Mini 1800 - Game Over

[MechaGoomba]

I would have to look at the champions of the Karnos wagon [as scum suspects].

Town reads would be Mecha and Wingback.

If I'm wrong about both Wingback and Karnos being scum together I'll be poking [Mecha]. Hard.

Explain this please?

I didn't like the bits of the Karnos case quibbley bolted on when I asked him about it upon replacing in.

That would be 459, right?

[JohnnyFarrar]

Yeh

[Masquerade]

@Masquerade: Okay, so you have a bunch of links to games. Are you planning to analyze them at some point?

From my limited look at his games, I'm willing to write Johnny's behavior off as being playstyle for now. Might come back later.

No. I did what I did with them and am done with that now. I was curious about Johnny's playstyle in general, that's about all I can get from past games sadly. That's also why I didn't post the links initially, but Johnny asked.
I thought I saw similarities between that forthnight-scumgame and this game. In the towngames I saw I felt Johnny was more engaged and pro-active, while in that scumgame and here he was less engaged, and reactive. But then last page makes me think I saw wrong.
I want to do this rn.

VOTE: Math

[MathBlade]

Also: 562 : LAMIST.

Okay, if it was warning L-3 or L-2, I could see that. If it was warning L-1 soon after a vote count, maybe. But marking L-1 when vote counts are sparse and multiple people are rereading rather than following along? Really?

Of course, by saying this I might just push him to quickhammer me. I honestly hope I am wrong, I hope an actual town player is on my side here, but knowing I might get lynched in the near future I'd rather out this theory now rather than wait.

Even when about to be lynched, when you have your last chance to contribute to town, you're still so cautious!
You're not saying "These people are the scum, lynch them tomorrow." You're saying "OK, you asked for reads? Here are reads."
Above all, that's what I really don't like. When you have a chance to contribute, you equivocate, but you are willing to reiterate your flimsy defences as much as you need to.

Scum rarely push back against one of the only people defending them when almost everyone else is against them. They'd be ecstatic about having an ally.

Do you believe Karnos would expect that your defense would be able to get the lynch off of him? If yes, why? If no, then why would he care whether you defended him or not?

@GreyICE: Apparently the votecounter registered Mathblade's vote for karnos as for Wingback because they capitalized the first letter?

You will notice in the post you quoted that I had a town read on you. Still do. However I play a lot of games with Titus and your meta reminds me of hers. Get in front, lead, and demonstrate to the thread where your wishes are. Titus does this brilliantly as scum or town. However on D1 she usually cracks under the least bit of suspicion. When you responded to the flow and kept going that was one indication you were town. I also was scum reading Karnos at the time. By putting that there I realized I could try to figure you out early.

Now for the post I quoted. It is the Wingback paragraph that really sold me you were town. It wasn't that you were asking questions it was the how you asked them. Instead of asking what Wingback thought they would get out of it (which is what I would have expected if you were scum trying to rile Wingback up) you seem to be trying to get Wingback to think in a different way and demonstrate where you think their logic is off.

Finally, for me it is a matter of principle. You never let anyone who is that scummy avoid lynch. No matter what they claim. I have won games in face to face where I claim cop and people sneeze at it. When you find scum you kill it. No matter what it begs otherwise.

Now let's get to Dierfire's Unvote and revote -- Either way is fishy.
Let's assume Karnos is scum -- Then the Unvote and revote lets Karnos have a second bite at the apple where their claim magically comes in that the majority of people seem to just let go.
Let's assume Karnos is town -- Then the Unvote revote business looks like someone who is scared of the flip and what it would mean to be there.
Very rarely on a D1 lynch would I find that anyone has a reason to waffle like that and to not even state a reason other than they understand.

@Mecha @Dierfire Should cover both y'all phone posting

[MathBlade]

FYI greyICE fixed the counter Thanks

Unoffical Vote Count

MathBlade

(3): karnos, MechaGoomba, Masquerade

karnos

(2): qubixes, MathBlade

JohnnyFarrar

(2): Persivul, Wingback

Kappy

(2): Saru, Dierfire

Wingback

(1): The Bulge

Not Voting

(3): MagnaofIllusion, Kappy, JohnnyFarrar

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-06-22 16:01:53)

[Wingback]

Did some re-reading of the game. The townread that I most think I've been wrong about was Dierfire which is where I want to focus.

On Dierfire:

• Regarding Post 355/Post 559: What gave you the impression that Kappy's read on Sickofit in Post 181 was very strong? While he does have Sickofit at the bottom of his readslist, it was still early game and the reasons he posted make sense with the kind of reasoning expected that early. I don't know what level of reasoning you were expecting for page seven.
  
• Your entire read on Kappy seems to be based off of that and Kappy's early votehopping and while both of them are fine early game, neither are convincing reasons this late into the day. Kappy's early votehopping could just be him having "fun" in RVS so I don't find that point very strong either.
  
• The sequence of Post 354 and Post 355 looks like an "
  oh well, I have nothing to say, might as well respond to Kappy
  " rather than have any real desire to get your suspect lynched.
  
• Do you have any follow-up on your read on Mizzytastic that you mentioned in Post 494? It seems you like that he suspects the same people as you but other than that, you find his posts superficial and easy for mafia to generate?
  
• As Mathblade pointed out, your unvote in Post 610, and revote in Post 642 onto Karnos is hard to follow. If you unvoted because you were waiting to re-read and get a "good handle on the game," why revote before you did that?

Overall, I don't like that you spent much of the game tunneling Kappy with a short detour at Karnos. There's never any focus on the rest of the game or trying to get reads elsewhere. I don't find anything compelling in your push on Kappy either.

[karnos]

Catching up, I'm curious to see how dierfire responds to the points brought up. Not sure how I stand on that, as I find dierfire's posting style hard to read, but it seemed to be largely town motivated prior to the odd unvote/revote.

I'd love to see some more input from Persivul, I think I understand his switch to Johnny but clarification would be nice.

MathBlade is still my top scumread, but his more recent posts seem to be more thoughtful, almost like he has had a change of heart... I think it's an act, he missed his easy lynch push on me and now he is trying to cover up his previous desperation with a different play style.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So back from V/LA …

I’ll be starting my read in earnest today but have kept a soft eye on the thread via phone since replacing in.

First issue that needs to be clearly stated (and this is mostly for the benefit of Qui and Math) –

Rule Number 1 of Mafia – in a closed set-up you do NOT lynch a claimed investigation role that is un-CCed Day 1. You just don’t. If the claim is countered? Sure it is possible. We will get more information (from Karnos’s potential claimed results, future interactions and Nightkills) to sort him.

Specifically on Karnos’s claim – Neopolitan is actually stronger than some other Non-Alignment Cop roles as it provides 100% clearance with Vanilla Town results. It isn’t as strong for catching scum outside of incorrect VT claims but vetting VTs is huge from a standpoint of putting scum in a bad position as to whether to choose to kill suspected Power-roles or kill VTs who are 100% clear. Any time you handcuff the scum in some way you are benefitting Town.

[qubixes]

Alright.

UNVOTE: karnos

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reads as of page 5 –

One of Wingback or karnos is scum. No doubt in my mind. Possibly both. Both displayed what I call “Newbie Scum Awkward Entrance” syndrome by which I mean that newer players who are scum tend to over-explain themselves in RVS. Sick’s was obvious and Pers picked up on it – he self-contradicted in an effort to look casual. Mulitple people correctly picked up on karnos’s over-explanantion about why he was unvoting a RVS vote. I can link to a game GreyIce and I played together (he was scum) where I caught his Newb partner with his first post for showing NSAE syndrome if anyone is interested.

Chumba I can see as a very likely partner for Wingback due to the defense of Sick and his dance around “I wasn’t defending I was expressing an opinion”.

On the other side of that coin if Wingback is Town then Shardyhood’s entrance at 113 is pure scum who knows Sick wasn’t scum and wants to stake an early Town position. I agree with Pers’s observation that his post was devoid of actual content and looked very much like fake-hunting.

Kappy I want to lynch for several things – the way he tries to position RVS voting and so such as meaningless ( it isn’t, it is just as much of the game as every other portion) and the vote on Pers which could be a chainsaw if Wingback is scum. But this may be a playstyle issue I have with him. Need more input.

No other strong reads. Maybe a few preliminary Town gut but I need more content from them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reads as of page 10 –

Town read on Missy has solidified nicely. 143 and 146 are examples of Town oriented thinking.

Shadyhood has turned to a solid scum read. His earlier stance of scum in [Pers / Quib / Snork / Species / Saru] has lead to a vote-park on Pers and no indication of attempts to sort any of the other players. That line of thinking has just dropped. 230 I see as laying the groundwork to vote Kappy who happened to be a trendy wagon at that sage.

Chumba’s still a viable scum-read. Parking his vote on Kappy for the reasons expressed in 173 is scummy as self-voting in RVS is not alignment indicative.

Saru I had some concerns with regarding his reads list at 214 but overall I get a Town feel from his interactions now that he has picked up the pace of posting.

Kappy I am having serious trouble sorting. The mounting pressure on him with several poor reasons (Chumba has already been discussed, karnos’s hop looks opportunistic given karnos’s main focus on defense, Mecha’s reasoning and 233 I also find troubling) at a gut level looks like pressure on a Town player. On the other side I see him as not doing independent scum-hunting. 192 – posts in this area regarding karnos’s claimed meta seem to me as following along (sheeping Pers’s claim that it was scum meta and not looking at other games which karnos refuted with said other games).

Town reads – Masq / Saru
Scum read - Johnny, Buldge, karnos, Wingback

[MechaGoomba]

Now for the post I quoted. It is the Wingback paragraph that really sold me you were town.

So you were sold that I was town in 601. Makes sense, that explains the shift between 561 and 722. However, that still doesn't explain anything related to the quoted part of 721. Did you not consider me to be a "champion of the karnos wagon"?


On reread, Dierfire is starting to look a bit off to me. One thing I've noticed is that he over-explains everything. Lots of his posts seem to be packed full of information in order to hide the fact that his actual reads are extremely uncontroversial.
Take 228 & 229: He townreads Persivul but doesn't actually engage with the arguments of the people suspecting him, puts a lot of effort into a townread on Chumba despite the fact that she wasn't being scumread or doing anything super important at the time, ambivalently doubtcasts on Sick with a side of preflip associative, and then uses a ton of IIOA to say essentially "I don't get Kappy's Sick reads progression".
Nothing risky, nothing that needs to be explained that much, and yet it's a full screenlength of text. I haven't seen any past game where he did this; has anyone played with him enough to say for certain?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reads as of page 20–

Dislike Pers’s 252. He calls out Saru for giving a L-2 warning as LAMIST but ignored Mecha as doing that exact same thing on the same page. Also troubling is the fact that it seems most driven by Saru voting him. Then we have 261 which my limited experience with Pers says is coming from Town – poor reasoning Town but Town. And then we get 341 which is so head-bangingly wrong I think it probably comes from Town Pers.

Wingback’s entrance is a step towards Town. Several of his reads synch nicely with my own (Masq / Johnny / karnos). Will need to see more in coming pages.

How has Shady not attracted more attention by this point? Seriously 323 is just him popping in to make non-alignment indicative comments about Mecha and continue to say Pers is scum with no development in reads anywhere else? Johnny’s replace in post is a huge bunch of mostly IIoA and buddying. Will be keeping an eye on how players react in the coming pages.

Mecha is falling into my active-scum reads. Posts like 331 illustrate why. As an example - Insinuating that Saru shouldn’t be voting Pers because he disagrees with Sick’s reasoning for Pers scum. Completely ignores the fact that disagreeing with a player’s analysis on why someone is scum means you read that player as Town. Players can have crap reasons for scum-reading someone and pointing that out even if you scum-read that same players is very Pro-Town. That is a very scummy insinuation. And once again Mecha posts a LAMIST style “L-2 warning” post.

Bulge’s replace in might shift me away from Chumba as scum if he continues to be proactive on Shadyhood as scum point from 342.

Karnos is probably scum. 359 is so chock full of contradictions (Species is being scum-read for not moving an RVS vote but karnos is Town reading Chumba when Chumba actively said he was going to do just that as an example) and lack of logical reads that I can’t see it coming from Town. I now see the frustration from Mathblade and Quib regarding not lynching karnos as very understandable. I find the fact that I am scum-reading the Shady slot and he specifically avoids any sort of read on it at all a good sign of partnership there.

Town – Masq / Saru
Maybe Town – Pers / Quib
Scum – Johnny / karnos / Bulge
Maybe Scum – Mecha / Wingback

[MagnaofIllusion]

Probably don't have to say this, but if Karnos claims, don't CC..

Ok interrupting my recap for a direct question -

Why exactly did you say this Quib?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reads til my official replacement in (Page 24 / 594) –

And Wingback immediately reverses field on karnos. Since we know that scum have Daytalk this could be a signal that something got worked out in the Mafia QT. And also starts distancing from the Mizzy (Masq) Town read which I dislike. Was ready to push him back to the Scum read pool but 567 makes solid sense. An element I dislike is that he hasn’t moved his vote from Pers who he isn’t scum-reading to Johnny by this point.

Mathblade’s entrance seems reasonable, if misguided on “Wingback and karnos are partners” angle. Snork who was a non-factor moves to soft Town read.

karnos’s 586 points me right at Bulge and Johnny as the best places to investigate for possible partners. The subsequent flail at at Kappy pushes Kappy into Maybe Town for me.

Mecha is moved back to Null for his dogged insistence on karnos. Similar reasoning pushes Quib to Maybe Town.

Town – Masq / Saru / Quib
Maybe Town – Pers
Scum – Johnny / karnos / Bulge
Maybe Scum – Wingback

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Johnny

The fact that his wagon post ‘karnos claim’ fell completely apart with nothing resembling Town posting from Johnny is a sign that it was a good place for votes if you like lynching scum. Seriously look at the following –

I mean honestly the reason I wasn't talking when Karnos was the wagon is because I was fine with him getting lynched. I wasn't going to push it because I wasn't caught up, but I didn't really have a problem with it either. The reason I started posting more is actually because he claimed. I don't think we should lynch him today. Pretty sure I've said as much. I want to say I believe him for now because that's a weird claim to pull out of thin air, but I don't know him or his play well enough to full on townread him just yet.

Which of my games did you look at out of curiosity?

This smells very much of scum not wanting to actually apply pressure to a partner (never voting the wagon he supposedly agreed with) and hoping for a shift away without a claim. Once karnos claimed and enough pressure came off he feels the need to put some words down in thread. And this –

Ugh I'm so much better at townreads.

Persy fell off the earth when I got here. As the only non-Bulge player that knows me that makes me nervous.

I didn't like the bits of the Karnos case quibbley bolted on when I asked him about it upon replacing in.

That's all I got really. Won't be lynching Dire, Wingaling, Mech or Masq today.

1. Weak excuse why he’s never bothered to cast a vote since replacing in and doesn't in this post.
2. Assertion that he might suspect Pers but written in a way that allows him to distance from that as a scum read in a heartbeat.
3. Another soft maybe scum-read on Quib as with 2.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Mecha

- why are you voting on the same wagon with karnos?

[qubixes]

Probably don't have to say this, but if Karnos claims, don't CC..

Ok interrupting my recap for a direct question -

Why exactly did you say this Quib?

Because I felt very strong that Karnos was strong and I thought a lynch could happen without a town PR getting outed. Looking back, it seems I was wrong. I thought Karnos was going to fake claim, because of the "whatever lynch me" to the "I'm a PR" transition. Well, looking back he claimed PR after my post. Maybe I was wrong, but saying it didn't seem like it could do much harm.

Btw, reading back. Post 505 "You have time, use it." could be interpreted as a scum slip. Too bad English has the same word for singular and plural. I guess it doesn't matter much at this point.

[qubixes]

@Magna: Can you elaborate a bit on your Saru town read?

I was town reading him somewhere in the middle, but I'm doubting that read again. His voting pattern looks really quite bad imo. He has jumped on three wagons that were already formed: sick, persivul, kappy. Then he calls out Karnos for being scummy, but doesn't vote.

I'm not going to convince anyone at this point on lynching Karnos today. But there is a difference here with a regular cop claim. If Karnos is actually a scum neopolitan, lynching him today does take away a very useful tool for scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because I felt very strong that Karnos was strong and I thought a lynch could happen without a town PR getting outed. Looking back, it seems I was wrong. I thought Karnos was going to fake claim, because of the "whatever lynch me" to the "I'm a PR" transition. Well, looking back he claimed PR after my post. Maybe I was wrong, but saying it didn't seem like it could do much harm.

Yeah - the most Town thing a PR can do is counter-claim scum. People get hung up on a Cop not counter-claiming but forget that a Town Cop counterclaiming a scum Cop is the exact same thing as said Town Cop getting a guilty overnight. With the added possibility of a Town protective role meaning said Town Cop isn't a necessarily dead overnight and is confirmed Town.

Here is a quote from Scum in a recently completed Open game I was in -

No, no town would be dumb enough to CC you in this circumstance when you're likely fishing for the real doctor if you're scum.

I'm asking BTW.

Here's the original link to read if you want - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=65953

Summary - this was an open set-up with only two PRs - a Jailkeeper and a Doctor both for Town. That post by Titus occured after a very scummy looking player had claimed Doctor Day 5. Said Doctor had hard defended the Day 4 scum slot lynch Days 2-3 and was jailed on the Night afterwards. And had claimed to not action Nights 1,2 and 4.

Scum was pressing hard for said player to be lynched without a counter-claim because it was they were obviously trying to draw out the 'real Doctor'. Suffice it to say even though the Doctor was my number 1 scum-read I was not going to lynch them without a counter-claim. And that was Day 5 with much less room to work with as opposed to Day 1 here.

The reason you don't lynch without a counter-claim is that, even if you are 99% sure you are right, the downside to Town if everyone is wrong is devastating to Town's chances. There are always additional chances to re-assess Day 2 or down the line with more information.

[Saru]

@Magna: Can you elaborate a bit on your Saru town read?

I was town reading him somewhere in the middle, but I'm doubting that read again. His voting pattern looks really quite bad imo. He has jumped on three wagons that were already formed: sick, persivul, kappy. Then he calls out Karnos for being scummy, but doesn't vote.

Yes, I called Karnos scummy

initially

, but if you read through my ISO, I started to be more conflicted on my read of him as the arguments went on between Karnos and others. Eventually, I said I was neutral. I see no point in voting a neutral read when I already had my vote on someone I felt was genuinely scummier, which was Kappy.

And about being on wagons, instead of looking at me jumping onto wagons, it'd be better if you looked at the reasoning/motivation behind why I chose to vote who I have throughout the game so far. Reasoning for all my votes can be found in their respective posts, but if you need a summary for each, I'd be more than glad to provide you with one.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna: Can you elaborate a bit on your Saru town read?

I was town reading him somewhere in the middle, but I'm doubting that read again. His voting pattern looks really quite bad imo. He has jumped on three wagons that were already formed: sick, persivul, kappy. Then he calls out Karnos for being scummy, but doesn't vote.

In my read-through I found his posts to resonate with me as coming from a Town perspective. I've already addressed 214 but read and look at that yourself. Setting aside whether you agree with all the conclusions the fact that there is a follow-able train of thought in his posting that I think shows actual Town intent to solve the game. He's also "casting a wide net" as it were - he's interacting with many different slots. That to me is a sign of Town.

How are you judging a voting pattern with no flips again? I ask because of those three I can certainly see his reasoning for voting sick and I can understand why he voted Pers (although I disagree with him on that vote).

Personally I find Johnny's slot's voting pattern (or better put lack thereof) to be much more indicative of scum. What do you think of Johnny?

[qubixes]

@Magna: Thanks for the elaboration on the CC stuff. I'll keep it in mind.

I'm more worried about the timing of the votes/cases. It seems a bit delayed from what is going on. Maybe that is slightly unfair in the case of the sick wagon, because that was his first post. But I feel that so far he hasn't been exploring many new directions, just grinding out the ones that were already there. The Persivul attack felt over the top to me. I agree that his reasoning has been solid as far as I can see. I'll look at the wide net casting at some point.

His predecessor was very close to the top of my scum list. It felt very much over the top, trying to present some kind of confident image. I think his wall looked alright when I read it. Could read it again to see if I find something fishy. His semi-attack on me about the misinterpretations did feel a bit like shade casting, but I'm of course a little biased. The sitting back while the Karnos wagon is building also seems rather scummy, especially considering he asks why Karnos isn't lynched yet in his read up. The reason I'm a little hesitant is the "I'm busy" part. I could see the lack of voting and general apathy result from just not being really engaged in the game. I feel like I don't have a clear grasp on the slot yet, though to be honest I don't feel very strong on anyone besides Karnos really.

[qubixes]

Yes, I called Karnos scummy

initially

, but if you read through my ISO, I started to be more conflicted on my read of him as the arguments went on between Karnos and others. Eventually, I said I was neutral. I see no point in voting a neutral read when I already had my vote on someone I felt was genuinely scummier, which was Kappy.

And about being on wagons, instead of looking at me jumping onto wagons, it'd be better if you looked at the reasoning/motivation behind why I chose to vote who I have throughout the game so far. Reasoning for all my votes can be found in their respective posts, but if you need a summary for each, I'd be more than glad to provide you with one.

As I said, I did look at the reasoning. I do think it is solid enough (kappy vote maybe the least convincing to me). But I also have to account for the possibility that you're playing solid scum. I don't actually strongly scum read you at this point. But in every list you are a top town read, and I currently feel differently. So, I want to figure out why others read you as top town. Makes sense?

[Persivul]

The reason you don't lynch without a counter-claim is that, even if you are 99% sure you are right, the downside to Town if everyone is wrong is devastating to Town's chances. There are always additional chances to re-assess Day 2 or down the line with more information.

If we're giving him a pass due to the claim, what should we expect in return? Should we collectively determine the target? Let him choose? If we let him choose, does he give VT results only, or all results?

I haven't thought it all through, but we should. If he's scum, whether neapolitan or not, we can use results against him.