Micro 624: Grey Flag Nightless (Game Over)

[RachMarie]

why such a big list there hoopla?

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

Rosske

(3): thenewearth, rb, GuiltyLion

Hoopla

(1): Franky

RachMarie

(1): karnos

Franky

(1): Hoopla

thenewearth

(1): Rosske

Not voting

(2): RachMarie, Javajoe24

With 9 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Still looking for a replacement for Franky…
Deadline is Tuesday 26 July at 21:40 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-07-26 21:40:00)

)

[RachMarie]

Still swamped with work stuffs will post more tomorrow, hopefully by then I will be done with the 10, 1 k articles I have to write for client.

[thenewearth]

I do not agree with hoopla

Not one bit

[rb]

Hoopla is like the only person in this game making sense.

The idea that we should lynch the only person making sense hurts my brain, someone please explain why Hoopla is a good lynch right now.

[rb]

Oh I think the lynch list should include Rosske and remove me but other than that I don't see a problem with it.

[rb]

I think the best lynches are GL/Rosske/Franky at this point.

I don't like Javajoe or TNE.

Just to clarify what I meant in 330 by not having a problem with the lynch list - I think it's the kind of list that Town Hoopla would come up with and this reads to me like someone trying to sort the game into something understandable, because Day 1 has been Chaotic. With 5 people in the list, obviously I can't agree with all of it, but I think that they're on the right track in that I believe there's likely multiple scum contained within those 5.

[Javajoe24]

The only problem I have with franky is that he has been inactive, but I have learned that more likely then not it is real life problems and they just need to be prodded/replaced.

[callforjudgement]

Infinity 324 replaces Franky.

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

Rosske

(3): thenewearth, rb, GuiltyLion

Hoopla

(1): Infinity 324

RachMarie

(1): karnos

Infinity 324

(1): Hoopla

thenewearth

(1): Rosske

Not voting

(2): RachMarie, Javajoe24

With 9 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Due to the replacement near deadline, deadline has been extended 48 hours.
Deadline is Thursday 28 July at 21:40 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-07-28 21:40:00)

)

[Infinity 324]

Hi guys, I read the game before I replaced in. Here's what I got:

rach - Pushes her scumread karnos with a lot of conviction, seems to be trying to figure the game out. Town.
hoopla - Doesn't seem to be very careful and I liked her entrance, but I don't really like how she has been on the sidelines. Null.
TNE - Doesn't care about what people think of her, not trying to look town. Town.
Rosske - seems to be pushing on the easy target TNE, while not doing much else. Null leaning scum.
rb - takes strong stances and not afraid to get into arguments. Town.
java - I like his analysis, but not a ton of original scumhunting here. Null.
GuiltyLion - Putting in a lot of effort to try and solve the game, picking on things that wouldn't make sense for scum to pick on. Strong town.
karnos - Takes strong stances and plays very differently from Mini 1800. Town

VOTE: rosske back to L-1

[Hoopla]

why such a big list there hoopla?

it's not a big list when i think the entire scumteam is within it.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: thenewearth

i think i'll help this wagon out while infinity gets into the game.

[Hoopla]

why such a big list there hoopla?

Also, you don't really get to question my list when you have no vote on anyone three days from deadline.

Same goes for javajoe. Time to start compromising.

[Infinity 324]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: hoopla

[Hoopla]

Hi guys, I read the game before I replaced in. Here's what I got:

rach - Pushes her scumread karnos with a lot of conviction, seems to be trying to figure the game out. Town.
hoopla - Doesn't seem to be very careful and I liked her entrance, but I don't really like how she has been on the sidelines. Null.
TNE - Doesn't care about what people think of her, not trying to look town. Town.
Rosske - seems to be pushing on the easy target TNE, while not doing much else. Null leaning scum.
rb - takes strong stances and not afraid to get into arguments. Town.
java - I like his analysis, but not a ton of original scumhunting here. Null.
GuiltyLion - Putting in a lot of effort to try and solve the game, picking on things that wouldn't make sense for scum to pick on. Strong town.
karnos - Takes strong stances and plays very differently from Mini 1800. Town

VOTE: rosske back to L-1

how do you have five town reads and only one scumread?

[Infinity 324]

idk what it is, I always seem to have a lot of townreads

I want you to explain your tne vote when I don't really see reasoning for it and you didn't comment on my townread on her

[Infinity 324]

Also, why not comment on the fact that my vote was clearly not a compromise when you just said it was time to compromise

[Hoopla]

idk what it is, I always seem to have a lot of townreads

I want you to explain your tne vote when I don't really see reasoning for it and you didn't comment on my townread on her

honestly, she's probably the most likely to be town on my cool-to-lynch list, but none of my other targets are really getting any traction. it seems like most people are still on the rosske train, but my reasoning for him being town is abstract, and i don't think many people share my opinions about what early wagons like that usually mean.

[Hoopla]

Also, why not comment on the fact that my vote was clearly not a compromise when you just said it was time to compromise

you voted after i made that declaration, so i assume you're being prickly just for the sake of being prickly.

[Infinity 324]

Hmm ok

I wanted to see your reaction and I'm not sure about it...

Your reasoning is interesting, but I'm not convinced the wagon isn't all-town/that scum wouldn't bus on an RVS wagon.

Do you think karnos is town for the same reasons?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: rosske

[Hoopla]

Your reasoning is interesting, but I'm not convinced the wagon isn't all-town/that scum wouldn't bus on an RVS wagon.

Do you think karnos is town for the same reasons?

I've been doing research into the frequency of early L-1 wagons hitting scum, and although I don't have enough data yet, it seems obvious to me that way more townies than random are being propelled into L-1/L-2 territory early. At the start of the game, pretty much any vote on any player in the game can be justified without any real scrutiny, so when a townie "slips up" or the town just want to wagon for the sake of wagoning, there are a silent group of players happy to jump on townie mistakes/wagons and less willing to do so on their buddies. The votes tend to clump on townies more often than on scum unless scum go out of their way to actively bus when they don't have to -- and yes, this can happen, but it's far less likely early when any other vote can be justified (and even less likely again for scum to put a partner on L-2 or L-1).

This tell is more salient the less information there is the game, as once the game develops, actual reads and cases can be made and occasionally town stumbles onto something meaningful that enough townies can get behind or that at least looks meaningful enough to scare scum into bussing.

Just look at this early wagon:

Rosske (4):

thenewearth, rb, GuiltyLion, karnos

It just seems so unlikely to me that Rosske is scum. If he was scum, then I'd expect all these people to be town or at best, one scum here. So lets see who works as scum in a hypothetical Rosske-scum universe:

I don't think karnos puts his scumpartner to L-1 (especially without announcing it). Guiltylion and thenewearth share a chain of posts promoting everyone to vote Rosske when he's already on L-2. His wagon sat on L-1 for a while with nobody flinching -- rb had a long interrogation of karnos about derphammers and could have easily have found his way off the wagon if he was bussing Rosske early.

In my mind, if Rosske is scum, rb is the only viable candidate for a bussing partner OR somehow all those four are town. Occam's Razor suggests it's far more likely that Rosske is town -- there are just so many other possible combinations of alignments on that wagon if you have Rosske as town. For the most part, everyone was happy just chilling on the L-1 wagon and not showing any signs of wavering or even bothering to mention him being on L-1. It took Rach to mention that later. To me that implies Rosske is town and scum are just golden with what's happening.

On the off chance of Rosske being scum, you (Franky/Infinity) actually looks the most likely scum, who barely mentioned the Rosske wagon when it was going on but was throwing suspicion elsewhere. That's a classic chainsaw defense and seems incredibly scummy if Rosske is scum.

TO ANYONE ON THE ROSSKE WAGON WHO AGREES WITH THAT LOGIC: how about a friendly compromise and lynching Franky/Infinity, the obv-partner of hypothetical Rosske-scum?

~~

I just realised I wrote that entire post without actually directly answering your question. I think karnos has a better chance of being scum than Rosske because he legitimately did something that could be construed as scummy (though I personally think it's more null). It takes an element of luck to get a big enough group of townies correctly thinking the same thing is scummy -- and his L-1 vote is a more likely catalyst for this than whatever randomness triggered the wagon on Rosske.

I still think the karnos wagon was too easy, and in a game with a higher ratio of scum than usual, I think that tell is meaningful.

[Hoopla]

thenewearth, guiltylion, rb:

I want you to read that post and tell me who Rosske's likely partners are if he's scum. Do you think it's likely this wagon was somehow all town? If not, who's bussing? Who's scum off the wagon? Do you agree with me that Franky/Infinity is the most likely scum off the wagon?

[rb]

Okay, I'm not really following you.

- you think Rosske is most likely town
- you think if Rosske is scum, then Franky/Infinity is most likely scum

Therefore, vote Infinity because he's likely scum. But...I thought that he was scum if Rosske was scum, not if Rosske was town and you think Rosske is town. But I think I'm just missing something in translation here because I tend to agree that if Rosske flips scum I'd say his scumpartners are people who didn't vote him.

But why would you vote someone else based on scum-collusion where we assume Rosske is scum, if you think Rosske is town? I'm not a fan of trying to find scum via picking the scum-team so early in the game either. When there's a particular flip then you can start picking likely combinations but we don't have a flip. Also, Infinity's practically tripled the activity of that slot so I don't like him as a lynch anymore.

[rb]

Tbh I'm starting to wonder why you want to lynch TNE if you think Rosske is town because I find it hard to believe that TNE is TNE scum vs. Rosske town interaction. It's either Rosske scum or Town vs. Town. Imo if Rosske flips town it's super unlikely she's scum, and there's probably scum off-wagon and/or in GL + Karnos.

Also with the thing you said about doubting Karnos would put his scumbuddy at L-1, remember that Karnos has been saying all game that he's just never seen someone derphammer, unless it's scum. If that's true, I think it's perfectly fine to assume it's scum on scum because Karnos would have confidence that no one's going to derphammer it - because the wagon is scum and they're not going to derphammer their own players.

ALSO: Karnos said, "if anyone derphammers we've found scum" and he talks about policy lynching whoever does it. This is why I scumread him before but his reaction was good. Tbh I'm just gonna say I'm fine with a Rosske/GL/Karnos lynch because either one will give us a lot of information and I'm pretty sure there's scum in there somewhere.

[Hoopla]

Infinity's slot makes sense as scum from either flip hence why I'm trying to rally a lynch there. Looking at potential partners in a game this small is absolutely viable, because it can help you realise that the person to be lynched makes more sense as town.

The voters off the original Rosske wagon are me, rach, javajoe, franky. So who's the two scum there? If you believe Rosske to be bussed, by who?

Edit: phone posting at the moment so I'm slow. There's no way rosske/karnos is viable.