New York 196: My Game, My Flavor Mafia (Mafia Win)

[Boem_u_dusi]

For those mathematically inclined among you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference

In case you don't get what I'm trying to do here.

[Dunnstral]

Wake, who do you want to see as Mirhawk's counterwagon?

The ones I previously mentioned.

You mean those 6 towns?

You saying all 6 are Town

does not

make all 6 of them Town.

Mafia 101.

I feel like Wake is town that's just severely misguided

OK, then explain to me with logic how all 6 are Town.

Go ahead and say how you know all of them can't possibly be Scum.

I'm not the one who said that, though

But when your mislynch pool is all 6 of them, yeah that's dumb

[Wake1]

I think it's reckless to automatically assume NO Scum could have bussed Vedith Day 1.

It's possible, but don't say it was either 100% yes or no when you don't know.

I mean, come on. Be logical. Deal in possibilities, not absolutes, especially when you can't possibly know one way or another.

It's foolish to assume no scum bussed Vedith D1.

But it makes people on Vedith wagon less likely to be scum (individually) because getting rid of a teammate doesn't help your wincon. That's why I'm opposed to lynching people who were on Vedith wagon and I'm trying to focus more on people outside that wagon today. I think Mirhawk's lynch is about 50% chance for us to get scum and Zach's lynch is about 5% chance. See where I'm going with this?

You initially said that all 6 were Town. Don't fucking say that if you acknowledge it's possible that Scum could have been on Vedith's wagon Day 1.

My SOLE contention is that it IS, indeed, possible. Stop trying to change the narrative. If people saw the writing on Vedith's wall then of COURSE it's possible a teammate could have voted for him. I may have done the same if I were Scum.

[Wake1]

But when your mislynch pool is all 6 of them, yeah that's dumb

First of all, you assume all of them are mislynches. I don't.

And no, it's not dumb. Show me exactly why you think otherwise.

[Boem_u_dusi]

Wake, I have another one for you

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anal_retentiveness

[Boem_u_dusi]

And I said it's probably 5/6 or 6/6 which seems about right from probability standpoint.

[Dunnstral]

And no, it's not dumb. Show me exactly why you think otherwise.

Because I think your reads are super bad and don't want to lynch any of those except maybe peregrine

Also you included the jailkeeper in there when you were on about doc/cop claiming earlier - no clue why you think that's a good lynch

[Wake1]

Boem, I understand you've been continuously trying to provoke me with personal digs, but all you're really doing is digging your grave for late game if you're Scum.

If you're Town I'm not sure what you're hoping to achieve with personal attacks.

[Boem_u_dusi]

Boem, I understand you've been continuously trying to provoke me with personal digs, but all you're really doing is digging your grave for late game if you're Scum.

If you're Town I'm not sure what you're hoping to achieve with personal attacks.

You're little hypocritical here, especially after 3952. All I've been trying to say that you are too nitpicky and obsess over unimportant things.

[Wake1]

Boem, I understand you've been continuously trying to provoke me with personal digs, but all you're really doing is digging your grave for late game if you're Scum.

If you're Town I'm not sure what you're hoping to achieve with personal attacks.

You're little hypocritical here, especially after 3952. All I've been trying to say that you are too nitpicky and obsess over unimportant things.

Leave no stone unturned.

[AGar]

@Airick

You do realize that refusing to claim, KNOWING that Varsoon had said "Don't lynch anyone without a claim because I can ~confirm~ people!" made that an implicitly pro-scum motive? No one was going to wildly hammer or speed up to a lynch with that, so by coming in and not claiming, she knew she stood to gain time to cop up a half-reasonable defense rather than claiming, Varsoon going "Lol nope." and her dying.

I disagree. You assume she knew about what Varsoon has claimed. I bet as a replacement, the first thing she noticed was that she was at L1 or L2. How is she to know a hammer wasn't going to come down at any minute? The recent posts there were saying we are waiting for you to claim before we hammer you. I absolutely believe if she was scum, she would have claimed immediately. I don't think scum would 'disobey' the town at a L1/L2 position at risk of being lynched.

So you're attacking her not claiming because it gives her time to defend herself? Personally, when I said I wanted to hear from Performer's replacement, I meant it.

She literally posted, after Varsoon put in big bold letters "If you lynch someone before they claim in this game, you're an idiot.", that she would not claim until she read up and got a reads list up. It was straight up stalling, and everyone's fucking buying into it like a bunch of dumbasses.

You're seriously making a lot of inferences into what her mindset was replacing in, rather than looking at the facts before us. Cut that shit out.

kraska - "Please lynch anyone but me, PLEASE!"

I actually don't mind getting lynched if i get to drive you to a corner first so you down after me
Why are you not pushing boem?

Because I have a scumbag in my sights with 5 votes. Why would I abandon this glorious ship?

Besides, you're in over your head. You're not going to back me into a corner. I'm town as it fucking gets, so deal with that, scumbag. Not to mention, me being scum means that I unvoted Titus and put fuel behind my hypothetical PR partner. A valuable PR at that.

If you had actually read up, instead of stalling and just coming up with whatever bullshit saved your neck, you would realize that.

The thing I'm missing here, why is it so bad that kraska claims and we confirm her alignment? Simple town/scum from Varsoon will suffice.

Two reasons.

1, if kraska is town there's no guarantee she's one of the roles Varsoon can confirm;
2, the real reason (and this is of course up to the will of the town as a whole) is that we should ask for a claim from someone else because kraska is very very town.

You've been so godawfully wrong so far in this game, jsyk.

kraska if you can make a case on agar that is more than

"his case on me is bullshit"

i'd POSSIBLY be willing to rope AGar.

but you gotta be convincing

Zach, this is not town. Just an FYI.

Well, can't argue with faux olde english

VOTE: Titus

Dunnstral why didn't you vig this? For fucks sake, man.

---

Seriously, this Mirhawk wagon is so awful, for fucks sake. It makes me cry and vomit.

He hasn't done anything to really IRK my gut. IMO I feel like this is multiball (and you better fucking believe I'm gonna voice my mind on that), and it's hard to tell. Sometimes the people who have the very most resistance to their wagons are Scum, like Titus, Dunnstral, and Zach. If it's MB any one of them could be Scum trying to hunt enemy Scum, and I'll be damned to be so Goddamn fucking naive to think it's unlikely this large game isn't mulitball. End of story.

I'm trying to catch up on other games, and I haven't paid much attention to Mirhawk. I'm not explicitly opposed to it, but I haven't come across any particularly compelling reason why we should LYNCH TEH MIRHAWKS. If it has NOTHING to do we actual information (i.e. the flips), then I need something very compelling to make me want to vote him. Personally my modus operandi is to focus my gameplay on the information we DO have, which is why I value the Vedith and Lapsa flips so much and everything that has to do with them and their interactions with other players and players who have said things to and about them. If someone agreed with Lapsa, it tells me something. If someone disagreed with Vedith, that too tells me something. Flips and associations. Flips and associations. That's my bread and butter and everything else has less credence, to put it bluntly in my honest and respectful opinion.

Wake, we had 1 kill last night claimed by a vig who was supposedly jail-kept. You need to commit to one of these three options right now:

A) Dunnstral is scum, there are two factions, they both shot Lapsa.
B) Dunnstral is town, there are two scum factions, THREE people shot Lapsa.
C) Dunnstral is town, there is one scum faction, they shot Lapsa.

Wakes reads are shit for the most part

titus if you dont explain why youre voting mirhawk over me, im voting you
VOTE: titus

The plot thickens!

Seriously. How obvious does it have to be. Performer gets run up. The replace out doesn't indicate anything, correct. The largely town-driven wagon loses some steam because another player says he can confirm people with a claim. The replacement comes in, says "I'm not claiming." The town loses even more steam. Some shady motherfuckers jump onto Mirhawk and now that wagon is struggling because the town who don't have their heads up their asses know this is a bad lynch. For fuck's sake people.

[Transcend]

Zach, this is not town. Just an FYI.

town

[Titus]

@Agar, Agree with the bulk of your wagon analysis, except for the part where you claim I have my head up my ass. Both are scum. Like I don't give two shits which one eats rope.

[Almost50]

So you're still playing that game of musical chairs hoping votes from one player to another just for the fun of it? Ok, cool!

VOTE: PV

[AGar]

@Agar, Agree with the bulk of your wagon analysis, except for the part where you claim I have my head up my ass. Both are scum. Like I don't give two shits which one eats rope.

I mean, that's fair. I still want a case on Mirhawk, like I've asked for since the beginning of Day 2. That would at least make me feel slightly better. That was more of a generalization than anything, about the whole town since we're stalling on that wagon hard.

[Titus]

@Agar, Agree with the bulk of your wagon analysis, except for the part where you claim I have my head up my ass. Both are scum. Like I don't give two shits which one eats rope.

I mean, that's fair. I still want a case on Mirhawk, like I've asked for since the beginning of Day 2. That would at least make me feel slightly better. That was more of a generalization than anything, about the whole town since we're stalling on that wagon hard.

Case on Mirhawk

Has done jackshit aside from agreeing with my push on Zach because Zach cannot realize why he lamisted.
Wagon on him is obvtown
Wagon on mirhawk is driven by Vedith voters, same as performer

[AGar]

@Agar, Agree with the bulk of your wagon analysis, except for the part where you claim I have my head up my ass. Both are scum. Like I don't give two shits which one eats rope.

I mean, that's fair. I still want a case on Mirhawk, like I've asked for since the beginning of Day 2. That would at least make me feel slightly better. That was more of a generalization than anything, about the whole town since we're stalling on that wagon hard.

Case on Mirhawk

Has done jackshit aside from agreeing with my push on Zach because Zach cannot realize why he lamisted.
Wagon on him is obvtown
Wagon on mirhawk is driven by Vedith voters, same as performer

Ummm..

Mirhawk (5): implosion, PeregrineV, Boem_u_dusi, kraska77, Titus

implosion - Probably town, but has been very off this game. I don't quite trust his reads.
Peregrine - Super null lurker.
Boem - Probably scum.
Kraska - Scum
You - Town.

I see 20% of that wagon that I trust. 60% of that wagon I wouldn't follow to the pearly gates if I had any choice. And the other 20% I hesitate to trust because he's been badly off on his reads.

[Titus]

Boem and implosion town.
I'm town.

PV is null because he always lurks.

All these slots voted flipped scum.

[Mirhawk]

Oh I missed this post
Dunn already said all he has to say about the claim episode. Your vote is useless because a) no wagon will form on Dunn today b) there is no new info you can get out of pushing Dunn now
If u think shannon or boem are scummy, push them. I don't agree with shannon bc i think she's been set up as convenient lynch bait but push her if you think she's scum
Point is your vote on Dunn has no utility

This is remarkably unimpressive to me considering you managed to not address any of the reasons I'm actually scumreading Dunn and Shannon for.

[Mirhawk]

i honestly did not feel an iota of pressure when i replaced in lol so if you guys would stop claiming im pressuring mirhawk to get the pressure off myself, that would be cool. im genuinely trying to sort mirhawk and so far he's doing a terrible job at making me reconsider a vote on him

If this is how you sort people I doubt you often get very good results.

[Mirhawk]

Suggesting multiball is dumb. Unless there is some kind of evidence otherwise there's no reason to suspect multiple factions.

[Mirhawk]

i cannot fathom any reason that titus would be lynched at all today

[Mirhawk]

His actions are removed from the game. What would voting you achieve? You claimed, people riled you up for it. You claimed and it's done. Almost 50 also claimed they jailed you
So like
What would a vote on you now achieve? I want to know. Because it seems to me that everything that can be said about this topic has already been said. A wagon on you is not happening and he knows it, so it follows that the vote on you is a pressure vote. But like. Is there something about your claim that still needs clarification or something? What new information would a pressure vote on you prompt at this point?

You're right I should definitely be on one of the leading wagons. Which would you prefer, yours or mine?

I'm on Dunn because I think Dunn's scum and I don't think the odds of you flipping scum are really all that great.

I suppose if I'm limited to only picking already formed wagons I could go with Implosion, but I simply don't feel like it.

If Dunn claimed to be vig who shot Lapsa, and you think he's scum, then wont the vig take care of that tonight?

So, combined with my personal belief that Dunn is town, your vote choice....is suspect.

Possibly, I admit I hadn't thought of this. There's no guarantee that there's a vig in the game though, there was only one kill last night after all.

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral why didn't you vig this? For fucks sake, man.

Because she's kind of obvious town??

Trust me if I had any thoughts of her being scum I'd have shot her following the force replace thing

[Boem_u_dusi]

Besides, you're in over your head. You're not going to back me into a corner. I'm town as it fucking gets, so deal with that, scumbag. Not to mention,

me being scum means that I unvoted Titus and put fuel behind my hypothetical PR partner.

A valuable PR at that.

Precisely.

implosion - Probably town, but has been very off this game. I don't quite trust his reads.
Peregrine - Super null lurker.

Boem - Probably scum.

Kraska - Scum

You - Town.

I see 20% of that wagon that I trust. 60% of that wagon I wouldn't follow to the pearly gates if I had any choice. And the other 20% I hesitate to trust because he's been badly off on his reads.

???

I think you need to reevaluate. Why is implosion more likely town for you? He didn't vote his

hypothetical scum partner

, unlike me or Performer slot.