Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Thok]

Edit by way of Quadruple Post "This reason also

only

applies to me in particular".

[Akbar]

The ESE can't be scum unless only 1 of them is. They could have killed one of us last night and won the game.

[Akbar]

Flay told me aside from Thok's block, I saw a witch fly overhead and land near the houses of ThAdmiral, Fritzler & Fonz.

[Thok]

Flay told me aside from Thok's block, I saw a witch fly overhead and land near the houses of ThAdmiral, Fritzler & Fonz.

I can confirm this is what I saw last night/did last night. (My reason for blocking Akbar was to be consistent with what I said yesterday, although I did consider all of the other block possibilities.)

The Fonz/Fritzler have claimed mod confirmed innocence, so either both of them are scum or neither is scum. The masons aren't totally cleared (they may have chosen to get a daykill today to get around the outside chance of me roleblocking them last night). On the flip side, I'm not sure we can beat the masons if they are scum and have a daykill today, and they likely would have daykilled me yesterday for the win if they could have.

The fact that a scum group with me can't be roleblocked rules out the possibility of me being in a two person scum; such a group would have killed last night and the game would be over.

We should seriously consider the idea of ThAdmiral being lone wolf. That has the best answer to "Why would the wolves try to kill Lowell" of any of the reasonable scum scenarios, and also has the best answer to "How the heck is a mass tracking mason pair balanced?".

[Akbar]

Maybe they're not a pair at all. Kison said it himself that Pbug's alignment was unconfirmed.

We are witch sisters. Nothing indicates there's a possibility that either of us are scum. On the other hand, nothing guarantees that one of us isn't.

ESE is only confirmed by each other. But, I can only think of 1 way that ESE is scum and that's if they are a cult playing it safe, afraid to be seen out and/or recruit the wrong person. Because if they recruited the wrong person, 1 would be dead and we'd lynch the other the next morning.

[Thok]

I don't really buy the ESE=Cult theory, as a quick look shows that the person pushing that the hardest was Mr Flay, who was mafia (and who basically had to know that the al4xz kill was a mafia kill, so his theory was mostly to spread confusion).

Mod

, I'd like a prod on ThAdmiral.

[Thok]

To be fair-I should say that I could see the idea of ESE=Wolves with some combo ability to kill some nights and recruit other nights. But I don't see the possibility of them being a third scum group.

[The Fonz]

Actually, I've changed my mind a bit. Here's a few thoughts.

1. There's a fairly compelling reason why I can't be part of a two person scum team (it's not 100% foolproof, but it's there. This reason also applies to me in particular.)

This is true. A two-person wolfgroup including Thok either blocks Akbar (if ThAdmiral is the buddy) or faces no threat of a doc protect, so kills last night and wins. Hence, I really don't think Thok is the play- since if he's scum, he is lone scum, so there will be a tomorrow regardless.

2. If people are going to be suggesting that Akbar is scum, I'd actually like to hear reasons for it. I will not accept "Akbar plays by gut/doesn't seem to use logic" as a reason, as I feel that's an Akbar playstyle-tell and not a sign of whether or not he is scummy. I also don't feel "Akbar was suspicious of the ESE" is a good reason either, as I feel that there was decent reason for the non-masons to be suspicious of the ESE.

Well, on playstyle, it's mostly that Akbar made downright untrue statements (Al was confirmed scum, Flay confirmed town) and accused me of being scummy for pointing out the truth. But the case on him is far more process of elimination. We have confirmation that Thok and ThAdmiral are drunk guy and witch, respectively. We know only that Akbar has been seen out (in particular, on one specific night where someone else did the wolfkill).

3. I've been neglegent with this, but I'd like to hear first names from the ESE members and ThAdmiral.

We don't have them.


quote="Akbar"]Flay told me aside from Thok's block, I saw a witch fly overhead and land near the houses of ThAdmiral, Fritzler & Fonz.[/quote]

The Fonz/Fritzler have claimed mod confirmed innocence, so either both of them are scum or neither is scum.

Correct.

The masons aren't totally cleared (they may have chosen to get a daykill today to get around the outside chance of me roleblocking them last night). On the flip side, I'm not sure we can beat the masons if they are scum and have a daykill today, and they likely would have daykilled me yesterday for the win if they could have.

We should seriously consider the idea of ThAdmiral being lone wolf. That has the best answer to "Why would the wolves try to kill Lowell" of any of the reasonable scum scenarios, and also has the best answer to "How the heck is a mass tracking mason pair balanced?".

Disagree. 'There is no town doc' is an equally likely explanation for 'how is a mass tracking mason/inventor pair balanced?' If between them they constitute most of the town's power, can only protect

or/i] investigate, and cannot self-protect, whilst the wolves have an occasional daykill and a scumdoc, that's not hugely unbalanced.

Given that the wolves killed days two and five, today would be a logical day for them to have another (intervals increasing by one day each time).

It's a fair point that the mod saw fit to not confirm the witches to one another, whilst doing so for us. However, I'm not sure how being a witch is compatible with being a wolf- it wouldn't seem to be great flavour to have a wolf flying a broom. Also, Akbar's 'What? That seems incredibly unlikely' reaction to the suggestion of scumdoc suggested a guilty conscience to me.

[Thok]

The Fonz: Please stop attacking Akbar based on the fact that he didn't know your role PM day 2 or 3. Would you consider it fair if I attacked people for thinking the roleblocker was likely scum Day 4?

Akbar being scum has serious problems with it.

1. Why didn't he kill PBug ever, despite knowing about him since day 2?
2. Why did he kill Lowell, who was in the pool of "likely unconfirmed", and who's role power was mostly irrelevent to a scum who could daykill, when such a death could lead to him being tracked?

[The Fonz]

The Fonz: Please stop attacking Akbar based on the fact that he didn't know your role PM day 2 or 3. Would you consider it fair if I attacked people for thinking the roleblocker was likely scum Day 4?

This is a complete misrep. I'm not attacking him FOR NOT KNOWING ESE WAS MASON. He attacked me for even considering the possibility. That's scummy. He used distortions (Al= confirmed scum, Flay= confirmed town) to support his position. There were plenty of people who didn't know my PM, no-one else acted that way, and that is because it was an utterly unreasonable way to act. He also outright lied about his role. There was a night when he didn't 'protect.' He claimed he was mod-forbidden to reveal why. This is seriously suspect.

Akbar being scum has serious problems with it.

So does you being scum, and ThAdmiral being scum. Considerably greater problems than Akbar being scum, in fact.

1. Why didn't he kill PBug ever, despite knowing about him since day 2?
2. Why did he kill Lowell, who was in the pool of "likely unconfirmed", and who's role power was mostly irrelevent to a scum who could daykill, when such a death could lead to him being tracked?

1. WIFOM. So that he could make that precise argument. Also, PBuG giving Akbar the object indicates that PBuG was of the opinion Akbar is town. You don't tend to kill your allies. Once PBuG fullclaimed, it became necessary not to kill him to keep the doc claim believable.
2. We'd massclaimed by that point. We knew there wasn't a tracker. If you mean ThAdmiral, Akbar had a pretext for being out anyway. Also, an item night was fairly likely anyway, considering how many power roles had been outed the night before.

Thok, do you not find it strange at all that a

claimed doctor

has lived this long?

[Thok]

Thok, do you not find it strange at all that a

claimed doctor

has lived this long?

There have only been three scum kills since Akbar claimed (N9V, Kison, Lowell), mainly because of tracker/roleblocking issues. Two of those kills have been on coppish.

Also, the question can easily be flipped: why haven't the claimed ESE masons or the claimed roleblocker been killed yet?

I agree that the case for me being scum has problems also (essentially the "Why Lowell?" problem pops up again plus there's the whole my powers/flavor are sort of confirmed by others thing.) The case on ThAdmiral has less issues, IMHO.

Are you attacking Akbar because you think he's scum, or because you think he'd be easier to lynch then ThAdmiral?

[The Fonz]

Evidently not, since you seem to strongly prefer the ThAdmiral lynch. Besides, only scum push the easy lynch over the right lynch, so that's a loaded question.

I have far more reason to believe ThAdmiral town.

[Thok]

Evidently not, since you seem to strongly prefer the ThAdmiral lynch. Besides, only scum push the easy lynch over the right lynch, so that's a loaded question.

I have far more reason to believe ThAdmiral town.

Well, yeah, it was meant to be a loaded question. I'm a bit skeptical of everybody, given that the last few days have been mostly follow the Thok.

I'd like to hear your reasons for thinking ThAdmiral is protown.

Also, have you tried looking over MOS's posts at all?

[The Fonz]

Not since that first time, when I came up with the XReyoX link. Since no-one else has come up wolf since, i'm not sure what the benefit would be.

And it hasn't been 'Follow the Thok.' You give yourself too much credit for the plan of lynching unconfirmed, which I think a small child could have come up with. I've been making plain 'Battle Mage, then Tar, then if game not over Akbar' has been my plan for a very long time.

I have a hard time believing ThAdmiral to be scum when he's been seen out on his broom by several people, some of whom are presumably not scum. Witch and Wolf also seem incompatible from a flavour standpoint. I very much came into today thinking 'it has to be Akbar or Thok.'

[Thok]

Fair enough about the follow the Thok thing. I still feel I've been the most vocal player the last few days.

I don't really see why Witch and Wolf are incompatible, as they both are from the same sort of mythology. Also we know from Kison that PBug wasn't on the broom until Kison was killed, which means PBug could have been doing other stuff while Kison was mass tracking.

MOS had some interaction with PBug (now ThAdmiral) which I find intersting, his only interaction with the masonry was to support an attack on al4xz (I'd expect more of an attack on masons from him if he was scum with the masons) and mostly ignored Akbar. (I haven't mentioned XReyoX-MOS interaction since I haven't bothered to look for it, as I know my alignment.) I don't think it's correct to ignore him.

[Akbar]

The only thing I've lied about involved hiding my Doc role until Pbug panicked and thought I was trying to hurt him. But, someone who can twist the phrase “4 or so” to mean 3 or less can pretty much label anything a lie.

Claiming that few others had the same suspicions of you just because they didn't join the argument doesn't account for much considering the majority of our players were either inactive town or lurking scum.

[The Fonz]

The only thing I've lied about involved hiding my Doc role until Pbug panicked and thought I was trying to hurt him. But, someone who can twist the phrase “4 or so” to mean 3 or less can pretty much label anything a lie.

Sure enough, I got attacked. Unfortunately it was by our Vigilante. I illustrated the details of the attack for anyone to reference. The key point being attacked at home.

I have no night action.

Now, this seems pretty obviously a lie to me.

I guess anyone who can see 'ESE member' as 'confirmed scum' and 'Gardener at the Estate' as 'confirmed town' can twist pretty much anything, though.

Claiming that few others had the same suspicions of you just because they didn't join the argument doesn't account for much considering the majority of our players were either inactive town or
lurking scum.

That they didn't suspect me isn't the point. That they didn't make scummy arguments and blatant misrepresentations

is

.

[The Fonz]

Oh, before I forget:

Thok, on Night 5 you claim to have received an item, which presumably could only have come from ThAdmiral. Someone was eaten that night. Since I find it hard to believe the mafia are cannibals, that means a wolf kill was performed by someone else that night, unless ThAdmiral gets to kill and use his witch abilities on the same night, which seems hugely unbalanced.

[Thok]

Oh, before I forget:

Thok, on Night 5 you claim to have received an item, which presumably could only have come from ThAdmiral. Someone was eaten that night. Since I find it hard to believe the mafia are cannibals, that means a wolf kill was performed by someone else that night, unless ThAdmiral gets to kill and use his witch abilities on the same night, which seems hugely unbalanced.

We're talking about a two person scum group. Very little is "highly unbalanced".

ThAdmiral didn't use his broom the one night it would have been the most helpful; doesn't that concern you at all?

[The Fonz]

Which night are we talking about?

And I thought one nightaction per person per night was, like, a cardinal rule of mafia.

I'm also far from sure we

are

talking about a two-person scumgroup.

[Thok]

Which night are we talking about?

The only night we've had a wolf kill (Lowell) since MOS died is also a night when ThAdmiral gave out items rather than use his broom.

And I thought one nightaction per person per night was, like, a cardinal rule of mafia.

Um, no. It depends on the mod (I've run a game where all players had three night actions per player, but I wouldn't consider that evidence about this game.) That said, I've just looked over a bunch of Phoebus's large theme games [Norse Myth, Roahl Dahl, Seville Symposium, and Asterix], and he does tend to limit players to one night action per player. He also tends to have multiple mason groups. So this is a point in favor of your arguments.

I'm also far from sure we

are

talking about a two-person scumgroup.

If there is a 3 person wolf group (more would mean the wolves should have won today), then it has 2 people living (or something crazy about some of the dead people being not revealled as wolves). We've also mostly agreed that the only viable 2 person scum groups are the masons or Akbar/ThAdmiral, and in either case arguing over lynching Akbar versus ThAdmiral is silly.

What do you think about Lowell not knowing about the Cat in a Wicker basket? Or is that mostly irrelevant?

[The Fonz]

Which night are we talking about?

The only night we've had a wolf kill (Lowell) since MOS died is also a night when ThAdmiral gave out items rather than use his broom.

Don't see the relevance here. I see no reason to think that night was a particularly bad one to choose to use items rather than broom. Indeed, I'd see that as evidence for the defence- it would have been possible for ThAdmiral to kill and claim to have used the broom, since a claimed action of 'flew, saw Akbar and Thok' would have left us none the wiser as to which of the three was the killer- whilst him giving out the item is confirmable by you.

And I thought one nightaction per person per night was, like, a cardinal rule of mafia.

Um, no. It depends on the mod (I've run a game where all players had three night actions per player, but I wouldn't consider that evidence about this game.) That said, I've just looked over a bunch of Phoebus's large theme games [Norse Myth, Roahl Dahl, Seville Symposium, and Asterix], and he does tend to limit players to one night action per player. He also tends to have multiple mason groups. So this is a point in favor of your arguments.

Does he have a history of using scum masons?

I'm also far from sure we

are

talking about a two-person scumgroup.

If there is a 3 person wolf group (more would mean the wolves should have won today), then it has 2 people living (or something crazy about some of the dead people being not revealled as wolves). We've also mostly agreed that the only viable 2 person scum groups are the masons or Akbar/ThAdmiral, and in either case arguing over lynching Akbar versus ThAdmiral is silly.

Dayjob theory. Also, I fail to see how the masons are a viable scumgroup- Al4x, killed at night, came up ESE member... hence there must be other ESE members, whilst MoS came up lyncanthrope. If ESE= wolf, why did MoS come up lycanthrope?

What do you think about Lowell not knowing about the Cat in a Wicker basket? Or is that mostly irrelevant?

Irrelevant, since the gift-giving has been confirmed by you and Akbar, and I don't think you two can be buddies.

[Thok]

Don't see the relevance here. I see no reason to think that night was a particularly bad one to choose to use items rather than broom. Indeed, I'd see that as evidence for the defence- it would have been possible for ThAdmiral to kill and claim to have used the broom, since a claimed action of 'flew, saw Akbar and Thok' would have left us none the wiser as to which of the three was the killer- whilst him giving out the item is confirmable by you.

It's possible that he gave out items to people to try to make himself look townish.

Does he have a history of using scum masons?

Not as far as I can tell. Again, this is a point in the ESE/ThAdmiral's favor.

Dayjob theory. Also, I fail to see how the masons are a viable scumgroup- Al4x, killed at night, came up ESE member... hence there must be other ESE members, whilst MoS came up lyncanthrope. If ESE= wolf, why did MoS come up lycanthrope?

I've been pondering some sort of lunar cycle theory for the wolves, where different phases of the moon allow to werewolves to do different things/show up as different things at different times.

The problem is in that scenario, there should have been a daykill yesterday (to match the cycle).

What do you think about Lowell not knowing about the Cat in a Wicker basket? Or is that mostly irrelevant?

Irrelevant, since the gift-giving has been confirmed by you and Akbar, and I don't think you two can be buddies.[/quote]

It's possible that Kison sent out a gift night 1 and PBug claimed he sent out a gift and did other things instead. That's why I'm asking.

[Akbar]

Sure enough, I got attacked. Unfortunately it was by our Vigilante. I illustrated the details of the attack for anyone to reference. The key point being attacked at home.

I have no night action.

Thank you for

again

illustrating my point. Lying only to hide my Doc role.

I guess anyone who can see 'ESE member' as 'confirmed scum' and 'Gardener at the Estate' as 'confirmed town' can twist pretty much anything, though.

Oh, what's this here?

2. We have a limited-reveal game, as shown by the fact that the vig came up 'strongman' and a (likely) townsperson came up 'gardener.'

Oh, it's the Fonz stating the Gardener is likely Town...

That they didn't suspect me isn't the point. That they didn't make scummy arguments and blatant misrepresentations is.

They didn't make any arguments period is the point.

Al was killed at home, and you seem to believe that he's confirmed scum. Can't have it both ways.

What was that you were saying about blatant misrepresentations?

al4xz was one of those people and he was out and about in the evening. He knew the risks of what he was doing and the risk was what made him do it. A shiver of excitement ran along his spine as

he crossed the village green, on his way to the river.

He hoped for a rendezvous there, and if that didn't happen, he could always help himself.

[Mr. Flay]

Fritzler and ThAdmiral have been prodded

, in the interest of keeping things moving here...