Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[shaft.ed]

Vollkan... if I'm completely honest with you, I didn't read your numbers.

You've failed to convince me that originality isn't scum. He killed carrotcake, got found out by a tracker, and needs to hang. That's basically the bottom line for me.

I just want to lynch a scum. If people choose to listen to your defense of orig, then more fool them. We'll just lynch Korlash instead.

dybeck you obviously aren't listening to any of our points. That's why you're so stubborn with the orig lynch. Let me say this again for you.

If originality is mafia the SK

MUST

kill him tonight or he is effectively endgamed. You have said

multiple

times now that originality is very likely to be mafia, if scum, so you really need to come to grips with this point.

Whether orig is the SK or vig makes no difference to the mafia, and a killing role is a greater threat than anything else that has already been exposed.

[dybeck]

Really? You're accepting my point that originality is probably mafia because of the way he's being backed up by his scummates?

[shaft.ed]

No I'm saying if you are so sure he is mafia then you should also account for the fact he is certain to be NK'd.

[Elias_the_thief]

Whether orig is the SK or vig makes no difference to the mafia, and a killing role is a greater threat than anything else that has already been exposed.

Except for the fact that this allows them to let him live, get the kill on Aly, the only other protown role revealed (or some other random person, depending on the wifom game they'll play), and count on us to lynch Orig in the morning for surviving the night. This is the problem I see with it anyhow. It's putting too much reliance on the mafias kill.

[Gemelli]

Except for the fact that this allows them to let him live, get the kill on Aly, the only other protown role revealed (or some other random person, depending on the wifom game they'll play), and count on us to lynch Orig in the morning for surviving the night. This is the problem I see with it anyhow. It's putting too much reliance on the mafias kill.

The problem with that line of reasoning, though, is:

(1) If originality is mafia, lynching him will not stop the mafia from making an NK tonight -- they will target AlyG regardless of whether orig lives or dies. Regardless of who the SK kills at this point -- and he/she has no incentive to help the mafia out by passing on the night action -- we will have two NKs, and will know for sure that originality is (or was) mafia.
(2) If originality is NOT mafia, the mafia has no way of knowing whether he's a SK or a vig. So if we don't lynch him, and they target AlyG tonight, there will be an NK that is not controlled by the mafia on N3.

[Korlash]

Ok I'll give a little comment on the goings on right now, still haven't gotten up to snuff with the full thread yet though...

From what I have read/understand theres some big Orig discussion. The way I see it is, if he is mafia, then the actual Vig will kill him tonight. if he is a vig, then he has a chance to kill a mafia tonight. So either way it looks to me a good idea to keep him alive... But I may change my mind come another... 400 posts under my belt... ^^'

[Elias_the_thief]

The problem with that line of reasoning, though, is:
(1) If originality is mafia, lynching him will not stop the mafia from making an NK tonight -- they will target AlyG regardless of whether orig lives or dies. Regardless of who the SK kills at this point -- and he/she has no incentive to help the mafia out by passing on the night action -- we will have two NKs, and will know for sure that originality is (or was) mafia.

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

(2) If originality is NOT mafia, the mafia has no way of knowing whether he's a SK or a vig. So if we don't lynch him, and they target AlyG tonight, there will be an NK that is not controlled by the mafia on N3.

I dont see a disadvantage to scum here. Vig/SK kills rarely actually hit scum, simply because town greatly outnumbers scum. This seems to be something scum would want, at least for one night.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #27!

dybeck (2) - originality, Korlash
Korlash (1) - Gemelli
originality (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, vollkan, shaft.ed, AlyG, Elias_the_Thief

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Day 2 Deadline: November 1

[Korlash]

Oh oh oh..

Unvote:

My bad >.>

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

Then again... there is also a possibility come tomorrow there are two less mafia... We could go ahead and lynch the vig meaning we are guaranteed to be short two town and still have the... what is it? Three? Mafia... Its 3 right... I just seems odd to me that anyone would think killing a town power role would be a good choice right now...

[vollkan]

Vollkan... if I'm completely honest with you, I didn't read your numbers.

You've failed to convince me that originality isn't scum. He killed carrotcake, got found out by a tracker, and needs to hang. That's basically the bottom line for me.

I just want to lynch a scum. If people choose to listen to your defense of orig, then more fool them.

We'll just lynch Korlash instead.

*headdesks*
You can't be serious.

The CC argument of yours has been shot down again and again. The numbers I gave further this point by highlighting that your stance is anti-town. I also really do not like the casual "just lynch Korlash" ending.

Except for the fact that this allows them to let him live, get the kill on Aly, the only other protown role revealed (or some other random person, depending on the wifom game they'll play), and count on us to lynch Orig in the morning for surviving the night. This is the problem I see with it anyhow. It's putting too much reliance on the mafias kill.

No. You miss how this works.

If Orig is Vig

Orig will not NK. Mafia will NK him or AlyG

If Orig is SK

Orig will probably not NK (his own death is guaranteed if he does). Mafia will NK him or AlyG

If Orig is Mafia

Orig will NK AlyG. The SK will NK Orig.

The problem with that line of reasoning, though, is:

(1) If originality is mafia, lynching him will not stop the mafia from making an NK tonight -- they will target AlyG regardless of whether orig lives or dies. Regardless of who the SK kills at this point -- and he/she has no incentive to help the mafia out by passing on the night action -- we will have two NKs, and will know for sure that originality is (or was) mafia.
(2) If originality is NOT mafia, the mafia has no way of knowing whether he's a SK or a vig. So if we don't lynch him, and they target AlyG tonight, there will be an NK that is not controlled by the mafia on N3.

This is true as well.

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

Why does it make a nonmafia lynch tomorrow certain?

When he isn't dead tomorrow we simply scumhunt as normal (unless he has NKed). I don't see the problem. The two nks thing is a non-issue because, if Orig has not NKed on N2, it means we can control him again (either to make a kill or to refrain).

I dont see a disadvantage to scum here. Vig/SK kills rarely actually hit scum, simply because town greatly outnumbers scum. This seems to be something scum would want, at least for one night.

No. If we lynch today, keeping Orig alive gives the prospect of having all mafia eliminated by N3 (low prospect, but it is a real threat to them).

Elias, I just proved numerically that lynching Orig is a terrible idea. If he is mafia, it will only be as helpful to us most likely as a mislynch. If he is SK or Vig we are in LYLO. Our best bet is to lynch a mafioso today. If we stuff up, our situation will likely only be as bad as if we had lynched mafOrig anyway.

Thus, your position is wholly wrong. PLEASE do not do a dybeck and just ignore us.

[Elias_the_thief]

Vollkan... if I'm completely honest with you, I didn't read your numbers.

You've failed to convince me that originality isn't scum. He killed carrotcake, got found out by a tracker, and needs to hang. That's basically the bottom line for me.

I just want to lynch a scum. If people choose to listen to your defense of orig, then more fool them.

We'll just lynch Korlash instead.

*headdesks*
You can't be serious.

The CC argument of yours has been shot down again and again. The numbers I gave further this point by highlighting that your stance is anti-town. I also really do not like the casual "just lynch Korlash" ending.

Agreed.

Except for the fact that this allows them to let him live, get the kill on Aly, the only other protown role revealed (or some other random person, depending on the wifom game they'll play), and count on us to lynch Orig in the morning for surviving the night. This is the problem I see with it anyhow. It's putting too much reliance on the mafias kill.

No. You miss how this works.

If Orig is Vig

Orig will not NK. Mafia will NK him or AlyG

If Orig is SK

Orig will probably not NK (his own death is guaranteed if he does). Mafia will NK him or AlyG

If Orig is Mafia

Orig will NK AlyG. The SK will NK Orig.

It still relies on all scum acting as predicted, but I did miss your main point apparently.

The problem with that line of reasoning, though, is:

(1) If originality is mafia, lynching him will not stop the mafia from making an NK tonight -- they will target AlyG regardless of whether orig lives or dies. Regardless of who the SK kills at this point -- and he/she has no incentive to help the mafia out by passing on the night action -- we will have two NKs, and will know for sure that originality is (or was) mafia.
(2) If originality is NOT mafia, the mafia has no way of knowing whether he's a SK or a vig. So if we don't lynch him, and they target AlyG tonight, there will be an NK that is not controlled by the mafia on N3.

This is true as well.

Pretty sure I addressed this

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

Why does it make a nonmafia lynch tomorrow certain?

Orig not showing up dead makes me pretty sure he's scum. I doubt mafia would play the wifom game on whether theres a cop to protect Aly or not.

When he isn't dead tomorrow we simply scumhunt as normal (unless he has NKed). I don't see the problem. The two nks thing is a non-issue because, if Orig has not NKed on N2, it means we can control him again (either to make a kill or to refrain).

I do not agree with controlling a role taht we are unsure of. If he is SK, he will certainly betray us when we are close to LYLO, forcing us to kill scum instead of him.

I dont see a disadvantage to scum here. Vig/SK kills rarely actually hit scum, simply because town greatly outnumbers scum. This seems to be something scum would want, at least for one night.

No. If we lynch today, keeping Orig alive gives the prospect of having all mafia eliminated by N3 (low prospect, but it is a real threat to them).

with the kill in the hands of Orig...

Elias, I just proved numerically that lynching Orig is a terrible idea. If he is mafia, it will only be as helpful to us most likely as a mislynch. If he is SK or Vig we are in LYLO. Our best bet is to lynch a mafioso today. If we stuff up, our situation will likely only be as bad as if we had lynched mafOrig anyway.

I've already backed down from lynching Orig. I just pointed to a possible flaw in your logic and you all got up in arms about it.

Thus, your position is wholly wrong. PLEASE do not do a dybeck and just ignore us.

My

position

? Is this a debate now? All I did was point out a flaw in your logic. Did I put my vote on Orig? No. You sure got pissed off over nothing there...

[vollkan]

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

Why does it make a nonmafia lynch tomorrow certain?

Orig not showing up dead makes me pretty sure he's scum. I doubt mafia would play the wifom game on whether theres a

cop

to protect Aly or not.

That doesn't really answer my question about it making nonmafia lynch certain.

Also, I assume you meant doc when you wrote cop.

Now, addressing your latest post:
I don't get your logic here. If Orig is mafia, then the SK will need to NK him to have a hope. Thus, mafOrig is dead by D3 anyway.

If Orig is SK/Vig, then there is a chance that the mafia might not NK him (if they want to risk going for AlyG) but it doesn't prove he is scum by any means.

When he isn't dead tomorrow we simply scumhunt as normal (unless he has NKed). I don't see the problem. The two nks thing is a non-issue because, if Orig has not NKed on N2, it means we can control him again (either to make a kill or to refrain).

I do not agree with controlling a role taht we are unsure of. If he is SK, he will certainly betray us when we are close to LYLO, forcing us to kill scum instead of him.

This is true, but I don't think it has any bearing on the fact that the most advantageous strategy for us is not to lynch Orig today

[Korlash]

Ok I'm done for the night... Tired and stuff...
But I feel I should give what I have now, that way I A) Don't forget them, and B) You guys can just answer them now instead of waiting until I get to it come page 38 or so...

Big Issue:

As of this very second... I would vote Volkan based on three of his past posts I find/deem weird and/or suspicious. Note that not being caught up means I may be missing something and this should in no way be taken as my official opinion... just my thoughts as of now...

First in Post 487, He lists his "Mafioso list" he goes on to say he leaves off Orig and AlyG because of roleclaims. I can agree with this... What I cannot agree with is him saying "Shaft.ed appears protown so I will not consider him for a lynch" And then follow it up by concluding "So 3 out of the 5 on the list are the mafia!"

I cannot overlook someone trying to push another's innocents by conveniently overlooking them. There is no reason not to suspect Shaft.ed... at least none I see... You may concider him protown, think he is protown, have strong feelings, blah blah blah, but to make a scum list and not put on people you have no PROOF of being town... means you are trying to cover them up in some way...

Result: I find this to be a logical reason to think about a Volkan/Shaft.ed/ (Orig or AlyG) partnership... This by no means is proof of guilt, but I would like some explanation before I start narrowing my whole reread focus on Volkan... That can be way dangerous and I won't hurt us by not being up to full speed ><

Next issue...

Post 544,

I raised the option of an AlyG lynch, as I said, to see what people though. By that, of course, I meant that I was interested to see who supported it. Again, shaft.ed, you have taken the pro-town option, whereas Oman has, again, supported something on a dodgy basis. I have done this also, which was why I raised the AlyG thing, to see the extent of what Oman would support.

The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig.

HELLO? OTHER TOWN PLAYERS? HOW CAN YOU HAVE COMPLETLY OVERLOOKED THIS?

*cries blood*

How can the excuse "I voted player X just to see who would also vote him! Actually voting him is scummy! So lets lynch the person who agreed with me!" fly... How come Volkan is still alive? Why did this last an additional ... 20 odd pages... ???!?!?!?! Is there a logical answer later on? Did I miss something? What?

Now I'm not saying the excuse "I want to see how fast someone would bandwagon" or "I want to see how fast someone would switch votes" or something similar means anything bad, I'm saying the excuse Volkan used in this post seems like something a scum would say to throw a "Bandwagon" he started onto the shoulder's of someone else... It seems like either a frame up, or a cover up...

Also a bit more of that Shaft.ed is town stuff from Volkan... still not anything plausible, but seeing a pattern over and over is something I like to run with...

Last Issue:

Getting tired.. one last thing I would like cleared up...

Post 601,

Yes, I knew what you meant. I don't think he should kill even if he is the vig.

now take post:

...grr.....ahhh.....GAW... finally... Took me a while to find again...

Post: 512

And: If you guys want me to, I could just not kill someone tonight (but only if we misslynch, otherwise there's no reason for me not to)

No; you should kill...just be careful.

... Now... granted... its an 80 post difference... and shafted does make a good case against a vig night kill... It's just that seeing as how I seem to have other cases against him, I feel it best to get answers to any thing I find, and such an obvious contradiction deserves an answer...

Again this proves nothing... But I still think I should get it answered BEFORE I continue reading... Otherwise I may begin limiting my search to Volkan and his actions... which, as previously stated, would mean I come into the game as a disadvantage to the rest of the town...

Also, just a note before I log...

Why do you guys keep doing the 6-3-1, and IF vig blank, if not vig blank, if mafia blank, etc... OVER AND OVER AND OVER... *hour*... AND OVER... I get that knowing odds can help, and knowing all outcomes means we can make better choices, but come on... IF you keep ONLY doing that you don't actually DO anything... and then you find yourself on page 43 with over 1000 posts and no closer to a lynch then when you started...

Ok I will continue my read up again tomorrow... Man I didn't think it would take me so long... *hangs head*

[vollkan]

First up, good post Korlash. It always helps to get a new perspective on things. I have problems with some of what you said, but I am still pleased that you are making a unique contribution.

Big Issue:

As of this very second... I would vote Volkan based on three of his past posts I find/deem weird and/or suspicious. Note that not being caught up means I may be missing something and this should in no way be taken as my official opinion... just my thoughts as of now...

First in Post 487, He lists his "Mafioso list" he goes on to say he leaves off Orig and AlyG because of roleclaims. I can agree with this... What I cannot agree with is him saying "Shaft.ed appears protown so I will not consider him for a lynch" And then follow it up by concluding "So 3 out of the 5 on the list are the mafia!"

I cannot overlook someone trying to push another's innocents by conveniently overlooking them. There is no reason not to suspect Shaft.ed... at least none I see... You may concider him protown, think he is protown, have strong feelings, blah blah blah, but to make a scum list and not put on people you have no PROOF of being town... means you are trying to cover them up in some way...

Result: I find this to be a logical reason to think about a Volkan/Shaft.ed/ (Orig or AlyG) partnership... This by no means is proof of guilt, but I would like some explanation before I start narrowing my whole reread focus on Volkan... That can be way dangerous and I won't hurt us by not being up to full speed ><

You are looking at what I said in the wrong way Korlash. I made a similar sort of post not too long ago, looking at the ramifications of certain assumptions.

Don't read what I said as me saying that shaft.ed is 100% proven pro-town, because that certainly is not my view. That post you are looking at was simply me framing my perspective on how things looked. As in, shaft.ed seemed very pro-town to me and, as such, I was simply demonstrating how things look to me if shaft.ed is pro-town as a base assumption.

I hope the clears up my meaning.

Post 544,

I raised the option of an AlyG lynch, as I said, to see what people though. By that, of course, I meant that I was interested to see who supported it. Again, shaft.ed, you have taken the pro-town option, whereas Oman has, again, supported something on a dodgy basis. I have done this also, which was why I raised the AlyG thing, to see the extent of what Oman would support.

The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig.

HELLO? OTHER TOWN PLAYERS? HOW CAN YOU HAVE COMPLETLY OVERLOOKED THIS?

*cries blood*

1)

How can the excuse "I voted player X just to see who would also vote him! Actually voting him is scummy! So lets lynch the person who agreed with me!" fly... How come Volkan is still alive? Why did this last an additional ... 20 odd pages... ???!?!?!?! Is there a logical answer later on? Did I miss something? What?

2

Now I'm not saying the excuse "I want to see how fast someone would bandwagon" or "I want to see how fast someone would switch votes" or something similar means anything bad, I'm saying the excuse Volkan used in this post seems like something a scum would say to throw a "Bandwagon" he started onto the shoulder's of someone else... It seems like either a frame up, or a cover up...

3

Also a bit more of that Shaft.ed is town stuff from Volkan... still not anything plausible, but seeing a pattern over and over is something I like to run with...

Melodramatic much?

1) I did not vote AlyG, which is what you are saying I did. My words were:

One possibility would be to lynch AlyG.
If AlyG comes up mafia, we pretty much know that Orig is mafia also. If that happens, we know we have a SK and I would be willing to bank very strongly on it being Dybeck.

The point of me saying that incredibly stupid statement was to trap Oman, as I said in 544. Oman's response was textbook scum, exactly as I expected:

Dybeck is choice #1 for a lynch, but AlyG could help us confirm Orig mafia if(when:lol:) AlyG comes up mafia.

Then we're left at...something:1:1 (Didn't do the math) In a WCS
Yeah, I reckon either AlyG or Dybeck.

Thanks for bringing this up Korlash, because you reminded me of how Oman fell majorly for this trap of mine, which is precisely what I was saying in 544

You seem to think I was sincere there. I do have a history of using this sort of technique though. See: Mini 486

2) I never voted AlyG for this.

3) Given the intent of the trap, it should be obvious that shaft.ed took the pro-town option.

... Now... granted... its an 80 post difference... and shafted does make a good case against a vig night kill... It's just that seeing as how I seem to have other cases against him, I feel it best to get answers to any thing I find, and such an obvious contradiction deserves an answer...

No real contradiction. If you read my posts #566 and #574, I argued that a vigging was very dangerous. In #560, I said I was definitely not up for the risk. In #558 I said his vigging was dangerous. And in #518 I agreed with shaft.ed's numerical argument against Orig vigging. That was just 6 posts after the first one you cite.

In other words, Korlash, you ignored a gigantic chunk of posts in which it was pretty clear why my position changed in order to make up a contradiction.

Again this proves nothing... But I still think I should get it answered BEFORE I continue reading... Otherwise I may begin limiting my search to Volkan and his actions... which, as previously stated, would mean I come into the game as a disadvantage to the rest of the town...

I would strongly recommend that you do not limit your read to me. Even if I had not rebutted your suspicions, it is exceptionally bad to focus your read on just one player.

Why do you guys keep doing the 6-3-1, and IF vig blank, if not vig blank, if mafia blank, etc... OVER AND OVER AND OVER... *hour*... AND OVER... I get that knowing odds can help, and knowing all outcomes means we can make better choices, but come on... IF you keep ONLY doing that you don't actually DO anything... and then you find yourself on page 43 with over 1000 posts and no closer to a lynch then when you started...

It's a playstyle thing. I like to examine the probabilities and consequences of things in order to determine the best options.

It is very useful (ie. it was chiefly responsible for the call to ban Orig from NKing tonight and has destroyed the case for lynching Orig today).

[dybeck]

No I'm saying if you are so sure he is mafia then you should also account for the fact he is certain to be NK'd.

OK well let's lynch Korlash. In any event we get originality tomorrow.

unvote, vote: Korlash

[vollkan]

OK well let's lynch Korlash. In any event we get originality tomorrow.

unvote, vote: Korlash

You almost had me doubting my suspicion in you, and then you go and make another casual call for a lynch, dodging the whole debate about you being entirely wrong on Orig.

Vote: dybeck

[Korlash]

Cool... Glad I can cross all that off my list... Well back to reading...

And... that was probably the most weird and suspicious thing I have ever read... wait.. don;t think about it.. catch up first.. right...

[vollkan]

And... that was probably the most weird and suspicious thing I have ever read... wait.. don;t think about it.. catch up first.. right...

What was?

[shaft.ed]

Korlash, nice to see some major new content coming into the game.

I want to say about the numbers that a lot of times that ended up being somekind of weird night time (at least in this hemisphere) session between Oman and vollkan. I'd log in in the morning and see three new pages of numbers and my head would explode, so I feel your pain. The other instances generally centered around us trying over and over to show dybeck that lynching orig was not the pro-town play for today.

In regards to vollkan, I agree with you that I've noticed few weird little tells here and there, and buried in all of that text you've been reading I say this once or twice. He's done some odd things from my perspective, but he's playing far more pro-town than most players so I simply have not considered his lynch today there are far more viable candidates.

Your first point where you say he listed me as sure town, did worry me that I was being buddied up to. This and his very quick attacks on AlyG to start the day had me a bit concerned.

When he brought up the AlyG lynch this did distrub me at the time. But after meta'ing him (the link he gave you) this is a tactic of his, and as he said he didn't vote. It also quite clearly showed Oman jumping in line for this, and Oman also suggested a NK of AlyG wouldn't be a bad choice. In fact, it's also a tactic that your predecessor used (see the Oman bandwagon on D1). So while you yourself didn't do it, the same argument can be made against both of you.

One of the things that has been most troubling to me about vollkan was his constant pressing for originality to vig' kill. I really didn't like this idea and felt it was anti-town especially given orig's choice to kill anyone last night. Also if he is scum this would get him off the hook so to speak. I was never sure if he was saying all this as a code to make the mafia think orig would be more likely to kill than he really was and thus make him more likely to be NK'd than AlyG, but it didn't set easy with me (and that was also a source for a lot of numbers). This is something that I consider a strike against vollkan.

[Gemelli]

Unvote

The problem I see with my case against Oman/Korlash is that now that Oman has left the game, it's impossible to ask him to account for his previous actions. I still have some heavy suspicions in place -- based purely on what Oman was doing in the game before Korlash replaced in -- but I doubt that I'm ever going to get any responses to the issues I brought up in my case against him. (The paranoid part of me wonders if Oman orchestrated this on purpose. Again, we'll never know the answer to that question until it doesn't matter.)

That being said, Korlosh: if you'd care to read my post 1055, and hazard a guess as to what Oman might have been trying to accomplish with the points I brought up, it'd be much appreciated

I agree with what you and shaft.ed have posted about vollkan. Yes, there is cause to suspect him. I have noticed (and vollkan has confirmed) that in games that vollkan has played as mafia, he has hardly ever come under suspicion. Doing a read of those games, he does indeed appear pro-town. This isn't a tell either way, since he also looks pro-town when he plays as town. Just a reminder that as scum, he is a very dangerous player.

But ultimately, I think that there are other players in this game who I find more suspicious than him. With at least three other players ahead of him on my suspect-o-meter -- Korlash/Oman, Dybeck, and Originality -- I'm not inclined to pursue him as a target for today.

Overall, I think it would be a mistake for ANY of us to start assuming that ANY other player in the game is town-aligned at this point. Remember that the town has already lost at least 1/3 of its players, and that at least 1/3 of the remaining players ARE scum. Collaboration and consensus remain important, but let's stay objectively suspicious too

Now then: Dybeck.

You first raised your D2 suspicions of Oman in post 673. You reiterated them in 845, 888, 951, 969, 973, 981, and 998. Then in 1074 and 1089, you push for Korlash's lynch and add your vote to him.

In NONE of those posts have you ever articulated your reasons for suspecting him. Arguments have been raised and discussed by several players, but you haven't contributed any of your own opinions.

Please state, in your own words, your reasons for believing that Oman/Korlosh is scum. Votes without context smack of opportunism. You don't need to convince me that he may be scum -- I've made my own opinions perfectly clear -- but you DO need to convince me that you actually have a reason.

[dybeck]

I think that his backing of orig and his continual failure to engage on the subject marks him as orig's scummate.

[Gemelli]

All well and good, except that OMAN HAS NOT BEEN BACKING ORIGINALITY.

Originality has been publicly supporting Oman all game, yes. But not the other way around.

This is looking very much to me like a case where you've skimmed the arguments that others have made, but really only picked up the fact that there is a bandwagon against Oman/Korlash and are trying to take advantage of it.

[shaft.ed]

Yes that was another in depth post by the very thorough dybeck [/sarcasm]

[vollkan]

One of the things that has been most troubling to me about vollkan was his constant pressing for originality to vig' kill. I really didn't like this idea and felt it was anti-town especially given orig's choice to kill anyone last night. Also if he is scum this would get him off the hook so to speak. I was never sure if he was saying all this as a code to make the mafia think orig would be more likely to kill than he really was and thus make him more likely to be NK'd than AlyG, but it didn't set easy with me (and that was also a source for a lot of numbers). This is something that I consider a strike against vollkan.

If you read most of my posts of that era, I was trying to tell Orig not to kill but in such a way that it was uncertain; failing miserably of course, since I was attempting to get the best of both worlds.

When I said things like:

No, we haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution

and

I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing. I will support him being told he really shouldn't, but he must be given some leeway so that the prospect of him killing and not being lynched remains as a threat. I really don't want Orig to risk it, but I also don't want to lose the uncertainty.

In effect, what I was trying to was to tell Orig not to NK in a slightly cryptic way so that I did not have to get rid of the uncertainty element. I knew that it was seen as anti-town of me, but I thought if I maintained that attitude I might be able to stop Orig NKing whilst still being able to keep the facade of it being "uncertain".

I think that his backing of orig and his continual failure to engage on the subject marks him as orig's scummate.

I smell someone who is just paraphrasing what other people have been saying.

[Streeflo]

Dum de dum de dum,

12

more days before deadline hits!