Mini Normal 1809: Game Over

[Elyse]

I'm not trying to be high and mighty. But there were obvious signs that he was lying (refusing to explain if he still had a shot left, awkwardness surrounding the claim, avoidance of the thread) and it seemed to me like you gave him too much leeway and only switched when there was no other option.

You were also willing to lynch Egg, then Grendel, then finally Masq and now you switch to BlankFace and me without skipping a beat while leaving Sera and kts as options as well. The only person you haven't suspected of the living players is BB, who you buddied early on by giving him a townread that kept him from possibly being lynched.

I just don't see this as town Hoopla.

[Hoopla]

Nothing is a slam dunk in this game, so if we could make a play that gave him a chance to confirm himself as town at night, why would we not take it on the chance he was truthful?

The only person you haven't suspected of the living players is BB, who you buddied early on by giving him a townread that kept him from possibly being lynched.

That should be a point in my favour if BBmolla is town.

[Egg]

I'll make a real post tomorrow

[Elyse]

Nothing is a slam dunk in this game, so if we could make a play that gave him a chance to confirm himself as town at night, why would we not take it on the chance he was truthful?

The only person you haven't suspected of the living players is BB, who you buddied early on by giving him a townread that kept him from possibly being lynched.

That should be a point in my favour if BBmolla is town.

Because it could be more harmful than good.

Having one pocket townread for the entire game and suspecting the rest of the player list is a classic scum move. It's not a point in your favor at all, considering you channeled the D1 lynch to 1 maybe 2 townies anyway.

[Egg]

Actually, I've got time now.

Hoopla,
1) Grendel was never being lynched. Any decent scum would have bussed Masq before even considering voting Grendel.
2) You mentioned yesterday that the way Vedith vs Blank played out made Blank more likely town. What changed to outweigh that? You didn't really spend any time discussing Blank in the post where you vote him except to say that he makes sense as scum with Elyse and is a better lynch than Elyse for being off the wagon.
3) Not that I'm scumreadin BBMolla, but I disagree when you don't seem to think scum would claim getting neighborized so quickly. Scum love opportunities to "confirm" themselves. The possibly incriminating question to the mod out in the open is pretty town though.
4) You wanted to let Masq live before Grendel claimed and the fact that you're now pretending that didn't happen by calling it "fiction" and referring to a different part of the day isn't making me feel any better about that. (More reading shows me that Elyse touched on this)

1200 is good posting.

[BBmolla]

VOTE: Blankface

[BlankFace]

Nothing is a slam dunk in this game, so if we could make a play that gave him a chance to confirm himself as town at night, why would we not take it on the chance he was truthful?

The only person you haven't suspected of the living players is BB, who you buddied early on by giving him a townread that kept him from possibly being lynched.

That should be a point in my favour if BBmolla is town.

How would that be a point in your favor in the slightest? Scum!Hoopla would know BBs alignment. That's not a point in your favor.


Reads coming in the morning.

[Dierfire]

VOTE COUNT 3.03

Hoopla (3): Elyse, Grendel, Egg
BlankFace (3): Seraphim, Hoopla, BBmolla
Elyse (1): Killthestory

No Vote (1): BlankFace

With 8 players living, a lynch requires 5/8 votes.

TIMER

(expired on 2016-08-04 08:00:00)

NOTES

Elyse V/LA until 2 August

[Egg]

V/LA until Sunday night

[Grendel]

All right, here I goooo---

Spoiler:

In hindsight, I regret not including Masquerade on this list too, but to achieve any meaningful information-yielding wagons, choosing more than two usually doesn't work as well. I maintain he seemed less suspected overall at that point in time, though, and the fact that nobody really hustled at all to include Masquerade in the wagon battle despite me ignoring him actually seems like a legitimately good reason for Masquerade being scum,

even if it implicates me in the process.

Much earlier in D2, but this looks a lot like lamp shading to me. Acknowledging a Mask lynch would implicate Hoopla is scum, doesn't make her un-implicated.

Spoiler:

MASQUERADE, YOU NEED TO CLAIM WHO YOUR KILL CHOICE WAS RIGHT NOW

if you still have your kill, it's absolutely essentially you shoot someone tonight to put us back in odd-numbers tomorrow so we don't have to no-lynch.

this better be a true claim.

UNVOTE:

for now.

please hurry up masquerade.

These three posts in succession look bad. Hoopla was very quick to back off of Mask when she didn't have any reason to. He still hadn't claimed if he had a shot left, or who his target was, or anything really aside from a one-shot vigilante. He even balked at BBmolla's questioning him earlier, which should have been a red flag. Way too quick an acceptance of Mask's cliams imo. She didn't even wait for a response before unvoting, and I'm pretty sure Mask wasn't a L-1 anymore.

Spoiler:

Grendel, if Masquerade is a vig and still has a shot, this is a CONFIRMABLE role with a second kill tonight. Scum probably won't have a roleblocker this game, as a blocking role has already flipped town, so we absolutely should see another kill tonight if Masq is truthful. If no extra kill happens tonight, sure, we lynch him tomorrow (or if he claims he shot last night, we can lynch him today).

Masquerade is a pointless lynch today, when it's highly likely we'll know his alignment tomorrow.

Very quick to accept Mask’s claim, or at the very least, that it was provable even though Mask never revealed if he actually used his shot or not. It doesn’t match her push earlier when she was chasing Mask down. I think that as town she would have expressed more skepticism instead of just accepting that Mask could prove his claim overnight. Especially concerning is how reluctant Mask was about revealing information. Like I said,

he never actually claimed he had a shot left.

Hoopla just assumed he did or something. Really weird interactions.

Spoiler:

Wouldn't scum have a role blocker since town had a jailkeeper? Maybe I'm used to different setups, but having a jail keeper makes mafia role blocker a confirmed role in the game right?

Assuming Mask is a vig, and scum has a role blocker then Mask is not confirmable.

I'm still inclined to think he is scum anyways tho.

Because having two blocking roles in one setup opens the door to paradoxes and messier night interactions, as such, mods tend to avoid doing it. I just did a quick scan of 13p Mini Normals with Jailkeepers. There were 30 games with a town jailkeeper and only four of those had scum RB's too, so I think it's highly likely that Masq will get a shot off tonight if he indeed has one.

If you think he is scum, fine, but lets lynch him tomorrow after he's had a chance to confirm himself tonight. Massclaim tomorrow might also narrow the game down enough to be able to tell whether his claim fits in the possible setup.

Also, another possibility I haven't considered yet is a Rolestopper for either town or mafia. And given it looks like our mod is open to funky sort of roles like a Weak Neighbouriser, I think a Rolestopper is a decent chance of existing in this game -- perhaps not as likely as a Roleblocker, but definitely something we should be considering.

This would allow one mafia to be immune to a vig kill tonight if there is a Mafia Rolestopper. It also implies that Elyse was rolestopped on N1, which isn't a bad choice if there is a Town Rolestopper, but paints her as scummy if there is a Mafia Rolestopper.

Talked me out of the existence of there being a role blocker. Then once there was evidence of a role blocker introduced (via Cmitc1’s cliam) Hoopla interjected with the idea that there could be a role stopper. Then she uses the possibility of a role stopper to work up a scum read on Elyse. When it was most likely that Cmitc1 was just role blocked. Looking back, his desire to know about mass claiming could have made the mafia suspect him to be a PR of some sort. So role blocking Cmitc1 makes more sense. Also since I was unable to perform a night kill last night my guess is that there is a role blocker, not a role stopper.

Spoiler:

Analysing which vig claim is real:

For the most part it's unusual for scum to fakeclaim vig, as this really only buys you one more night before you get lynched -- that's all this claim does. So, who is more likely to want that extra phase of being alive? Masquerade was under pressure at L-1 and forced to claim -- this claim is great to allow you to survive one more day, as towns will naturally want to test the claim and will back down. If Grendel is scum, what motivation does he have to counterclaim vig after just two votes on him now? He had a chance of being lynched today, but it was nowhere near a certainty even without claiming.

Grendel is either a vig, or he's making a strange counterclaim, when something like Cop or any other investigation role will work just as well (if not better). Occam's razor: I think Grendel has to be truthful here, as he was under less immediate pressure on his claim, as such, he has less incentive as scum to paint himself into a corner with his claim. Masquerade was already in a corner, so a vig fakeclaim makes more sense from him.

Now that I reason this out, I'm actually pretty confident of Masq-scum/Grendel-town, and really don't think Grendel does this as scum in this situation very often at all. I'd even suggest both vigs being true is more likely than Grendel being scum here.

I do think that Hoopla’s vigilante analysis posts about which claim was real were well thought out, and correct. Yet, I really do not see this as a reason to town read her. I think she would make these posts as ethier alignment. As town, Hoopla would be trying to slove the game, -OB-. But, I think she would do it as scum too because at this point in the game

she would have realized that not bussing Mask would be a death sentence for her on D3

once I flipped D2. So I don’t see these posts as alinment indicative, and seeing that Hoopla is trying to make herself look more townie by falling back on these posts. Idk that bothered me.

Spoiler:

should we discuss targets?

Now that I think about it, since we're lynching a vig claim today, I think you should be targeting a pool of three townies regardless.

- If the lynch today is a Mafia RB, then the other vig claim must be true and can shoot tonight. If this happens, we don't want three deaths at night, so you should try and choose a townie.

- If the lynch today is a different type of Mafia, then the other vig claim must be true, however scum may still be able to interfere with our night actions, so you shouldn't have just one target, as mafia will have too much flexibility in their night choices. Again, you should pick from a pool of three town players.

- If the lynch today is a town vig, well, we chose wrong and you are probably dying tonight. For the sake of simplicity you should just pick three town players today.

~~

So, who are your top three town reads?

While by itself this seemed like a good idea, and it would have been if Cmitc1 had lived, I really didn’t like how Hoopla immediately started heaping doubt onto BBmolla at the start of the day. It would be very easy for scum to kill Cmitc off in the night then once the day started quickly snuff out the possibility that we have another conftown in whoever Cmitc1 targeted last night. Claiming that Cmitc1 died because he targeted scum when there were no other night kills to back this up seems just like what I would expect scum to do. Is there a possibility that Cmitc1 targeted scum, AND was the mafia’s factional kill? Sure, but I’m not open to entertaining that possibility right now.

[Grendel]

Blankface's lack of activity is making me more sure of Him, and Hoopla being scumbuddies. Him not doing anything while on the chopping block today looks like conflicted scum. Like he intended to let Hoopla hard bus him today, and now that Hoopla is getting heavy fire he is unsure weather to bus her, or just keep lurking.

Seriously, he only has two posts to his name so far today!

Nothing is a slam dunk in this game, so if we could make a play that gave him a chance to confirm himself as town at night, why would we not take it on the chance he was truthful?

The only person you haven't suspected of the living players is BB, who you buddied early on by giving him a townread that kept him from possibly being lynched.

That should be a point in my favour if BBmolla is town.

How would that be a point in your favor in the slightest? Scum!Hoopla would know BBs alignment. That's not a point in your favor.

Reads coming in the morning.

Look at this half hearted distancing.

@Blank, What makes you town exactly?

[Grendel]

hey guys i feel like voting elyse

VOTE: elyse

Why not Hoopla, or Blank?

Or rather, why do you think they are town, or whatever?

[Grendel]

I think we should lynch Kill personally regardless of that

I wouldn't be opposed, but you saw how my efforts went D1, and D2.

or egg

idk

I'm like, ninety something percent sure that Egg is town.

Also, Do you think Hoopla is bussing Blank? I kind of think so, but would like second opinion to be sure.

[Dierfire]

VOTE COUNT 3.04

Hoopla (3): Elyse, Grendel, Egg
BlankFace (3): Seraphim, Hoopla, BBmolla
Elyse (1): Killthestory

No Vote (1): BlankFace

With 8 players living, a lynch requires 5/8 votes.

TIMER

(expired on 2016-08-04 08:00:00)

NOTES

Elyse V/LA until 2 August
Egg V/LA until 31 July
Prodding Seraphim, Killthestory, Hoopla, and BBmolla

[Killthestory]

i am of prod

[Grendel]

I am bored.

Where is everybody?

[Elyse]

Waiting for BlankFace and kts to choose Hoopla/BF.

Well mostly for BF to post and kts to decide

[Killthestory]

ill hammer whoever i can

[BBmolla]

post

[Grendel]

ill hammer whoever i can

So the first person put to L-1 then?

[Killthestory]

yes

[Grendel]

Okay Kill. Very engaging conversation we are having. So you do not think Hoopla, or Blank are town then?

@BBmolla, answer this pls-

Also, Do you think Hoopla is bussing Blank? I think so, but would like second opinion to be sure.

[BBmolla]

possible. I think Hoopla is pretty town, but I pretty much always do. She just always seems so on point

[BBmolla]

I think one or the other is scum, I don't see a plausible scumteam without one of them?

[BBmolla]

why isn't blank voting?