Brexit

[springlullaby]

I'm pro Europe because I think it's the better long term strategy for its countries which can no longer rely on their old, post-colonial privileges and are faced with asian giants, the Americas, URSS and a prospective arabian geopolitical block.

But then I'm kinda cheering on for independent UK to succeed too because facilitating migration of cheaper labor from poorer member countries is a clear design of the Shengen Agreement (instances of expressions such as "increasingly defiant electorate" to characterize the brit people in the WP paper are chilling).

I also think the UK being successful will be good for France, because french people will just loath to do it like those damn english, so the euroskeptical/nationalist party that's been registering record high popularity rates may actually be less threatening for our presidential election in 2017. France exiting the EU would just be plain bad. We don't have a Commonwealth.

[mykonian]

ftr, I see some british looking at this as a possible start of a process to Europe. I'd be very surprised. Eurosceptics exists, but the environment is so different than in the UK, in terms of history, geography, but also demography (a fact that I didn't really appreciate before yesterday ). Unless this somehow becomes a success story, I don't see any country with as big an incentive to leave.

[Porochaz]

I'm gutted. Looks like I have to make a choice in the future about whether I want to remain part of (not so) Great Britain or be independent. I mean I'm not even sure Scotland would be able to be a part of the EU. Man, this is fucking awful. I fail to understand why this was even a joke between friends let alone a referendum let alone something we lost.

I don't want to leave but I don't see any prospects here anymore...

[N]

the uk is upset because they suck at eurovision

[Porochaz]

the uk is upset because they suck at eurovision

It was an actual argument used by the leave campaign...

"Non-EU countries win Eurovision more than EU countries"

How can you argue with that logic?

[imaginality]

one of the major reasons why this has happened is because there is a huge, gaping divide between the north and south of England (really, between London and not-London), where years of hardship and government cuts have been spun by said governments and right-wing media to blame immigration and the EU instead.

This. So much this.


Here's where my hope rests. My 'making the best of this situation' scenario (this is, assuming that we won't get to ignore or redo the vote) now goes something like this:

1. Conservatives bow to pressure for an early general election (it's so clear that no party yet has an electoral mandate for how to govern through this unprecedented situation I think it will be incredibly difficult to for them to ignore calls for a GE)

2. Labour hone in on the lies CDB mentioned. Take the following lines:
- Immigration: "Hey, working class people, we hear you're concerned about immigration. We've listened to you. We've looked into it. The real problem with immigration is not the immigrants themselves, it's that Tory governments won't invest enough in social housing etc etc. Immigrants themselves add to our economy. Let's be smart and massively invest in public housing etc."
- Jobs: "We'll stay part of the single market, we don't want to lose even more business and trade. But we recognise there's a need to create new jobs, too. That's why we're going to invest heavily in new industries, especially in the green technology space. Let's retrain our workforce to lead the way in this area."
- Sovereignty: "We understand why you wanted to reclaim some sovereignty from the EU. Now we can make the decisions that are best for us as a nation. And that's why it's important now to choose a government you can trust to make laws to benefit the whole of the UK, not just the few."
- Inequality: "Oh, and since we're leaving the EU, we really have to all be in this together. Time to crack down hard on corporate tax avoiders for starters"

3. The public, actually engaged in politics a bit more than usual and more open than usual to considering new arguments given the new situation we're in, listen and recognise that yes, the real issue has not been immigration in itself, but immigration coupled with lack of public investment, and vote Labour in.


Whether that's enough to get Northern Ireland and Scotland to stay part of the UK, I don't know. And whether any of this will happen, I don't know. But it seems

possible

, and that's a straw I'll clutch to for now.

[Psyche]

its the end of the world as we knoww it

[xRECKONERx]

I am so sorry to those of you who are directly affected by this. I would offer you a place to stay in America, and you totally have it, but with our own potential right wing populist xenophobe on the rise, it may not be the smartest move. But we can wait it out together!

[Porochaz]

With Corbyn's performance during this whole thing, my bet is Labour support will be poor right now. Particularly in Scotland. (Although an argument could be made that we don't matter anyway...)

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm not psyched about Corbyn's performance during the run-up to the referendum but I think it's very hard to tell how much of that is down to him and how much is down to media largely biased against him not giving him much of a platform. Not that that will change anything, of course.

[xRECKONERx]

[zoraster]

From Credit Suisse:



I think it may overplay the likelihood of the outcomes leading to Remain, but the overall decision tree seems fairly solid.

[xRECKONERx]

I don't see how there'd be a second referendum

[zoraster]

Well, in practice it's possible a general election (which is certainly possible after Cameron stands down) may act as a second referendum.

[Equinox]

I am so sorry to those of you who are directly affected by this. I would offer you a place to stay in America, and you totally have it, but with our own potential right wing populist xenophobe on the rise, it may not be the smartest move. But we can wait it out together!

This.

It's one thing to read about effects on the economy or politics, but it's an entirely other thing to read about how this personally affects you.

[Randomnamechange]

It means we're fucked. The Pound is already at an all time low level.

It's been used as a political points scoring tool, and it basically all anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Scared about what is going to happen.

This is a momentous occasion. We just watched a little bit of the world burn.

Also I feel for Scotland, who unanimously voted to remain and gets fucked anyway.

There is word that Scotland might be having another independence referendum after this.

On the bright side, Ireland may finally be unified.

I'm in tears. I don't know how to deal with this. All of the rights and privileges that my generation should have had are being burned down, one by one, by those who benefited from them.

I don't really want to leave behind the people and cultural connections that I have to the UK, but it feels untenable. I want to live somewhere inclusive with socialised healthcare. Now I guess I have to find somewhere new - probably in Europe, but who's to say, with the extra instability that will now come to the whole of the EU, that anywhere to which I move stays that way? And I don't even know what career I would take there, because I don't want this one any more. Buying a house feels like such a distant dream.

Honestly, right now, it's impossible to know what it is I'm supposed to be looking forward to.

These quotes pretty much sum up how I'm feeling right now. I really don't know what is going to happen, but it doesn't look good.

[KuroiXHF]

What does the queen have to say about this?

[Nexus]

Same as all the old people in Britain.

[inte]

S H O R T T H E G B P
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[inte]

also a steamy shit of immigrants will be dropped off at Dover because france don't give a fuq

[mykonian]

https://twitter.com/GoogleTrends/status ... 8820937728

One would think one would look at this before one voted

[Tere]

Shellshocked and miserable and not even really able to English about this at the moment.

The BBC coverage is OK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news

[Tere]

You may find this commentary interesting. Ian is the president of Eurasia Group, one of the major political risk commentators.

https://www.facebook.com/ianbremmer/vid ... 000569182/

[jasonT1981]

Whether that's enough to get Northern Ireland and Scotland to stay part of the UK, I don't know. And whether any of this will happen, I don't know. But it seems

possible

, and that's a straw I'll clutch to for now.

Scotland unsure, because they could have a referendum again. Northern Ireland is different though. the EU exit can not effect it in the terms of NI staying in UK as NI or leaving UK to be reunited with Irish Republic.

Northern Ireland has what is called the Good Friday Agreement. It was signed in 1998 as part of the 'peace' deal. In it, it talks about NI leaving the UK to unite with Ireland. And a unification referendum can ONLY be called when and if there is sufficient evidence that the will of the people of Northern Ireland is that of wanting to leave UK and re-join Ireland.

That is the only way a referendum can be called. And right now, Support for a border poll and Irish unification in NI stands at around only 15%. The main 'Republican' party that calls for Irish unity just took massive losses at the polls and support for them island wide is falling.

[zoraster]

Yeah, but this is a paradigm change.