Mini 1804: Poker Mafia (Game Over)

[Infinity 324]

Lane has been super open this game and his thoughts look genuine to me.

[Fire Assassin]

Lane has been super open this game and his thoughts look genuine to me.

I guess i would have to read the rest of the pages because what i have seen just looks like a yes man.

[Infinity 324]

What do you mean by a "yes man"

[Fire Assassin]

What do you mean by a "yes man"

Just agreeing with everyones points. That was all I saw last page.

[Infinity 324]

Well that was just 2 points that were good, to be fair

[Something_Smart]

Catchup timeeee

203 is REALLY reachy. I don't recall MoI using arguments this flimsy when he was town before? I'll have to check.

207: I've heard a saying about lying, it goes something like: you can tell a liar because their story fits together TOO perfectly. When people are telling the truth they often misremember or suffer bias that makes their story not perfectly consistent. I therefore don't agree with any of the arguments against MM that relate to his call and explanation thereof.

Infinity's looking fairly towny with his 219 and 220.

228 ewwwwww

229 haven't you ever heard that hypocrisy is a towntell?

Argument over MM's experience is longer than it needs to be.

232: @MM what about the things you mentioned that Persivul did was scum indicative?

233: that has to be some sort of fallacy. My read on this depends on if it ends up being a pressure vote or a real vote.

First part of 239: Ugh, this is something I've seen from both town and scum. Sometimes town really does form reads like that but IME if that's all you have to support it then you might want to reevaluate it. Not to mention that it's the easiest read in the world to fake as scum.

The confidence in 242 in my experience is more likely to come from scum.

244 is a good point.

EDIT: oh oh oh #RektBy267

250: @Infinity why is MM "quite town"?

Oh, it's Fire Assassin. From now on in my posts "FA" is FA_Q2 and "Fire" is Fire Assassin.

260 (first part): @RC your strongest townread on Persivul was never previously stated, can you explain it please?
(second part) that's a pretty good answer.
(third part) agree
(fourth part) eww speaking of incriminatory rhetoric. There were clearer and less accusatory ways to say this, I'm puzzling over why he should say it like that.

261 sounds a bit like stale logic. I know the feeling, when you've decided too early who you're going to push and need to come up with stuff to say despite not analyzing anything to a new conclusion.

No reason not to believe 262. Although you probably ought to get used to playing as town

263: I don't think you can draw conclusions about other players' interest in the setup wrt their alignment. There are way too many factors involved there.

264 is really weird... it seems to imply that RC is scum but the last line totally suggests that his reads are his genuine thoughts. But... RC didn't seem to notice that in 271. In fact that post feels slightly suck-up-y and sounds like "look at how this game fits my town meta and not my scum meta", although granted it was in response to Infinity's meta question.

Don't know how I feel about lane calling qubixes's posts good points... on the one hand, they are (or at least 267 is... I don't understand 265), but on the other hand this isn't the first time lane's done this and I wonder if once he decided on qubixes as a hard townread he was just going to call everything he did town.

272 orly?

273: ohh oops I guess I misread that too. Well the point that RC misread it as I did and didn't point out what I saw still stands. Infinity is probably town, methinks.

276: yes, you should do that.

[FA_Q2]

If I was scum and had day talk... And I planned a scum money dump, how do you think that would actually go? What would be the actual plan?

First of all I wouldn't do the plan if we didn't have better than a pair. And I would've been aware of jokers so a pair doesn't mean much. You can figure this out by saying I have a bad, meh, good, very good, probably unbeatable hand.

2 options to start. Either the one with the good hand goes all in, and the shit hand calls. Or the bad hand goes all in and the good hand calls.

To me, it makes sense for the good hand to go all in first. Then if town calls and there's a chance they have a better hand, the bad hand can save its money. That obviously didn't happen.

So now if the bad hand goes all in, and even if a town calls, the good hand would still go all in, because it would've been decided its a very good hand that probably wouldn't get beat.

Considering there was only one call, the only option here is me and mm.

That's no way we would do that plan unless we were very confident we wouldn't be throwing money away. Cause that'd be dumber than town going all in on a bluff.

So faq2, why aren't you voting the mm?

Because you are scummy for more than your bad play. Not only did you push a bad play but you followed that by defending yourself with character attacks (saying that others obviously do not know how to play poker) and have been almost exclusively defending without any real interest in finding scum. You also seem to be willing to throw suspicion anywhere that might not be you. That is not very townie.

[lane0168]

Wow, that's bad.

[FA_Q2]

You have any other reads? Why vote lane over persivul?

Why vote persivul?

You said something was a blatant rolefish, sounds like you think he's scum.

And I explained why I was not voting for him. Why did you not bother to comment on that and even cut that out of your quote?

I feel like people this game are looking too much at people's actions and taking those at face value rather than trying to analyze the motivation behind them. If lane/mm were scum trying to get money for scum, they wouldn't do it so blatantly. Based on play alone, I think lane and mm (and persivul as well btw) look quite town.

FAQ2, I feel like you're just looking for things to comment on as opposed to actually trying to scumhunt. Some reads with reasons for each, please.

And I feel like you are trying to misrepresent me.

Lane is my strongest scum read and I have explained why. Persivul is next because of his reaction to me calling him out on role fishing. Rather than engage me on it he sidestepped it and went OMGUS with a bullshit reason. You want me to explain why he might be wrong yet he has not explained anything as to why my meta may be a tell. There is noting to really say as to why he is wrong on that bullshit OMGUS vote, it is based on activity which is almost never an accurate alignment tell for anyone. There are very few players that change activity with alignment.

[FA_Q2]

Wow, that's bad.

Sure it is. You have me convinced with that amazing argument.

[Infinity 324]

s_s, a lot of things in that post seem to suggest I'm scum, why do you think I'm town?

About mm, I think he's been less careful (the inconsistencies people mention are an example of this) than noob scum would be, especially because he seems more of a careful person to me. I feel like he started off posting carefully, but once he got put under pressure he panicked and tried to over-explain, whereas as scum he would have good explanations prepared for his actions. He also seems quite willing to engage.

PEdit: I don't agree with that at all faq2, and honestly that reasoning seems pretty fabricated. Lane has definitely been trying to scumhunt, the "character attacks" are NAI, and I think most of his changes in reads so far have had a good reason for them.

PEdit 2: Oh I didn't realize that part of your quote about persivul was about the rolefishing. Were you unsure about it from the beginning?

Why do you think persivul is scum for using something you don't think is a scumtell?

[lane0168]

Well I don't have to convince you. Youre trying to convince everyone else. If i felt like it was worth it to convince you, I would. But it's not. It's just so bad

[lane0168]

I may not be right about the mm, infinity, but I find the over explaining something I think scum would do. People didn't ask him to keep explaining why he called early despite reasons for waiting. But throughout his posts he kept coming up with new reasons for why he did it. I don't like it.

[Something_Smart]

s_s, a lot of things in that post seem to suggest I'm scum, why do you think I'm town?

The only one that actually did was the response to 261. (I originally disliked 264 but that changed once I realized I misunderstood it.) Anyway, throughout the catchup I tried to call each post like I saw it, independent of my thoughts on the player. When I said you were probably town, that was summing up all my thoughts on all your posts. Right now I'm thinking you're the type of town player whom my gut tells me to scumread. (SirCakez, Firebringer, itlepip are other examples)

[Infinity 324]

I may not be right about the mm, infinity, but I find the over explaining something I think scum would do. People didn't ask him to keep explaining why he called early despite reasons for waiting. But throughout his posts he kept coming up with new reasons for why he did it. I don't like it.

That's a fair point, a lot of my townread on him comes down to gut.

s_s, a lot of things in that post seem to suggest I'm scum, why do you think I'm town?

The only one that actually did was the response to 261. (I originally disliked 264 but that changed once I realized I misunderstood it.) Anyway, throughout the catchup I tried to call each post like I saw it, independent of my thoughts on the player. When I said you were probably town, that was summing up all my thoughts on all your posts. Right now I'm thinking you're the type of town player whom my gut tells me to scumread. (SirCakez, Firebringer, itlepip are other examples)

Ok, makes sense

[FA_Q2]

s_s, a lot of things in that post seem to suggest I'm scum, why do you think I'm town?

About mm, I think he's been less careful (the inconsistencies people mention are an example of this) than noob scum would be, especially because he seems more of a careful person to me. I feel like he started off posting carefully, but once he got put under pressure he panicked and tried to over-explain, whereas as scum he would have good explanations prepared for his actions. He also seems quite willing to engage.

PEdit: I don't agree with that at all faq2, and honestly that reasoning seems pretty fabricated. Lane has definitely been trying to scumhunt, the "character attacks" are NAI, and I think most of his changes in reads so far have had a good reason for them.

PEdit 2: Oh I didn't realize that part of your quote about persivul was about the rolefishing. Were you unsure about it from the beginning?

Why do you think persivul is scum for using something you don't think is a scumtell?

It is not necessity a scum tell in this case (as there are already some knowns about the abilities themselves). I do not like the response though.

He does not engage directly with the charge - rather he tries to attack me with a BS meta charge. The timing there is extremely suspect (didn't have any problem with my activity before then), he does not actually go into my meta at all, uses activity as a meta tell which is asinine to start with and ultimately sidesteps the original issue to begin with using that charge. He also tried to cover his fishing with the statement that his choices were obvious not even giving credence to the fact that outing the decisions made tells scum exactly what powers he has and how much money he has remaining. For instance, should he say he was going to purchase the first ability then he does not present any real threat to scum but if he saves that cash for the last one there is a chance that they may want to take him out to prevent that purchase. IOW, rather than get into why his query was toxic to town he attacks immediately and brushes off the fact that town gains no useful information with the question but scum gains tons. If he were town then he would have been genuinely concerned with why I thought such information would be a bad idea to share. There was zero of that.

The more I think about it the more I want a Persivul lynch before a Lane lynch.
VOTE: Persivul

Lane can wait till tomorrow.

[Alchemist21]

♠ ♡ DAY 1 VOTECOUNT ♢ ♣

MM(3):

lane, Red Coyote, BBT, Qubixes

Red Coyote(2):

Infinity, Magna

Persivul(2):

MM, FA

FA_Q2:

Persivul

Not Voting(2):

Fire Assassin, Something Smart

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

The current pot is $200

The amount to call is $100

Still in the hand: MagnaOfIllusion, Persivul, Kappy, lane0168, qubixes

Persivul, Fire Assassin, lane, and quibixes must act.

Spoiler: Betting History

Bet orders:
Ante
Persivul bets 50
Bbt folds
Mm folds
Infinity folds
Something smart folds
Magnaofillusion raises to 100
FA folds
RC folds

Day ends in (expired on 2016-07-05 12:30:00)

[Infinity 324]

He does not engage directly with the charge - rather he tries to attack me with a BS meta charge.

The meta is actually what I was talking about, I was wondering why you called him scum just for using a tell you don't agree with.

The timing there is extremely suspect (didn't have any problem with my activity before then), he does not actually go into my meta at all, uses activity as a meta tell which is asinine to start with and ultimately sidesteps the original issue to begin with using that charge. He also tried to cover his fishing with the statement that his choices were obvious not even giving credence to the fact that outing the decisions made tells scum exactly what powers he has and how much money he has remaining. For instance, should he say he was going to purchase the first ability then he does not present any real threat to scum but if he saves that cash for the last one there is a chance that they may want to take him out to prevent that purchase. IOW, rather than get into why his query was toxic to town he attacks immediately and brushes off the fact that town gains no useful information with the question but scum gains tons. If he were town then he would have been genuinely concerned with why I thought such information would be a bad idea to share. There was zero of that.

This is all pretty NAI. Why can't town have just forgot about you until you started posting? Why don't you consider the fact that persivul might've thought the "rolefishing" question useful for scumhunting purposes? Why can't his refusal to respond just be arrogance?

The more I think about it the more I want a Persivul lynch before a Lane lynch.
VOTE: Persivul

Lane can wait till tomorrow.

Doing this only after questioned on it feels forced.

Don't see why scum would push on persivul right now, that's the only reason my vote's staying where it is.

[lane0168]

Hey people, don't forget to play your hands

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Any chance of a real wagon developing?

[Persivul]

Persivul is next because of his reaction to me calling him out on role fishing. Rather than engage me on it he sidestepped it and went OMGUS with a bullshit reason.

The role fishing charge is terrible in this setup. The people with enough money to buy roles is public knowledge, and scum will be motivated to kill those people.

[The MM]

Infinity's looking fairly towny with his 219 and 220.

Argument over MM's experience is longer than it needs to be.

232: @MM what about the things you mentioned that Persivul did was scum indicative?

The confidence in 242 in my experience is more likely to come from scum.

276: yes, you should do that.

- I did like Infinity's 219 too, but that's mostly due to bias.
- Yes, it prolongs side-talk and avoids scumhunts; so asking any more is scummy.
- Nothing he said, it's gut feeling from the general vibe I get from his posts. Feels like scum should be: somewhat legit-looking but not really reassuring or nice, etc...
- But if he's scum, that means the entire gambit idea is moot.
- I think Fire Assassin is sorta offensive. Gameplay-wise, he definitely is.

I am [a noobie]. This is my second game with people who actually know how to play. What makes you say I'm not?

Choose? Why draw the newbie card, when you consider yourself at least not bad?
VOTE: The MM

Because I am a newbie. But you're confusing "newbie" with "bad. I'm bad only relatively to you, maybe, because I'm not good at reading people.

Wow, that's bad.

Ain't ya got nuthin' better to say?

Any chance of a real wagon developing?

You're just waiting for a wagon to hop on?

Persivul is next because of his reaction to me calling him out on role fishing. Rather than engage me on it he sidestepped it and went OMGUS with a bullshit reason.

The role fishing charge is terrible in this setup. The people with enough money to buy roles is public knowledge, and scum will be motivated to kill those people.

That's true, but right now I have a bunch of cards in my hands (not as far as poker goes, I folded), because I can Commute or Rolestop myself to avoid getting killed, or bank on the fact that scum expects me to to track peepz instead (or do anything else). Really, the scum just gave a focal point to the mindgames played on them now, and that focus is me.

Now I need to think about what to do if I survive the day, so I'll stop talking there.

[Fire Assassin]

Persivul is next because of his reaction to me calling him out on role fishing. Rather than engage me on it he sidestepped it and went OMGUS with a bullshit reason.

The role fishing charge is terrible in this setup. The people with enough money to buy roles is public knowledge, and scum will be motivated to kill those people.

This sounds reasonable.

[RedCoyote]

@RC your strongest townread on Persivul was never previously stated, can you explain it please?

I'm going to make this a short post, because this is a pet peeve of mine. It's not really alignment indicative, but I just want to call you out for this so you don't do it again (at least when responding to me). You asked about my Persivul read, I told you that he was my top town read and that I previously stated that. Instead of you either doing a quick ISO search of me for the name "Persivul" or even just saying (whether or not it's actually true that you took the time to look), "I didn't see that, could you explain again, please?", you double down and and make this untrue statement effectively calling me a liar.

• It shouldn't matter for today. If Lane loses as he says he will, then it would be the winner we would want to lynch. I'm kind of kicking myself for mentioning the possibility when I did. It might have been more informative to let the hand play out before saying anything.

  Yeah, you are definitely my top townread right now.
  
  Persivul's 92 and 93 are basically echoing my thoughts above but in a much more succinct and effective fashion.

I know what I said and didn't say because I said it. If you're going to call me a liar, have the decency to at least do a rudimentary check of my ISO before doing so. I take offense to it and it really gets under my skin. I don't want it to negatively influence my read of you. I'm sure you didn't mean anything personal by it, but it struck me nonetheless.

I'm townreading Perivul because, as I stated above, I found his argument against The MM to be well-founded and well-explained. Further, I think his pithy explaination about overplaying his hand, so to speak, struck me as extremely townie.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA …

Personally if I was evaluating whether to lynch between Lane and MM as possible partners then I absolutely would lynch Lane first. 244 doesn’t make a bit of sense. It reads as Lane trying incredibly hard to fit a narrative to his conclusions. There is no universe where scum looking to dump chips to a partner decide to have the best hand go all-in first and get called by the bad hand. Overall the whole content of that post makes no sense other than someone straining to create a story that supports what has happened and paints him as Town.

Add in his insistence that him forgetting about the Jokers and implications of 11 players with 5 cards each isn’t scum motivated but his stance that MM’s forgetting exact details about Store Prices is scum motivated and I don’t see very honest scum-hunting coming from his slot.

265 is a very suspect jump onto the top wagon.

@SS

– can you explain why looking through you ISO I see exactly what Infinity called out RC for – posts that look like just being made for the sake of it as opposed to actual scum-hunting? Who are your scum reads and why are you not voting one of them?

I don't understand how one may scumhunt without "generating content" (defined by me as engaging people, asking questions, and answering questions).

This response is, I think, scummy. He’s arguing against a stance Inifity didn’t take. Infinity didn’t say you could scum-hunt without generating content. He said you could generate content without scum-hunting. As in – putting down lots of words in the thread that don’t actually look to take stance.

Look at his song and dance surrounding his lack of Lane read. He said that there was no reason to suspect Lane was scum but was quick to correct that it wasn’t a Lane Town read at that point only a Null read. And all the words he’s sent my way have by his own admission not been oriented at someone he is actually scum-reading. So he’s filling the thread with lots of words but they don’t actually represent scum-hunting.

Also – look at the tone of his posts made to / at me. He uses a ton of language meant to suggest I’m incompetent and not worth listening to. It is a pretty classic scum motivated play.

Oh, and your bit about MoI. I think it's certainly anti-town. I don't know if it would be scum-motivated. I think it's difficult to say his scumhunting is honest when he "forgets" that I'm voting (despite that fact that a big part of his push was over the fact that I wasn't voting... and there was an official VC posted almost immediately before he made that contention). Additonally, I think it's irresponsible to "not pay attention" to the shop. Given that someone just won a poker hand, I went back and checked the shop again. Other players have asked MM about the shop. It just strikes me as naturally townie to be inquisitive about it.

Is it scummy? Maybe not. I think you've got a fair point.

Still, I want to draw attention to it as I have not made these same mistakes.

And this is a scum response.

1. A big part of my push was that you were not voting? Lie. Read 107 where I first identify his play as scum oriented – not a single mention of not voting there. Sane with 109. And in 124 it was a small point regarding his attempts to discredit while not voting me. He’s using a logical fallacy to try to suggest my read on him is warranted by picking out a single element (that I forgot that he was voting MM) and attacking it while ignoring the fact that the single point is a side-note to the full extent of my read on him which involves scum motivated posting and discrediting.

2. The Shop analysis is exactly what I would expect from scum looking for another manner to undermine reads on me. He’s latched on to the fact that I said I made the same mistake as MM. Yet the one element I specifically left out of my post is the time-frame that mistake happened.

It was Pre-Game. I read the rules the first time the thread was posted. When I read my role PM I got to thinking about ability pricing and the thought about how a single double-up could catapult players into the top Shop tier. So when re-reading the rules before the thread opened I discovered my recollection was incorrect and that the top tier was $1250.

Yet RC is trying to float that I haven’t been “paying attention” when my statement took place Pre-Game and not when the game was actually happening is scum looking for discrediting materials. Especially since he refuses to actually call me scum.

3. Look at the bolded – do you think coming from Town? I certainly don’t. Looks very LAMIST to me – “Look I don’t make mistakes look how Townie I am!!!”

No. Last time I saw you lurk like this you were scum.

Link to said game.

@MoI: Ref: 203

Why do you think MM is less likely to be scum here given the hand? He would have a no-brainer regardless of his alignment? You also said that a strong hand by MM would make it more likely that lane and MM are a team. Why did you (seemingly) abandon this line of thinking?

Also, I think you underrepresented the arguments against MM, so it looks weaker than it is. Did you do that on purpose? What is your read on MM?

I’ve abandoned that line of thinking because the heat MM isn’t proportionate to what I would expect from Scum. You yourself say that his call was a No-Brainer regardless of alignment. Yet I see people bending over backwards looking for reasons (most of which I think are very much stretching past the point of reasonableness) to continue to pressure him while Lane isn’t drawing any heat at all.

Given that the main context of suspicion on MM began with the “Lane was chip-dumping to partner MM” supposition it” I see the continued wagon that has followed to be on a Town player given that now Lane is drawing Town reads from players.

What exactly is your case on MM Quib? Can you lay it out for me in one spot because you hop on looks pretty sketchy in my mind.