Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I did answer but I'll restate:

1) Thor was aggressive and scum-read YA, so I can see why he died instead of us D1

2) shannon did give away the fact she was cop or tracker, twice. See posts 724 and 725, and then posts 895 to 902. An investigative PR is the holy grail of a night kill.

So all 3 of us are alive because there were better targets both nights.

[YawningAngel]

Why on earth would I omit compelling evidence from a case? Even if I were trying to fail, that would be an obvious error on my part. It's far more probable that I'm telling the truth and just disagree with you about the quality of the evidence.

Far more probable? I don't really understand what you mean when you say things like that (it's not the first time).

It is binary: unless smith is scum, one of us is. You get that, right? Probable has nothing to do with it. Either I'm scum and your case is correct, or you are and your case is fake. Probable doesn't come into it.

Probable absolutely comes into it. SIW and smith are making decisions under uncertainty, and until the lynch is through and they know for sure, they're stuck making probabilistic judgements. The hypothesis "Angel decided to ignore evidence that was available and obviously relevant" seems like a bad one - even if I did want the case to fail, it'd be pretty obvious I was doing that. Conversely, "Angel didn't think the evidence was very relevant" seems pretty reasonable.

[SummerInWonderland]

2) shannon did give away the fact she was cop or tracker, twice. See posts 724 and 725, and then posts 895 to 902. An investigative PR is the holy grail of a night kill.

Oh you picked up on that too.... interesting....
they don't seem like obvious tells tho.

[mhsmith0]

Nah, kaag has a point there wrt shannon. 895-902 is way too interested in cop claiming. COULD be cover/faking (or scum pretending to), but that's a likely cop role trying for an easy counter. 725 less so, but it's still hinting at it. As an FYI for future, when you're a doc you should be cop/pr hunting too, except in your case to protect instead of kill.

The thor kill I'm less convinced on. Taht reads like a kill by a scum team satisfied with the game state and nervous about a new and aggressive voice potentially shaking things up.

Ps that said the shannon kill and non protect means that scum!kaag would have had to claim BP, not doc. No way would he get away with being doc and missing that one. And he'd have then had to justify the nature of his play inside a BP claim.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Uh...KAAG did not spot it first time. YA drew my attention to it:

I pinned Shannon as cop after she was very suspicious of what she saw as me soft-claiming cop on day 2. Obviously, a tracker can do the same thing as there's no setup with both roles, though this didn't occur to me. I presume that scum figured out the same, thereby explaining her being NK'd yesterday.

On re-reading, I agree it was obvious. And in fairness, when you look at point 5 in your long case on me, it doesn't seem as if you saw it either:

5) Night kills
Thor seems like he was killed to shut him up. WIFOM to some degree, but it points to both YA and KAAG as people who wanted him silenced; other scum teams would have likely thought he could be ML'd on day 2. Shannon MAY have been killed for a tracker read, but it's also entirely possible that she was killed explicitly to suit KAAG's end-game. If scum!KAAG had (or thought he had) me and Summer pocketed, he wouldn't want us gone. And killing YA/Egg would be hunting in the PoE, which he REALLY wouldn't want. So that's incriminating as well; the question is whether scum team truly read shannon as PR, or if they just got lucky.

...

I still find that you are trying to fit evidence into a hypothesis. While I have no doubt whatsoever you are town (because you would just go "Oh yeah, Eggman is scum" if you were scum and vote him with me), you aren't seeing the real evidence. I've posted it 3 times now.

You don't think the fact that YA was the only one who saw shannon was cop/tracker at the time as telling? What about Eggman voting Ircher over YA after his read-list? Or missing YA off of his D2 read list? Or that Eggman made it to D3 if YA was really pushing him?

[YawningAngel]

You heard it here first kids, I'm scum because I notice things about the game and try to achieve pro-town goals based off that!

Seriously, though. If Eggman was so scummy and I'm his partner, why didn't y'all at least notice him and put things together yourself? Particularly directed at KAAG

[KickAssAndGiggle]

For the third time...

When I left this thread, I was torn between YA and Eggman.

My pool of 5:

{SIW, shannon, Ircher, YA, Eggman}

had gone to 3:

SIW drops out because I still feel she is very towny, despite reconsidering after the flips
shannon dropped out because my gut says she is towny. I wish I could articulate on shannon...but it really is just gut.

Which left me 3, and my thoughts were that both YA + Eggman were more likely than Ircher. I was almost certainly going to vote Eggman today, until I saw mhsmith and SIW on Ircher.

[YawningAngel]

I see. So you thought Eggman was a better lynch, but you decided to bandwagon Ircher anyway. Oh dear, KAAG, oh dear.

[mhsmith0]

@YA: Could you give me a case for why KAAG/Egg make sense as a team? I'm having a pretty hard time seeing Egg/YA as a team (Egg was at L-1 on D1 for a while, with Thor as a TBD item; that EASILY could have gone very badly very quickly for an Egg/YA team).

Also, can you give us some more on

I do not like this SIW vote very much. We're approaching deadline and we would need substantial discussion to lynch her at this point, even if the case were strong. The case is not strong. She's been far more productive than Eggman, and per my original point I think the types of analysis that are open to us on day one are very limited. You don't know anyone's alignment for sure and you don't know which lynches they've seriously committed to (votes before deadline are pretty much just fluff, at the end of the day), so you're left with sentiment analysis. Are they active? Are they trying to make sure other players engage with the game? Are they willing to put material out there that can be checked later and which, hopefully, gives us some idea of who they trust if they flip?

SIW has done all of that. You will note that not half a page ago I was asked to justify my negative view on her and pretty much came up with fuckall. I think Eggman, while arguably a weak lynch, is still our best shot. The case for Radja, while better examined tomorrow, is still more compelling than the case for SIW. As a bonus, if you suspect a scum pairing of SIW and UTL/Radja, then we get substantial value out of lynching Radja anyway, a spot most people read as scummier. Obviously don't hammer yet (for anyone who is in doubt about protocol here, do not hammer until near the deadline and having announced intent to do so well in advance), but consider the lynches that are on the table and already have backing.

Addendum: Obviously shannon can't hammer because she's already voting Eggman. Obvious, that is, to anyone save YawningAngel

What's odd is you made this post soon after Shannon voted SIW (that seems to be the SIW vote you were talking about). And then post "hammer" you tossed in

Are you fucking serious

Also, are we allowed to talk now the hammer's gone down?

Were you aware the hammer was fake? Were you aware that shannon had switched vote? If not, which Summer vote were you talking about in the first place? This whole thing just seems odd the more I look at it. Some of the others I can see as being lazy about vote counting, but I'm really struggling to see you specifically not realizing the hammer was fake since it seemed like you were commenting on shannon switching her vote in the first place.

I'd like more background on this, please.

[YawningAngel]

I was aware that shannon had switched but took Thor at his word that it was a hammer.

[mhsmith0]

Walk me through your thought process then, both on your reaction to the Thor "hammer" and then your own quick hammer on Radja. I'm struggling to see the quick transition from "HOW DARE YOU QUICK HAMMER EGG" to "Time to quick hammer Radja". The more I look at this, the more it feels fake. Convince me I'm wrong, and that it was actually real.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I see. So you thought Eggman was a better lynch, but you decided to bandwagon Ircher anyway. Oh dear, KAAG, oh dear.

Yep, having been wrong on D1, I didn't try and lead the lynch on D2. I let it go through primarily due to Thor's read on D1. It is what it is.

You got that D2 case on me yet? Or better yet, KAAG/Eggman?

[mhsmith0]

@ya: right now I'm thinking the likeliest scum team is kaag/ya, and I'm not especially interested in lynching egg today, though new egg may change my mind of course, but that's where I am. So that means that you have a chance to sell the kaag/egg case unencumbered by interference by egg.

Please also note that if you fail to make much of a case, there's a chance that kaag will convince summer and I to just vote you and end the day that way, even before new egg shows up. So if you're town, it behooves you to make your case before kaag potentially pushes us on to you.

Of course, if you're wolf, it may make sense to sit tight and not do much, accept your lynch, and hope your buddy pulls it out in the final three. If that actually is your plan, please let us know and we'll get to it without wasting your time.

[YawningAngel]

Nah I'm good thanks. Just been busy.

I objected to Thor's "hammer" not because I think hammering before deadline is inherently bad, but because of what it implied about the game - in a word, a lackadaisical approach. Was I perhaps a bit naive to take Thor at this word and not check that there wasn't some ploy at work? Absolutely. Did I fabricate outrage for fake townie points? Nope, wouldn't have seemed worth bothering. I tend not to bother fabricating reactions as scum, it's a lot of effort to go to, has little potential upside, and risks exposing you.

Conversely, I

know

that I'm paying attention to the game and am familiar with the cases. I also thought Thor's point about not dragging things out was well made. Given that I thought Radja was probably a good lynch, I wasn't likely to get Eggman, and nothing else was going to be forthcoming, giving people an opportunity to back out of the lynch seemed ill-advised.

I'll post the KAAG/Eggman essay within a few hours. Sorry for the wait, been busy IRL.

I see. So you thought Eggman was a better lynch, but you decided to bandwagon Ircher anyway. Oh dear, KAAG, oh dear.

Yep, having been wrong on D1, I didn't try and lead the lynch on D2.

Well, that's an interesting attitude to take. Worried you'd look too scummy if you were on two failed wagons, were you?

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I'd say it was more a case of knowing that I'm not the only person who can hunt scum and make a case. 4 other people liked the case on Ircher too, 5 if you count Thor. When you look at D1/D2, the only person who ended a single day not voting a towny (considering I was going to hammer Ircher myself) was you on D2, and you and I know that was bussing, even if Summer and smith don't.

But you'll see this for yourself when you create this case of yours.

Please also note that if you fail to make much of a case, there's a chance that kaag will convince summer and I to just vote you and end the day that way, even before new egg shows up. So if you're town, it behooves you to make your case before kaag potentially pushes us on to you.

I won't be voting until Eggman's replacement: we want the scummiest and ideally least aggressive player in the three-way. Right now, that would mean voting YA, but who knows who's replacing in?

This day has already gone on too long though. The number one lesson from this game is be active and don't flake. No blame on smith, but everyone else has either been replaced or twice prodded. I won't flake or be prodded, but I feel I have done what I can to put us on the right path today, so I won't be repeating myself. It's in Summer and smith's hands now.

One last point:

I'm not especially interested in lynching egg today, though new egg may change my mind of course

Why would you change your mind? What new evidence will appear in LYLO? Leaving aside the incredibly unlikely possibility his replacement comes in and scum-slips ridiculously,

the evidence is in the past

. This quote sums up nicely the thinking that is going to hand YA/Eggman a very unlikely win.

[mhsmith0]

@KAAG: if you want to convince me that Egg is a BETTER lynch than YA, I'll try to keep an open mind, but I'm really not convinced right now.
@YA: if you want to convince me that Egg is a BETTER lynch than KAAG, I'll try to keep an open mind, but I'm really not convinced right now.

I'll also note that my not being "especially interested in lynching egg today" shouldn't really matter that much to you, provided that you read me as town (I know KAAG does, I think YA does too). If Summer and I are town, then town!KAAG knows that YA is wolf, and town!YA knows that KAAG is wolf. So while I'd agree that it makes sense to lay the groundwork for a final day lynch of New Egg (a close loss is still a loss after all... just avoiding a wolf sweep isn't enough), I'm not sure it's particularly a problem for today to lynch inside KAAG/YA. If you think it is particularly a problem, feel free to convince me and/or Summer.

PS the entire game state has been frustrating, tbh. @newbies: this really isn't how games around here normally go. I mean, sometimes you have a high replacement rate when things get toxic (which is its own special type of experience), but the apathy in this game doesn't seem to be normal at all. There's a good amount of blame to pass around on that front (and this may include myself for some over-posting tendencies), though I think that's best served to wait until post game to really get into it.

[SummerInWonderland]

PS the entire game state has been frustrating, tbh. @newbies: this really isn't how games around here normally go. I mean, sometimes you have a high replacement rate when things get toxic (which is its own special type of experience), but the apathy in this game doesn't seem to be normal at all. There's a good amount of blame to pass around on that front (and this may include myself for some over-posting tendencies), though I think that's best served to wait until post game to really get into it.

I kinda figured that this game hasn't been normal. :p
I was really frustrated earlier in the game because of it!
I have been at blame lately
I think right now though I just am unsure and its really hard especially when both of the people who I thought were scum ended up being town (Ircher, UTL) I don't want to jump into anything too quickly.
With YA he hasn't been in any of my strong town reads or strong scum reads... for me its a constant back and forth which really sucks.
but anyways I am still trying!! I will have some more questions coming I am sure

[mhsmith0]

It's hard. It's really really really hard. Sometimes you have wolf teams flagrantly screw up. Sometimes you have PR's bail you out. And sometimes you're just left with a situation where you have to do the best you can with information in thread, boht from the first two days and seeing if anything interesting pops out from D3.

I'm currently leaning KAAG/YA wolf team. I think it fits the game progression pretty reasonably well (I can't really see anything in the game state which suggests that it wasn't reasonable, and I think it explains a few things, such as day 2: if it was TvT, with both guys as mislynch candidates, it also potentially explains KAAG's seemingly more passive showing that day; ditto KAAG's "I think it was sincere" defense of YA post hammer on D1 that helped pull him off of the D2 danger list; etc.)

I'm having a super hard time seeing YA/Egg; letting your partner get REALLY close to dying (and Egg was L-1 TWICE on D1, even if the latter was a fake hammer) seems to me like a really big reach in this format. The only way it makes sense to let that happen is if it was more or less inevitable (which doesn't make sense given how many options there were on the table, including most notably UTL/Radja), or it was distancing gone REALLY wrong (which again doesn't make sense, since YA switched ONTO the Egg wagon as it was gaining momentum) or if they KNEW who the JK/Cop/Tracker was (and if they did, Shannon would have died N1 instead of n2).

KAAG/Egg... I'm waiting on that case from YA. Off the cuff I'm not especially sure I buy it, but I don't know that there's something really disqualifying about it either.

[mhsmith0]

EBWOP: KAAG's defense of YA's hammer was http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7774051
for some reason I thought it was stronger than that (though of course it still was a defense at a major danger point for YA). I'll dig around and see if I can anything else notable around that time.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

That wasn't a defense: it was pointing out the difference between a quick hammer and a LOLHammer...a LOL hammer is for the lolz, and that's not what he did.

Regarding D2, you knew at the time I was in LYLO elsewhere and unable to post here meaningfully for 2 days. I returned to find pitchforks out for Ircher. Calling me passive for that is reaching.

And on D1, Egg was never close to dying (shannon removed her vote in 5 hours, after a 24 hour warning), nor did YA join the wagon as it gained traction, he was on second, and leapt off when he chose.

If everything you said was accurate, it would be a good case, no doubt. Regrettably, it isn't.

I am surprised that you have not at least rebutted my case on Eggman (stated thrice). Disagreeing is one thing, but so far I feel it has been ignored. The serious issue with lynching in KAAG/YA is that we lose, either today or tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

I agree that locking ourselves into voting only ya/kaag in either order is game over for town!kaag. But I really haven't been doing that. I've said that I don't want to lynch egg TODAY, and that todya I want to lynch inside ya/kaag.

So let's say from that framework, we lynch ya, and tomorrow it's you, me, and new egg with you under more suspicion (but by no means getting a quick vote). Obviously that's non ideal for you (you'd rather be in the less suspicion slot, regardless of alignment). But is that specifically a problem? Summer is conf!town, in your eyes I'm obv!town, and so if you're town too, then you KNOW it's ya/egg. So why care about the order they get lynched in?

Ps right now I don't find ya/egg particularly credible as a team. Ya keeps promising us a case on kaag/egg. I'd like you to argue the opposite, and convince me that kaag/egg is not a reasonable team given the game development (if you want to take a stab at "it can't be ya/kaag" feel free, but I feel like that's a harder sell), I think that's a useful new avenue of discussion. If you can convince me that kaag/egg is a LESS reasonable wolf team than ya/egg, that's a big step towards getting ya lynched instead of you, and then we can get into the rest on d4.

Pps I agree that egg has done little. Very little. My gut says lazy town, though. I'm willing to reconsider that, but my top two reads right now are you and YA, and so I'm trying to decide which of you is the better lynch today. I 100% promise to more fully re-evaluate in 2v1, but as long as the two of you look wolfier in my eyes, it's a really hard sell until one of you is dead.

[SummerInWonderland]

What I am thinking right now is KAAG is the best bet.
I don't see YA and Egg as partners
where I think Kaag/egg and kaag/ya could be... he is common in both so yea.
this is the point I am at.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

convince me that kaag/egg is not a reasonable team

How many times have you seen inexperienced scum put their partner at the top of their read-lists? Myself...never.

Eggman's reads, end of day 1 edition
I Think These People Are Town: Eggman, Smith, KAAG, Ircher
I'm Not Sure What To Think Of Her Now, But Before I Was Pretty Confident She Was Town: SiW
Neutral: Shannon
I Had A Neutral Read On Him But With The Hammer It's Fallen To Low Neutral But Not Enough To Be Leaning Scum: YA
Neutral With A Slight Scumlean: Thor
Seriously What Happened To You Man: GreenNope

Eggman's Read List: Thor Was Nightkilled, Oh No Edition
Strong Town: Smith, KAAG, Me
Weak Town: SiW, Shannon, Ircher
Low Neutral: YA

@Smith:
Townies: Smith, KAAG, Me
Neutral: SiW, Shannon
I think these would be good lynches: Me, YA, Ircher

Eggman's Read List: MYLO edition
Smith: Because we all townread you because you seemed the most towny. But, while writing this post, I realized; why are we taking Smith for granted? (Don't lynch him though, I still say YA)
KAAG: I still feel that with his efforts to be the town leader that he's someone I can put my trust in (although mislynch happened.)

Every time, I am top-tier. YA starts off as "not scummy enough to vote", then on D2 slides to bottom, but Ircher gets the vote. Then in LYLO (misstated by Egg as MYLO), YA slips to the bottom, as they didn't think they could get both to the 3-way (this was before you stated you thought I was scum).

The scum team is YA/Eggman. It is clearly YA/Eggman. They haven't even played that well: just getting to LYLO means nothing when it's this obvious.

PEdit: quotes contained color when I copied them...my name was green in all.

PEdit2: I tried. At least it's a learning experience.

[mhsmith0]

I'm leaning there too, but I want to see this supposed kaag/egg case ya has been working on. I'm troubled by ya choosing not to share with the class. And I'd like to see kaag try and argue against that one too. I want as much relevant info on the table for last three, presuming we lynch correctly here.

Ninjad on kaag/egg

[mhsmith0]

Well, it's clear by that evidence/argument that kaag (if town) doesn't think it could be egg/smith either. Which means he should be driving the wagon on YA for today. And just to be super clear: I'm 100% willing to listen on YA, and potentially solve the other half during lylo part deux.