it.

I simply feel that pressure from votes is the most effective tool in outing scum. Voting paterns, etc.

That's not a good explanation at all. You like to do it?. It seems to be, you just made that up because you didn't REALLY have an explanation. If that's your playstyle why didn't you tell us earlier when you were attacked for it? No you ignored it, like you have ignored other attacks. And if you are telling the truth look at Shaft.ed's list of your bandwagonning and look at the hole you have dug yourself into. And you never told us you do it for Voting patterns e.t.c. that doesn't help your case much either.

Overall, i'm dissapointed in your response and i think it's far-fetched to be doing this on purpose. I said i would vote for someone and now i am so

Vote: Oman

Actually AlyG, Oman has stated previously that he likes to bandwagon, this all came up in the opening bandwagon of originality with the tiny white text. And if you meta him he bandwagons a lot. But, I feel some of these bandwagons have been opprotunistic especially given his 180 turn on AlyG simply due to vollkan's first analysis post. This was the day after AlyG was getting townie brownie's for not bandwagoning ryan and maintaining his orig vote. That one really set poorly with me. His posting also hasn't been incredibly pro-town but a lot of players in this game are guilty of that.

@Oman, you still haven't addressed my post about your statement that "the town is doing so well hunting scum." I had way more of an issue with this sequence of events than the bandwagoning.

[Gemelli]

Well, we have two options:
1) Outright ban
2) Consensus approach

1) has the advantage of apparently confirming that Orig is innocent. Obviously, though, if we ban it outright then SK Orig might decide to not NK as a means of ensuring his survival to N3 (because if he NKed he would be noosed). On the plus side, it guarantees that we will not lose by tomorrow morning. Another obvious cost is the fact that we will very likely lose AlyG.

I think that's a possibility, but not necessarily more likely than us losing originality. If they leave orig alive, the town essentially gets to make two lynch decisions on N3. If they leave AlyG alive, the town gets to hear the results of another track. Regardless of what we tell orig to do tonight, the Mafia will have a tough decision to make tonight.

2) has the immediate effect of making Orig a much more potent threat to the mafia. With 2), Orig's death is more likely than AlyG's. However, it also runs the risk of Orig NKing a town.

What's been bugging me about approach 2), though, is that through the consensus lists, the mafia has enough information to make an informed guess as to what originality is likely to do with this information.

If more than half of the players on the consensus list are town, and/or originality has been leaning in favor of killing a player that is NOT mafia, I would actually expect the mafia to

advocate

the "let orig do his thing" approach. This would set up a nice metagame strategy for D3: nightkill AlyG, hope that orig targets a town role, and then argue for his lynch.

This will put a lot of the D2 posts into a very interesting light once we arrive at D3. It's made me rethink at least one player's alignment after a brief skim of the consensus list discussions.

It is a debatable point, I think and there really is not a clear basis for one over the other. I think that given the uncertainty of Vig/SK already, 1 is probably sufficient, but I don't like losing the greater uncertainty of 2).

I would argue that the uncertainty of "will he act or not" would be offset by the public-view consensus lists. Everyone will know who the players on the consensus list are, but only the mafia will know how many of the players on that list are mafia.

As such, I am strongly in favor of approach 1) for tonight. In our current situation, I would favor a low-risk/low-gain strategy over a high-risk/high-gain one.

[shaft.ed]

I've got to agree with what Gemelli said above. Even if orig is not a threat tonight, if left alive the town will get two effective lynches for D3. This seems as much or more of a threat than a tracker investigation could be. As such, I feel this leaves the mafia with a difficult enough situation. Adding in the possibility of orig killing just gives him more options for clearing his name while still benefiting himself if anti-town.

So I am officially decided in only advocating a No Kill from originality tonight. I will disagree with any other action, and this is what I personally expect of originality.

[Lucienne]

I agree with those who are saying that dybeck is trying to save his butt with the nightkill. Panicking much, dybeck? I don't see any reason for town to panic about it. Scum, however, yes.

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

Why these positions?

I agree with vollkan that orig's 898 is WIFOMy in nature.

AlyG, you want an explaination of my bandwagoning? I'm a bandwagoner, its what I do. My playstyle: BANDWAGON! My scumhunting method: BANDWAGON! My favourite colour: BANDWAGON!

I've been lynched for it before, but its like....like....well its like Albert B Rampage's playstyle being absolute insanity, he gets lynched for it, but he won't change it.

I simply feel that pressure from votes is the most effective tool in outing scum. Voting paterns, etc.

Metagame time.

Oman, can you give me the link of a recent game you have finished as town, and one as scum? (Although since this seems to be your defence, I'm surprised you haven't done already).

Also, I'm in the emphatic no kill camp as well. It could be fatal to kill anyone tonight, and from a town perspective there are no advantages of doing so.

[vollkan]

I think that's a possibility, but not necessarily more likely than us losing originality. If they leave orig alive, the town essentially gets to make two lynch decisions on N3. If they leave AlyG alive, the town gets to hear the results of another track. Regardless of what we tell orig to do tonight, the Mafia will have a tough decision to make tonight.

Yes, this is very true. Killing AlyG is a gambit for them, since Orig could either run in their favour or against. Killing Orig is a "safe" option, effectively.

What's been bugging me about approach 2), though, is that through the consensus lists, the mafia has enough information to make an informed guess as to what originality is likely to do with this information.

If more than half of the players on the consensus list are town, and/or originality has been leaning in favor of killing a player that is NOT mafia, I would actually expect the mafia to advocate the "let orig do his thing" approach. This would set up a nice metagame strategy for D3: nightkill AlyG, hope that orig targets a town role, and then argue for his lynch.

This will put a lot of the D2 posts into a very interesting light once we arrive at D3. It's made me rethink at least one player's alignment after a brief skim of the consensus list discussions.

That's true, and the ability of scum to exploit this is one of the reasons why my more recent posts have been shifting from that second option. It just creates too many avenues of advantage for scum (both SKOrig and mafia). It's effectively a gambit on our part to follow this line, in light of the renewed analysis we got yesterday.

Hence, whilst option 2 could have significant pay-off, I am going to advocate No Kill since we have now determined that the risks of 2 outweigh the possible benefits. Indeed, the only benefit is a mafia NK, which still leaves Orig's alignment up in the air (a SK NK would, of course, prove Orig is mafia)

Oman, can you give me the link of a recent game you have finished as town, and one as scum? (Although since this seems to be your defence, I'm surprised you haven't done already).

Oh I've been hoping someone would say this. This game just finished with town win: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 237#710237

Mafia Oman gets dayvigged on D1 by me (a vig mason) after falling for a really easy trap. (Probably not the most useful game for analysing Oman, but I just want to rub it in )

[Oman]

@Oman, you still haven't addressed my post about your statement that "the town is doing so well hunting scum."

I happen to think Dybeck is obvobv scum, you guys almost had him, at that point I thought I'd come back to a nice relaxing N2

Oman, can you give me the link of a recent game you have finished as town, and one as scum?

The only completed game I have as scum got me dayvigged D1 by our very own Vollkan The Interrigator. It was my first scum game and I had a brain fuck in the middle of it. I shoulda done better.

I'm on nearly every wagon there in the one Vollkan set.

A town game in which I wagon
I'm on pretty much every wagon up until the scum NK me.

[shaft.ed]

@Oman, you still haven't addressed my post about your statement that "the town is doing so well hunting scum."

I happen to think Dybeck is obvobv scum, you guys almost had him, at that point I thought I'd come back to a nice relaxing N2

This really set's poorly with me. If you think dybeck is obv scum, you don't just leave the game thinking "I'm sure those guys will take care of him. Ho Dee Hum."

And as I pointed out in that extremely long post that you have totally ignored, you didn't disappear from the thread until after the suspicion was moving in your direction. So even your faulty premise is incorrect.

Finally, your recent excuse has cruxed on you being overly busy with your plethora of other games. If you're so busy with all of the other games that you can't nail down obv scum in this one, why are you signing up for more of them?

Confirm vote Oman

[dybeck]

Can I take a quick straw poll?

Who thinks I'll die tonight?

[shaft.ed]

Can I take a quick straw poll?

Who thinks I'll die tonight?

If you're not lynched today, you will be extremely likely to be alive tommorow, so don't sign up for any new games during the night phase. SK orig is about the only scenario I see you getting NK'd.

Why are you so concerned about dying in the night btw?

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Or dying in general for that matter.

[originality]

Can I take a quick straw poll?

Who thinks I'll die tonight?

Me.

















I kid, I kid. Ok serious answer: I want you lynched. I understand the reasons behind the oman wagon, but dybeck is a way better choice for today. And as much as I'm after Lucienne, no one is paying attention to that, so I shall

unvote, vote dybeck

for the purposes of us starting to make a decision on today's lynch.

PS: I reserve the right not to have to explain it at this height in the game. I've established my reasons plenty of times, and I feel like a fool repeating the same thing over and over. I'll only say this: His 100% conviction of me being scum keeps nagging me, since I'm the only one who knows for a fact that that is false. I don't know if I can explain it well, I guess it is about him making a blatently wrong decision, which leads me to suspect him even more.

[shaft.ed]

originality, your reasoning is faulty. You seem to think that the people defending you from a lynch believe you are very likely to be town. Most of us, at least me personally, believe you

may

be town but are running with the idea that if you are not town aligned you are quite likely to be NK'd tonight by an opposing anti-town faction. Where I believe dybeck to be wrong is where he ignores this section of the situation and stubbornly insists lynching you is the only play for today. He also twists people's words and associates any person thinking you should be left alive with a scum faction. This is where he is being scummy, not in specifically calling for your lynch.

I personally would like you to explain what makes dybeck a "way better choice for today" than Oman. I know I've been struggling with this decision (or perhaps someone outside of this duo) and would like to know what makes you so sure that dybeck is the scum.

[originality]

originality, your reasoning is faulty. You seem to think that the people defending you from a lynch believe you are very likely to be town. Most of us, at least me personally, believe you

may

be town but are running with the idea that if you are not town aligned you are quite likely to be NK'd tonight by an opposing anti-town faction. Where I believe dybeck to be wrong is where he ignores this section of the situation and stubbornly insists lynching you is the only play for today. He also twists people's words and associates any person thinking you should be left alive with a scum faction. This is where he is being scummy, not in specifically calling for your lynch.

I personally would like you to explain what makes dybeck a "way better choice for today" than Oman. I know I've been struggling with this decision (or perhaps someone outside of this duo) and would like to know what makes you so sure that dybeck is the scum.

Ok I expected this. I meant that only *I* know myself to be town, and therefore especially I knew that his insistence on my lynch was weird. Trust me, I know you guys are suspicious of me.

Now with why dybeck>Oman for today.
You could say they are the extreme opposites, with dybeck being too stubborn, and Oman changing his mind too easily. Both extremes are bad I say.

Dybeck however, fails at reasoning. Oman at least understands peoples excuses (or says he does I guess) and offers his own half assed excuses, which could be interpreted as shady when looking at his vote pattern, but still plausible.

Dybeck just refuses to believe that his thought process might be wrong. To you guys it might seem less odd then to me, because you don't know for sure whether I'm town or scum. But I do. Therefore his insistence is especially weird to me.

Now lets backtrack to the original anti-dybeck reasons. He seemed sort of obsessed with the SK in the beginning, being SO sure that shaft.ed was it. Now when I show up he completely forgets about his old shaft.ed arguments, because hey look a confirmed killing role.

The mafia would simply LOVE to get a SK lynched, because A) it is good for them, and b) makes them look good for the town. Ok, that argument is wifomish, I admit. If they got a vig lynched, they at least would have the excuse of "I had NO way of knowing he wasn't an SK!" which is an OK excuse I guess. It definitely won't bring the town's ire upon him tomorrow if he gets a vig lynched, because no one knew better.

His stronghold of anti-originality is focused on "Carrotcake was most prototwn player ever no vig would kill him he simply MUST be scum". Which would be acceptable for the beginning of this discussion, but even after I pointed out how I hated carrotcake's weird quietness, and how he seemed to be to be trying too hard to appear town, and after everyone was shown how carrotcake wasn't especially pro-town at ALL, he still ignores this.

And his odd death paranoia. He seemed too sure I was going to NK him, and for that he kept trying to get me to give him my word on a specific night action. The mafia would like to know exactly what I would do, so they know for a fact whether I am a threat or not. Very suspicious thing for him to say. And he keeps asking everyone how likely his night death would be. Well, at least I can answer you now, since the town seems to have made up its mind. I will not NK.

[Gemelli]

Originality, I think your reasoning for targetting Dybeck is sound. But you've been kind of buddy-buddy with Oman for a lot of the game, scummy behavior notwithstanding -- see posts 61-62, 126, 195, 300, 389, 435, 553, 555, 595, 622, 698, and 738, all of which feature you complimenting or defending him -- and that makes me nervous. Just about everyone else in the game seems to find his behavior scummy, metagame or not. Why are you so convinced he's town in spite of it all?

[Gemelli]

And guys, work is going to be busy for a few days. But to help you all along with the scum catching, I give you the beta version of my Mafia Thread Parser.

Now, in addition to creating a summary of the entire game, you can enter a player's forum name and the parser will show you ALL of the posts they've made during the game, including hotlinks to take you right to the thread if you need context.

I will be taking the script down in a few days to perform more maintenance on it. For now, please don't publicize it too much, and remember that it is a beta script and as such may not produce 100% reliable results. That being said, I think it's going to be helpful in analyzing the game histories of our top 3-4 scum candidates.

[Gemelli]

Oops, forgot to mention: you must enter the player name to track with no caps for now. And the script converts all of the post text to lowercase because that made it easier for me to do the screen-scraping.

[originality]

Why are you so convinced he's town in spite of it all?

I'm not. He is my number 4, and pretty much number 3 now that elias is confirmed to actually not be lurking, but actually disappeared. I do think Oman is scummy, only dybeck is more so.