Open 643: Kill All Townies! (Game Over)

[Ranger]

If Ranger had tried to read me at any fucking point in the game, then she wouldn't be making that post.

*cough*

For the purposes of this post,

I am not going to be pointing out individual posts which look scummy

, unless they are in direct reference to a vote. This is mostly interactions, and how I got where I did.

Yes, Bellaphant. That means I find your posts individually scummy.

I have found the posting of {pistachi0n, Chip Butty, Charloux, hiplop, Smithereens, Almost50} varying degrees of town, off of their individual posting.
Interactions can narrow that even further: Chip Butty is 100% not mafia thanks to the Chip-House reactions. hiplop is not mafia thanks to the House-hiplop, and Kop-hiplop, interactions. pistachi0n also has interactions suggesting that she's not mafia.

I have found the posting of {LicketyQuickety, Creature(dating back to him)/shotty(this was not his town game)/Titus(this is not her town game), Kop(this is his scumgame), DixC, Bellaphant, sad(sorta)/Not_Mafia(mostly)} suspicious. Off of individual posts.
Kop is the most obvious mafiate ever with Kop's interactions with House and House's limited interaction with Kop.
{DixC, Bellaphant} have strong interactions suggesting they are not mafia. LicketyQuickety has weak interactions suggesting he may not be mafia. Creature/shotty/Titus also have interactions suggesting they are not mafia.
For the final mafiate, that leaves the candidates as {LicketyQuickety(but most likely not), Creature/shotty/Titus(but most likely not), sad/Not_Mafia}.
That also gives a werewolf pool of {LicketyQuickety, Creature/shotty/Titus, DixC, Bellaphant, sad/Not_Mafia}. But interactions can further narrow it down.

{LicketyQuickety, Bellaphant} are not likely scum together, in spite of her noncommittal defense of him. (That's something which looks bad for her, period, regardless of LQ's alignment, but by itself means nothing about LQ.)
{LicketyQuickety, Creature/shotty/Titus} are not scum together.
In short...the only places LicketyQuickety can realistically be scum are in a {LicketyQuickety, DixC, Bellaphant, sad/Not_Mafia} combo of three.
sad/Not_Mafia works best as the third mafiate.
So once again!
With Kop as mafia, and Not_Mafia as mafia, we get a gamestate where the only wolf team with LicketyQuickety on it is {LicketyQuickety, DixC, Bellaphant}...but LicketyQuickety did go against DixC fairly hard, making this less likely.

Short version short: LicketyQuickety, on a full review, in spite of being individually scummy, just doesn't work well on most scumteams. Especially not wolf-teams.

So, that leaves for werewolves...
{DixC, Bellaphant, Creature/shotty/Titus, sad/Not_Mafia}
...But there has to be a third mafiate, and sad/Not_Mafia has the interactions most heavily suggesting this.

tl;dr:
Wolves are, by interactions, most likely {DixC, Bellaphant, Creature/shotty/Titus}.
This isn't that hard to parse.

[Ranger]

You know when I told Ranger not to explain her read on LQ?? It was because -after thinking it opver for a couple of days no less- i came to the conclusion she was the Town Vig, shot LQ and he survived, thus she deduced he was protected by the only Doctor alive in game. As I said, I'm STUPID!

A good thought, but if I were the vig, LicketyQuickety during N1 would be someone who would either be a guaranteed protection, or town. In other words...bad shot.

Now, he wouldn't be the worst vig shot ever NOW, with the mafia doctor dead and LicketyQuickety being more likely mafia than wolf (though being more likely town than mafia), but it'd be a shot more likely to just give the town an extra lynch rather than a shot to hit scum, so I'd recommend against it. My advice to the vig really would depend on what we hit with our two lynches today. If we hit the werewolf doctor, then just lynching one of {Kop, Not_Mafia} and shooting the other is a good plan. If we don't, then it's a bit more iffy. We have two attempts today, though, which is why I really am focusing on the werewolves.

Frankly, I think the most ideal of ideal states would be lynching a non-doctor werewolf first, then the werewolf doctor second, and then randomly choosing one of {Kop, Not_Mafia} to vig with the mafia and wolves both at a disadvantage, but whatever works, works.

Like I said. We should be lynching AT LEAST one of {DixC, Titus, Bellaphant} in this first phase, and depending on what they flip, evaluating whether we want a werewolf or mafia lynch after that.

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: DixC

[Ranger]

I can do that.
VOTE: DixC.

[Almost50]

For lack of a better argument...

VOTE: DixC

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: DixC

[DixC]

This is a nonsense train. By ranger's own logic Creature/shotty/Titus and Bellaphant are the ones she has anything against via a mild association with House

[DixC]

Again, Ranger has produced a convoluted argument and placed her bets against the least likely person because it requires the most detail to explain. It's a train of limited arguments who, in combination, lead to this nonsensical argument.

Just assign probabilities to all of the things she said; even starting with her own premises her conclusions don't follow.

What does follow is that I pointed out, repeatedly, the fallacy that Ranger relies on.

She also relies on building coalitions of the un-willing-to-die; so sticking three people that are so tangentially related as Not_Mafia, myself and Titus together the other two have every incentive to vote me to 'prove themselves'.

VOTE: Ranger's acting quite contrary to probability and I can't imagine that her reputation comes from this sort of anti-logical argumentation.

[Smithereens]

Tbh my opinion on what a regular townie would do in your position DixC is protest their innocence or continue their own scum hunting. Here you're actually trying to analyse and dissect the argument against you in order to do a counter vote. Smart play, but not really town play.

There's this thing in psychology where you confront a suspect with the charge of their crime, an innocent party will outright deny the conclusion, a guilty party will take problems with the charge itself. You did the latter.

[Rob14]

Mirhawk replaces hiplop.

[Mirhawk]

Whoooo

I'm the mafia Godfather.

How do you play this game?

[Rob14]

Vote Count #2.5:

Ranger:

pistachi0n, Chip Butty, Titus, Bellaphant, DixC (5)

DixC:

Charloux, LicketyQuickety, Ranger, Almost50, Not_Mafia (5)

LicketyQuickety:

Kop (1)

Not Voting:

Mirhawk, Smithereens

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

V/LA:

None.

Deadline:

(expired on 2016-07-20 20:00:00)

[Mirhawk]

Wow, house is super obviously scum on page 5. Guess that's why he's dead though.

Also don't like LQ on this page.

[Mirhawk]

Hey, stop killing my scumreads guys that's rude.

[Mirhawk]

Chip needs to learn what paragraphs are if he wants me to read his cases.

[Mirhawk]

Don't like Kop's 217. Dishes out some random townreads, jumps on Hiplop's wagon because "it the wagon he want's to join the most", only thing he talks about in depth is his opinion on scum theater which is meh at best.

[Mirhawk]

End of 12.

I think things about LQ's fakehammer response I guess. My instant reaction was more townie, but my thinking about it reaction was NAI. He doesn't strike me as the mastermind type who knew what the VC actually was, so whatever his intent it was probably legitimate. Problem is that doesn't help much as I'm undecided on why he acted that way.

I've been generally thinking over the last few pages that Bella is looking scummier and scummier.

I think Chip is kinda townish now, which is a relief as I've been having something of a drought of townreads.

[Mirhawk]

I'm done catching up for tonight, th th th that's all folks.

[Chip Butty]

Will read through in a few hours. Sorry, been busy, spent what little time I have had on another game, connection issues as well. Should be able to become more active again now.

Welcome aboard Mirhawk. "Paragraphs", huh? I'm usually pretty good at that, but okay...

[Charloux]

Sorry, kinda gone to a vacation and i forgot to ask for V/LA
Don't like a single name that is on Rangers wagon. At least Bella should know better.

[Kop]

@mod can you replace me, I'm lacking on personal time and can't contribute as most as I would like too sorry in advance

[Rob14]

pirate mollie replaces Kop.

[pirate mollie]

hi guys

whats going on

[Almost50]

hi guys

whats going on

Welcome!

In a nutshell; you're voting a null slot. Half the town are on likely scum (DixC) and half are on obv!Town (Ranger). Both are at L-2. You should switch to DixC.

[Titus]

hi guys

whats going on

Welcome!

In a nutshell; you're voting a null slot. Half the town are on likely scum (DixC) and half are on obv!Town (Ranger). Both are at L-2. You should switch to DixC.

You have Ranger and DixC backwards I believe. Other than that I totally agree.

Hey Mollie.