Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[Almost50]

VOTE COUNT 1.3

SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (1) - UpTooLate
mhsmith0 (0) -
Aatami (0) -
Ryu Ogami (2) - Aatami, Aeronaut
heyboxgaminig (1) - KickAssAndGiggle
KickAssAndGiggle (0) -
UpTooLate (2) - YawningAngel, mhsmith0
Aeronaut (2) - SummerInWonderland, heyboxgaminig

Not Voting: Ryu Ogami

Activity Notes: Ryu Ogami has been prodded

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Monday, March 21st 2016 at 8:15 pm PDT or in (expired on 2016-03-21 20:15:00)

Here it is: Both scum starting the wagon on UTL, and I'm dead certain smith will jump off that wagon and stay out of it. I'll eat my shoes if he doesn't do that in the next few pages.

[mhsmith0]

Depends on definition of "few".
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7749119
Is where I moved to kaag (based on an admitted misread of him). The move to aero happened later on. And there was a YA vote in there too, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7753707

[Almost50]

Don't spoil my fun, please. I'm reading through with no spoilers. I'll get to that point when I get to it. Thank you.

[mhsmith0]

Fair enough.

[Almost50]

Some questions for the town about their reads (using spoilers since they're individual questions, but I'd certainly encourage people to read the other buttons too):

Spoiler: UTL

: You're currently voting for YA. Is that still your top read? If so, what separates him from Ryu and Aatami (your other scumreads)? Are you up for a lynch on any of the three or solidly on YA?

Spoiler: Aatami

: You're currently voting for Ryu. Is that still your top read? It's a Tuesday vote that has kind of just hung there since. Do you have thoughts on YA (your other scum read)? Or the back and forth between me, UTL and KAAG?

Spoiler: Aero

: You're currently voting for Ryu. Is that still your top read? You dropped in a vote for him back on Tuesday, and have largely been silent on him since. Also,

I don't really like that you're willfully taking a back seat and letting the rest of us jab at each other.

And what are your thoughts on the back and forth between me, UTL and KAAG?

Spoiler: KAAG

: You're currently voting for HBG. Is that still your top read? If so, what separates him from Ryu and Aatami (your other scumreads)? What are your thoughts on the back and forth between me, UTL and KAAG? You also said you'd take a look at UTL's last two newbie games. Have you done so? Links are
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
in case that's helpful

Spoiler: YawningAngel

: You're currently voting for UTL. Based on 173 it sounds like you're now town-reading her. Please unvote if my understanding of your perspective is correct; having people park their votes on slots they don't believe in lynching isn't productive. It sounds like your top three scum reads are Ryu, AA and HBG. It sounds like you'll be back on Tuesday, so please give us updated thoughts on those, as well as anyone else who may move up on your list, by then. Hopefully along with a vote or (if you're nervous about pushing too close to lynch point) a clear declaration of who you intend to vote, as well as why.

Spoiler: SummerInWonderland

: You're currently voting for Aero. Is that still your top read (117 suggested YA and Ryu were your other top reads, though that may have changed since)? If so, can you restate what is driving your case? If not, who is your current top read and why?

Spoiler: heyboxgaminig

: Take us through your thought process on your voting post of 103. It looked like you put forth a really cursory look at a couple players' posts. Why was that? And why haven't you come back since?

Spoiler: Ryu

Everyone else on the board has voted. Why haven't you voted yet? Who are your reads, either town, scum or both? You tossed up a FoS on YA back on Tuesday. Is that still your main read? If so why, and if not, who has moved up and why? Also, please respond to peoples' cases against you.

Check every spoiler, tell me what you see is common between them and point the odd one out.

[Almost50]

YawningAngel - has been pushing back on my demands for accountability, is explicitly asking for others to bless his work instead of owning his decisions and their consequences. I suspect this is more non-confident town than it is scum. I'm not opposed to finding out for sure though.

THIS, after your previous red-fonted wall about distancing techniques to prove you're not distancing with UTL? Well, I know you weren't bc UTL was TOWN.

[Almost50]

By posting wall-after-wall, and insisting loudly for everyone to answer your points over and over again on every little observation you make, you are making it

exceptionally easy

for scum to hide. Do you not see that? Your posts scream "Look at me me me me me!" Well, we will...and the scum will slip by.

And yet he's been climbing up your read list??????

[Almost50]

[quote="In post 245,

VOTE: UpTooLate

mhsmith0"]VOTE: KickAssAndGiggle[/quote]


It took him exactly 66 minutes to jump off the UTL wagon once he made sure somebody else took the bait!

[Almost50]

PPS To be clear, I now want a KAAG lynch. I would also be quite happy with a lynch of UTL. And I'd be willing to entertain a lynch of YA if anyone could wants to make a case, although I think it'd need to be a good one (my gut says "mislynch bait" instead of actual scum... but my gut could easily be wrong). I'd be less willing to entertain a D1 lynch for HBG's replacement and SIW, though I'm always willing to listen to good logic. For anyone else, you'd better make a heck of a case (or that person needs to accidentally out themselves as scum even more blatantly than KAAG just did).

Translation: I'm willing to lynch just about anyone, but I'll just squeeze in my partner in there and then say something that weakens that possibility in particular.

Sorry, Smith.. but you're 110% scum based on Yawn already being conf!scum to me.

[Almost50]

Possible scum, possible mislynch bait
YA - could be REALLY nervous newbie desperate to avoid accountability, or could be scum hiding behind that mask. I don't have a good intuitive read on this slot.

Scum reads
UTL - still reading her as scum. Some of the Aero stuff seemed convincing, and I do owe her a more serious look at things.
KAAG - I consider him self-outed scum at this point.

I love how you always keep your partner just outside the top 2 scum reads. If they flip for any given reason; you never called them town. In fact you were always suspicious of them. But why have you not pushed them all the way? Because we only have 2 scum and I had 2 stronger reads.

[Almost50]

I'm outed scum on D1...because I don't choose to engage in extensive debate with someone who uses the "False Dilemma" fallacy. Interesting theory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma

You are town, it is obvious. But you are town who is scum-leaning-or-more on 5 players, for reasons that all of which would be treated as comical outside of the Newbie queue. In a game with 2 scum.

Now I'm finding it ridiculously odd that you still town read Smith, tbh.

[Almost50]

Town wins by forming a town-bloc, not by finding reasons to scum-read that aren't there.

That's not accurate, and especially not in a beginners game. ONE bad read and you're working totally against your win-con while you think you're pushing the town for the win. In this game everyone is a suspect until proven innocent.

[Almost50]

Sorry town, sorry KAAG. Again, I'm an idiot.

No you're not, and no you're not. You're playing a very good scum game. You just couldn't have foreseen me replacing in

[Almost50]

Let's say I'm town. And you are town. And SIW is town. And Aeronaut is town. (Note: chosen hypothetically) And we ALL AGREE that the others are town. That is a town-bloc. The town-bloc will not vote for each other, because they agree they are all town. It then becomes impossible for scum to push an easy mislynch. In effect, scum have to push the "least towny" town, or bus each other.

Again: All it needs is someone as good as smith to infiltrate your so-called town-bloc and you'd be moving in circles just like how it went this game.

[Almost50]

@smith:

What happened to your case on your partner in 301?? Why aren't you revisiting that on D3 when you haven't caught one scum for 2 days?

[Almost50]

Guys, I;m totally losing my concentration (made it to page #18).

I'm still 100% certain it's a Yawn-Smith scum team though. I'm sold out on this one.

@KAAG: If I remind you of that game I replaced in on the final Day and hammered Titus, would that make you more inclined to sheep me or suspect me more?? If the former; you need to vote Yawn today. If the latter; God help the town cuz I can't anymore.

[SummerInWonderland]

Hey Almost50!
I am reading your posts
I will get to some of these later- I don't want to say anything until you are done going through everything!
all of your posts are very interesting :p
anyways I won't be posting until you are done and all caught up!

[mhsmith0]

Well, let us know if you're still there when you've finished the rest.
Also, I'm curious why you think a ya-kaag team is non plausible. Obviously MHS-kaag has been disproven since the two of us could have hammered you or YA even now.

[Almost50]

@Summer:

Thanks
I did take a short break to relief my mind and I'm back on it.

@smith:

1- because I'm town reading KAAG at this point. Bad reads, but town none-the -less.
2- because I think I'm on to your game here. Sitting comfortably in a globally town-read slot and making subtle pushes while distancing with your partner.
3- Speaking of distancing; I could've been fooled if I didn't know better. I know I'm town (mod confirmed that to me) and I know both myself and Yawn have been sitting on L-2, so one of us IS scum. Since it's not me then he is 100% scum. Now I'm reading with THAT in mind. I'm not looking for ways to figure everybody's alignment, as the only 2 I don't know their alignment by now are you and KAAG, so it's basically how you two posted, expressed yourselves, voted and interacted with the confirmed scum. Yours is indeed too obvious a link with YAWN at this time, but I'm going to read more just to satisfy my own curiosity as to how on earth you two managed to get this far.

[Almost50]

FWIW, I'm starting to come around on an Aero wagon. Re-reading him, I'm getting some BAD vibes. Will have more soon.

Like, is there someone you have NOT scum read in this game? Has there been a player you were not warming up to push later on? Yet you saw the seeds and the others water them to blossom, while you yourself try to find a safe place to park your vote on.

[Almost50]

So I'm still scum-reading YA, but despite my best efforst there has been no momentum there.

So instead I'm going to go after another slot that increasingly reads scummy to me: VOTE: Aeronaut

TYPICAL. You're still cum reading your partner but you prefer to vote elsewhere rather than push your read on them.

[Almost50]

Frankly Aero's whole approach wrt YA reads tactical. Votes for a bad reason, town reads for a bad reason, and votes me soon after I make my YA case (335 through 347 are his first appearance post YA vote). I can't tell if he's playing support for his scum buddy or is just trying to make it look like he's playing support for his scum buddy. Either way... yuck.

And setting someone to be linked with your partner just in case your partner gets lynched. If you so believed in SCUM YAWN, why didn't you push them instead? Hell, why aren't you voting them NOW?

[Almost50]

Excuse me, but after reading your 438 I couldn't resist the urge to spoiler myself and look who got NK'd on N1, and -surprise surprise- it WAS the Aeronaut slot. Now the only thing that I might consider this NOT as important as it might be is I find that they got replaced before the day ended, so Thor might've had different reads (I will see). Yet again, getting rid of the IC who must've -at least- given their predecessor's reads some consideration, and the WIFOM it creates (why would I shoot Thor? It was Aero who suspected us both..) kind of thing makes it a perfect choice still IMHO.

Back to page #18 though

[SummerInWonderland]

so comes into game saying Smith is scum and focuses on that while not pondering on the option of KAAG being scum.
for ???? reasons???
:/ er okay

anyways! keep going :p

[mhsmith0]

I definitely don't want to spoil you at this point, would be no fun at all

Ps @summer: I'm actually finding this interesting. If nothing else it's getting a fresh look at the game state, even if his conclusions about me are (currently) wrong.