Detailed PBPA of Vollkan, stream of consciousness style (for reference):
349: Casts a huge net of suspicion across the town. Notes that Oman giving AlyG townie brownies is "kind of like giving Hitler the Nobel Peace Prize." Sums up that after his D1 read:
vollkan wrote:Elias_the_thief: Has done nothing to arouse my suspicion, but I may do a reread on him just to be sure.
Oman: Started off well but became increasingly contrived and is now defending AlyG. From the above, I gave HoS: Oman
AlyG: Scum. Plain and simple. I have already voted but I will put it down here again for mod?s convenience and because I want to vote him again. Vote: AlyG
Dr. Blackstrike: Newbish. I don't think is scum.
Lucienne: Not particularly notable but a potential scumbuddy with AlyG based on earlier stuff.
originality: On one hand, AlyG has been rabidly against Orig. On the other, Orig's latest play is defending himself and AlyG. FoS: originality
shaft.ed: Town.
dybeck: Similar to Elias.
353: Continues to press AlyG. Defends AlyG charge that Lucienne was lurking ("she wasn't, FTR"). Notable quote:
vollkan wrote:Prodding for opinions is something I consider a scumtell. By all means, say "X is not contributing" but specifically asking "What do you think of A, B and C?" looks like you are trying to get a particular response.
363-4: Questions dybeck about why he accused shaft.ed of being the SK.
374: Responds to shaft.ed's post suggesting that vollkan's accusation of AlyG is over the top. Explains why he thinks Dr. BS is newbish, not scummy.
382: Asks Oman why he thinks AlyG is more suspicious than Dybeck.
392: Explains that he thinks that Dybeck's "we should not kill the SK" strategy is only valid if we know the SK's identity.
394:
vollkan wrote:Thus, since I am sure a vig would not kill Carrot and find no reason for a vig to kill Spurg I can draw but one conclusion:
People we have a SK.
398-399: Numbers analyses. Spends equal time assessing whether we are at 6:2:1 or 5:3:1. Draws this conclusion:
vollkan wrote:Taking the 5:3:1 scenario,
If we lynch the SK today, then D3 opens at 4:3. LYLO.
If we lynch the scum today, then D3 opens at 3:2:1 in wcs. This is outcome (A) in my previous post. It can go any number of ways.
If we mislynch today, then D3 opens at 2:3:1 in wcs. Outcome (B) from above.
Uses this post to argue that it doesn't really matter whether we go after the SK or mafia today.
403: Responds to AlyG claim by unvoting.
408: Notes that tracker is actually a fairly safe claim for scum. Indicates that he suspects orig, but suspects AlyG more at this point.
413: Indicates that though he suspects AlyG, feels he should not vote for him as he is a claimed power role.
415: Indicates that if AlyG dies, orig should roleclaim before anything happens. FoS's dybeck for his willingness to vote originality so quickly.
439: Reacts to originality's vig claim. Lists four scenarios; states that both scenarios where orig=vig are unlikely. States that "Dybeck's willingness to follow AlyG is very smelly (along with the SK-shaft.ed stuff from just before)." Lists his two main options as either lynching AlyG, or looking elsewhere, and places a Dybeck vote.
446: Defends vigOrig as "plausible" if not likely. Indicates that if scum, Orig is likely to be killed by the rival scum faction tonight. Assesses contradictions in dybeck posts 286-404, in which dybeck switches from "my gut says [originality is] not scum" to "It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday" with no intervening posts mentioning orig.
448-449: Suggests bizarre (and ultimately proved ineffective) plan to confirm AlyG's alignment. "My feeling at the moment is that Dybeck is our SK and that AlyG is scum with Orig."
453: Continued numerical analysis with Oman. Again gives equal weight to the possibility of 5:3:1 or 6:2. Notable quote:
vollkan wrote:As we can see, our situation is VERY grim if there is a mafia trio. It means inescapable LYLO for us. Things are much better if it is a duo.
455: Responds to Oman's suggestion that 5:3:1 is more likely by saying "In Mini 467 ( a game I was in), there were 2 mafia, SK and no vig. I don't know whether 3 mafia and 1 SK is more likely, but 2 is a possiblity nonetheless." Also says "There is no logical reason for the SK to kill Carrot. As such, I think it more likely that Orig is mafia than SK."
457: Continued disc with Oman. "In short, our best bet is to lynch the SK. I feel confident AlyG is not the SK, her actions are either mafia or tracker." Rebuffs Oman suggestion that CarrotCake makes sense as an SK kill.
460:
vollkan wrote:If we lynch vig-Orig, D3 opens at wcs 4:3 LYLO.
If we lynch SK-Orig D3 opens at wcs 4:3 LYLO.
If we lynch maf-Orig D3 opens at wcs 3:2:1. (yuck)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is SK, D3 wcs is 2:3:1 (yuck)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is maf, D3 wcs is 2:3:1 (basically scum win)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is vig, D3 wcs is 3:3 LOSS (if Orig screws up again). If Orig doesn't shoot: 4:3 LYLO. If Orig succeeds: 4:2 LYLO.
If we lynch non-Orig mafia and Orig is SK, D3 wcs is 3:2:1 (yuck)
If we lynch non-Orig mafia and Orig is vig, D3 wcs is 3:2 LYLO (with mis-vig). If no-vig shot then 4:2 LYLO. If successful vig-shot then 3:1 LYLO.
If we lynch non-Orig SK, meaning Orig is maf D3 wcs is: 4:3 LYLO
Good grief...It looks like there are no advantages ANYWHERE without relying on help from maf or SK.
462: Suggests that AlyG should track originality. Votes originality.
463-464, 466, 468, 470, 472: Minor clarifications on analysis post.
474: Unvotes: "If Orig is a vig, the set-up is 6:3. In other words, a scum lynch today and a vig kill tonight can put as at 6:1. This game is well within our grasp. The constant focus on wcs has distorted things."
487: Agrees with shaft.ed that people should be careful with their votes at this point. Responds to Oman's post that "letting a killing role live the night will only lead to pain" by stating that:
vollkan wrote:It's a gambit, no doubt about that. Let's not forget, though, that Orig could easily have claimed weak doctor or something if he was the SK/mafia and did not want to expose himself to NK risk. The fact that has has claimed vig, a role likely to get NKed, points to him being genuine.
As such, I think our situation is 6:3 more likely than one of 6:2:1 or 5:3:1. I really don't think we should be killing Orig today.
Unvotes (despite not having a vote logged). Also states that "Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440. I am now sure that this stance is anti-town, but I myself held it just yesterday until I realised how stupid it is. I have my eye on them, particularly Dybeck given all the previous stuff."
Note: This is the first place where vollkan posts his "anyone who wants to lynch originality is anti-town" premise, despite he himself holding that opinion just a few posts ago.
492: Echoes shaft.ed that we should not guide AlyG's actions tonight. Replies to Lucienne's notice that she will be LA due to family emergency by saying "And I don't want Lucienne replaced."
494: Defends Originality's rationale for NK'ing carrotcake to Dybeck, stating that "it basically looks like an OMGUS kill."
496-497: Replies to Oman's post (claiming that he is convinced that orig is an SK) by stating that while there are good arguments for orig being the SK, "if he is the vig, we are really hurting ourselves by lynching him." Adds this post:
vollkan wrote:However, there is one fact which kind of defeats the whole SK theory: Orig claimed VIG.
If Orig is SK, why the hell would he claim the one pro-town role which we can be almost certain that the mafia will prioritise over all others.
I know that if I were a SK in Orig's position, I would have claimed weak doc or RB or something, NOT Vig.
Hence, my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.
501: Votes Oman, and FoS's dybeck, for arguing that Originality is the SK. "The fact that he is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig."
504: Replies to Oman's comment that "Wait, Vollkan was voting for originality, and even posted points on why he was an SK and not a vig and now you want to let him live?" by saying "now you are telling lies about what I said." Goes on to demonstrate that Oman's comment was not a lie at all, oddly.
506-508: Replies to Dybeck's FoS of vollkan by stating that "I think my case for Orig being vig is a hell of a lot more convincing than your blind support for a lynch or Oman's feeble arguments." and "I have just come to the conclusion that Orig is very likely not a SK. I guess this leaves us with Orig being vig or being mafia." Uses shaft.ed's analysis to support his case that originality is a vig. Further suggests that it is unlikely that originality would be mafia given the Vig claim. Votes for Dybeck again.
512: Tells originality that "you should kill...just be careful"
517: Replies to a shaft.ed FoS (stating that Vollkan's rapid voting, despite having agreed that quick votes are a bad idea, is suspicious) by stating that he will unvote if the wagon goes higher. Also turns a 180 at shaft.ed's prompting: "You're right. Don't kill tonight Orig."
523, 526: Replies to shaft.ed's comment that having dybeck at L-2 is not a good idea. Gives Oman some leeway for changing his mind. Posts suspicion of AlyG based on his prodding people to talk while not contributing content himself, and discusses the possibility of an AlyG/orig pairing. Discusses the possibility of lynching AlyG in order to confirm Originality's role, but still favors a Dybeck lynch.
534: Replies to orginality's responses.
536, 538: Notes that AlyG and Originality seem keen on getting role info from Dr BS.
544: Unvotes, but states that his vote is still on dybeck (??). Is again influenced by a shaft.ed post. Indicates that his "lynch AlyG" suggestion was a trap. States that "The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig."
549: Lauds shaft.ed for a "brilliant post." Reiterates that "Orig is most likely not a SK" and that "I think it is overall more likely that the claim is genuine than that Orig is mafia."
554, 557, 559: "2 mafia is a real possibility if we have a SK. Otherwise, it is most likely 3." Indicates that he thinks Originality's placement of Oman on the "almost definitely town" list is odd. States that even with a mafia lynch tonight, a misvig puts us into LYLO: "in short, your vigging is dangerous to us."
561: Suggests that Oman is wasting his "lurker" vote on Elias, who has posted a lack of availability.
565: Continues to explain to Originality why a vig on N2 would be a bad idea.
573: "Yes; there seems to be some agreement that he is very much more likely vig than SK and probably more likely vig than mafia (though he may well be mafia)." Gives credence to Lucienne's suggestion that there may be a Dybeck/Elias scum partnership. Posts numeric analyses that omit any possibility of Originality being the SK.
575: Replies to AlyG post. "I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If he is scum, then there is a SK (since I don't think Orig is SK) who would be crazy not to get rid of him. As such, lynching Orig today will only help that scum group. Dybeck is far more sensible a choice."
598: Big post here:
Dybeck:"if you're not going to lynch him, we may as well at least make sure that his kills are working for the good of the town." Vollkan: "It's pretty damn ironic that you are suspicious of him and think he is scum because he killed a very pro-town player, but now you WANT him to kill."
Indicates that Dybeck has actually made a good point: "The only problem here, though, is that all you have proved is that vig is a safe claim for scum. This doesn't prove that he is scum. Actually, given this logic, it kind of debunks the whole argument that Orig is not a SK." Also indicates that an Orig post has helped him realize that vig would be a safe claim for an SK.
"CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent. Thus, she was a threat to the scum. By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG.
It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot."
vollkan wrote:I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.
Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.
Gemelli looks very pro-town to me, as does shaft.ed.
I am a little concerned with the lurky players: Lucienne and Elias.
As such, I guess my suspicion falls back to the second person who has raised my eyebrows today: Oman.
607: Continues to suspect that orig is not an SK, but in fact a vig or mafia. "This makes me think he is unlikely to be mafia and, so, I am left thinking he is pro-town vig."
608: Switches tacks on Dybeck again: "he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon." Going back to the "anyone who wants to get rid of Orig is anti-town" premise. Also switches tacks on Orig action: "Secondly, I don't know whether we should be demanding that Orig does not NK. By telling him not to kill, we nullify the threat he presents to the mafia. I think it might be better if we allow Orig to kill, but request that he take much more thought. Thirdly, the matter of lynching Orig. If Orig is lynched, we can be certain that AlyG will be NKed. AlyG's power is very useful."
638: Again agrees with a shaft.ed post. Claims to have noted that CarrotCake wasn't really all that pro-town but that "I wanted to see how things played out given that the anti-Orig lobby was relying on it so crucially."
vollkan wrote:My view is as follows.
Town
shaft.ed -- 80% sure
AlyG -- claimed
Orig -- claimed
Vollkan
Unreadable
Elias_the_thief
Lucienne
Gemelli (As you say, though, slightly scummy. I think about 55% scummy)
Scummy
Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%
Votes for Dybeck. Again. Continues to support the premise that Orig is a pro-town vig.
639: Attacks dybeck again for posting that "If we mislynch today, we're down to 8. If mafia and SK both hit town tonight, it's 3 mafia, 2 town and 1 SK and we lose. If mafia hits SK and SK hits town, it's 3 mafia and 3 town and we lose." Vollkan: "The fact you are raising this falsity now as some fearsome spectre just reinforces my suspicion in you. You are doing all you can to push Orig's lynch in spite of the evidence against you."
642: Numbers. Again reiterates that he thinks orig is pro-town.
644:
vollkan wrote:The threat Orig presents to the mafia is incredible.
To make this as wcs as possible, I shall assume that Orig is SK and that we mislynch and that there are 3 mafia. Town lynch makes it 4:3:1.
Scum NK of town makes it 3:3:1.
Now, Orig could target maf or town. If town = 2:3:1 (mafia wins). If mafia = 3:2:1.
In the 3:2:1 situation, if we lynched mafia it becomes 3:1:1. As such, if Orig NKs the last mafia, they lose. As such, Orig presents the prospect of a loss to the mafia even if we mislynch.
646, 648: States that a 2-person mafia (rather than 3) is plausible, though unbalanced against the mafia, and that a 3-person mafia is more likely.
651: Replies to Oman's comment that "dybeck is starting to look town" by saying that "Dybeck's actions are also entirely consistent with him being a mafia hunting SK-Orig."
653: Prods Oman with a question about whether we should lynch originality.
656, 658: Argues against the "no kill" limitation on originality.
662: Lends credence to originality's explanation for why he killed CarrotCake. Supports idea of letting Originality NK. Rebuffs idea that Originality is an SK.
663: Continues to advocate giving originality NK decision. Indicates that most of his grounds for suspecting me at 55% was based on "Mostly your predecessor. And some of this stuff regarding Orig." Frames dybeck's actions as consistent with mafia.
665: More back-and-forth with me.
666: Suggests mini-scumdar list to guide Originality.
668: Argues that it's less likely that Originality is mafia, but not a given.
670: Suspects Gemelli/Dybeck partnership based on my rating Dybeck at 50% scum/town.
672: Argues that a 9:2:1 setup is difficult, but not broken. Suggests that Dybeck has just implied that Streeflo is incompetent.
675: Attacks (guess who?) Dybeck again, because "You were very actively hunting Orig as a SK. I don't believe Orig is SK. This was you hunting someone who could be a SK but is very likely vig and you are ignoring the actual hunting of mafia, other than your latest insinuations about shaft.ed and myself." Points out that a mislynch is not an auto-loss if Orig is mafia. Continues to support the vigOrig premise. And this exchange -- Dybeck: "I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die." Vollkan: "Your argument that he is lying has been refuted. I don't like your phrase 'have to die'."
678: "I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman."
680: Reiterates that "we haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution." And to AlyG: "Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one."
705: Responds to shaft.ed's alarm that vollkan has suggested doc protection for Orig: "I said I was not convinced and I needed to think. I didn't mean that I considered Orig an equal option to AlyG at all. I just meant that I was going to look at both options, rather than immediately ruling it out without doing a proper analysis. I can't think of any reason to protect Orig, after all I've been pushing hard on not lynching Orig for the crossfire thing as well." Posts his "Orig list":
vollkan wrote:1. No Kill
2. Dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias (though well below the others).
Increases HoS on Oman for putting AlyG on his Orig list. Continues to go after Dybeck: "Everything you are saying there has been refuted at some point, and you must know that."
Responds to my comment that Vollkan seems to have waffled in his opinion on CarrotCake and myself. "As for the difference regarding my opinion of you, Gemelli. It stemmed from my changed views regarding Orig and the situation with Dybeck and from me remembering to consider your predecessor's play. When I said I thought you were very pro-town, I was reading you in isolation." (So again: "anyone who wants to lynch orig is anti-town.")
Indicates that Oman's and Dybeck's lists are both scummy. "At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today."
712, 714, 718, 721, 723, 725, 727: Accuses Oman of backpedalling for replacing AlyG with Lucienne. Suggests a possible dybeck/oman partnership based on an Oman typo. Points out issues with Oman posts, specifically that Oman seems to be assuming AlyG tracker role despite him having put him on the Orig list. Votes Oman, and continues back-and-forth with him.
728, 730, 732, 734, 736: Unvotes, votes dybeck without explaining. Then claims that he had not thought things through sufficiently, thereby putting Oman lower than Dybeck on the scum list. More back-and-forth with Oman.
747: Responds to my question about why Lucienne is suspicious, saying that her behavior is "not vote-worthy," but a valid tell. Reiterates that he wants Orig's N2 action to be a "complete unknown:"
vollkan wrote:Hence, Orig should not approach this on a set mathematical basis, as in, selecting the most popular option. Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have complete freedom in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty.
Furthermore: "I think it might be an idea not to demand that Orig limit himself to them. Orig has complete control here and our list is only a guide. I suggest he follow the guide, but he is not bound by it if he thinks it is the best course of action otherwise."
751: Tells orig not to kill at random, but to use his judgement.
754-755: Reiterates that he does not want to confine orig to killing only a target on the town's top 4 list. "I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus." Suggests that dybeck's use of the word "lose" implies that he is somehow assuming that originality is town (??). Tells orig that there are "many justifiable methodologies" to use in deciding his night action.
760, 763, 766, 768: Continues to beat on dybeck for using the word "lose" instead of "die." Acknowledges that "this is not a killer point, despite how much I am having to write on it. It is a complicated semantic one."
770: Finally accepts dybeck's explanation for using that word: "You have now clarified this matter in full." Claims that despite orig's posting that he views dybeck as probable scum, he does not believe that it is a given that orig will kill dybeck. States that "I don't think Orig is mafia."
774: Explains originality's potential use of the town lynch list. "I don't mean this as a set of rules or anything."
779: Switches direction in response to (you guessed it) a shaft.ed post, and backs off on the need to give Orig "guidance" rather than firm direction. Replies to shaft.ed's comment stating that he could see dybeck's posts as possibly consistent with a frustrated townie: "I understand this point and I admit it is giving me a bit of frustration. I mean, I can see a townie adopting dybeck's stance, the problem is that it has been proven to be so wrong that I can't understand why he persists in pushing it. ... I guess the question is basically: Dybeck who is adamant and scummy, or Oman who is opportunistic and scummy? When I frame it that way, Oman does look worse."
785: Attacks Oman for stating that "the town is strong."
800: CarrotCake was "not clearly pro-town." "I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing."
802: Corrects typo.
811: Quotes shaft.ed's CarrotCake summary post as a response to dybeck's "has someone managed to find a single scummy thing carrotcake said yet?" Despite the fact that NOTHING in that post points to scumminess, only a limited contribution to the town.
813, 815: Follows up one of my questions by pressing Oman on why he has suspected Lucienne without providing clear explanation of why.
819: FoS's Lucienne based on providing miniscule content.
822: Thanks Lucienne for reminding him that I had rated Dybeck as 50% scummy earlier.
825: Suspects that dybeck's ignoring my posts are a scumbuddy tell.
827: I had posted that if I am confirmed town, I did not want people to automatically assume that dybeck is also town. "This really smacks of you just trying to assert that you are pro-town. Maybe you are pre-empting a mafDybeck lynch and are trying to distance yourself. The point is, I don't like it." (Vollkan examples of posting that he is town: 638, 705, 754) Suspects dybeck for not having a strong read on me yet. Replies to my concern that giving Orig permission to kill outside the consensus list is a mistake: "We need Orig to present the threat that he could kill any mafia tonight, that a mafia could be lynched tomorrow and that orig could NK a mafia on N3 in order to hold this against the mafia. Imagine if, for instance, the mafia are Lucienne, Gemelli and shaft.ed. In that case, there is no threat posed by Orig even if he is limited to No Kill, Dybeck, Oman and Elias."
838:
vollkan wrote:SK Orig has effectively already lost. He is guaranteed to be NKed over the next 2 nights unless the three mafia are eliminated today, tonight and tomorrow. In which case he loses anyway because we have majority. If he fails to have mafia killed at any of these, he will die and lose.
This is important because it basically means that SKOrig has no incentive to stick to consensus at all. If we mislynch today, he can just kill at random to mess things up since he can be sure of his death. If we lynch mafia today, he will need to kill mafia to have a hope. In other words, we really bear no control over SkOrig
841: Reiterates that vigOrig is the most likely scenario. Clarifies that he does not want orig to kill, but also does not want a blanket ban.
862: "Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig. I don't necessarily like keeping Orig alive today, but he has claimed and, if we lynched him and he came up vig, we would be truly kicking ourselves."
"I don't think Orig is a SK; a vig claim is just too suicidal."
Advances the possibility of mafia-Orig and SK-dybeck.
865:
vollkan wrote:His behaviour is undoubtedly anti-town; ignoring everything and blindly pursuing the lynch of a claimed vig. Additionally, we have his misrepresentations and hints of buddyness with Gem.
On the other hand, however, I have this niggling concern that dybeck's actions seem almost too blatantly stubborn to be mafia and that his actions make more sense as a SK.
I'm going to throw my concern out here and see what people think: Dybeck is clearly anti-town, but I wonder if a mafioso would be this desperate. I mean, fine, a mafia dybeck would want you dead, but would a mafia really be willing to take the stance that dybeck is, which seems like it will result in his own lynching? Things would probably make more sense if dybeck is SK and Orig is mafia. This would fit with the fact that dybeck seems convinced Orig is mafia. Dybeck SK NEEDS us to lynch mafia today in order to have a hope of winning.
871: Attacks dybeck for creating strawmen, when in fact dybeck's comment was accurate. Further goes to explain that if orig is Mafia, the SK will certainly kill him tonight. Claims that dybeck's leaving his vote on orig since post 404 means that he is "Desperately seeking the lynch of Orig who he thinks is mafia.... "
881: Replies to shaft.ed:
vollkan wrote:It's frustrating. Dybeck is clearly anti-town in his behaviour; I don't think we need debate that. And, yet, he is playing in such a blatantly anti-town manner that it just makes no sense to me at all. I mean, it could be a strategy in itself, but this gets tangled up in layers of messy WIFOM and I'd rather not go there.
Oman is playing like classic opportunistic scum. We've established that well and truly.
I guess the reason I am favouring dybeck is that his actions make no sense to me from a pro-town whereas I can imagine a townie acting like Oman, though his disapperance is a cause for concern. T
hat said, if Oman really was frustrated and wavering in his views, one would think he would be posting a lot more in an effort to sort things out. The fact that he has now vanished suggests more strongly that he may be scum.
887: Attacks dybeck's list.
893: Reiterates that "If Orig = SK, he effectively loses unless mafia is lynched today, in which case he still needs to NK a mafioso to have a hope of winning. If we mislynch today, Orig has effectively lost so he will likely just kill at random."
899: Describes originality's "why I can't be mafia" post as WIFOMish.
902: Reiterates that orig should not be autolynched if he kills someone outside the consensus list.
907-908: Analyzes the scenario of Orig being an SK. "It is true, therefore, that if Orig does not NK, he is almost certainly town. The thing I don't get though, dybeck, is that for all your insistence on lynching Orig, your main concern seems to be preventing him from NKing. You seem to be pushing for us to mandate no NK from dybeck when you should know full well that dybeck will only oblige with that if he is town "
921: Switches gears (prompted by shaft.ed post, cue expressions of shock): "I read your analysis and I think that you are correct here and that we have finally determined the best approach to make. We should be demanding that Orig does not commit a NK."
927: Despite what was posted in 921, does not think there is a really strong argument for a ban on orig NKing vs. him using a consensus approach.
937: Goes back to advocating no-NK.
953: Suspects originality posts, specifically the fact that he keeps reiterating that he is pro-town. Suspects that orig may be bussing Oman. "At the moment, I am happy with either dybeck or Oman. I will wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote."
957: Goes back after dybeck:
vollkan wrote:dybeck wrote:Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.
I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.
I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.
Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?
I just reread this and it chronically set off all sorts of bells for me.
1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.
2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.
3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.
4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.
5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?
Ironically, this attack is a response to a dybeck post that essentially mirrors Vollkan's suspicion in 953.
960, 961, 963: Comments on Gemelli's super-fabulous parsing tool.
972: Replies to my question on whether dybeck's post is really "chomping at the bit." Claims that he views any variation of "should I do the honors?" to be a scumtell. Defends Oman as lurking in a number of games, not just ours. Demands that dybeck point out another SK candidate if he views originality as mafia.
974: Attacks dybeck for claiming 100% certainty on orig guilt, and for not pursuing his lynch in spite of this feeling. This is "damned if you do, damned if you don't" logic. Dybeck has been scummy for pressing for originality's lynch, and now he is scummy for pressing for someone else's lynch.
976: Welcomes Elias back.
982: Continues to press dybeck.
993: Claims that he is not asking dybeck to name an SK because he necessarily thinks we have one. Only wants to gauge dybeck's response to the question. Responds to my FoS by saying "I never said that I was going to vote Oman if he did not post to my satisfaction; I simply said I was not going to change until he checked in." Literally true, but smacks of hair-splitting and deceptiveness. Also: "I know CC was not scummy and I think her suspicion in AlyG was very well-placed." Argues with Elias and dybeck on why originality's vig claim is plausible, rather than being the best claim option for a SK.
995: Backs off a bit, admits that Vig is a likely claim for an SK. Lists 10 points in favor of dybeck being scum.
999: Replies to dybeck's response to those 10 points. Claims that post 993 presents unrebutted evidence as to why orig can't be scum. Also claims that he is not defending orig, that he thinks orig is 65% likely to be scum.
1001: "Why Dybeck is Wrong Regarding Originality Being Obvious Scum" ... immediately followed by a disclaimer that orig is 65% scum
Concludes that based on Elias analysis, we should take a closer look at orig.
1008: Claims that much of suspicion vs dybeck is due to use of terms like "100%" and "positive." Goes on to say that "it is very rare that I will be definite on things, because I see certainty as something which no townie should have." This is demonstratably false. In this game, Vollkan has regularly posted opinions as though they were confirmed facts.
Responds to suspicions I'd raised. Responds to suspicions that shaft.ed raised. Strongly believes that one of the three players, Dybeck, Orig, and Oman, is scum.
1011: Replies to orig's post by increasing his scum assessment of orig to 75%.
1014: Admits that an earlier post of mine that vollkan had viewed as scummy "looks more valid" now.
1016, 1018, 1020: Renewed focus on originality
1025: Responds to Elias's analysis of his case against Dybeck: "And you know what... Unvote. There are a number of minor tells in there, but collectively and when analysed by someone other than myself (multiple scrutiny = very important) it is not decisive. I hadn't gotten the whole thing out and analysed before this, so it was a good exercise."
1033: Oman is now his top lynch candidate. Orig "could be newb scum or new vig and I cannot think of any way to differentiate. His responses to my interrogation were what I would have expected. The fact is, that he really seems to think it makes sense for him to distance himself. It could be pure BS coming from him, but his explanation is complete at the moment."
"If Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are." Suggests possible relationship between Elias and Lucienne.
1040: Disappointed at the prospect of replacing Oman, due to difficulty of getting a replacement.
1048: Replies to shaft.ed and dybeck posts.
1053: Detailed numerical analysis arguing that lynching originality would be bad for the town.
1067, 1070: Claims to have "crippled dybeck's case against originality" and wants him to reply.
1084: SK orig will probably not NK. "I just proved numerically that lynching Orig is a terrible idea."
1088: Replies to Korlash's initial suspicions of him. "If you read my posts #566 and #574, I argued that a vigging was very dangerous. In #560, I said I was definitely not up for the risk. In #558 I said his vigging was dangerous. And in #518 I agreed with shaft.ed's numerical argument against Orig vigging. That was just 6 posts after the first one you cite." <-- THIS IS FALSE. VOLLKAN HAS MADE MORE POSTS ADVOCATING US LETTING ORIG PICK HIS OWN NK TARGET THAN POSTS SUPPORTING NO-KILL. MANY OF THOSE POSTS WERE MADE AFTER THE POSTS HE LISTS ABOVE.
1090: Replies to dybeck's vote on Korlash by returning his vote to dybeck.
1098: Claims that posts along the lines of "Orig is to do as orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution" was a cryptic way of telling him not to NK, but keeping the uncertainty active. Accuses dybeck of parroting.
1107: Explains what "ad hominem" means. Attacks Korlash for "role claiming" (his words).
1109: Attacks Korlash's use of ellipses. Continues to state that Korlash has claimed.
1111, 1113, 1114: Continues to explain why he thinks Korlash's post constituted a roleclaim. "If you weren't, that's fine."
1117: Continues to attack Korlash over his "claiming vanilla was the best thing I could do" stance. "It seems Oman has been replaced by a village idiot."
1123: More fun back and forths with Korlash.
1124: Responds to my questioning why he continues to use the term "role claim" by saying that his post amounted to an obvious claim in his opinion. Claims that calling someone a village idiot is not ad hominem.
1126: Why claiming vanilla is damaging.
1128: Explains acronyms.
1139, 1147: Keeps pushing Korlash. Votes Korlash twice.
1149, 1151: Rebuffs Korlash's list of false claims that have been made against him.
1158: Responds to my opinion that only one of the posts Korlash made is in fact a "false claim." Acknowledges "overarguing" on points.
1166: Replaces his Korlash vote with an FoS. "Typically, there are only 3-member mafias in minis." Runs through analysis of three scenarios, but only touches on those where Orig is a vig or Orig is an SK.
1168: "Orig has been ordered not to NK, punishable by his own lynching. He won't NK."
1171, 1177, 1180: More dialogue with Korlash. Vote correction to mod.
1183, 1184, 1188: Reiterates that Korlash is scummy. Suspects that Korlash not wanting to put someone at L-1 suggests that he is worried about possible ramifications. Points out that if orig misvigs tonight, we lose. Votes dybeck, putting him at L-1.
1190-1191: Unvotes quickly. Claims that this was a trap to see how strongly Korlash felt about not wanting to leave someone at L-1. HoS on Korlash.
1193: Replies to dybeck's role claim. "All in all, I think it more likely that Orig is SK than mafia." Also suggests that Dybeck may be the SK.
1195: Replies to Korlash's questioning about the trap.
1208: Responds to shaft.ed post by changing gears. Shaft.ed doesn't buy the cop claim, and now Vollkan doesn't, either. Posts more questions for dybeck. Tells orig that he doesn't think dybeck is lying, asks orig to "truthfully claim now."
1211: Posts that he never said he was certain that dybeck is not lying. "Orig and Dybeck's claims are mutually exclusive, since insanity and vigmiller are both exceedingly unlikely. In other words, one of them is scum." "Tbh, I find it very hard to imagine a mafioso doing a dybeck and pushing so adamantly for the lynch of someone, to the point of drawing themself under such heat. It just is not sensible scumplay. At most, all dybeck needed to do would be to play normally and get a 4:3:1 mislynch, then NK Orig. At worst, the mafia get a 4:2. The risk assessment just doesn't weigh up." Thinks that Dybeck could, however, be an SK.
1214: "In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case."
1218: Question for Korlash and Elias
1226: "time for me to open the floodgates and go on the rabid offensive" Describes my posted opinion that either orig or dybeck is the right play today as "a major slip," and FoS's me. Once again: if you want to lynch orig, you must be scummy.
FoS's Korlash for basically the same thing.
FoS's Lucienne for chronically lurking and "her only content is plainly anti-town."
Replies to a shaft.ed post by switching gears (sigh). Now Dybeck is either mafia or cop, not an SK.
Suggests that Dybeck will be NK'd by the SK. (This seems to imply that the SK will see Dybeck as mafia, when in fact Vollkan has just painted a picture that he could be a cop. If the SK kills town, the SK loses, right?)
Votes Lucienne.
1228: Backs down on Elias ranking: "If I saw more of you, I would probably think you were pro-town." (???)
vollkan wrote:If you want percentages (0% = obv town, 100% = obv scum)
AlyG = 0%
shaft.ed = 20%
Elias = 55%
Gemelli = 60%}
Korlash = 65%} Not tied, but the above was more based on specific reactions to lynching Orig. On overall perception, Korlash is scummier.
Lucienne = 70%
dybeck = 75%
Orig = 100%
1230: "Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town."
1232: Jousting with Korlash
1236: "Gemelli, your number analysis is correct, but faulty because it fails to look at the motivation of the SK being his own survival and win:" Predicts that the SK will not night kill if the town mislynches. More numerical analysis of why lynching the SK is bad.
1240, 1242: Replies to Korlash's questioning why he voted for Lucienne. After a PBPA, decides that there is nothing inherently damning and unvotes.
1251: Responds to my suspicions of him that he has been changing direction increasingly and making posts that he then retracts. Claims that there was obvious anti-town content in her most recent post, and that voting someone and then unvoting on second thought is not harmful. Agrees with shaft.ed post. Once again, casts suspicion on dybeck. "I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash"
1254: Replies to post by Korlash. Starts tracking people's perspective on dybeck's claim. Criticizes dybeck for claiming cop.
1259: PBPA on Elias. Suspects that I am Elias's most likely scum partner, followed by dybeck.
1260: Replies to my responses.
1266: HoS's dybeck for posting something his answers to my question on whether everyone else agrees with Vollkan's arguments.
1268: "I am the one agreeing that Orig is most likely the SK; I don't dispute that. All the "evidence" is saying is that Orig is probably the SK. My numbers build upon that to point out that lynching him is not in our best interests."
==========================================
THEMES OF NOTE
What is originality's most likely role?
* 408: Orig is suspicious, but AlyG is more suspicious
* 439: Scenarios where orig=vig are both unlikely
* 446: vigOrig is "plausible," if not likely.
* 448-449: Orig is most likely mafia with AlyG
* 455: Orig is more likely mafia than SK
* 457: CarrotCake doesn't make sense as an SK kill
* 487: Orig vig claim seems genuine
* 496-497: Orig is most likely not the SK
* 501: Suspecting that orig is the SK is suspicious
* 506-508: Orig is most likely vig
* 549: Orig is most likely not an SK. Claim is most likely genuine
* 573: Analysis of possible scenarios omit any possibility of orig being an SK
* 575: "I don't think Orig is SK"
* 598: "CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent. Thus, she was a threat to the scum. By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG. It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot."
* 607: "This makes me think he is unlikely to be mafia and, so, I am left thinking he is pro-town vig."
* 638: Orig is most likely town
* 642: Orig is most likely town
* 651: Orig may be SK
* 662: Orig is probably not SK
* 668: Orig mafia is possible, but less likely
* 675: To dybeck: "You were very actively hunting Orig as a SK. I don't believe Orig is SK. This was you hunting someone who could be a SK but is very likely vig and you are ignoring the actual hunting of mafia"
* 800: CarrotCake was "not clearly pro-town."
* 838: If Orig is SK, he has effectively already lost
* 841: vigOrig is most likely situation
* 862: "Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig." Raises possibility of mafia-orig and SK-dybeck
* 893: "If Orig = SK, he effectively loses unless mafia is lynched today"
* 907-908: "if Orig does not NK, he is almost certainly town."
* 993: "I know CC was not scummy and I think her suspicion in AlyG was very well-placed."
* 999: Claims that post 993 offers unrebutted evidence of why originality can't be scum. That being said, believes that originality is 65% likely to be scum
* 1001: "Why Dybeck is Wrong Regarding Originality Being Obvious Scum" ... immediately followed by a disclaimer that orig is 65% scum
* 1011: Orig is now 75% scum
* 1208: Orig should "truthfully claim now"
* 1228: Orig is now 100% scum
* 1268: "I am the one agreeing that Orig is most likely the SK; I don't dispute that. All the 'evidence' is saying is that Orig is probably the SK."
What is the town's best course of action today?
* 392: The "we should not kill the SK" strategy is only valid if we know the SK's identity.
* 398-399: It doesn't really matter whether we go after the SK or mafia today.
* 439: Votes dybeck
* 457: "In short, our best bet is to lynch the SK. I feel confident AlyG is not the SK, her actions are either mafia or tracker."
* 462: AlyG should track originality. Votes originality
* 487: "Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440. I am now sure that this stance is anti-town,
but I myself held it just yesterday until I realised how stupid it is.
I have my eye on them, particularly Dybeck given all the previous stuff."
* 496-497: "My instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch"
* 492: We should not guide AlyG's actions tonight
* 501: Votes Oman
* 508: Votes Dybeck
* 512: Tells originality that "you should kill...just be careful"
* 517: "Don't kill tonight Orig."
* 526: Still favors a Dybeck lynch
* 544: Unvotes, still favors a dybeck lynch.
* 554, 557, 559: To orig: "in short, your vigging is dangerous to us."
* 565: A vig on N2 would be a bad idea
* 575: "I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If he is scum, then there is a SK (since I don't think Orig is SK) who would be crazy not to get rid of him. As such, lynching Orig today will only help that scum group. Dybeck is far more sensible a choice."
* 608: Anyone who wants to get rid of orig looks anti-town. "I think it might be better if we allow Orig to kill, but request that he take much more thought."
* 656, 658: Argues against the "no kill" limitation on originality.
* 662: We should let originality NK.
* 663, 666: Originality should be guided, but not restricted, by town consensus
* 680: "We haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution." And to AlyG: "Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one."
* 705: "I can't think of any reason to protect Orig" ... "At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today."
* 725: Votes Oman
* 728: Votes Dybeck
* 747: "Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have complete freedom in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty."
* 751: Same argument: Orig should not be bound by consensus
* 754-755: "I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus." Orig has "many justifiable methodologies" for selecting an action.
* 779: Firm direction for Orig would be better than vague guidance.
* 800: "I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing."
* 841: Does not want orig to kill, but does not want to ban him from killing.
* 865: "Dybeck SK NEEDS us to lynch mafia today in order to have a hope of winning."
* 902: Reiterates that orig should not be autolynched if he kills someone outside the consensus list.
* 921: "I read your analysis and I think that you are correct here and that we have finally determined the best approach to make. We should be demanding that Orig does not commit a NK."
* 927: Does not think there is a really strong argument for a ban on orig NKing vs. him using a consensus approach.
* 937: Once again, no-NK is the way to go
* 1053: Lynching originality would be bad for the town
* 1084: Ditto
* 1088: "If you read my posts #566 and #574, I argued that a vigging was very dangerous. In #560, I said I was definitely not up for the risk. In #558 I said his vigging was dangerous. And in #518 I agreed with shaft.ed's numerical argument against Orig vigging. That was just 6 posts after the first one you cite." <-- THIS IS FALSE. IN BETWEEN THOSE POSTS, VOLLKAN CONTINUED TO ADVOCATE FOR AN ORIG NK, AS DEMONSTRATED ABOVE
* 1098: Claims that his posts that included comments along the lines of "Orig is to do as orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution" were just a cryptic way of telling him not to NK, but keeping the uncertainty active.
* 1168: "Orig has been ordered not to NK, punishable by his own lynching. He won't NK."
* 1188: Votes dybeck to L-1
* 1190: Unvotes
* 1226: Anyone who wants to lynch originality is scummy by definition
* 1230: "Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town."
What is dybeck's most likely role, based on the evidence?
* 439: "Dybeck's willingness to follow AlyG is very smelly"
* 487: "Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440."
* 497: "my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.
* 501: "The fact that [dybeck] is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig."
* 544: "The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig."
* 598: "I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me."
* 608: "he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon."
* 651: "Dybeck's actions are also entirely consistent with him being a mafia hunting SK-Orig."
* 663: Dybeck's actions are consistent with mafia.
* 675: "Your argument that [originality] is lying has been refuted."
* 678: "I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman."
* 779: "I guess the question is basically: Dybeck who is adamant and scummy, or Oman who is opportunistic and scummy? When I frame it that way, Oman does look worse."
* 825: Dybeck may be mafia with Gemelli
* 862: Raises possibility of mafia-Orig and SK-dybeck
* 865: Dybeck is most likely mafia
* 1008: "The mind changing is something that bugs me for the simple reason that there was no need for him to change. He could have kept pushing Orig if he was so sure (as well as actually dealing with my arguments and rebuttal); there was no deadline. Instead, once Orig's NK is gone, he jumps over to Oman who he thought was the SK until fairly recently (remember, dybeck was adamant about not lynching the SK). "
* 1193: Dybeck may be the SK
* 1208: Doesn't think Dybeck is lying about his cop claim
* 1211: Dybeck's play doesn't make sense as mafia, but he could be an SK
* 1214: "In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case." (Compare and contrast with 1008)
* 1226: Dybeck may be cop, or may be mafia. Will likely be killed by the SK.
* 1251: Suspects Dybeck is mafia, lists possible buddies
What is the alignment of Dr. BS/Gemelli?
* 349: "Dr. Blackstrike: Newbish. I don't think is scum."
* 598: "Gemelli looks very pro-town to me"
* 638: Gemelli is 55% scummy
* 670: Gemelli may be mafia with Dybeck
* 678: "I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman."
* 705: "As for the difference regarding my opinion of you, Gemelli. It stemmed from my changed views regarding Orig and the situation with Dybeck and from me remembering to consider your predecessor's play. When I said I thought you were very pro-town, I was reading you in isolation."
* 865: There are hints of buddyness between Gemelli and Dybeck, even though Dybeck seems to be more likely a SK (???)
* 1033: "If Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are."
* 1228: Gemelli is 60% scummy
* 1230: "Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town."
* 1251: "I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash"
* 1259: PBPA on Elias. Suspects that I am Elias's most likely scum partner, followed by dybeck.
)
. Since the rest of the town seems to think I'm doing a pretty good job, I think chalking it up to the latter is reasonable, but I do have vollkan as scum on my back burner.
(Yeah, yeah, and you provided a better explanation. I'm just pissy today.)