Mini 1800 - Game Over

[JohnnyFarrar]

C u soon bb

[MechaGoomba]

I can (partially) explain this now.

Are you able to say, at this time, why you couldn't explain it in 724?

The essence is that Kappy's read changed with frequencies and degrees that should require stronger reasons than what he gave.

I agree with you on this, but my belief is that it stems not from Kappy being scum but from failure in communication. As evidence, consider 202.

I'll admit to having difficulty keeping track of the conversation between MagnaofIllusion and MechaGoomba

That's perfectly fine. I couldn't either.

[Dierfire]

I return.

@MechaGoomba

At the time of my 724, I felt fairly confident that a chronological reading of my posts would have made clear my reasoning. I decided when I came back that I could stand to explain a few more details.
I will consider further your interpretation of Kappy's play.

---
With the deadline approaching, I think that I should read over the leading wagons (players being voted and players casting votes).

[MathBlade]

I think karnos is scum but I’m not voting for him because it is stupid to do so given his claim and the game-state.

I don't do that sort of thing. If someone's likely to be scum, vote them. Claims shift people into the "not likely scum" category when they're not CCed, and into the "definitely scum" category when they are.

Johnny acquired 4 votes in a fairly short period of time after karnos’s claim. If Johnny is Town then there is little chance scum are just going to let that wagon fall by the wayside – especially if karnos is scum. Establishing a strong alternate wagon would be important given the pushes by Math and Quib to lynch karnos even with the claim. Yet the wagon which could have been propelled forward by scum instead was allowed to fizzle.

1) Couldn't you have said that before I badgered you about it? The thing where you're as vague as you can possibly be until called on it is really annoying.
2) That statement assumes that a counterwagon would be needed. If karnos was town, mafia would be gleeful Math and Quib were trying to do their work for them. Given that you said your Johnny read is unaffected by whether or not karnos is scum, that doesn't really make sense.
3) This close to deadline, a fizzling wagon is a benefit for scum. If town ends up scrambling to not No Lynch, mafia can direct it as they please.
4) Insulting the intelligence of those that disagree with you is an easy way to ensure you'll never convince them to agree.


Right now I'm gut-reading Magna as scum, but I'm worried I'm confbiasing and/or blinded by frustration, so I'm not willing to vote him yet.
I'm planning to reread his ISO to find what it is that bugs me; if someone else could look as well to make sure it's not just me, that would be great.

PE:

No one has provided a decent reason why Karnos is town. In a face to face Mafia game in Chicago there was a werewolf cop (Cheetory6) who claimed cop and no one CC'd and so everyone assumed he was town and then coasted to a victory. So yes. If I do not believe cop claims I want them lynched because they can and will fuck with you if you let them.

Just because a bad thing happened once doesn't mean you have to be paranoid about it in every single future case.
How many times have you played in a game where an unCCed cop was town and provided useful results? I'd assume more than one.

I absolutely should be paranoid. Paranoia is an excellent thing. It is about when to apply that paranoia that you are disagreeing with. Yes the number of games where an unCC'd cop provided useful evidence is more than 1, but those unCC'd cops didn't crumb other roles and didn't do even a quarter of those things here. In the games where the cop was unCC'd and was scum (face to face games), we traded a townie for the sake of that information when we did it. Now I'm going to ask you: Is your site theory worth potentially a different townie being lynched? For me, I always evaluate the claim based upon how the rest of their play has been. If there is any shred of redeeming qualities I back off. However no one points to anything but the claim which infuriates me.

The other thing is I really don't like Dierfire's voting pattern further after their response to me asking. It looks like on post 510 that he crumbs vengeful. However, that is not the claim they ended up doing. The most likely result is that since the Karnos wagon was picking up steam that scum said to start dropping off power role crumbs.If he was really evaluating Karnos for role claims, why would he not be more suspicious when Karnos claims? They then link to 657 in the following post as a post they agree with.

657 is an absolutely horrible post. Horrible. Masquerade says if they were scum they would have claimed sooner. More like if they were town they would have claimed the first time they were at L-1. Secondly, the lack of a counterwagon is a shitty argument here for two reasons. A) There were a fuck ton of replacements into the game. Arguing that there wasn't a counterwagon is ridiculous. Hell, if Masquerade really suspected me of being scum, the argument can be made that I was forced to bus Karnos(more on this later regarding Magna). If Masquerade really suspected me at that time I don't think Masquerade would have brought up the lack of a counterwagon followed up with lynched no matter what in the same post. Lynched no matter what would mean you'd look for scum bussers not a counter wagon.

This brings me back to Masquerade's posts:

Their biggest gripe was why I didn't bring it up when it happened. I only had minutes in order to get my posts out to try to understand because I was on VLA. I didn't have time to go into a wall into every little instance Masq was scummy. In general I pointed to their lack of passion and how they aren't pushing me. Then they come back and say they are okay to move back to Johnny if they have to for time. Again -- I did not ignore your posts. I either addressed them in another person's answer or they were no longer relevant. Their next post is about how they want my lynch. Apathetic again no reasons. There's no push. They aren't poking at what they find bad about my posts and trying to explain themselves to everyone. They are just "I want this" (paraphrase).

Magna then also tries to suggest that I could be bussing Karnos. This along with Wingback's 782 is sketchy as well as Masq's argument of a lack of a counterwagon is sketchy. I already FoS'd these two as a potential combo. This looks like a way to support having a read without actually having one. They also ask why I did not vote Masq in that slot. This is really telling as it looks like Magna is trying to get buy in from a player that seems mostly town read rather than actually having stances. That second paragraph is also bullshit. Claims do not move votes. People vote/unvote based on what they read. Secondly a gut town read when I was reading was just that. Gut. If something changes to give my gut indigestion, I poke at that thing til it no longer gives me indigestion or confirms itself as eternal bullshit spewer deserving of lynch. That town lean was before Dierfire started doing crazy vote shit.

Johnny Farrar is a town read based upon meta I have read and the current events in the thread. This lynch looks strongly like something weird is going on. IMHO Mecha's warning bells about the Johnny lynch are probably accurate. Furthermore, I don't like how when I suggested Masquerade and Magna's slot as scum and now they are both dropping shade on my slot while actively pushing other agendas or none at all.

If we don't lynch Karnos, we should lynch within these three IMHO.

VOTE: Masquerade

I'm changing my vote to Masquerade because Dierfire looks to be making an effort while Masquerade is doing the exact same shit I called them out for in 784 and they have had 24 hours to give a reads list with actual stances in it.

Manga/Dierfire -- You should give a reads list as well. If Karnos is scum, then it is highly probable that I am wrong on at least one of you three. Do something other than respond. Breathe. Live. Right now for all three of your slots I'm having a hard time finding what you believe. (I was including Dierfire in this but they already said they were going to when I pressed preview for this post.)

[Dierfire]

JohnnyFarrar wagon first:

JohnnyFarrar

is an interesting read. I specifically don't want this to be a meta-read or an associative read, but that's what I have. For the former, I recall seeing previous games in which he was incorrectly lynched for being "lazy" (not my words). I don't want to try to track down whether there are variations in the way that that presents between his Town games and his Mafia games; I would rather judge him by his (eventual) actions. The latter is at least easier: his vocal support for lynching karnos (469) that is never followed by a vote (693 offers the justification that he didn't want to push something before catching up), combined with his comparatively weak reasons for reading him as Town (755 and 760 are good examples--that a new Mafia player would not create such a claim and that Mafia players don't often claim their true roles) would make good sense from a partner if karnos is Mafia. They don't make as much sense if karnos is Town and JohnnyFarrar is Mafia; that level of specificity is not needed to avoid lynching a Town player making that claim. One thing that I can say is that enough players have made noises about suspecting me that JohnnyFarrar should not be Mafia if his partners are not among them (that is, if all players muttering about me are Town and JohnnyFarrar is Mafia, then the Mafia players are missing an opportunity).

Persivul

has not been as active recently, but I don't see anything suspicious in his posts. The reason for the vote on JohnnyFarrar (658) seems to be a lack of helpful activity, which is a weak but not suspicious reason. My impression from 228 (Town) remains.

Wingback

was Sickofit1138. I agreed with most reads on entry in 452 (I noted the exception for the read on Mizzytastic in 494). He's been more open to what karnos was saying than I am, but the perspective sounds plausible from a Town player. The reasons given for the vote on JohnnyFarrar in 673 are essentially the same as above--a lack of helpful activity, which is easy to do as a Mafia player (reasons were given well before the vote, in 565). I still think that I'd lynch Kappy first.

MagnaofIllusion

has written quite a bit recently. I don't know how I'd analyze the association with karnos (expressing suspicion while not wanting to lynch the claim is where I am as well, but is plausible to me from a few other angles). His reasons for voting for JohnnyFarrar are good--better than most others on that wagon. While he also presents the inactivity angle in 750, he additionally noted the possible association between JohnnyFarrar and karnos in 740 and some wagon dynamics in 785). I'll call this a Town read.

qubixes

has been as close to a "gut read" as I get for some time now. He appears to be voting for JohnnyFarrar because MagnaofIllusion persuaded him to do so (754). I do not have a problem with MagnaofIllusion being the one to persuade him. In the spirit of avoiding confirmation bias I'll say that this is a weak read--but it remains a weak Town read.

MechaGoomba

also has reasons that are a bit stronger than average for being on the JohnnyFarrar wagon--essentially, that JohnnyFarrar is posting in a way designed to appear more analytical than it is (659). He acknowledges that some of the activity concerns are stylistic (716) but appears to have determined that this game's activity is less constructive than others' (769). I recall agreeing with him during the wagon on karnos. This is a Town read.

Overall

I'm content to wait a bit longer to try to sort JohnnyFarrar. If no useful action emerges for me to analyze, then I'll concede that I have no specific reason to oppose the lynch. I'm reading most of the players voting for JohnnyFarrar as Town (of them, I'd lynch Wingback first).

That's it for tonight. The MathBlade wagon is next.

[Masquerade]

I'm here just really quick before having to go, and the bits my eyes caught in mathblade's post made me not even want to read it because it's a big collection of misreps.
Mathblade or me today. Lets go.

[Masquerade]

I have never done this 1v1-thing before but now I get why people want to. I want to prove math is wrong SO BADLY I want to flip for it.

[Masquerade]

Ofc I'd rather have math lynched because I'm p sure he is scum and while people are townreading me apparently (not mathblade ofc), nobody has talked to me about my read there so my assumption is nobody has a problem with it.

[Persivul]

Persivul has not been as active recently, but I don't see anything suspicious in his posts. The reason for the vote on JohnnyFarrar (658) seems to be a lack of helpful activity, which is a weak but not suspicious reason.

I'm also concerned about buddying. He mentioned twice that he has played with me before. The first time included a compliment. But IIRC we only played once before; he was town and I was scum; and it was a scum win. If he were really trying to sort me, you'd think he would also say something like

pers was scum in that game and this game seems different/the same

.

[karnos]

Too many the huge wall posts lately. Can't anyone write a concise short point anymore?

We should be lynching Mathblade.

Mechagoomba, you asked me what my reads are when I was about to by lynched, but now nothing is being done with them. Look at Mathblade's iso, there is no slow logical progression. Two reading posts, and then a massive wall of text demanding my lynch followed by immediate vote to L-1 561 562 You can see how hastily the post was crafted because he calls Persivul vs Sickofit "TvT" while at the same time calling Wingback "probably scum" - this sloppy mistake shows he didn't really do the work, but rather was just desperate to get out a hit piece on me ASAP before the wagon lost momentum.

666 also strikes me as scum motivated, pushing for a lynch on Father's day when some players won't be able to check in.

His posts since my claim have just been focused on getting any other player lynched while keeping the idea that I am scum on top of everyone's mind. I get a sense that I'm being setup, like scum have a blocker or something, so they can push for my lynch tomorrow when I don't get a result.


A few updated reads:

Persivul: I still have a town sense from him, but it seems like he is posting less than in other games, that could be NAI though. prob town

MagnaofIllusion: My read of species was based largely on inactivity, and I am seeing a totally different side from the slot with a more active player in it. It almost feels like he is saying "karnos is scum but we can't lynch him due to the claim", setting things up to lynch me later, but to be fair that is probably just personal bias. null

Masquerade: Was mostly a null read, but the recent interactions with Mathblade moves him to a solid town read. My sense is that masq and mathblade couldn't be same alignment.

Mathblade: See above. I am in the minority here though, and I am will to switch votes to prevent a no-lynch, but would much prefer to just lynch mathblade. scum

JohnnyFarrar: I really don't see the scum read here, but maybe I'm being bias because he defended me to a degree. He can't keep using the "busy" excuse forever, especially as we approach the end of the game day. null/town

Wingback: I don't know anymore. If he was scum looking for towncred by stopping my wagon, he must have been tempted to actually hammer after my claim and he didn't, so that tempers my previous scum read. He could be scum playing the long con, but I'm finding it less likely at this point. null (not due to lack of indication, but due to conflicting indicators)

[Persivul]

Personally I don't feel like going back through 33 pages until we have a flip.

[qubixes]

I have never done this 1v1-thing before but now I get why people want to. I want to prove math is wrong SO BADLY I want to flip for it.

Don't understand what the point of proving him wrong is going to do. If you flip town, is that going to make him scum? Why are you so sure that he is scum? Can you give me a (concise) explanation why he can't be town? I read the back and forth arguments, but I don't see why Mathblade has to be scum.

[Masquerade]

You can see how hastily the post was crafted because he calls Persivul vs Sickofit "TvT" while at the same time calling Wingback "probably scum" - this sloppy mistake shows he didn't really do the work, but rather was just desperate to get out a hit piece on me ASAP before the wagon lost momentum.

This.

@Qubixes: Here it is very, very concise:

Snork wasn't impressive at all. You so far have focussed most on Karnos, you also kept your vote there very long and in one of my previous posts I explained why I think that's scummy (683). You keep throwing shade my way but you don't engage with me and you ignored what I said about you in 593 and 669.

And math keeps on ignoring or miss-reading everything I say. Do you agree with his observations of me in his 803? To me it feels like he went through my iso and looked for keywords he could use against me, but he got a lot of stuff so wrong I'm not even going to dignify it with a response.
And why is he starting a new wagon on Dierfire, which picks up a little bit of steam, then switches to another new wagon with now even less time left?
My flip won't prove mathblade's alignment in any way or form, I mostly hope that everyone sees math's case on me blows. I offer myself into a 1v1 because of how certain I am that he's scum.

[MechaGoomba]

I didn't have time to go into a wall into every little instance Masq was scummy.

No. No. Absolutely not.
I know for a fact you are capable of posting without drowning the thread in walls. Even an extremely quick skim of your past games proves that.
Stop complaining that you can't bludgeon people into agreeing with you by throwing words at them until they assume you're right.
Start making arguments that people will be able to read and understand.

That town lean was before Dierfire started doing crazy vote shit.

Explain to me, without walling, without assuming anything is obvious, why moving from L-2 to L-1 could possibly be scum-motivated, as well as why the explanation Dierfire has given is inadequate.

Examine your assumptions. Your argument is built on false premises.

this sloppy mistake shows they didn't really do the work, but rather was just desperate to get out a hit piece on me ASAP before the wagon lost momentum.

I feel that the wagon was losing momentum already. It had stalled hard at L-2 when we were doing the long back-and-forths; the masonspec was what got people voting for you seriously.
I would say that MathBlade's read does look rushed, but that sort of thing is relatively common when people are just replacing in; if I had to guess, I'd say they were doing a really quick reread so they could get caught up and contributing quickly.

I mostly hope that everyone sees math's case on me blows. I offer myself into a 1v1 because of how certain I am that they're scum.

You have 0 votes on you; I think everyone already sees how bad Math's case is. However, I'm not convinced they're scum; it's easy for town to go super tunnely, super wally, and end up hurting the town by burying everything in giant TvT 1v1s. Bad case =/= scum; rushed case =/= scum; stupid case =/= scum, even.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Masq

– You didn’t answer this the first time. Please do so in your next post.

I'm afraid I'm starting to get biased from pre-associations.

Please elaborate if this has to do with my slot predecessor or other games.

--

Too many the huge wall posts lately. Can't anyone write a concise short point anymore?

Can you give me a (concise) explanation why he can't be town?

Mafia is a forums game based on READING. Reading isn’t a hardship.

Frankly I was sick to death over this attitude my first go-round on MS and I’m not any less sick of it now.

I absolutely should be paranoid. Paranoia is an excellent thing. It is about when to apply that paranoia that you are disagreeing with. Yes the number of games where an unCC'd cop provided useful evidence is more than 1, but those unCC'd cops didn't crumb other roles and didn't do even a quarter of those things here. In the games where the cop was unCC'd and was scum (face to face games), we traded a townie for the sake of that information when we did it.

Now I'm going to ask you: Is your site theory worth potentially a different townie being lynched?

For me, I always evaluate the claim based upon how the rest of their play has been. If there is any shred of redeeming qualities I back off. However no one points to anything but the claim which infuriates me.

1. Where is said other crumb you are claiming as a basis for your paranoia?
2. Before you said the UnCCed cop cruised to victory which ostensibly means there were more Town lynched than just one. Why is it, in your theory, as now or never situation? That’s not the case at all.
3. The bolded looks like a slip to me – you specifically say talk about the risk of a “different Townie being lynched” when you are talking about lynching karnos? Ooops a little bit of unconscious knowledge came leaking out right there didn’ t it.

The second the Johnny wagon becomes less viable than Math’s I am moving there.

It almost feels like he is saying "karnos is scum but we can't lynch him due to the claim", setting things up to lynch me later,

JohnnyFarrar: I really don't see the scum read here, but maybe I'm being bias because he defended me to a degree. He can't keep using the "busy" excuse forever, especially as we approach the end of the game day.

So karnos – let’s talk about setting up positions to make it easy to justify later lynches and why this isn’t what you are doing with Johnny here …

[JohnnyFarrar]

Why does the wagon on me keep faltering? Am I gut town to that many people? That shit makes me nervous?

[MechaGoomba]

Mafia is a forums game based on READING. Reading isn’t a hardship.

Mafia is an inherently social game; a game of communication. You can have the best reads in the world, but they're useless if you can't convince others.
This means that every town player should be trying both to put forth their own ideas as clearly as possible and examine the ideas of others. For some people, that means trying to read through a wall where they might just shrug and go on. For some people, this means trying to make their walls just a little bit shorter so others will be more likely to read them.
(Bit hypocritical, I admit, but I never claimed to be perfect.)

The second the Johnny wagon becomes less viable than Math’s I am moving there.

[screams silently]
If Johnny is scum, you just gave scum the perfect signal to start subtly piling onto Math in hopes of flipping the votes of people like you.
If Math is scum, you gave scum the perfect signal that they need to end the day before the leading wagon switches.

So karnos – let’s talk about setting up positions to make it easy to justify later lynches and why this isn’t what you are doing with Johnny here …

If you think Johnny is scum, why are you saying this? Do you expect scum!karnos to lay prior justification for a bus of a teammate that's obviously getting lynched?
If you think Johnny is town, why are you voting him? The Math wagon isn't that far behind -- a lot of the players voting Johnny scumread Math to a lesser extent.

PE:

Why does the wagon on me keep faltering? [...] That shit makes me nervous.

Are you worried that it's the town causing your wagon to falter or the scum? If the town, why are you worried about people townreading you? If the scum, why do you expect that the scum is trying to halt your mislynch?
This reads like you decided to post a townie observation but didn't realize that, if you were town, you'd know for a fact it didn't mean anything.

I flat out cannot think of any reason why town would be worried about the scum causing their wagon to falter, but that's the only way I can interpret these implications.

[karnos]

Mafia is a forums game based on READING. Reading isn’t a hardship.


So karnos – let’s talk about setting up positions to make it easy to justify later lynches and why this isn’t what you are doing with Johnny here …

Okay, lets be clear. I want to lynch mathblade, I think he is the most obvious scum.

However, I will vote Johnny if the need arises. This is a team game. While I like to think I have it all figured out, truthfully it's all a lot of guesswork and hunches. If the majority, including my main town reads, decide to lynch someone, I'll move my vote to help it happen. I'm not going to be stubborn and cause a no-lynch.

As to your first point above, the game is very much a writing game as much as it is a reading game. Sometimes a point that could be made in a couple sentences becomes a meandering page of text. Say more with less! I'm honestly not expecting any real change in this regard, it was mostly just an expression to share my feeling on the matter.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I'm less worried about the wagon itself and more worried about the people on it. I knew when I decided not to reread that I'd be risking getting lynched, and the people hopping off for no reason are freaking me out. Twist it however you like, this shit is making me paranoid

[Persivul]

A person calling himself paranoid always immediately strikes me as LAMIST.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Don't actually knife what that means

[JohnnyFarrar]

*know

[Masquerade]

@Masq

– You didn’t answer this the first time. Please do so in your next post.

I'm afraid I'm starting to get biased from pre-associations.

Please elaborate if this has to do with my slot predecessor or other games.

Oh wow this must be really important to you. I'm not elaborating because the condition you gave is false. Iow, it has nothing to do with you or your slot specifically.

[Dierfire]

MathBlade wagon next:

MathBlade

was rather committed to the vote on karnos, to the point of basing a number of reads on associations there. This is fine (well, not really fine, but there are good reasons to suspect karnos, and it's frustrating to let a suspect live due to role-related things). I don't like that MathBlade rolled this over into claiming that my sequence in 610 and 642 is suspicious regardless of whether karnos is Town or Mafia, especially as I feel that I've explained the sequence more than sufficiently. I really don't like that this doesn't extend to reading JohnnyFarrar as Mafia--I think that someone basing such associative reads on the presumption that karnos is Mafia should be fairly suspicious of JohnnyFarrar for stating suspicion of karnos without casting a vote. From the perspective of wagon dynamics, I also don't like the suggestion that JohnnyFarrar is Town, three suspicious players (me, Masquerade, and karnos) are not voting for JohnnyFarrar, and two are voting for MathBlade. That seems a bit strange (¿why are the Mafia players trying so hard to lynch MathBlade over JohnnyFarrar if both are Town?). There's enough here that I need to ask whether there's a good reason for MathBlade, as Mafia, to keep such focus on karnos and avoid the wagon on JohnnyFarrar.

Masquerade

I had read earlier (798, Null at that time). Since then, his offer to go directly against MathBlade feels theatrical (obviously the case against Masquerade advanced by MathBlade is wrong/weak/deficient in various areas, but the response feels overwrought to me). He also saw some of what I saw on Kappy (661) but hasn't come back to it (perhaps I could attribute that to the fact that Kappy is still largely absent). On the other hand, I feel that there are points to be made against MathBlade (certainly including some that Masquerade makes). Were his wish granted, I'd vote for MathBlade before I'd vote for Masquerade.

karnos

gets a temporary pass; I'm specifically avoiding putting further effort into reading karnos at this time.


---
Since I've read almost all of the players, I may as well finish.
The Bulge replaced Chumba. I was reading Chumba as Town, and The Bulge has been inactive.
I was leaning toward reading Saru as Town as well, but I should revisit this before proceeding (see below).
Kappy, of course, is my current vote.
---
I am reading so many players as Town that I could easily be wrong about someone, but the distribution of reads is also suffering from the fact that I'm punting on karnos. Unless I find something off when I read Saru, a vote on JohnnyFarrar certainly looks better now than it did last night.

[MechaGoomba]

the people hopping off for no reason are freaking me out [...] this shit is making me paranoid

You originally said "gut townreads", now you say "no reason"? Well, you were strongly implying "for no reason" in that post, but you didn't say it.
You say "no reason", but nobody does anything without a reason. So what you implied was "no reason they're sharing", meaning they're concealing their reasoning.
You say you're being paranoid, so does that mean "I suspect this but am not sure" or "I know this is wrong but I feel it anyway"? Because the way you're saying it, it's only implied whether or not you believe it.

Implying, equivocating, sowing the seeds of doubt by throwing out vague theories but failing to state a concrete position on who it makes town or scum, and all of this right near deadline where it strongly benefits scum to stall.
If this is what you're willing to put your energy into instead of proper content, I'm more confident than ever in my vote for you.

There's enough here that I need to ask whether there's a good reason for MathBlade, as Mafia, to keep such focus on karnos and avoid the wagon on JohnnyFarrar.

Hmm. Well, MathBlade started making giant posts once the Johnny wagon was picking up speed; before that, their posting was reasonably restrained. Could be a sign of panic?
On the other hand, having the only two players who are under serious suspicion as scumbuddies seems far too convenient.