Micro 615: The Walking Dead: Episode 5 (GAME OVER)

[pirate mollie]

look

it really is this simple. you don't let a 1v1 claim/cc go another day. period. end of story. this is how town loses games/

look I am back on my winning streak of town games can you plz not get derpy and fuck it up tia

I just can't see a scenario where the cop and not the role cop is scum is they both cry foul. So today why not pursue other scum, unless you think the are scum together

listen. plz listen.

I have seen this scenario SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO many times in games and every time that town puts off lynching claim/cc they lose. every single time. beeboy were in a recent game together where I was a lyncher and he was my target but also scum and I KNEW that he was scum via my role. I claimed straight out the gate cos I thought I was playing with half-way competent players in that game and dumb town let it go for 3 game days before lynching and pulling off a perfect win (I cld have won WITH TOWN and that was what I was going for). I don't want that to happen here.

I am telling you that I think we shld lynch java. he is scum flailing.

[pirate mollie]

the oooooooooone thing that gives me pause is that it wld be weird I think for radja to recycle a rick grimes role as a 2 shot cop.

hhhhmmmm....

UNVOTE: until i do some digging.

[WhiteLight]

Can we please not go derp mode?

~Bee

[WhiteLight]

I rolled gunsmith on episode 3 and was lynched day 1 because my flavor didn't make sense.
I really don't want to be lynched day 1 again as an investigative because of more bogus...


~Bee

[drmyshottyizsik]

I rolled gunsmith on episode 3 and was lynched day 1 because my flavor didn't make sense.
I really don't want to be lynched day 1 again as an investigative because of more bogus...


~Bee

Will you wagon SS with me?

[pirate mollie]

I rolled gunsmith on episode 3 and was lynched day 1 because my flavor didn't make sense.
I really don't want to be lynched day 1 again as an investigative because of more bogus...


~Bee

Will you wagon SS with me?

no. if beeboy he shld be auto lynched cos he knows how bad it was for town in rupaul to leave us both alive. that is how he won.

why aren't you wanting to resolve this? allowing to last HURTS TOWN. scum won't nk the other cos then it proves the other is fake.

I srsly doubt there are 2 investigatives this game. this is micros not a large, you cannot further the game by leaving the 2 alive. you will be faced with an even bigger question mark tomorrow and still stuck in the same situ.

not resolving this is fucking scum motivation or extremely bad town.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Mollie's pushing that it HAS to be one of Java/WL today is scummy as fuck.

[pirate mollie]

Mollie's pushing that it HAS to be one of Java/WL today is scummy as fuck.

nope.

its called "playing the tape all the way through" and if you applied a little bit of critical thinking and deductive reasoning as well as experience it wld be hard for you to come to a different conclusion if you had a town role pm.

1 of these things is missing if you are town and all of them wld be missing if you were scum.

1v1 with a claim/cc does not work out in town's favour in a micros. do the math

I am also going to claim a protective role and fuck yeah if scum wanna try to go head to head with me even if I am going to be mostly on v/la. cos I am really freaking town here, it is 1 of the reasons I was not worried about asking for claims from java or wl.

to me java looks the weakest of the 2 claims. I kind of get how wl softclaimed their role cos I did it in the same manner but ugh I am trying to close off loose ends and bottleneck scum's options.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

It's not a counter claim.

They're two different roles.

[Javajoe24]

It's not a counter claim.

They're two different roles.

Exactly!

[Something_Smart]

Meh, this game is annoying. Because of the playerlist I'm having trouble forming solid reads and when you add the high-stakes setup spec to that it gets even trickier.
I really don't believe that Radja would include 2 TPRs, when there are at most 3, that do nothing to affect the gamestate and instead just get results. I also don't think there's anything wrong with the Rick Grimes 2-shot cop claim just because Radja's used it before.

In terms of reads, I have decent townreads on mollie and shotty (though I will really have to meta mollie to assure myself that her stubbornness here is playstyle not alignment indicative). Maverick lurking and his posts being generally unimpressive makes me not want to like him but he committed a classic towntell in 321 so he's a townlean for now as well. Cakez is a townlean because I'm sheeping GL's read on him, as I can't really read Cakez basically at all.

Java and WhiteLight are a special case but I do think WhiteLight is town because their posts that I really hated make a ton more sense after the claim, whereas Java's coasting has been slightly scummy if anything.

BBT I don't know about and I want to call him scum but I want to wait until he actually takes long enough of a break from setup arguing to actually read the thread. Also he's pushing Java/WhiteLight as TvT which would be a convenient way to save your partner from a 1v1.

I'm scumreading GL because I initially didn't like his stance on the Java/WhiteLight argument and looking back at his ISO I'm seeing that only-responding-to-others thing that I mentioned about his ISO in College, and I also reread his ISO in Brass & Shrapnel and found that he was more proactive and more prone to changing his reads without prompting there. Plus his read on Java is questionable.

I'm just throwing that out there because I have very little clue what to do with all this. I still want to lynch Java and I don't like BBT's pushing hardcore against it, it's not like 1-shot Rolecop will be devastating for town to lose.

[drmyshottyizsik]

SS why are you so opposed to lynching else where and kiling conf scum tomorrow? Do you think java and wl are both scum? Look if there is only one of the two of them that are scum and we pick wrong today then we will have to wait until tomorrow anyway. Do why not try to find the other scum today and lynch conf scum tomorrow?

[Something_Smart]

We will not have conf scum tomorrow.

If Java is scum:
Java claims that WhiteLight is something other than a cop (vanilla, for instance) in order to force a 1v1
WhiteLight investigates Java and finds he is guilty
Result: Java claims guilty result on WhiteLight, WhiteLight claims guilty result on Java.

If WhiteLight is scum:
Java investigates WhiteLight and finds they are something other than a cop
WhiteLight claims a guilty on Java in order to force a 1v1
Result: Java claims guilty result on WhiteLight, WhiteLight claims guilty result on Java.

The two scenarios produce identical results, assuming scum fakeclaim intelligently.

All waiting a day does is eliminate the possibility that both are town, which I think is fairly remote anyway.

[drmyshottyizsik]

If they aren't both town then the role cop is the scum here.

[Something_Smart]

Probably but do you see my point?

[drmyshottyizsik]

Yes but do you see mine?
UNVOTE:
If we can find the other scum today we can for sure win tomorrow and on the tiny chance I'm wrong then the next day we will know practically 100%. I likeyou response here, but I stl think we should look elsewhere today and let them figure this out. we are also ignoring the chance they are both town. If they are then by day three we will probably be in 5 man lylo. We don't want that.

[pirate mollie]

We will not have conf scum tomorrow.

If Java is scum:
Java claims that WhiteLight is something other than a cop (vanilla, for instance) in order to force a 1v1
WhiteLight investigates Java and finds he is guilty
Result: Java claims guilty result on WhiteLight, WhiteLight claims guilty result on Java.

If WhiteLight is scum:
Java investigates WhiteLight and finds they are something other than a cop
WhiteLight claims a guilty on Java in order to force a 1v1
Result: Java claims guilty result on WhiteLight, WhiteLight claims guilty result on Java.

The two scenarios produce identical results, assuming scum fakeclaim intelligently.

All waiting a day does is eliminate the possibility that both are town, which I think is fairly remote anyway.

HOLY JESUS MOTHERFUCKING CHRIST SOME1 GETS IT

the problem will not go away just cos pple too lazy/dumb to figure out which claim is scum.

[pirate mollie]

Yes but do you see mine?
UNVOTE:
If we can find the other scum today we can for sure win tomorrow and on the tiny chance I'm wrong then the next day we will know practically 100%. I likeyou response here, but I stl think we should look elsewhere today and let them figure this out. we are also ignoring the chance they are both town. If they are then by day three we will probably be in 5 man lylo. We don't want that.

dude there is "let them figure it out"

this isn't fucking rocket science it is unlikely that there wld be 2 investigatives in micros game. you have a greater chance of hitting town lynching outside the 2 claimed investigatives. java fucking KNOWS that will flip town that is why he is pushing this whole "ohhhhhh mebbe we are both town".

[drmyshottyizsik]

Yes but do you see mine?
UNVOTE:
If we can find the other scum today we can for sure win tomorrow and on the tiny chance I'm wrong then the next day we will know practically 100%. I likeyou response here, but I stl think we should look elsewhere today and let them figure this out. we are also ignoring the chance they are both town. If they are then by day three we will probably be in 5 man lylo. We don't want that.

dude there is "let them figure it out"

this isn't fucking rocket science it is unlikely that there wld be 2 investigatives in micros game. you have a greater chance of hitting town lynching outside the 2 claimed investigatives. java fucking KNOWS that will flip town that is why he is pushing this whole "ohhhhhh mebbe we are both town".

Again what I they are both town? You are awful quick to ignore a scenario that we very quickly end up in lylo day 3

[Maverick1102]

I agree that we should be lynching between those two today. Objectively I'd say go for the weaker role of the two, but then again Java's pleas of innocence look more indignant than scummy. Problem is, WL's did too.

That Java isn't attacking what is essentially a counter-claim (I know it's not, but it totally is) is just weird as hell. I can't read any alignment-indicative information from that. 'My Counter Claim is town?'

As much as I dislike that we've been forced down this road by setup speculation, if my vote goes on scum now I'm happy.

VOTE: Java L-1

[drmyshottyizsik]

Look before I get on board with this I want everyone to respond to my what if they are both town question. This really scares me.

[Something_Smart]

So yes that is a valid question but we have to weigh all the factors here. There are a few things in play:

1. Two investigative claims- Even though Java's claimed role is quite weak, its nature is still investigative. Unfortunately, this is Radja's space for trying out potentially non-Normal mechanics and ideas, but I still doubt that he would include two roles with the same basic nature.

2. Java's weak claim- We lose very little by lynching Java, whereas WhiteLight's role loses part of its usefulness if they are forced to investigate Java. Additionally, Java's claim, being weak, is harder to catch with a balance question than a cop claim.

3. Play of the players themselves- both players played scummy enough to get run up. The odds that both are town go down based on that.

4. Worst case scenario versus likely outcome- while it is true that the worst case scenario of lynching Java is worse (both are town, go into 5 person LYLO with one confirmed inno from the N1 check), it is much less likely than the worst case scenario of not lynching either one (we mislynch today, go into the 1v1 tomorrow as I spelled out in 410, pick wrong and go into 3 person LYLO with no confirmed, ignoring other mechanics like 3rd parties).

5. Associative hunting- you want to hunt the partner today. But it's much harder to partner hunt when you don't know whose partner you're hunting.

So I realize this is pretty disorganized but the point is you have to consider probabilities as well as seriousness of the outcomes. So yes, I am scared that both are town, but I think it's a risk we need to take.

[GuiltyLion]

one wagon has the vast majority of support

the other has just me pushing it

HMMMM I WONDER WHICH ONE IS THE ONE THAT SCUM WANT

410 is cute. S_S this game will be a learning experience for you half of your reads are entirely predicated on java being scum, and you assume that people who

defend

java are more likely to be his partner.

[Something_Smart]

name one read that is predicated on Java being scum

besides WhiteLight obviously

[Javajoe24]

Yes but do you see mine?
UNVOTE:
If we can find the other scum today we can for sure win tomorrow and on the tiny chance I'm wrong then the next day we will know practically 100%. I likeyou response here, but I stl think we should look elsewhere today and let them figure this out. we are also ignoring the chance they are both town. If they are then by day three we will probably be in 5 man lylo. We don't want that.

dude there is "let them figure it out"

this isn't fucking rocket science it is unlikely that there wld be 2 investigatives in micros game. you have a greater chance of hitting town lynching outside the 2 claimed investigatives. java fucking KNOWS that will flip town that is why he is pushing this whole "ohhhhhh mebbe we are both town".

This makes no sense. I already know I am getting lynched today most likely, and even if not I am for sure being lynched before WL because of the nature of my role vs his. Why would I say he is most likely town as well if I were scum going to be lynched before him?