Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Tarhalindur]

I tried to get up this post yesterday, but I was prevented by doing so by the quicklynch (which I don't believe was an accident - I think that Thok knew exactly what he was doing, for reasons I'll explain below).

From my perspective, Thok and Akbar pretty much have to be the wolves by process of elimination. Here's the reasoning:

There are probably two remaining wolves: there cannot be three surviving wolves, since the game isn't over; I find it very hard to believe that there are fewer than three wolves, given the size of the game; and I see no dead players outside MoS whose role is consistent with being a wolf.

I know that I'm not scum. This is, from my perspective, beyond debate.

Upon further review, I believe that I was mistaken yesteday, and that the surviving masons can't be scum - the death scene for the dead ESE member doesn't make sense if he's scum, the ESE members have claimed mod confirmation, and if the masons were scum they would probably have speedlynched yesterday.

That means that it's almost certain that two of {Thok, Akbar, thAdmiral} are wolves. Of these three, thAdmiral is the least likely to be scum, IMO - his claim is corroborated by Kison (who also claimed mod confirmation), and I have difficulty seeing the wolves get access to the most powerful role in the game given the apparent power of the Mafia.

If thAdmiral is, in fact, town, then Akbar is almost certainly scum, possibly scum Doc. I find it extremely difficult to believe that we have a mason group with an incredibly good investigative ability and a doctor in the same game - frankly, I think that the witch-masons were intended to compensate for the lack of a doctor (and standard cop).

This leaves Thok as scum by PoE. As support to this, note that his claimed ability is fairly standard on scum, and also note the ease with which he seems to be picking up on scum mechanics in this game (I'm reminded of Space Monkeys Mafia, where Glork-scum confirmed the core mechanic of the game shortly after PJ speculated about it).

This implies a setup with 4 mostly-vanilla Mafia, 3 wolves with power roles, and a moderately powerful town. This makes a lot of sense to me - look at PS2 mafia, which had a very similar setup (4 mostly-vanilla Nintendo mafia vs. 3 Microsoft mafia with power roles - if I'm right, the big difference is that this game lacks an SK, which is made up for by the partial-reveal mechanic and a somewhat lower town power level).

The big fly in the ointment is thAdmiral. I want to hear his results now, since it's relevant for my analysis.

[Thok]

Your balance arguments ignore the existance of wolf daykills. Those by themselves do a decent job in boosting the power of the wolf group. Those by themselves allow for the wolves to deal with the doc/mason tracker problems.

If Akbar and I were the wolves, why would we take the risk of killing Night 5, when we would likely be watched?

(Note there's only two people alive the above argument doesn't apply too: ThAdmiral, who wouldn't be afraid of being watched, and Tarhalidur, who may not have known all the roles as a replcement.)

Why would we have left ThAdmiral alive for so long? Why would we have killed Lowell, rather than any of The Fonz/Fritzler/ThAdmiral?

[Thok]

This leaves Thok as scum by PoE. As support to this, note that his claimed ability is fairly standard on scum, and also note the ease with which he seems to be picking up on scum mechanics in this game (I'm reminded of Space Monkeys Mafia, where Glork-scum confirmed the core mechanic of the game shortly after PJ speculated about it).

Oh, a Thok knows too much argument. There's a special level of hell reserved for people who use this. Would you like me to show the various pieces of logic I've used to deduce the scum mechanics? Or to show you situations where I've made even more mysterious leaps of deduction as town. (Make me discuss Calvin and Hobbes. I dare you.)

Incidentally, I'd like you to explain why you were "asking permission" to lynch Setael yesterday while at the same time claiming to be worried about the existence of a clearly more dangerous threat. Why wasn't the more dangerous threat your concern yesterday?

[ThAdmiral]

Thok and akbar out tonight.

[ThAdmiral]

As in last night.

[The Fonz]

I can't buy Thok as wolf. I just can't. N9V basically confirmed the flavour with his 'drunk guy stumbled into me' statement after being RBed. Not 'a drunk, hairy creature with massive teeth stumbled into me.' Mafia-aligned was an outside possibility. Wolf is not.

[Akbar]

@Tarhalindur
Is scumdoc even a real role? What would they protect against besides Vigilantes?

Anyhow, these are the people the witches said were out on night 2:
Night Two : ~N9V~, Akbar, bird1111, Mastermind of Sin, Shanba, Thok

Both scum groups had a person out: bird1111(Mafia) & Mastermind of Sin(Wolf)

[The Fonz]

@Tarhalindur
Is scumdoc even a real role? What would they protect against besides Vigilantes?

Anyhow, these are the people the witches said were out on night 2:
Night Two : ~N9V~, Akbar, bird1111, Mastermind of Sin, Shanba, Thok

Rival scumgroups?

Both scum groups had a person out: bird1111(Mafia) & Mastermind of Sin(Wolf)

That only proves that you did not kill that night, not that you are town-aligned. It is generally sensible for scumdocs to protect every night, in order to look like town docs.

That said, I think the most likely explanation is that the wolves were not

just

wolves- they had day jobs, and came up as those if they died during the day.

[Akbar]

So your suggesting the scum groups were given multiple actions per night? That'd be a pretty unfair set up.

[The Fonz]

Um, multiple actions per night is not remotely unfair. Scum power roles are pretty darn common- and I'd say it were more likely there are, or at least were, some, in this game than your average game, given how much town power there is.

If every claimed power role is telling the truth, this game is ridiculously unbalanced in the town's favour.

[Thok]

I really can't see a good option for who are remaining wolves other than loneTarhalindurWolf. The only options that even come close to working for me are that the ESE's are actually wolves, and I don't see it. (There are things about Akbar's claim that makes me believe he isn't lying about it; specifically the fact that he's a village healer and not a town healer.)

I sort of like The Fonz's "Wolves have day jobs" argument, but in that case I find it more likely that mneme was a baker/wolf than Akbar being wolf. (mneme's role fits best with a day job/wolf theme: I find it hard to believe that a retired cop or a silversmith is a wolf, for example, and most of the other dead people have claimed power roles.)

That said, if Tarhalindur is lynched and the game isn't over and I'm not day-killed, I'll probably be blocking Akbar, as no other roleblock makes sense in that scenario.

This game being unbalanced doesn't actually bug me that much. The other Phoebus game running concurrent with this game (Wolves in New York) was also unbalanced for the town, and I think there's a lot of millerish stuff that could lead to mislynches we've mostly avoided getting caught up with.

I still think Tarhalindur is the only player alive who was likely to kill Lowell Night 5.

vote Tarhalindur

(You may want to wait for a vote count before voting, just so tht you can verify that I don't have a double vote today.)

[Akbar]

You can block me if you want. I kept the power role I identified alive up to this point. So I'm not really that important any more. I believe Tarhalindur to be the only remaining scum as well. Everyone else has a somewhat supported claim at this point. We are likely so far ahead that we can't lose unless there is 2 scum left. Tarhalindur, Thok and TheAdmiral don't really seem connected. So that leaves ESE. If they turn out to be scummers, then we're at Lylo. If we mislynch, and get nightkilled, the morning would leave us 2 on 2. Game over.

[The Fonz]

I sort of like The Fonz's "Wolves have day jobs" argument, but in that case I find it more likely that mneme was a baker/wolf than Akbar being wolf. (mneme's role fits best with a day job/wolf theme: I find it hard to believe that a retired cop or a silversmith is a wolf, for example, and most of the other dead people have claimed power roles.)

That said, if Tarhalindur is lynched and the game isn't over and I'm not day-killed, I'll probably be blocking Akbar, as no other roleblock makes sense in that scenario.

Precisely. I'm not saying Akbar

is

scum- I think the balance of probabilities say he's not, and Tar is our last scumbag. I'm saying that if lynching Tar doesn't end the game, as I

know

Fritzler is town, I would lynch Akbar over Thok or ThAdmiral.

Will vote Tar, pending votecount.

[Mr. Flay]

First Vote Count of Day Eight:

1: Tarhalindur (Thok)

5: Not Voting (The Fonz, ThAdmiral, Akbar, Tarhalindur, Fritzler)

With six alive, it will take four votes to lynch.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Tarhalindur

[Fritzler]

vote: tar

go go go hammer

[Thok]

Poke. Does somebody who's not me or a claimed mason want to post?

(Tarhalindur, in particular, has made over 50 posts in various games other than this one since his last post here. Akbar and ThAdmiral haven't posted in this game for a while, but they haven't posted in any games in MS for a while.)

[ThAdmiral]

As you know I haven't been following the game from the beginning, so I don't have as much of a feel for all of the players as you do. From what I can tell the masons look good to me, and I also find it hard to see thok as scum. So if you think tar is the best bet I trust you.

vote: tarhalindur

[Mr. Flay]

Last Vote Count of Day Eight:

4: Tarhalindur (Thok, The Fonz, Fritzler, ThAdmiral)

2: Not Voting (Akbar, Tarhalindur)

---

Tarhalindur's death brings little light and even less joy to the town's fortunes. It appears that he was naught but a humble blacksmith, and a good citizen of the town.

Tarhalindur - Blacksmith - Lynched - Day 8

It is now Night 8; please get choices to me by the end of Wednesday, Oct. 17th.

[Mr. Flay]

You all wake to find that you all wake. Curious at the implications, you go out in the town square to decide what your next course of action will be...

No one died Night 6.

It is now Day Nine; with 5 alive, 3 votes will be enough to lynch.

[Thok]

ThAdmiral, what happened last night?

[The Fonz]

Hmmm. We

could

be in LyLo, though it's doubtful. I have a hard time seeing two of the three non-masons as scum.

Thok's claimed power is a more common scum one, but we have the issue of Reyo's breadcrumbing and N9V to deal with. (Though, Thok, would you be so kind as to inform us of your thought process in blocking a claimed cop?)

Akbar, though, seems entirely plausible as scum to this point.

[Thok]

Thok's claimed power is a more common scum one, but we have the issue of Reyo's breadcrumbing and N9V to deal with. (Though, Thok, would you be so kind as to inform us of your thought process in blocking a claimed cop?)

Akbar, though, seems entirely plausible as scum to this point.

XReyo was the person who blocked the claimed cop. I can't explain his reasoning, although I'll note that it happened after N9V claimed IH was scum, got IH lynched, and IH came up something that didn't appear to me (and still doesn't appear to be) a scum role.

I'm holding back my thoughts on who is scum or not until I hear about night actions.

[Thok]

Also, I'd prefer if people didn't vote until people reveal their nightchoices and I get to have my say.

[Thok]

Actually, I've changed my mind a bit. Here's a few thoughts.

1. There's a fairly compelling reason why I can't be part of a two person scum team (it's not 100% foolproof, but it's there. This reason also applies to me in particular.)

2. If people are going to be suggesting that Akbar is scum, I'd actually like to hear reasons for it. I will not accept "Akbar plays by gut/doesn't seem to use logic" as a reason, as I feel that's an Akbar playstyle-tell and not a sign of whether or not he is scummy. I also don't feel "Akbar was suspicious of the ESE" is a good reason either, as I feel that there was decent reason for the non-masons to be suspicious of the ESE.

3. I've been neglegent with this, but I'd like to hear first names from the ESE members and ThAdmiral.