New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!


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Post Post #1675 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:41 am

Post by copper223 »

In post 1665, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Ok. Did you form enough of a personality read to make an assessment of what that reaction meant before he replaced out? Clearly I thought the question was suspect when you asked it given Robert had not even posted and IAI was basically a ghost … I didn’t think you could possibly get any meaning ful reaction with those facts in play.
Yes, his game plan from when he started posting had been to AtE the other player (or the player base in general), which he later turned to buddying when I started to press my scumread, I was expecting one of those two to continue and possibly give something away in the process but he instead ignored the question.

I doubt logical arguments like the lack of participation in the game from 2 of the 4 players in the list, which you believe to be a factor in his reaction, would change it.
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Post Post #1676 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:42 am

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yes but if I'm wrong about pers suddenly that difinitively makes me scum which is wrong and ridiculous to me. it sets up for a mislynch we may not be able to afford.

why do you feel lynching outside the hood is better?
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Post Post #1677 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:43 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

^ that was in response to Zakk. didn't get any pedits on mobile
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Post Post #1678 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:46 am

Post by copper223 »

@Titus
1/4 makes sense for a lot of reasons design-wise but those are not the odds of hitting scum.

In Gumball someone was quoting a TTH game where Kagami played well by recognizing the whole neighborhood was town, I'll have to check if cakez was part of that one when not on the phone.
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Post Post #1679 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:49 am

Post by Titus »

In post 1676, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:yes but if I'm wrong about pers suddenly that difinitively makes me scum which is wrong and ridiculous to me. it sets up for a mislynch we may not be able to afford.

why do you feel lynching outside the hood is better?
You're not getting mislynched if I have anything to say about it. If you're getting lynched, it's because you're scum. I think the push on you is shit and I have you as hard town.
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Post Post #1680 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:50 am

Post by copper223 »

@Zakk
In post 1629, zakk wrote:Before he answers, I have opinions on this, but I want to know what you think the answer is
If there is no real conviction behind it scum_persi is playing the: idgaf lynch me card because that's against his alignment so he would normally only do so as ticked off town, in an effort to WIFOM us into town reading him.

If he is town he is doing so out of frustration with how the game is going and I don't think it's a good idea.
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Post Post #1681 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:55 am

Post by Persivul »

In post 1673, Titus wrote:So which one is it Persy?
Just a mistake. The more recent should read town!Titus. A you said yourself: "The only way for it to be strategically advantageous to lynch outside the hood is if you're supposing 6 scum in the game." So, I'm as strong a scumread as any you have, and I'm in the hood. You should have been on me. And no, you haven't been pushing me all game. You put an OMGUS scum read on me after I started questioning you, but you haven't pushed at all. Just the opposite - you've fought to stay on TBG and NOT push me.
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Post Post #1682 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:56 am

Post by zakk »

In post 1669, Titus wrote:
In post 1666, zakk wrote:
In post 1630, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:This page looks more like town for Zakk.

Even though he's still drastically wrong about me.
if pers turns out to be scum you have nothing to worry about. his lynch is not a great idea though.

and personally i think lynching from within the neighborhood and hoping to hit scum is a terrible idea.

i'd much rather lynch someone outside the hood.
Why? The neighborhood has, provided the wiki theory is accurate, 1/4 odds of hitting scum
at worst
. Then there's presumably lower odds in the rest of the game. With 4/5 in 17. 4/17 = worse. The only way for it to be strategically advantageous to lynch outside the hood is if you're supposing 6 scum in the game.
yeah that makes sense on one level, but i don't play mafia to play a random number generator

also i don't particularly want to lynch anyone in the hood
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Post Post #1683 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:57 am

Post by zakk »

In post 1680, copper223 wrote:@Zakk
In post 1629, zakk wrote:Before he answers, I have opinions on this, but I want to know what you think the answer is
If there is no real conviction behind it scum_persi is playing the: idgaf lynch me card because that's against his alignment so he would normally only do so as ticked off town, in an effort to WIFOM us into town reading him.

If he is town he is doing so out of frustration with how the game is going and I don't think it's a good idea.
in my opinion that is 100% against persivul's M.O. as town, so that would be a really stupid play
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Post Post #1684 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:59 am

Post by Titus »

In post 1680, copper223 wrote:@Zakk
In post 1629, zakk wrote:Before he answers, I have opinions on this, but I want to know what you think the answer is
If there is no real conviction behind it scum_persi is playing the: idgaf lynch me card because that's against his alignment so he would normally only do so as ticked off town, in an effort to WIFOM us into town reading him.

If he is town he is doing so out of frustration with how the game is going and I don't think it's a good idea.
If you think Persivul is scum, you should join us on Persivul. He's scum, plus the wagon is all town (fmpov).
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Post Post #1685 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 6:01 am

Post by Persivul »

In post 870, Titus wrote:Persivul is scum for repeatedly taking things out of context and straining to firm arguments. He's white knighting/hard defending ETL at the moment which is awkward as crap. For instance, he's been focused on having it be ok for ETL to jump on my wagon with no reason that fits the current game state. Just reread the last few pages and you'll get the idea.
This is your first reason given for scum reading me - hard defending ETL. You now have ETL as a full town read...
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Post Post #1686 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 6:01 am

Post by Titus »

In post 1681, Persivul wrote:
In post 1673, Titus wrote:So which one is it Persy?
Just a mistake. The more recent should read town!Titus. A you said yourself: "The only way for it to be strategically advantageous to lynch outside the hood is if you're supposing 6 scum in the game." So, I'm as strong a scumread as any you have, and I'm in the hood. You should have been on me. And no, you haven't been pushing me all game. You put an OMGUS scum read on me after I started questioning you, but you haven't pushed at all. Just the opposite - you've fought to stay on TBG and NOT push me.
This is many levels of wrong. I've asked people that if they don't agree on TBG to join on my other reads. You are included. This is basic trying to scumpaint the obvious fact that I don't have 5 votes.
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Post Post #1687 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 6:02 am

Post by Titus »

In post 1685, Persivul wrote:
In post 870, Titus wrote:Persivul is scum for repeatedly taking things out of context and straining to firm arguments. He's white knighting/hard defending ETL at the moment which is awkward as crap. For instance, he's been focused on having it be ok for ETL to jump on my wagon with no reason that fits the current game state. Just reread the last few pages and you'll get the idea.
This is your first reason given for scum reading me - hard defending ETL. You now have ETL as a full town read...
Right. That's not OMGUS. Your white knight of ETL was scummy. The main reason I doubted my ETL read was Zakk misrepping to wagon her. You're basically just trying to rehash the entire thread again.
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Post Post #1688 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 6:48 am

Post by copper223 »

VOTE: Persivul
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Post Post #1689 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 6:55 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

In post 181, copper223 wrote:@Seth
Alternatively you can tell me which one, if any, of {Robert [Persivul], I am Innocent [liger], Magma} is also scum.
This makes me think I might be wrong on copper. Pers is almost certainly the scum in the group if any exist.
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Post Post #1690 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 7:02 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

In post 593, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Floating, disconnected Killthestory is scum killthestory. Posts like 380 are symptoms of that particular malady that we can cure with rope.
Magna
do you still think this applies? What are your current feelings about KTS?
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Post Post #1691 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 7:49 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

In post 596, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 558, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Also, Egg - I don't particularly find the peacemaker routine a town-thing generally.
1. Do you find it a scum tell?
I do, especially this early on in the game. Town sometimes try to get people to gel together more as their reads solidify and become more certain. But so early in the day, in a
large game
, wrt to players he's given no read on, it's pretty spectacularly suspicious to me to try to "calm to ocean" so to speak.

Additionally, and really more to the point, I've seen scum try to play peacemaker in order to appear as though they are "acting in the best interest of town". I've done it myself. It's rarely ever been a town thing this early on.
2. Do you think Egg’s ISO is anything but Town trying to find scum?
I have answered this since it was asked, but obviously I do think he is scum trying not to make waves.

(Sorry if late replies on this stuff - I'm going through ISOs as I have time. On Magna currently.)
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Post Post #1692 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:03 am

Post by zakk »

In post 1684, Titus wrote:
In post 1680, copper223 wrote:@Zakk
In post 1629, zakk wrote:Before he answers, I have opinions on this, but I want to know what you think the answer is
If there is no real conviction behind it scum_persi is playing the: idgaf lynch me card because that's against his alignment so he would normally only do so as ticked off town, in an effort to WIFOM us into town reading him.

If he is town he is doing so out of frustration with how the game is going and I don't think it's a good idea.
If you think Persivul is scum, you should join us on Persivul. He's scum, plus the wagon is all town (fmpov).
you have no way of knowing any of that unless you're scum
+
no
+
you said it was scummy for me to campaign for ETL's lynch and now you're doing the exact same thing
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Post Post #1693 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:04 am

Post by zakk »

this should come into play at some point too

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at least for posterity, a snapshot of this moment in time
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Post Post #1694 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:07 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

In post 1670, Titus wrote:I'll take the top half and search multiball, you take the bottom half?
Sure. May not get to it until tomorrow.
In post 1671, Persivul wrote:copper/liger - one of these is scum
In post 1672, Persivul wrote:@copper:
In post 1628, zakk wrote:but if pers is town is town then I feel even more confident in ETL scum
This is why I'm cool with a lynch. I think there are clear associatives to be drawn.
Wait. So you are saying you are Town and cool with being lynched for associatives. And relaying this to Copper who has (I don’t recall a read from you on his slot recently) a 50/50 shot at being scum?
In post 1678, copper223 wrote:@Titus
1/4 makes sense for a lot of reasons design-wise but those are not the odds of hitting scum.

In Gumball someone was quoting a TTH game where Kagami played well by recognizing the whole neighborhood was town, I'll have to check if cakez was part of that one when not on the phone.
Um wasn’t the Firebringer who was the Neighborizor in that game scum?
In post 1690, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Magna do you still think this applies? What are your current feelings about KTS?
Yes. I do. And I’m so damn tired of people giving him and his herp a derp posting a pass for “tone”.
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Post Post #1695 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:15 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

One of the reasons I really think Liger is town, beyond their other posting, is the neighborhood reveal.

First of all, if Liger were scum, they probably would have been informed by their team mates if there were other neighborhoods in existence. Instead he acted as though everyone had one. This was an assumption made with no other information available, because if he'd had additional information, he probably wouldn't have gone about it the way he did.

Second, I think a mafia neighbor would be more likely to try to gain towncred by "keeping the town's interest" in not revealing the information. The fact that the PT is only open at night mitigates this somewhat, but not by a lot, in that there has not been an opportunity for any possible scum to show this. However, since the members knew who the others were, a combined ISO of all 4 may be beneficial to see if there were any hints at this kind of thing to the others. In any case, the fact remains that his immediate open revelation about it means the scenario doesn't exist in Liger's case.

There was a third but I got distracted by work and I lost my train of thought. I'll come back to this later.

I basically want to look at the neighborhood really closely because it
does
give me a sense of direction in such a large game and I do think it's a good place to start. Of course there's the possibility that all 4 are town, and I fully acknowledge that, but I believes it's more likely there's at least one mafia in there.

@magna - If there's multiple teams, then perhaps the idea of more than 1 anti-town member of the hood is possible but I think that's more of an outside theory at this point, since we don't have any indication one way or the other, but even that scenario means there is
at least
one
anti-town in the hood. considering the existence of at least one is reasonable at the moment and something we can work on deducing.
In post 604, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 212, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:EBWOP: to clarify - i only got through about 4 people in pre-game rsearch before i got bored, and shotty's tell was the most solid, so i ISO'd him to see if it was here, and it is.
Who else did you meta research?

Have you ever done this as Town before?
I gave my notes earlier, but as for doing this as town before and showing it in-game, the only one that I know of for sure happened was as CatBug, a hydra of me and Sthar8. (It might also have been the hydra with his brother but I'm 90% sure it was catbug). They gave me shit for it there too.

And honestly, rereading your ISO kind of makes me mad about the whole "Titus coaching Ircher" thing because first of all, it absolutely read as coaching, and absolutely coaching happens in games where scum do not have daytalk. My thinking on it went like this: "Why is she telling him what to do? Do they have some kind of outside connection? If they are scum together, it could be coaching, which means scum probably don't have daytalk." I voiced my opinions, mentioned that it depended on the existence or lack of daytalk, and also that it changed my read on Ircher if Titus was scum. So I voted Titus and people went all "BLEEEEH WHY YOU VOTE TITUS AND NOT IRCHER" which still makes no fucking sense to me since ircher's alignment in that scenario depended on Titus being scum which would give credence to the coaching issue in the first place. I do not understand why anyone had such a hard time following that line of thinking. Whether a person agrees or not is one thing but to be all "that means you're scum because I disagree with your conclusions" that's so dumb to me.
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Post Post #1696 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:17 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

In post 1694, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Yes. I do. And I’m so damn tired of people giving him and his herp a derp posting a pass for “tone”.
I'm not giving him a pass. I think the "tone" thing is irrelevant to alignment. My issue is that his entire ISO tells me almost nothing and I kind of don't like it.
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Post Post #1697 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:19 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

Zakk - what are you trying to explain with the activity overview? What are your conclusions?
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Post Post #1698 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:19 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

i.e. - what was the point of posting that?
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Post Post #1699 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:26 am

Post by EspeciallyTheLies »

In post 608, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Your serious contention is that scum-partners in a Large game decided that the best course of action Day 1 is to immediately come into the thread and hard distance with frankly stupid conten
OO. OO. this actually happened, but it worked in that case. it was jake from state farm (iirc) and ... fuck now I cant remember his name. something with a d. anyway, it was AP's house party micro with majiffy and i was in it too and maybe titus was in it. but anyway the thing that happened was jake and this other person were at each other's throats from the get-go. and they won because everyone was all dumb "hurr it's tvt it's tvt" and they ended up being buddies.
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