I don't like Ox40 tunnelling on people who I thought at that point were town, but I'd be more than happy if they were to tunnel on my scumread. I'm strong in how I approach my case about my scumread, I push hard and apparently I'm unco-operative with town? I hardly agree.
But the reasoning behind the quote is such a bad misrepresentation. The point was that Cobalt had no conviction in his vote, and worried that he'd be accused of scumhood for allowing a quickhammer to happen (townpoints for IV for this btw) quickly backtracked to look like he'd valiantly tried to save the day. That they settled on the same rule that I did is a moot point, I was simply recalling the events for people. (You know, that whole co-operating with town thing).
That is such a forced vote and the fact that you give yourself a disclaimer at the start of that 'this isn't a scum list' reeks.
Genuinely considering changing my vote.
That post was made with reference to my previous analysis of you, my #457, which you said that you would read if you have the time. I can understand your perspective, but only if you've read my previous post and not my #457 as well. Deal with the wall of text, you lazy bum.
In post 494, reso wrote:Also..... could you explain to me how exactly you are putting on a quantitative quality on how certain you are that someone is going to turn up scum or town? Because that is incredibly beyond me.
It's simple. I know that I'm town, and there are 8 other players, which means that from my point of view, there has to be 2 scum among those 8 players.
Probability of any of those players being scum = 8 / 2 = 0.25, or 25%. When someone does something scummy/towny, it increases the probability of that person being scum/town by an amount based mostly on statistics and educated guesses, and slightly decreases everyone else's probability of being scum/town because that's how math and probability works. I think giving actual numbers, even if they are far from perfectly accurate, is much better than being needlessly vague with wording like "likely scum," "very likely scum," or "somewhat likely scum." For example, when Marverick1102 said that he'd be surprised if PhantomCobalt flipped town, does that mean he thinks it's about 20% likely he'll flip town, or 1% likely he'll flip town? His wording could easily be stretched to mean either, but one of those numbers is twenty times larger than the other.
In post 446, 0x40 wrote:Alright, I'm gonna hammer PhantomCobalt unless there are any objections. Also, before I do, I would like to hear from everyone what they think the percentage probability of PhantomCobalt flipping scum after being lynched.
As for me, I'm about 40% sure he'll flip scum.
From where exactly do you pull the number 40% then?
By your own logic, just because 9/11 either was or was not an inside job, it's a 50/50 chance that it was/wasn't. Can't you see how ridiculous that is? The probability of someone being scum in a group of 8 players where 2 are scum is 2/8, 0.25, or 25%. This is basic math.
In post 526, reso wrote:
From where exactly do you pull the number 40% then?
25%: the probability of him being scum at the start of the game.
~40%: the probability of him being scum after taking into account my reads on everyone.
By your own logic, just because 9/11 either was or was not an inside job, it's a 50/50 chance that it was/wasn't. Can't you see how ridiculous that is? The probability of someone being scum in a group of 8 players where 2 are scum is 2/8, 0.25, or 25%. This is basic math.
It's even more illogical by yours. There are lesser "inside" people than "outside people, so the chance that 9/11 was an inside job is "inside"/"outside"=>50%
Let's say you have 100 marbles in a bag, 99 red, and 1 blue. There are two possibilities, a red or a blue. However, if you reach into the bag and grab one out, it's 99 out of 100 times red.
It's pretty close to the end of Day 1, and I know I initially brought it up, BUT ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUSLY GOING TO SPEND TIME TALKING ABOUT THE SEMANTICS OF NUMBER PERCENTAGES AND THE FEELING OF USING WORDS???
In post 533, reso wrote:It's pretty close to the end of Day 1, and I know I initially brought it up, BUT ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUSLY GOING TO SPEND TIME TALKING ABOUT THE SEMANTICS OF NUMBER PERCENTAGES AND THE FEELING OF USING WORDS???
I don't think we should, but it does feel like a school debate, and debates are interesting.
In post 533, reso wrote:It's pretty close to the end of Day 1, and I know I initially brought it up, BUT ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUSLY GOING TO SPEND TIME TALKING ABOUT THE SEMANTICS OF NUMBER PERCENTAGES AND THE FEELING OF USING WORDS???
I don't think we should, but it does feel like a school debate, and debates are interesting.
Let's say you have 100 marbles in a bag, 99 red, and 1 blue. There are two possibilities, a red or a blue. However, if you reach into the bag and grab one out, it's 99 out of 100 times red.
That's exactly what I've been saying. If you put 8 players in a bag, 2 of them are scum, then pull one out of the bag to lynch them, the probability of them flipping scum is 25%, not 50%.
In post 533, reso wrote:It's pretty close to the end of Day 1, and I know I initially brought it up, BUT ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUSLY GOING TO SPEND TIME TALKING ABOUT THE SEMANTICS OF NUMBER PERCENTAGES AND THE FEELING OF USING WORDS???
I don't think we should, but it does feel like a school debate, and debates are interesting.
Let's say you have 100 marbles in a bag, 99 red, and 1 blue. There are two possibilities, a red or a blue. However, if you reach into the bag and grab one out, it's 99 out of 100 times red.
That's exactly what I've been saying. If you put 8 players in a bag, 2 of them are scum, then pull one out of the bag to lynch them, the probability of them flipping scum is 25%, not 50%.
Well, thanks for the example. It can be quite hard to understand that without an example that isn't easy to understand. However, this is where my mind keeps breaking down.
50% is if you're looking at the person individually.
25% is if you're looking at everyone else as a whole.
Let's say you have 100 marbles in a bag, 99 red, and 1 blue. There are two possibilities, a red or a blue. However, if you reach into the bag and grab one out, it's 99 out of 100 times red.
That's exactly what I've been saying. If you put 8 players in a bag, 2 of them are scum, then pull one out of the bag to lynch them, the probability of them flipping scum is 25%, not 50%.
Well, thanks for the example. It can be quite hard to understand that without an example that isn't easy to understand. However, this is where my mind keeps breaking down.
50% is if you're looking at the person individually.
25% is if you're looking at everyone else as a whole.
In post 538, RyanK wrote:Well, thanks for the example. It can be quite hard to understand that without an example that isn't easy to understand. However, this is where my mind keeps breaking down.
50% is
if you're looking at the person individually.
25% is if you're looking at everyone else as a whole.
So, which one should it be???
Can you elaborate what you mean by the bolded part?
In post 538, RyanK wrote:Well, thanks for the example. It can be quite hard to understand that without an example that isn't easy to understand. However, this is where my mind keeps breaking down.
50% is
if you're looking at the person individually.
25% is if you're looking at everyone else as a whole.
So, which one should it be???
Can you elaborate what you mean by the bolded part?
It means only concentrating on that person without concentrating anywhere else.
About the ratios, let me think about it offline, like while I go to sleep and after I wake up, I need some mental refreshment. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.
In post 525, PhantomCobalt wrote:I don't know why we're arguing about this. People voting someone believe that there's a 50 < chance that they're scum, unless they're scum.
Right, now you're here.
Talk to me about the following please. Give me the impression you have on them.
