Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Elias_the_thief]

:good posting:

[vollkan]

I understand that perspective. My reply is that a mislynch also leaves us in LYLO. And as you've just demonstrated with your confident vote on Luc yesterday, followed by an unvote today, the town's level of confidence in a consensus mafia target is currently quite low.

Yes, but at least by lynching elsewhere, we run a good chance of getting into a better situation.

Also, in order to maximise our benefit, we need to give Orig as much information as possible regarding the potential scum. If we lynch mafia today, Orig will very likely NK and, as such, we need him to hit mafia.

As you yourself mentioned days ago, SKorig has already effectively lost. I struggle to think of a scenario where he can eke out a victory regardless of what he does tonight. So I think it is a big, big mistake for us to make any assumptions on how he will act. He is in my opinion a huge wild card that can play spoiler for either side as he sees fit.

I agree. However, he can still win. If he is playing this game seriously, he will still work to maximise his own chances.

I am not excited about sending us to LYLO. I would be a lot LESS excited about having us in LYLO and facing two NKs on N3. Please, let's think this through beyond the immediate N2/D3 impact -- we will eventually have to lynch the SK in order to win. Every night he lives, we risk reducing the town's plurality advantage.

Okay,
Maflynch today = 5:2:1
MafNK = 4:2:1
----Orig NK town = 3:2:1. If we lynch Orig here, loss
----Orig no NK = 4:2:1. If we lynch Orig here, 3:2 LYLO
----Orig NK mafia = 4:1:1. If we lynch Orig here, 3:1 LYLO

The 3:2:1 situation I covered earlier.

FTR, the 3:2:1 scenario:
At 3:2:1,
Mislynch D3 = 2:2:1
MafNK of town = 1:2:1 (P=2/3)
--SK NK of town = 0:2:1 LOSS (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.33)
--SK NK of mafia = 1:1:1 YUCK (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.33)
MafNK of SK = 2:2:0 (P=1/3)
--SK NK of town = 1:2:0 LOSS (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.166)
--SK NK of mafia = 2:1 LYLO (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.166)

Maflynch D3 = 3:1:1
MafNK of town = 2:1:1 (P=3/4)
--SK NK of town = 1:1:1 YUCK (P=3/4) (Total P = 0.5625)
--SK NK of mafia = 2:0:1 LYLO (P=1/4) (Total P = 0.1875)
MafNK of SK = 3:1:0 (P=1/4)
--SK NK of town = 2:1:0 LYLO (P=3/4) (Total P = 0.1875)
--SK NK of mafia = 3:0:0 WIN (P=1/4) (Total P = 0.0625)

SKLynch D3 = 3:2:0
MafNK of town = 2:2 LOSS (P=1)

I will say this again, since you seem to have missed it the first time: if I thought we had a strong lead on a mafia player at this time, I would agree that lynching that player makes more sense. But IMHO we don't.

In which case, we put ourselves in LYLO for no good reason. At absolute worst, a mislynch makes things 3:3:1, which is lynch-mafia-or-lose.

MafLynch = 3:2:1
MafNK town = 2:2:1
Orig cannot NK because doing so and missing would trigger a mafia win by making it 1:2:1, no lynch, then maf NKs Orig.
MafLynch in 2:2:1 = 2:1:1.
MafNK town = 1:1:1.
If Orig NKs town, he draws it, if OrigNKs scum, he wins.

A mislynch today will be costly, but so will a lynch of Orig.

The other thing raising flags for me is that you have been increasingly making posts that you retract shortly afterwards. You stated yesterday (again, using definitive terms) that Luc's posts are plainly anti-town. Today, you withdraw that statement and your vote. THAT is behavior that strikes me as anti-town. We are close to a deadline, and consensus is needed. Taking what seem to me to be scattergun, poorly-founded potshots like this does NOTHING to help the town; it diminishes our focus and distracts from other topics of discussion.

I don't see how it is anti-town. She posts something markedly anti-town. I vote her. Then I go back and toothcomb things and decide she is not vote-worthy. There is nothing harmful in that.

AlyG, Lucienne & ETT: I would very much appreciate a more thorough description of your views of recent events. Specifically the validity of dybeck and originality's claims and who would be your prefered lynch at this point.

QFT, There is plenty to comment on and your inaction is unhelpful.

Shaft.ed, I've tried banging on about originality in every post. It didn't work.

I'm pretty sure we'll lynch originality now, and if we don't, it'll be pretty clear who's responsible for the mislynch.

I've only had one investigation, so the rest of the scum are anybody's guess.

I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you. Don't know yet, but I'll find out. Why? Are you worried?

I am REALLY, REALLY not liking dybeck right now. Let's see, he is saying the scum are among:
vollkan
shaft.ed
Lucienne
Orig
Korlash

He doesn't actually bother discussing who is mafia or SK. I know it isn't me and I am pretty sure it isn't shaft.ed. Orig is most likely the SK, which makes the mafia:

Lucienne, Korlash and...nobody. Lucienne has been against Oman rather strongly, same with shaft.ed actually.

Right then. dybeck's post makes no sense to me. Therefore, I invoke the scenario of dybeck being mafia. Dybeck has been crusading against shaft.ed and myself and Orig. Dybeck has links to Gemelli.

I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash

I want to throw out a question:- Who here believes dybeck is the cop? A simple yes or no will suffice.

[dybeck]

Why is Originality "probably the SK"?

I think Originality is mafia with Korlash and probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK.

I've said this (or a very similar permutation) already in this thread.

Where's the evidence for Orig being "probably the SK"? What have I missed?

[Korlash]

Well he did semi-claim it with the vig thing... That could be him trying to sugar coat being the sk... Why would he claim Vig if he knew the actual Vig/Sk was out there?

Other then that I have no opinion on Dybeck's claim. Yet... that I want to voice. I'm more interested in Lucienne and Elias then him and Orig. At least for now.

Lucienne has been against Oman rather strongly,

are you trying to use this as evidence of distancing, reasons why we are probably not partners, or just stating the facts? Don't want to jump to conclusions right now you know. (a... jump to conclusions mat... *laughs*)

Also, just because I laughed...

:good posting:

seriously? Come on was that a joke or do you just like to be maddeningly unhelpful? Seriously post more... >.> <.<

[vollkan]

Why is Originality "probably the SK"?

I think Originality is mafia with Korlash and probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK.

I've said this (or a very similar permutation) already in this thread.

Where's the evidence for Orig being "probably the SK"? What have I missed?

If this is the case, dybeck, then it still makes no sense to lynch Orig, because Lucienne will certainly NK him.

Evidence for Orig being SK:
1) The fact he sought to distance

himself

from the NK is important. He felt personally responsible, something mafia don't do.
2) The fact he just now jumped on Lucienne after I voted shows that he is trying desperately to lynch mafia by following my scumdar.

Oh, and why Lucienne?

are you trying to use this as evidence of distancing, reasons why we are probably not partners, or just stating the facts? Don't want to jump to conclusions right now you know. (a... jump to conclusions mat... *laughs*)

No. I was simply looking at the scenario that unfolds if certain educated assumptions are made.

Other then that

I have no opinion on Dybeck's claim. Yet... that I want to voice.

I'm more interested in Lucienne and Elias then him and Orig. At least for now.

You're doing my cryptic thing, I see. The problem here, though, is that I cannot really see any reason why your opinion on dybeck's claim is something which has an advantage being kept under wraps.

When I did not talk about the SK kill being disadvantageous, it was for the specific reason of seeing who would support a SK kill without thinking clearly.

I find your ambiguity here rather disturbing.

Anyway,

People's Opinion of dybeck

Vollkan

- Likely mafia

Korlash

- Not telling
<additional persons pending>

@dybeck: Lynching Orig is bad if he is SK and stupid if he is mafia. Therefore, I cannot understand why you would bother claiming. All you have done, if you are cop, is needlessly out yourself.

[Elias_the_thief]

:good posting:

seriously? Come on was that a joke or do you just like to be maddeningly unhelpful? Seriously post more... >.> <.<

It was a joke, making fun of the post before mine.

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. From one perspective, Dybeck as doc doesnt want to claim early because there is already incriminating evidence against orig, and claiming isnt necessary. Therefore the late claim isnt so outlandish.
On the other hand, Dybeck as mafia can make a pretty good bet that Orig is sk, (or maybe theyre both mafia, to rule nothing out) and the claim gives him reason for a heavy push as well as credibility tomorrow. Even if Orig turns out to be vig, Dy can claim that he might be paranoid or insane cop. So it's up in the air.

I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

[originality]

Why is Originality "probably the SK"?

I think Originality is mafia with Korlash and probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK.

I've said this (or a very similar permutation) already in this thread.

Where's the evidence for Orig being "probably the SK"? What have I missed?

I doubt you have ever mentioned Lucienne before. Where did I miss this?

[originality]

And vollkan, I brought up the original case against Lucienne and had my vote on her for quite some time. Only changed it to dybeck because no one was paying attention to me after a while. So don't say I'm just "following your scumdar".

[Gemelli]

Yes, but at least by lynching elsewhere, we run a good chance of getting into a better situation.

I'm still not convinced that our chances are markedly better by taking our chances with a mislynch, but it is late, I am tired, and I am new. If there is general agreement -- meaning a quorum of players aside from vollkan and originality who agree that lynching originality is a bad play, bearing in mind what the two of us have posted -- then I will drop the issue. I would greatly appreciate it if the rest of you could post your opinion on this:

Is lynching Originality actually a bad play for today?

I am on the verge of dropping the matter altogether.

I don't see how it is anti-town. She posts something markedly anti-town. I vote her. Then I go back and toothcomb things and decide she is not vote-worthy. There is nothing harmful in that.

No no no. You did not post that she posted "something" that was anti-town. You posted "her only content is plainly anti-town." Exactly the type of charged, overstated language that has me suspecting you at this point. If you would stick to specifics, rather than making sweeping statements of opinion as if they were facts, you and I would not be having this conversation. I do not take issue with your arguments and opinions: I take issue with how you have been expressing them. Okay?

Right then. dybeck's post makes no sense to me. Therefore, I invoke the scenario of dybeck being mafia. Dybeck has been crusading against shaft.ed and myself and Orig. Dybeck has links to Gemelli.

I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash

And for some reason, the person who you voted for most recently is left off your list completely. Riiiiight. Meanwhile, you find a more likely scenario is that I am aligned with Korlash, despite me spending nearly the entire game attacking the posts of his predecessor? I can understand you lumping me and dybeck together, but come on.

I want to throw out a question:- Who here believes dybeck is the cop? A simple yes or no will suffice.

I do. If I have been snowed by Dybeck, I will surely pay for it. But the fact of the matter is that I suspected he might have this role weeks ago, based on his posts, and he has claimed it. I do not agree with much of what he's posted, and I will be the first to agree that his posts have been confrontational and single-minded. But I find the content (if not the tone) of his posts consistent with what I'd expect from a cop who had gotten a guilty result.

I believe that dybeck is either mafia or cop. I am currently leaning 60% cop, 40% mafia.

FWIW, I currently believe that the mafiia are three of the following players:

Lucienne
Elias
Korlash
Dybeck
Vollkan

I'm going to try to get in some PBPAs of those players this week. Wish me luck as I prepare for Vollkan's

[vollkan]

PBPA of Elias

23: Votes Orig to -3 for suggesting that lurkers be lynched.
49: Orig is more of a newbie tell. Sends vote to Oman.
52: Frustration at Oman's small white text
58: Responds to Oman's accusation that ETT is reaching by saying Oman's weirdness is the best tell so far
59: Clarifies last post
80: Queries whether shaft.ed is accusing him of quicklynch trapping
90: Says premature claiming is anti-town but not necessarily scumtell. This is defending BS (Gemelli)
92: Affirms 90
118: FoSes BS
119: Will be away
121: Says that BS cannot do much more harm than he already has, and can therefore be no more of a liability. Again defending BS
124: Is considering wagoning on VH
194: Promises content
236: FoSes dybeck for role-fishing BS
238: Affirms 236
240: Affirms 240
243: Angry at Oman for role-fishing BS
246: Rolefishing is

more suspicious than

BS. Again, I see a "more suspicious than" as a buddy-tell.
325: Angry at Ryan for his PM quoting
369: promises content
519: Promises conent
550: Explains his lurking
975: Is willing to return
978: Needs streeflo's approval
988: A big post: Believes AlyG and thinks Orig is SK. Interesting, Orig does not explain why Orig cannot be mafia.
989: Apologises for losing most of his post
991: Gemelli is using wifom and Elias disagrees with some of his points. A strange post really, since it doesn't add anything other than critique of Gemelli.
994: Suggests I am wrong about it being good not to NK Orig because "what if the

mafia

doesn't kill him". Again, assuming SK. Also asks for me to give my case on dybeck and shaft.ed to give his case on Oman.
997: Regarding his rejoining.
1009: Attacking Orig
1010: Promises content
1021: Analyses my case on dybeck. In hindsight, it's interesting that he thought most of what I had raised on dybeck suggested dybeck was scummy or weird, but he doesn't think the case holds significant weight. This post, at the time, persuaded me that I was being too harsh on dybeck.
1023: Asks if I need clarification
1024: ooc
1029: just on the "September 1" deadline.
1035: wifoms about replacement, criticises my attack on Oman. He would "probably be willing to vote dybeck" but would "rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum".
1037: promises content
1059: backs down on Orig lynch after my numbers
1069: points out typo
1078: again criticises letting vig/SKOrig live because of "what if the mafia doesn't kill him"
1081: argues the mafia will want SK/VigOrig to NK
1085: Not much. Accuses me of getting pissed off because I got argumentative over Elias continuing to suggest that Orig's lynch might be helpful
1112: Comments on the stupid vanilla ice-cream thing
1156: Comments on my scum hunting style
1225: Suggests to Lucienne that he will not contribute until she does. Also, he says "I know is that lynching orig would be bad." He never explained where his position changed on this matter. I mean, he did retract his support, but he did keep arguing about my logic and never entirely withdrew.
1227: Looks at my scumlists. Suggests that he is unsure of why I would suspect Lucienne when Korlash has given more tells.
1250: joke post
1255: just above

It was a joke, making fun of the post before mine.

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. From one perspective, Dybeck as doc doesnt want to claim early because there is already incriminating evidence against orig, and claiming isnt necessary. Therefore the late claim isnt so outlandish.
On the other hand, Dybeck as mafia can make a pretty good bet that Orig is sk, (or maybe theyre both mafia, to rule nothing out) and the claim gives him reason for a heavy push as well as credibility tomorrow. Even if Orig turns out to be vig, Dy can claim that he might be paranoid or insane cop. So it's up in the air.

I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

I disagree with this, since the reason you give for dybeck being cop is hardly particularly strong. You might equally say that he was mafia who thought he could score an Orig lynch early on, but then saw the tides turning and claimed cop.

My thoughts overall

- Defends BS early on as well as doing a "more scummy than", both of which ring bells for me as buddy tells. Other than that, his critique of my case on dybeck was interesting. At the time I was wavering on dybeck myself, and dybeck's conclusions kind of threw me off. Looking back at his critique, he really found quite a bit of it rather scummy, but his conclusion was very ambivalent. Additionally, his attitude towards lynching Orig in light of my proof it was bad is interesting. He was for the lynch, then withdrew, then criticised my logic, then I argued back. Then the argument dies and he comes back saying he "knows" it will be bad.

If Elias is scum, I peg Gemelli as his most likely partner, followed by dybeck.

[vollkan]

I'm still not convinced that our chances are markedly better by taking our chances with a mislynch, but it is late, I am tired, and I am new. If there is general agreement -- meaning a quorum of players aside from vollkan and originality who agree that lynching originality is a bad play, bearing in mind what the two of us have posted -- then I will drop the issue. I would greatly appreciate it if the rest of you could post your opinion on this: Is lynching Originality actually a bad play for today? I am on the verge of dropping the matter altogether.

I've shown this already with the numbers. It puts us in LYLO. At worst, if the mafia keep Orig alive, we are in LYLO also. The mafia would be stupid to keep Orig alive. I am going to say it again:

Lynching Orig is BAD!

No no no. You did not post that she posted "something" that was anti-town. You posted "her only content is plainly anti-town." Exactly the type of charged, overstated language that has me suspecting you at this point. If you would stick to specifics, rather than making sweeping statements of opinion as if they were facts, you and I would not be having this conversation. I do not take issue with your arguments and opinions: I take issue with how you have been expressing them. Okay?

Fine. Appreciate that I am argumentative and take strong positions. In the case of Lucienne, what I meant by "her only content is plainly anti-town" was this:

"Lucienne's only real content of late (content being something unique that makes a statement as to her own actual stance) is her latest post which is plainly anti-town."

I do. If I have been snowed by Dybeck, I will surely pay for it. But the fact of the matter is that I suspected he might have this role weeks ago, based on his posts, and he has claimed it. I do not agree with much of what he's posted, and I will be the first to agree that his posts have been confrontational and single-minded. But I find the content (if not the tone) of his posts consistent with what I'd expect from a cop who had gotten a guilty result.

Or with a mafia who knows that he has found their biggest threat.

FWIW, I currently believe that the mafiia are three of the following players:

Lucienne
Elias
Korlash
Dybeck
Vollkan

I'm going to try to get in some PBPAs of those players this week. Wish me luck as I prepare for Vollkan's

Interesting. My list is the same as yours but with your name substituted for mine.

And good luck, my word you'll need it

[Korlash]

You're doing my cryptic thing, I see. The problem here, though, is that I cannot really see any reason why your opinion on dybeck's claim is something which has an advantage being kept under wraps.

No offense but you always seem to attack whatever I say. So I do not want to worry about my answer making you go into some unknown trap/attack on me before I clear up what I am trying to first.. such as additional posts form Elias and Lucienne.

But to be honest, I too see no reason to doubt his claim, but at the same time the fact he would go after me like he did with a guilty investigation on Orig seems odd. For now put me down as undecided, I will not blindly believe him because he has not "acted cop" like I would think someone would do, but I have already said no one should pretend to know how they act and so I cannot count out the fact he is just a different kind of player then me.

As for my scum list... Your all on it. Plain and simple... No matter how "pro-town" you are I have no proof of your affiliation and so I will not be stupid and not consider you possible scum. A few of you are "less likely" and a few are "more likely" but to have a list with anyone you are not %100 certain is town on it seems kinda dumb... Again I will not pretend to know how you should or are playing so... to each his own...

[vollkan]

As for my scum list... Your all on it. Plain and simple... No matter how "pro-town" you are I have no proof of your affiliation and so I will not be stupid and not consider you possible scum. A few of you are "less likely" and a few are "more likely" but to have a list with anyone you are not %100 certain is town on it seems kinda dumb... Again I will not pretend to know how you should or are playing so... to each his own...

The best thing you can do right now if you are pro-town is to tell us where your suspicions most lie. Use the sort of % listing thing that I do, if that helps. One sentence per person in explanation will suffice.

People's Opinion of dybeck

Vollkan

- Likely mafia.

Korlash

-

Not telling

Undecided

Elias

- Tentative yes

Gemelli

- Yes. 60% cop, 40% mafia.
<additional persons pending>

[Korlash]

Cool, I will do that first thing in the morning. For now it's night night time... Stupid getting up early and going into work...

[AlyG]

Very Very sorry for my absence. I'll post more later. About Dybeck's claim e.t.c. Again sorry.

[dybeck]

I would greatly appreciate it if the rest of you could post your opinion on this:

Is lynching Originality actually a bad play for today?

I am on the verge of dropping the matter altogether.

Of course it isn't a bad play. There are just too many scum in this game. Don't be led by them.

There are 4 scum to only 5 town. And it looks like the scum are the most vocal. Obviously we lynch confirmed scum.

[vollkan]

1

Of course it isn't a bad play.

2

There are just too many scum in this game. Don't be led by them.

3

There are 4 scum to only 5 town.

4

And it looks like the scum are the most vocal.

5

Obviously we lynch confirmed scum.

Yet another well-reasoned and thought-out post from our "cop"

1) It is a bad play. Stop blindly denying my arguments. If you think I am wrong, prove it. Nobody has yet provided any numerical justification for lynching the SK, whilst I have been hammering away for pages now at just how stupid such an action is (to say nothing of lynching the possibility of a mafOrig).

2) You're appealing to fear and danger here, despite being totally ignorant of the numbers. I really dislike the "don't be led by them", because all it really means is "listen to me"

3) Your first bit of numerical analysis is to count how many scum there are. I don't know whether to laugh or cry...

4) A major, unsubstantiated assertion here. "The scum are the most vocal"? Well, I assume you are including me in that. I'd love to know who else is scummy on the basis of activity.

5) "Lynch confirmed scum..." and either put ourselves in LYLO (if Orig = SK) or waste our lynch on someone who will be NKed anyway and then expose ourselves to the risk of a random NK (if Orig = mafia).

A pro-town cop should simply NOT be talking like this.

HoS: dybeck

Judging by the views expressed so far, it's beginning to look like things are sliding in favour of dybeck, and there seems to be a growing movement to lynch Orig. I've argued my case and I haven't been rebutted; yet people are still ignoring me.

At the moment, I am most awaiting content from AlyG. AlyG, please give me clear answers to the following:
1) Do you believe dybeck's claim?
2) Do you believe lynching Orig today is the right move?
3) Who do you think the scum are

[Korlash]

Ok, had a nice little tiny amount of sleep and boy am I tired...

Lets see... what to begin with... I suppose I can give my input on a few things then give my "scumdar" thing...

A major, unsubstantiated assertion here. "The scum are the most vocal"?

Well, I assume you are including me in that.

I'd love to know who else is scummy on the basis of activity.
...
A pro-town cop should simply NOT be talking like this. HoS: dybeck

No offense here Vollkan, but if Dybeck is really the cop I think he should more or less be telling you to go F*** your numbers. I mean if I was the cop I would push for a guilty investigation lynch all day until either I am the one dead or my target is. And anyone defending my target would obviously get flagged as potential scum buddies.

Granted, I have seen your numbers, and I fully understand your logic. But I think counting on your fingers and toes pales in comparison to actual hard evidence. And no matter how much you try to predict the odds of how people act, 9 times out of 10 your wrong. I have already seen this proved this game, mostly with your so called "traps" against me.

waste our lynch on someone who will be NKed anyway and then expose ourselves to the risk of a random NK (if Orig = mafia).

To be honest here, the more you talk about it, the less likely I am thinking he would be NKed if he were mafia. The only person I see NKing him would be a Vig. However, I would think the SK may leave him alive to try and make him a scapegoat tomorrow. Honestly, if the entire town kept confirming the fact that player X is going to be NKed anyways, why Nk him? It just sounds so... Well... stupid...

But this point really does not matter, because if he survives the night he gets lynched tomorrow right? so either way he dies... However, if he is not the SK/Vig then thats an additional two more deaths we have to worry about. I have been weighing the possibility of both Sk and Vig in my mind. I mean we are on a plain that has a killer on board. That of course would point to an Sk right there. Yet in many plain/hijacking situations there is usually someone who fights back, or in this case a vig. I could honestly see them both because if Orig is the Scum, then that woudl mean Vig killed whats his name... spurgistan. And I will admit when I did my reread he was another of my likely scum people. So I have always been harboring the fact that perhaps Orig is not the supposed Vig/Sk.

Again I am not pushing for his lynch here or anything. Just more of my crappy thoughts for you to attack. I will say it is kinda hard for me to agree that pushing so hard for your guilty investigation is not "pro-town cop" material... I mean that is actually one of the main focus points I have in believing a cop claim. But I still cannot ignore all the times he Didn't do that in the past. And so I still do not fully believe his claim.

All right that out of the way...

My scum list (In order of "scumminess")

1)Lucienne-Roughly %60
1)Elias-Roughly %60
~They both seem a bit to inactive at this point when their opinion really matters here. So I have them set kinda high because I really want to get more out of them.

2)Originality- %55
~ either Vig or Sk, already killed a towny, has guilty investigation. All signs point to bad for town in some way. Vollkan has made good points about keeping him alive, but there is always a possibility those two are the scum buddies and would mean it would be bad to listen to Vollkan. Either way I do not want to lynch him now. Especially without Elias's or Lucienne's input.

3) Vollkan- Even %50
~Personal Feelings aside, I think he is one of the best players I have ever seen so I respect a lot he has been saying and tend to agree with him about certain stuff. Some things look pro town to me, while others seem a bit more... I don't know... (I would laugh my head off if he turned out to be the Vig/Sk XD)

4) Dybeck- %45
~Do not fully believe his claim because of a few things, did not immediately switch vote after claiming guilty investigation, seemed to waver a bit from his original target. But he seems more or less sticking with his "lynch Orig" policy now even with Vollkan repeatedly attacking him for it. I can see both sides ATM but am finding it hard to agree with Dybeck mostly because he does not have that "posting flair" Vollkan does.

5)AlyG-About %30
5)Gem-About %30
~These two just haven't really set any alarms off in my head. Apparently I missed something about Gem somewhere but I keep seeing his name under "likely scum" with like me or dybeck as his partner or something... Crazy... I like the way Gem posts things personally. And much like Vollkan, I can see his side 9 times out of 10.

6)Shaft.ed- A good %25
~I really do not have much to go on here. I agree he seems likely pro-town. Any things I had on him seem to be cleared up. I only see him as mafia under one condition, and that is as Vollkan's partner and as unlikely as that sounds I cannot count it out. So while I agree he is one of the most likely Townies, there is always that shot is is just that good as a mafia.

7) Korlash- Roughly %10
~This guy is simply an Asshole... He stole my lunch the other day and now he is putting words in my mouth. I have nothing to go on but a Role pm I got so it is only a hunch... but I think he is town...

Alright time for work... see you guys in another 10 or so hours...

[vollkan]

No offense here Vollkan, but if Dybeck is really the cop I think he should more or less be telling you to go F*** your numbers. I mean if I was the cop I would push for a guilty investigation lynch all day until either I am the one dead or my target is. And anyone defending my target would obviously get flagged as potential scum buddies.

If I was the cop, I would think and realise that there is no advantage in me claiming, since Orig is either not worth killing (if he is mafia) or is bad to kill (if he is SK). Things would be very different if Orig had not been confirmed killer previously, of course. However, dybeck's claim has given no reason to lynch Orig.

I am aware that if Orig is mafia, my own position is compromised severely, but that's an unlikely situation in contrast to the very imminent problems I see right now.

Granted, I have seen your numbers, and I fully understand your logic. But I think counting on your fingers and toes pales in comparison to actual hard evidence. And no matter how much you try to predict the odds of how people act, 9 times out of 10 your wrong. I have already seen this proved this game, mostly with your so called "traps" against me.

But my numbers have trumped everything. I am the one agreeing that Orig is most likely the SK; I don't dispute that. All the "evidence" is saying is that Orig is probably the SK. My numbers build upon that to point out that lynching him is not in our best interests.

As for my traps, you are assuming that their purpose was to "catch" rather than to research. I got plenty of research from them. A catch would be a bonus.

To be honest here, the more you talk about it, the less likely I am thinking he would be NKed if he were mafia. The only person I see NKing him would be a Vig. However, I would think the SK may leave him alive to try and make him a scapegoat tomorrow. Honestly, if the entire town kept confirming the fact that player X is going to be NKed anyways, why Nk him? It just sounds so... Well... stupid...

Not true at all. The SK's biggest enemies right now are the mafia. The SK acts in self interest. Therefore, the SK will kill mafOrig.

Of course, I believe Orig to be the SK, but this is just what happens if he is mafia.

But this point really does not matter, because if he survives the night

he gets lynched tomorrow right?

so either way he dies... However, if he is not the SK/Vig then thats an additional two more deaths we have to worry about. I have been weighing the possibility of both Sk and Vig in my mind. I mean we are on a plain that has a killer on board. That of course would point to an Sk right there. Yet in many plain/hijacking situations there is usually someone who fights back, or in this case a vig. I could honestly see them both because if Orig is the Scum, then that woudl mean Vig killed whats his name... spurgistan. And I will admit when I did my reread he was another of my likely scum people. So I have always been harboring the fact that perhaps Orig is not the supposed Vig/Sk.

Who said he gets lynched tomorrow?

We may well have a vig (who chose not to NK yesterday), but we cannot act on such speculation.

We need to assume that we have two scumgroups: 3-person mafia and SK (Orig) so that we are accommodating for the worst possible scenario.

As for your scumdar, well done. That is exactly what I want to see.

~ either Vig or Sk, already killed a towny, has guilty investigation. All signs point to bad for town in some way. Vollkan has made good points about keeping him alive, but there is always a possibility those two are the scum buddies and would mean it would be bad to listen to Vollkan. Either way I do not want to lynch him now. Especially without Elias's or Lucienne's input.

Does this mean that you oppose lynching SK-Orig? By the sounds of it, your sole concern is the prospect of me being scum with Orig.

4) Dybeck- %45
~Do not fully believe his claim because of a few things, did not immediately switch vote after claiming guilty investigation, seemed to waver a bit from his original target.

But he seems more or less sticking with his "lynch Orig" policy now even with Vollkan repeatedly attacking him for it.

I can see both sides ATM but am finding it hard to agree with Dybeck mostly because he does not have that "posting flair" Vollkan does.

The bolded bit seems to be your main point in dybeck's "favour". Consider, though, that such an attitude is just as likely to be exhibited by a mafia trying to get rid of the SK and put town in LYLO as it is a pro-town cop. Indeed, given the numbers, I think that it is actually far more scummy than it is pro-town.

5)AlyG-About %30
5)Gem-About %30
~These two just haven't really set any alarms off in my head. Apparently I missed something about Gem somewhere but I keep seeing his name under "likely scum" with like me or dybeck as his partner or something... Crazy... I like the way Gem posts things personally. And much like Vollkan, I can see his side 9 times out of 10.

Use of the word "crazy" is interesting, because it is not "crazy". In fact, I think it is a legitimate suggestion.

[shaft.ed]

-The Inconsistencies of the dybeck Claim-

The post will document the problems with dybeck's cop claim, hopefully in their entirety. They will be listed chronologically from his actions yesterday to today.

-Why investigate originality?

His investigation of originality is off. While today he has tried to backpeddle with vagueries like

It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday.
...
It was hard to pick a scum, so I went with concensus.

He simply did not find originality that scummy yesterday:

the entire bandwagon on Originality looks like it's based on a dumb thing he said on like Page 1 and his failure to defend himself adequately since then. It has all the hallmarks of a newbie error than a scum slip, and my gut says he's not scum.
...
I'm not feeling this originality wagon

Yet he did find other players scummy yesterday:

This is quite simply the scummiest thing I have ever read in all the time I've ever played mafia.

You're deliberately acting scummy so you don't get nightkilled? And now... when miraculously you don't get nightkilled, this is going to be your excuse for the rest of the game?

No way. No way in the world.

unvote, vote: Dr. "I lie about powerroles" Blackstrike*

...
More scummy than Dr. Blackstrike or Oman, both of whom looked pretty scummy yesterday.

*Side note interesting that he quickly unvoted Dr. BS under the guise of protecting town power roles, another Gemelli link.

So here we have dybeck of yesterday who obviously found Dr. BS scummy and today reffered to Dr. BS and Oman as being scummy yesterday. Yet originality moves way up from being a newbie to the target of his cop investigation. I've given dybeck ample chance to explain this and all he has come up with was that he went with concensus. This concensus simply did not exist. Dr. BS was the largest suspect of yesterday. It would be hard fought to find a concensus for originality's scumminess above other players in yesterdays posts. This really looks like someone trying to pretend to be a cop that doesn't have the insight. Leaning towards SK here.

-Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

This has already been brought up, but dybeck did not even utter the word originality in the first RL week of this day. Instead he hounded me for being the SK based on one single comment I made in my first post of the day. This seems like a great way to start building a case on your guilty investigation. He only begins to scream from rooftops that originality is guilty once a tracker has outed him as a killing role. That couldn't be a coincidence could it?

-Where is your case against originality?

While dybeck claims a guilty investigation on originality he has provided no new evidence against him. His only line of reasoning against orig has been, Orig killed Carrotcake, Carrotcake was a townie; therefore, orig must be scum. All of this evidence has been available to the entire town. The only bit that dybeck has added has been "I'm the cop and he's guilty." If you were in fact the cop and had a guilty claim on someone I would hope that you would be able to come up with some evidence for his guilt that other people had not talked about. Why else would you have investigated him? Thus far you have not provided any mention of originality's D1 play that is scummy outside of the sad vagueries described above. If you are a cop and you investigate someone, one would hope that while you are deciding who to investigate you would obtain plenty of instances where you can paint that player as scum. Even further, one would hope you would bring up these instances when making your case against your guilty claim. I have seen nothing more than these mentioning Carrotcake:

So... originality... did you think of a reason why you targeted our most pro-town player yet?
No way. Carrotcake was actively scumhunting yesterday, and frankly was my absolute first pick for being protown - bar none.
...
If I'd been scum, I would have targeted him. If I'd been the doctor, I would have targeted him. If I were the vig, I most certainly would not have.

However, I have already demonstrably refuted the fact that Carrotcake was an incredibly protown player. He made

ONE

scum hunting post out of his total of

NINE

posts. (Complete analysis in post 617)

-If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

This has also been mentioned, but if you have a guilty investigation why are you so supportive of an Oman lynch? Instead of finding other scummy actions of originality yesterday, or providing any evidence other than "orig killed carrotcake" you decide to just take out someone else you feel is linked to him. Yet he's not even the greatest link to orig, that'd be vollkan. Here's the quote for posterity's sake:

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

-Why did you claim prematurely?

We've just seen all of the heat Korlash took when he quasi-claimed prematurely. You did the same claiming from the heat of L-2.

-Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

The most obviously wrong aspect of your claiming post was the fact that you

didn't even vote for originality

. It seems that coming out in such a situation one would want to get votes moving in the direction of your guilty target. Yet you neglected to do so, were you flustered when making up content for that post?

-Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

For someone who has played the entire day under the knowledge that one person is scum and those protecting him are quite possibly his partners, you've added no information as to what playing from this angle has done to affect your theoretical scum groups. This should be the top priority of an outed cop because without knowledge of a doctor in the game you should be dead overnight. One would very much expect you to be providing your likely scumgroups based on orig's alignment especially since we know that he could come up SK or mafia. Your recent attempt to do so can best be described as lacking, and is fitting with your inclination towards hunting scum throughout the day. All you've said is:

I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you.

How in the hell does that help the town?


In case it isn't clear I don't believe dybeck's claim in the least.

[shaft.ed]

As far as who to lynch today, it has to be dybeck or originality. I don't know why other peole are supporting other somewhat random townies for lynch, especially one who is such a fan of numbers.

We know that dybeck and originality's claims are mutually exclusive, thus at least one of them has to be scum, and there is a possibility that they both are. Thus lynching one of them has greater than 50% odds of hitting scum. Anyone else in the town is much lower than this and thus should not be considered. Also even if we hit SK putting us in LyLo this is better than hitting town and being in 3:2:1 if we have a nonOrig SK.

I also posit that lynching dybeck has the possibility of providing more information of originality's alignment than lynching origanilty has on dybeck's alignment. If we lynch dybeck he comes up SK, we know orig is mafia and can then autolynch tommorow. If he comes up mafia then we know orig is either vig or SK. If he comes up town (which I doubt given his horrible cop claim) then we know orig is scum of some sort. If orig comes up mafia or SK we still don't know if dybeck is a cop becuase he could easily be faking the investigation given the info AlyG provided. If orig comes up vig we know that dybeck is either mafia or SK faking cop.

[shaft.ed]

Damn it I knew I would miss something on my dybeck analysis. This goes under the

Why hammer someone else

section.

Not only did dybeck offer to hammer Oman, but he very flippantly votes Korlash one day after he replaced in for Oman, and when he only has one other vote on him (that being Gemelli interestingly enough). That's what we call dedication to our night investigation:

No I'm saying if you are so sure he is mafia then you should also account for the fact he is certain to be NK'd.

OK well let's lynch Korlash. In any event we get originality tomorrow.

unvote, vote: Korlash

[Elias_the_thief]

My scum list (In order of "scumminess")

1)Lucienne-Roughly %60
1)Elias-Roughly %60
~They both seem a bit to inactive at this point when their opinion really matters here. So I have them set kinda high because I really want to get more out of them.

you realize this is a

scum

list right? not a list of people who you want to pressure? Do you honestly feel that me and lucienne are the most likely scum based on the fact that we've posted the least? If so, thats ridiculous.

Further, I havent even been that inactive lately. I've been keeping up and posting my opinion where needed. It's starting to get kind of irritating how the latest cool thing to do is go "hmm, i cant think of anything to say, hey lucienne and elias! post something!"

Anyways, Shafted makes some good points on the Dybeck claim, many that I missed, mainly because I was in my official out of game stage. Now that the these things are pointed out to me, they definately add up. So Dybeck just moved up several spots on my LoS.

[shaft.ed]

ETT, that's a good point. I don't think simply calling someone a lurker warrants calling them scum, but more input would be nice especially at this juncture. As such

AlyG, Lucienne & ETT: I would very much appreciate a more thorough description of your views of recent events. Specifically the validity of dybeck and originality's claims and who would be your prefered lynch at this point.

I know you touched on this last post in regards to dybeck, but a reply would be much obliged.

[Elias_the_thief]

Well, your post has certainly changed my mind on the Dybeck claim. Theres a lot of inconsistency there, and the motivation for scum to fake claim cop there is certainly plentiful. So, I'd put my opinion on the Dybeck claim as a tentative no, as opposed to the tentative yes that was there before. As to the Orig claim, Ive already told the town what I think of his claim, in fact, that was my first post upon reentering the game, debunking his claim. I'm fairly certain that Orig is our SK.

As for favored lynch? Orig seems like a bad choice, as Vollkan has pointed out multiple times. I dont believe Shafted or Vollkan are scum. Lucienne doesnt post enough to tell. Korlash and Gemelli I'm undecided on, though I dont like Korlashs play thus far. So I think that leaves me with Dybeck, who I've thought was slightly scummy throughout the game. Combined with the likelihood of his claim being false, he is my preferred lynch at this point.