Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Elias_the_thief]

I think originality is the best lynch for today. Although Korlash is inherently scummier, a guilty investigation result is far more incriminating.

I want to vote for orig, but would prefer to see a votecount (and Elias' views)

If you expect me to share my views, I'm sure the town could use some more in depth views from you.

All I know is that lynching orig would be bad. I havent really made up my mind on Korlash, but he's digging himself into a deeper hole everytime he posts. This doesnt mean he scum necessarily though. I'll have to reread the discussion he's had with Vollkan.

[vollkan]

And if I can't convince everyone with my word only, please look at those numbers you have been throwing around for a while now, that say that whatever my allegiance might be, its best not to lynch me.

And someone FINALLY said it. It could have waited a little longer, but whatever.

Okay, now it's time for me to open the floodgates and go on the rabid offensive:

My current hypothesis is that originality is, in fact, the SK. I think that the odds of him being scum are certainly higher in light of this new information than they were before.

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point.

I think that ONE of them is the right play today, for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point

Gemelli thinks Orig is the SK. Fine, so do I. BUT, Gemelli also favours lynching Originality. In fact, he sees the fact that we lynch either of them as near axiomatic.

Lynching SKOrig places us in LYLO. For someone who has been so cautious all the way through things, this is a major slip.

FoS: Gemelli

Now, let's see what else we've got:

As you and Orig (just recently) pointed out, you all had a long conversation about how lynching Orig is bad. So I am basing a lot of my thinking on that. Although I am not sure if a Guilty investigation will change anything.

He's ambivalent. He has obviously read what Orig said and has realised the move I was pulling. In that regard, the fact he leaves himself open is interesting, but not as strong as Gemelli's imo.

LesserFoS: Korlash

Now,

I think originality is the best lynch for today. Although Korlash is inherently scummier, a guilty investigation result is far more incriminating.

I want to vote for orig, but would prefer to see a votecount (and Elias' views)

Gemellish, she gives no thought to the consequences of lynching Orig but pushes his lynch. She is chronically lurking and her only content is plainly anti-town.

Also, this possibly hints at Lucienne/Korlash. The "I want to lynch X (town/SK), but Y (partner) is also scummy" thing.

FoS: Lucienne

If you expect me to share my views, I'm sure the town could use some more in depth views from you.

All I know is that lynching orig would be bad. I havent really made up my mind on Korlash, but he's digging himself into a deeper hole everytime he posts. This doesnt mean he scum necessarily though. I'll have to reread the discussion he's had with Vollkan.

This is a null tell. Elias has the right attitude, but adopted it after people brought up the numbers of the matter again.

I've got to very strongly disagree with this sentiment. In fact a cop claim works out exceedingly well no matter the alignment of dybeck.

dybeck the SK: He know's for a fact that originality is mafia because he made the other kill. Thus he is 100% certain that his "investigation" result will turn up scum. He also knows that the town already has a tracker so there is a decent probability no cop exists. As for the mafia killing him in the night, can you say doc protection for a proven guilty "investigation." Makes 2 assumptions, but beats the hell out of being lynched.

dybeck the mafioso: He know's there's a decent chance orig is coming up SK, and given his opinion of Carrotcake, I'd say he'd bet on SK over vig. Thus there is a good chance that he gets a guilty on a SK. WCS in this situation is that he has successfully taken out the town vig, and after his lynch tommorow the town is in a 3:2 LYLO. Best case scenario he has killed off the SK, survived and has the town thinking he's the cop, can you say mafia win? As above if there is a tracker, cop probabilities go down. And again beats the hell out of getting lynched and having nothing to show for it.

You are absolutely correct. I did say his behaviour was consistent with a SK, and I avoided the mafia possibility because it could have led to number discussion and risked the research regarding people who want Orig lynched.

So, my thoughts:
Orig is probably SK or vig, not mafia.
The people who are promoting Orig's lynching are probably mafia.
Dybeck is either mafia or cop.
Shaft.ed is probably town.

So, my current view of things, in descending order of certainty:

Town

0) Vollkan
1) AlyG
2) Shaft.ed

Mafia

1) Lucienne
2T) Gemelli
2T) Korlash
3) Elias

SK

1) Orig

Utterly Uncertain

1) dybeck (either cop or mafia)

So, what to do today:
I don't care what Orig is right now. I think he is SK. The fact is that lynching him is idiotic.
AlyG is pro-town confirmed virtually
shaft.ed strikes me as very pro-town
Lucienne is lurkish and now very scummy
Gemelli has been active, but just made a scumslip
Korlash is scummy, but it could be largely due to his playstyle
dybeck is either mafia or cop. He is not worth lynching because, imo, if he is mafia he will likely be NKed by the SK.
Elias is an ambiguity. Earlier on, I looked at possible scumlinks. I definitely want to see more of Elias.

Our best bet is a non-Orig mafioso. We know that. And my pick is Lucienne.

Vote: Lucienne

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm curious as to what places me third (well, fourth really) on your list of scum. You dont post anything substantial on me really, simply a reference to my disagreement on the number issue (which I never really had). After your original numbers post, I accepted that lynching Orig was a bad move. I just simply had an issue with one portion of the logic, which was relying on the mafia to kill a certain person.

Anyhow, taking a previous post of yours (1193), I looked at the group of uncertains you posted:
"Elias_the_thief
Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne
volkann
shaft.ed"

Barring myself, and people that I find are likely town (vollkan and shafted) I'm left with:
"Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne"
Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup. If we have only two, or on the off chance that Orig is a mafioso who got caught making the nightkill for his group, then one of those is not scum, obviously. I'm not sure how you get more scum tells off lucienne then Korlash, when lucienne has posted so little. Could you elaborate some? Surely that one post is not your entire case?

[vollkan]

I'm curious as to what places me third (well, fourth really) on your list of scum. You dont post anything substantial on me really, simply a reference to my disagreement on the number issue (which I never really had). After your original numbers post, I accepted that lynching Orig was a bad move. I just simply had an issue with one portion of the logic, which was relying on the mafia to kill a certain person.

I actually originally placed you in "Uncertain" but it was not quite what I meant by the "uncertain" category (which specifically applied to dybeck's situation of being certainly one thing or the other).

All I meant by including you in scum is that I do not think you are pro-town. If I had to give you a scummy percentage, it would be 55%.

Don't take it as meaning that I think you are scum, in your case, as I said it is an "ambiguity". The other thing, is that I get more links coming from you than anyone else (chiefly to Korlash and Lucienne), but that's for later on.

If I saw more of you, I would probably think you were pro-town.

Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup. If we have only two, or on the off chance that Orig is a mafioso who got caught making the nightkill for his group, then one of those is not scum, obviously. I'm not sure how you get more scum tells off lucienne then Korlash, when lucienne has posted so little. Could you elaborate some? Surely that one post is not your entire case?

Lucienne needs to post more. She is popping in occasionally, clearly showing her awareness of the game, but she is making no substantial contributions and, moreover, her latest post is completely anti-town. No question of dybeck, no consideration of the various possibilities, no discussion of anything other than securing a lynch which is anti-town no matter what Orig is. My overall impression is scum tip-toeing around the game; trying to post on occasion without offering anything useful.

Korlash is scummy as all hell, and Gemelli's attitude to dybeck and Orig is scummy for the same reason as Lucienne's. Korlash could easily get my vote if circumstances change. Gemelli has largely seemed pro-town until this point, so I would probably be a little more hesitant.

If you want percentages (0% = obv town, 100% = obv scum)
AlyG = 0%
shaft.ed = 20%
Elias = 55%
Gemelli = 60%}
Korlash = 65%} Not tied, but the above was more based on specific reactions to lynching Orig. On overall perception, Korlash is scummier.
Lucienne = 70%
dybeck = 75%
Orig = 100%

[Korlash]

I find it kinda odd you would FoS Gem for doing something and then FoS me for doing the exact opposite... Thats about all the input I have ATM... Have to go do some things tonight... I should check back in a bit later with a more detailed post...

[vollkan]

Korlash, you clearly did not read what I said, or you are making a completely distorted interpretation.

Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town.

You were ambivalently fence-sitting, despite expressing quite clearly the fact that you knew that lynching Orig was a bad idea.

As such, you clearly did not do the "exact opposite" and are reaching to make me look contradictory.

[Korlash]

Fence sitting? How is that? All I did was ask if a guilty investigation in anyway effected your numbers. I can not fathom that you would have already added that into one of your giant numerical posts. From your response I take that as a no and thus I sit with my original answer of Lucienne.

You need to stop over reacting to every thing i say when most of it can be cleared up with a simple yes or no response man... I mean I can see why you think I am very suspicious, but not EVERYTHING i say is meant to be scummy or is trying to frame you in anyway. Stop being so paranoid.

[vollkan]

Fence sitting? How is that? All I did was ask if a guilty investigation in anyway effected your numbers. I can not fathom that you would have already added that into one of your giant numerical posts. From your response I take that as a no and thus I sit with my original answer of Lucienne.

Korlash, I only gave you a slight FoS for it anyway, so you are really over-reacting.

In any event, you said:

As you and Orig (just recently) pointed out, you all had a long conversation about how lynching Orig is bad. So I am basing a lot of my thinking on that. Although I am not sure if a Guilty investigation will change anything.

You are acknowledging that lynching Orig is bad, based on my argument, but you leave open the possibility for that to change based on the effects of a guilty investigation. The point of my argument was that lynching Orig is bad irrespective of what he is. If you were actually basing your reasoning on my arguments, it would make more sense for you to have omitted that last sentence. In fact, if you had omitted that last sentence I would actually be quite pleased with you.

You need to stop over reacting to every thing i say when most of it can be cleared up with a simple yes or no response man... I mean I can see why you think I am very suspicious, but

not EVERYTHING i say is meant to be scummy or is trying to frame you in anyway.

Stop being so paranoid.

So what...only SOME of what you say is scummy and attempting to frame me?

[Gemelli]

Okay, now it's time for me to open the floodgates and go on the rabid offensive:

My current hypothesis is that originality is, in fact, the SK. I think that the odds of him being scum are certainly higher in light of this new information than they were before.

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point.

I think that ONE of them is the right play today, for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point

Gemelli thinks Orig is the SK. Fine, so do I. BUT, Gemelli also favours lynching Originality. In fact, he sees the fact that we lynch either of them as near axiomatic.

Untrue. I think that one of them is almost certainly scum, as you seem to have stated earlier. I suspect other players to varying degrees, but originality has moved far and away into the lead IMHO. Barring further evidence, he will be my vote for today.

At the risk of repeating myself, I did in fact see Dybeck's behavior for much of D2 as scummy. But we now have strong evidence in place that at least ONE of the two players, orig and dybeck, is scum. I feel that the evidence in place (as I documented in my previous post) suggests that orig is the SK, and that dybeck is in fact the cop. I do not expect that my opinions imply any "axiomatic" action by the town. It is absolutely possible that I have fallen victim to a dybeck snow job. But until I have been convinced that I am wrong, that is where I stand on the game.

Lynching SKOrig places us in LYLO. For someone who has been so cautious all the way through things, this is a major slip.

At the risk of sounding dense, please explain to me why lynching a strongly-suspected SK would be a bad thing.

Much of my support for the "don't lynch orig" strategy hinged on the possibility of his being mafia. With that possibility looking increasingly unlikely, I am less convinced that we should leave him alive.

My primary reasoning here is that if we do manage to knock off the SK today, we will have one less anti-town NK to deal with. Much of the analysis done to date seems to assume that the mafia will automatically choose to kill the SK tonight. But what happens if they don't?

Why wouldn't they, I can hear you ask. The answer:

because there is only one SK for them to deal with, and because the identities of the mafia players are still uncertain.

Let's say we are starting at 5:3:1, and we choose to leave the SK alive today. We lynch another player, dropping us to 4:3:1 or 5:2:1.

If the mafia choose to target a town player, we then drop to 3:3:1 or 4:2:1.

Then we need to account for the SK's action:
- No kill: 3:3:1 or 4:2:1
- Kill mafia: 3:2:1 or 4:1:1
- Kill town: 2:3:1 or 3:2:1

Of those six scenarios, the only one that is NOT favorable for the mafia (or at least equitable) is if we manage to lynch a mafioso today, AND the SK manages to NK one. Given the amount of uncertainty among the player base as to who the three mafia members could be, how likely do you think that scenario is?

Yes, I fully acknowledge that lynching the SK would put us into 4:3 LYLO and down a power role. But looking at the six possibilities above, there is only a 1/6 chance of escaping LYLO if we DON'T lynch the SK. And there is a further 1/3 chance of facing a town loss scenario. To echo a comment that Oman made earlier in the game, I think it would be a mistake to rely on another faction (the SK) to help advance the town's win condition.

In short, I think that lynching the SK is in fact a reasonable play for the town,

unless strong evidence surfaces that a different player is in fact mafia

. I would rather lynch a strongly-suspected SK than an iffy-suspected mafia, because the impact of a mislynch today could be disastrous.

Gemellish, she gives no thought to the consequences of lynching Orig but pushes his lynch. She is chronically lurking and her only content is plainly anti-town.

I do not honestly believe that you think that my posts are made recklessly or without considering the potential impact on the town. The fact that you're suddenly starting to paint that picture is setting off all sorts of alarms.

And honestly, you are starting to overreach. "Plainly anti-town?" What, specifically, has been anti-town about the content (not frequency) of her posts? The fact that she's leaning towards lynching the player that you've just said you think is probably the SK? I'm not saying that I think that Lucienne is aligned one way or the other, but this post struck me as a random potshot.

The bottom line for me is that

I believe the mafia has a potential interest in keeping SK-orig alive today

. Please convince me otherwise if this is just plain wrong. This is an important decision for the town, and I do not want to brush off my concerns by simply saying "we talked about it already so it's obviously a bad play."

[Korlash]

In fact, if you had omitted that last sentence I would actually be quite pleased with you.

great, from now on when I am unsure of something I will not even mention it and blindly continue on. As long as you are pleased I could care less if I am clear on the issues! [/sarcasm]

So what...only SOME of what you say is scummy and attempting to frame me?

Yes!
>.> <.<

[originality]

Yes! Finally someone agrees with me on Lucienne.


It seems to me dybeck is on too uncertain grounds for you guys, making me doubt he will be lynched today. I'll go for my other top scum choice.

unvote, vote lucienne

[vollkan]

Untrue. I think that one of them is almost certainly scum, as you seem to have stated earlier. I suspect other players to varying degrees, but originality has moved far and away into the lead IMHO. Barring further evidence, he will be my vote for today.

I said:

Gemelli thinks Orig is the SK. Fine, so do I. BUT, Gemelli also favours lynching Originality. In fact, he sees the fact that we lynch either of them as near axiomatic.

If it wasn't clear, the problem is that you want the SK lynched or dybeck. Lynching SKOrig makes it LYLO. I have a serious problem with that.

At the risk of sounding dense, please explain to me why lynching a strongly-suspected SK would be a bad thing.

Sure, but I need to use numbers. I suggest everybody read these and let the reality sink in. Gemelli, your number analysis is correct, but faulty because it fails to look at the motivation of the SK being his own survival and win:

If we lynch SK Orig

Lynch SKOrig = 5:3:0
MafNK = 4:3 LYLO

If we mislynch

Mislynch = 4:3:1
Orig will act on the assumption he survives, so:
MafNK = 3:3:1
Now, if Orig NKs and hits a townie, then it will be 2:3:1 which is a mafia win.
Thus, Orig's safest bet is to not NK. A mafia NK will make it 3:2:1, which still requires all the town to vote with Orig, same as 3:3:1. In both cases, it is 4 votes to lynch.
In other words, if we mislynch, Orig's best move is to not NK.

Message for the SK (if you exist)

- In the event of a mislynch today, it will be suicidal for you to NK. If you NK, at best things will only be as good as if you had not NKed. THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO YOU NKING A MAFIA in the event of a mislynch, since it will be 4 votes to lynch in either case. The massive risk is that you will lose the game. You not NKing also benefits the town, obviously, since it prevents an instant mafia win, which is why I am giving you this message.

Hence, lynching Orig is as beneficial as a mislynch

Lynching a mafioso, however:

Lynch of mafia= 5:2:1
MafNK = 4:2:1
Now, Orig has more of an incentive to act here. He will likely NK and will certainly target mafia.
Orig NK = 3:2:1 or 4:1:1

Now

what can we learn from this

?

Lynching SKOrig is as good as a mislynch. I do not want to mislynch, therefore I do not want to lynch SKOrig.

Lynching a non-Orig mafioso will, at worst, put us in the situation which a mislynch puts us in at best. And at best, a non-Orig mafia lynch makes it 4:1:1.

Perhaps now, you understand the urgency and "paranoias" of my last few posts.

Gemellish, she gives no thought to the consequences of lynching Orig but pushes his lynch. She is chronically lurking and her only content is plainly anti-town.

I do not honestly believe that you think that my posts are made recklessly or without considering the potential impact on the town. The fact that you're suddenly starting to paint that picture is setting off all sorts of alarms.

Well, the bit you quoted was on Lucienne.

Understand things from my perspective Gemelli. I see you supporting something which I have already said is anti-town, and you fail to explain your rationale for it.

I never said you were reckless. I think that your support for this was potentially a major slip-up by you.

Why does my behaviour raise alarm bells? I don't see how it is suspicious that I become very concerned when people advocate things which I know to be patently anti-town.

And honestly, you are starting to overreach. "Plainly anti-town?" What, specifically, has been anti-town about the content (not frequency) of her posts? The fact that she's leaning towards lynching the player that you've just said you think is probably the SK? I'm not saying that I think that Lucienne is aligned one way or the other, but this post struck me as a random potshot.

A lurker who only chimes in to virtually parrot what other people are saying and then supports something like this strikes me as scummy very highly.

The bottom line for me is that I believe the mafia has a potential interest in keeping SK-orig alive today. Please convince me otherwise if this is just plain wrong. This is an important decision for the town, and I do not want to brush off my concerns by simply saying "we talked about it already so it's obviously a bad play."

Not true, at all.

If we mislynch today, Orig's best move is not to NK. That doesn't help the scum.

Then we have a 3:3:1 D3. That's virtually Lynch-mafia-or-lose.
If we lynch mafia = 3:2:1
Now, Orig needs to assume mafia NK town.
Thus, 2:2:1.
If Orig NKs town, mafia win.
If Orig NK's mafia, D4 is 2:1:1 with 3 to lynch
If Orig does not NK, D4 is 2:2:1 with 3 to lynch
Again, Orig's best move is NOT to NK.

D4 opens at 2:2:1 same deal
MafNK = 2:1:1
MafNK town = 1:1:1.

Orig is never of any help to mafia, and is simply an alternate townie to them in the event of a mislynch. The difference with Orig is that he makes it a draw in a 1:1 situation, whereas townie makes it a mafia win. Thus, the mafia actually want to eliminate Orig.

With more anti-mafia numbers, it may be optimal for Orig if he does NK. A mafia lynch today is such a situation. Therefore, the corollary of going after mafia today, is that we must try and be as global with our view of things as possible.

great, from now on when I am unsure of something I will not even mention it and blindly continue on. As long as you are pleased I could care less if I am clear on the issues! [/sarcasm]

You could have just asked like Gemelli did, rather than half-heartedly giving your support.

Yes! Razz
>.> <.<

That doesn't answer my question.

[Korlash]

The sentence "Not everything I say is _____" is more of a cliche thing to say to someone who keeps taking everything thing you say to mean as something specific. Such as if you go to church and someone tries to equate everything you say to the bible you can say to them "Not everything I say is about the bible" or if you are a fisher and someone tries to link your words to fishing terms or something...

It just seems to me you take every single thing I say and automatically assume the Scum way of thinking about it. Such as instead of seeing a towny asking for clarification, you see a scum trying to frame you. Or instead of a joke you may see a big anti-town move. I don't think it is wrong to question potential scum moves but to automatically assume everything a person says is scum makes it hard for them to prove/explain they are town.

I hope that answers your question...

[Korlash]

Damnit I forgot... If Orig is so sure Dybeck is lying I still find it odd he would Switch his vote. It makes me feel he is not set on the fact Dybeck is lying and is more interested in taking the pressure off of himself and forcing it on to another. I am not saying we lynch him here, but I find it odd that someone who is %100 certain someone is fake-claiming cop would take their vote off of that person.

[Korlash]

... *bangheaddesk*

Also what other point besides "Lurking'/little content" and "Wanting to lynch Orig" do you guys have against Lucienne? I too feel the need for her to talk more but the same can be said about Elias sometimes.

this is just so I do not have to go back and reread form the start of day two. A simple explanations of any past scummyness/ reasons to vote would just be nice to catch me up! Thanks in advance!!!

[vollkan]

Damnit I forgot... If Orig is so sure Dybeck is lying I still find it odd he would Switch his vote. It makes me feel he is not set on the fact Dybeck is lying and is more interested in taking the pressure off of himself and forcing it on to another. I am not saying we lynch him here, but I find it odd that someone who is %100 certain someone is fake-claiming cop would take their vote off of that person.

You are actually onto something good here.

If Orig was vig, he would know for certain that dybeck is lying scum and would be idiotic not to be pushing dybeck's lynch adamantly. Given what he is doing now, we can say with reasonable certainty that he is SK.

His actions are consistent with a SK who knows dybeck is mafia or cop, but whose priority is eliminating the mafia. His actions are utterly inconsistent with a pro-town vig.

Also what other point besides "Lurking'/little content" and "Wanting to lynch Orig" do you guys have against Lucienne? I too feel the need for her to talk more but the same can be said about Elias sometimes.

I'll do a PBPA sometime soon, but on the whole, she has largely been "tip-toeing", avoiding being a complete lurker whilst not actually adding anything. The fact she has now advocated something wholly anti-town breaks the camel's back, so to speak.

If my PBPA turns her out as being largely pro-town, I will unvote, but for now my vote remains.

[originality]

You all have said that lynching dybeck would be too much of a risk, and I think that persuing a dybeck lynch would be useless for me. I have to be happy with option #2 I guess. But don't let that make you guys assume I quit on dybeck, he is still scum. But Lucienne is scum too, so its okay.

[vollkan]

As promised:

PBPA of Lucienne

I am posting this as I read through.

31: Greeting
33: Doesn’t like Orig and thinks Oman is scummy for his bandwagoning
37: Clarifying something
68: Votes Oman for opportunism and OMGUS on shaft.ed. Oman was not OMGUSing and he points this out to her.
70: More banter with Oman.
97: Backtracks when realises was wrong about Oman putting Orig at L-2, by “nonetheless” attacking Oman’s lack of reasoning.
98: Asks about spelling
135: Questions why Orig feels “pressured into voting” for VH
137: Comments on BS’s ‘edit sig’
187: FoSes Orig for voting VH because he was “pressured” to join largest wagon
203: Orig explains things, agrees with Carrot on AlyG being suspect
204: Votes BS for having done nothing “except coast and say basically nothing”. Ironic.
209: Shaft.ed has noted the irony and Lucienne responds by selecting posts where she scumhunts. Then she puts it back to BS with “Dr. B has done no scum-hunting. That is scummy. Dr. B has not been scum-hunting for the entire game. That is scummy.”
231: Draws attention to BS having claimed power role
270: Unvotes BS for power role claiming and criticises those still on his wagon. Questions BS, criticises Ryan’s suggestion that we let BS live and “then take” (quoting Ryan) care of him D2. Says AlyG is scummy for planning the lynches of 2 days. Questions Orig again.
315: Questioning of Ryan and AlyG. Thinks Oman is town, antisystemically based on his attacks on Ryan. I find the logic of “This person is attacking the person I think is scummy, therefore they are now town” to be rather poor.
372: Quick single sentences questioning things.
417: More questioning of the above nature. Interestingly, attacks a BS lurking post which she already attacked previously. Notable for later, criticises Oman suggesting other power roles.
420: “It's like a cop with a guilty yet voting somewhere else.” says the person now voting Orig. Doesn’t like dybeck and thinks AlyG is lying.
485: will be away due to emergency
572: Now believes AlyG and thinks Orig is possibly lying. Suggests Elias/dybeck mafia. Dislikes Oman’s vote for Elias.
684: nothing
685: opposes a vigging because it could be fatal (I assume you mean “loss-causing”). Attacks dybeck for

not suggesting other power roles

. Comments on Gem defending dybeck. Thinks Elias is more lurkish than scummy. Responds to comments she is not posting by saying her scumdar is clear. Ironically, she then agrees with shaft.ed that Oman has been all over the place, which is pretty much was she has done. She has spread everywhere, and spread very thinly.
817: Nothing really. Minor questions for clarification
820: More suspicion of Oman and agrees with my linking dybeck to Gem. Her vigging list is 1. No Killl; 2. Oman; 3. Dybeck; 4. Elias (though she says she doesn’t want Elias killed).
Her scumdar:

Oman (far too much flip-flopping and bandwagonning which has accentuated his early scummy Day 1 behaviour).

Dybeck (his stance regarding originality was far too exaggerated and advocating to lynch him is scummy.)

Gemelli (solid enough, only notable thing is connections with dybeck. If dybeck turned up scum, I would be looking at Gemelli.)

Elias (really, really needs to post.)

Vollkan (I don't see much to fault at this point, although I find that his use of maths is off-putting for me at least. Sometimes scum hide from discussion by talking theory, but I'm happy to see that Vollkan is doing both.)

Originality (Although less sure than about his claim than AlyG's, I am still completely against lynching him.)

AlyG (I believe his claim.)

Shaft.ed (similarly, I don't have any major doubts about him at this point.)

Again, Gem is the scummy one, but Elias is the one on the list.

842: Criticises Orig’s listing, then comments she would suspect Gem much more if dybeck was scum. She agrees with me and shaft.ed
876: Wants dybeck or Oman to hang today
936: Agrees with me, more attacking on dybeck and wants a metagame on Oman
985: Declares she will likely be voting Oman because of him just wagoning on dybeck
986: Reinforces this
1072: Prods self
1131: Promises content
1152: Promises content
1172: Doesn’t like Korlash’s attacks on me or shaft.ed.
1217:

I think originality is the best lynch for today. Although Korlash is inherently scummier, a guilty investigation result is far more incriminating.

I want to vote for orig, but would prefer to see a votecount (and Elias' views)

Right.

Unvote

She is lurkish and there are a few problems, but by and large there is nothing overly damning, apart from her last post. Despite her lack of content, I largely agree with what she says and her scumdar seems well-tuned.

[Korlash]

Cool... see my only problem with her has been that I have not seen her Post anything useful lately. So I wasn't sure if you guys had seen something earlier that i should be aware of.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #33!

dybeck (1) - AlyG
Lucienne (1) - originality
originality (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, shaft.ed, Elias_the_Thief, Gemelli, Korlash, vollkan

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Day 2 Deadline: November 8

[Gemelli]

If it wasn't clear, the problem is that you want the SK lynched or dybeck. Lynching SKOrig makes it LYLO. I have a serious problem with that.

I understand that perspective. My reply is that a mislynch also leaves us in LYLO. And as you've just demonstrated with your confident vote on Luc yesterday, followed by an unvote today, the town's level of confidence in a consensus mafia target is currently quite low.

Gemelli, your number analysis is correct, but faulty because it fails to look at the motivation of the SK being his own survival and win:

As you yourself mentioned days ago, SKorig has already effectively lost. I struggle to think of a scenario where he can eke out a victory regardless of what he does tonight. So I think it is a big, big mistake for us to make any assumptions on how he will act. He is in my opinion a huge wild card that can play spoiler for either side as he sees fit.

I am not excited about sending us to LYLO. I would be a lot LESS excited about having us in LYLO and facing two NKs on N3. Please, let's think this through beyond the immediate N2/D3 impact -- we will eventually have to lynch the SK in order to win. Every night he lives, we risk reducing the town's plurality advantage.

Lynching SKOrig is as good as a mislynch. I do not want to mislynch, therefore I do not want to lynch SKOrig.

I disagree. A mislynch leaves us at LYLO with two scum factions remaining in the game, one of which is a complete random factor. An SK lynch is LYLO, but it reduces the random factor considerably.

I will say this again, since you seem to have missed it the first time:

if I thought we had a strong lead on a mafia player at this time, I would agree that lynching that player makes more sense. But IMHO we don't.

Well, the bit you quoted was on Lucienne.

And used the term "Gemellish," which is wat I reacted to.

Why does my behaviour raise alarm bells? I don't see how it is suspicious that I become very concerned when people advocate things which I know to be patently anti-town.

If you had stated it like that, I would have no problem with it. The alarm bells come from what I perceive as a marked increase in your use of strong, dramatic terminology in making your arguments. You could have said "I don't think that Lucienne has put a lot of thought into her argument, and that seems scummy." Instead, you chose to phrase it definitively: "Gemellish, she gives no thought to the consequences of lynching Orig but pushes his lynch. She is chronically lurking and her only content is plainly anti-town."

The other thing raising flags for me is that you have been increasingly making posts that you retract shortly afterwards. You stated yesterday (again, using definitive terms) that Luc's posts are plainly anti-town. Today, you withdraw that statement and your vote. THAT is behavior that strikes me as anti-town. We are close to a deadline, and consensus is needed. Taking what seem to me to be scattergun, poorly-founded potshots like this does NOTHING to help the town; it diminishes our focus and distracts from other topics of discussion.

Not true, at all.

If we mislynch today, Orig's best move is not to NK. That doesn't help the scum.

Again, I think this whole line of reasoning assumes too much, as I posted above.

Orig is never of any help to mafia, and is simply an alternate townie to them in the event of a mislynch. The difference with Orig is that he makes it a draw in a 1:1 situation, whereas townie makes it a mafia win. Thus, the mafia actually want to eliminate Orig.

Eventually they do. But orig is IMHO more of a threat to the town at this point than to the mafia. He wants to eliminate mafia, but he has just as little idea of who they might be as the town. Every NK he makes, assuming random targets, is more likely to hit town.

Therefore, the corollary of going after mafia today, is that we must try and be as global with our view of things as possible.

On that point, we agree. What I am looking for is a player that I feel is ~70% likely to be mafia. If we don't have strong consensus on such a player by deadline, I feel that lynching orig is FAR safer than a coin-flip lynch.

[shaft.ed]

AlyG, Lucienne & ETT: I would very much appreciate a more thorough description of your views of recent events. Specifically the validity of dybeck and originality's claims and who would be your prefered lynch at this point.

dybeck, I find your lack of commenting in thread recently a bit disturbing. You have a guilty on a proven killer and the lynch decisions seem to be drifting away from your obvious target. Yet you say nothing. Another thing that I find incongruous is that you state that

I'm glad I didn't claim earlier, though. We've learned a lot from today.

Yet you don't point to any of originality's scum buddies. In fact the only scum buddy you even talk about is Oman/Korlash, but this is only conversation to cover you ass since you were willing to support an Oman lynch even though you knew orig to be guilty:

I'm still happy that Oman/Korlash is probably scum. I'm pretty confident that it would still be a scum lynch, and if I hadn't come out, I'd have still thought it was a successful day, because I think we'd have nailed a scum, and I'd be certain of another investigation.

However, a Korlash lynch was looking decreasingly likely,

It strikes me because as a cop one would imagine that you would be afraid of getting NK'd. As such you would really want to get all of your theories out in the open before night phase especially since you've been viewing this day through a different lens than everyone else as you'd have known orig was guilty and thus see everyone's action in a different light. So the only way you're surviving is if our possibly existant doctor protects you, yet you have no mention of your fear of NK and haven't laid out any scum groups. This very much leads me to believe you are mafia and know orig to be a non-mafia killing role, thus you don't need to worry about dying tonight if you get your target.

So would you like to spell out who the scum are for the town? Such input would be very helpful from our town cop.

[dybeck]

Shaft.ed, I've tried banging on about originality in every post. It didn't work.

I'm pretty sure we'll lynch originality now, and if we don't, it'll be pretty clear who's responsible for the mislynch.

I've only had one investigation, so the rest of the scum are anybody's guess.

I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you. Don't know yet, but I'll find out. Why? Are you worried?

[shaft.ed]

Please address this.

It was hard to pick a scum, so I went with concensus.

Please demonstrate this "concensus."

I've only had one investigation, so the rest of the scum are anybody's guess.

I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you. Don't know yet, but I'll find out. Why? Are you worried?

Glad to see you put a lot of thought into this. Especially the part where you break down contigencies based on if orig is mafia or SK. O wait you didn't do that, becuase you're just making this up as you go along. And no I'm not.

[dybeck]

Huh?