Mini Normal 1809: Game Over

[MathBlade]

Wingback BBMolla Grendel all town reads so far.

Looking at either Hoopla/Elyse world
Or
Egg/KTS world.

Much more likely the first.

[MathBlade]

Haven't even looked at a single Masq post, but this wagon looks incredibly scum driven.

Hoopla could be bussing

With masquerade flipping scum this interaction looks hella suspicious.
This is one of the main reasons why I suspect a potential Egg/KTS world here.
If KTS genuinely thought the wagon was scum driven why aren't they voting Hoopla now?
Is it because they know Hoopla is town and Egg was picked to be on it?

Going to read KTS's later posts and see if that is explained.

[MathBlade]

Ewww KTS's posts today are ugly. Especially calling Hoopla town after calling the Masq wagon scum drive. But then calls Hoopla town as Hoopla was a driving force of the wagon.

So Hoopla/Elyse OR Egg/KTS.

Leaning towards Hoopla/Elyse.

[Hoopla]

After reading that last game I was in with Elyse where she towntunneled in on me hard in a way that mirrors this game, I am starting to believe she might actually be town.

I now think Egg is the best lynch, and his partner is probably Blank/Math or KTS.

[Hoopla]

Anyone know if Elyse tunnels as scum?

Elyse: I'd be happy for some self-meta from you if you're down.

[MathBlade]

This is horribad. No unique reads and sheepers mine while calling me scum.

She needs rope badly.

[MathBlade]

sheeps*

[Hoopla]

I'm sheeping Wingback for the most part.

[Egg]

Wing:
1) Oh, ok that's fair. I looked at where you linked when you said it originally. But yeah, Hoopla not including Masq in vedith vs blank was pretty sketchy and I didpoint that out. You're definitely right about that.

2) ok, other than the fact that you're ignoring my entire point on this one... sometimes cops like to try to get the person lynched without claiming so they can get at least one more investigation in, especially early in the game. If I could be sure grendel was doing that, I could have sheeped and tried to help. So of course it's important to figure that out. It's tough because I needed to be subtle and get the message accross to grendel at the same time, but my posts clearly show that that's what I was doing and there is no point for scum who knows cmit to be town to do that. If you really think it was just to show lack of knowledge on cmit's alignment, then you're saying I committed hard to it and then let it just go away all the way until now. That makes no sense.

3) I disagree. Masq was nervous about scum meta and was hiding it. Even newb town should be open about their scum meta so they can be like "see, i'm completely different now"

4) my attitude towards mafia in general is null. I'll get around to the links. I have a shit ton going on both on site and in real life. highlights include clash of the mash and fantasy football on site and 16 hour work days and my daughter being born any day now in real life. to be perfectly honest, your links are low priority and I know you can find them yourself because you meta'd me extensively already. just look for games where I was suspected by multiple people in the last, let's say four years.

Mathblade, do you honestly believe Elyse is bussing Hoopla with one scum already dead? If she is, she even had opportunity to back off when I hesitated at Hoopla's VT claim.

[MathBlade]

Sure do! I practically own stock in greyhound with how much I bus as scum. A good bus is one that is ineffective and weak and entirely unconvincing yet believable. It is also effective when it is perceived you don't have to bus. Wingback can attest to this in 1800 but I bussed Karnos with practically every post I wrote.

The only time I found Hoopla and Elyse going at each other is during that fight. I think that fight was setup for a bus. They didn't really have Hoopla as a scumread far as I can tell. I also find the majority of the posts here completely devoid of any "hootspah".

However if Hoopla is town then Elyse is probably town. A post like 1200 I don't see happening unless Elyse and Hoopla are of the same alignment. Elsye notes the scumminess of Hoopla's vote hopping to seemingly avoid Masq. If they were differing alignments then I would have expected this to happen during the Masq lynch. Therefore either Elyse and Hoopla are scum together or Elyse is confbiasing and looking for more to be convincing.

I don't see a world where Hoopla scum and Elyse town because then Hoopla would have countered saying he wasn't being scummy when Elyse brought up the point in 1200.

I think 1200 is pretty damning for Hoopla and Elyse.

[MathBlade]

Back late tonight.

[MathBlade]

Hoopla's actions just don't jive with me.

First, she changes her vote from Vedith to BlankFace to "switch up the wagons":

i genuinely don't know what is going on now.

i am mostly waiting for the non-contributors to contribute and over-contributors to stop.

lets switch up the vedith/blankface wagons:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: blankface

The Vedith wagon stalled at this point so changing it up makes sense to see how the momentum of a BlankFace wagon will go.

Do you think Vedith is town now?

he's still in my small pool of lynch targets, but his wagon has stalled recently, so i'm seeing if a blankface wagon will create some new buzz.

ideally i'd like a blankface/vedith wagon battle today.

Here she hypes up a Vedith vs BlankFace duel to the death.

Then, she hastily narrows down the choices to Vedith or BlankFace:

House, Rob, Molla aren't being lynched today. There simply isn't enough support. If there had been, we definitely would have seen it after these last few days.

Vedith and Blankface are good choices that most people seem open to.

This is fine. I thought BB was a good wagon (still think he's scum) but Hoopla didn't feel that way and there's no issue with her channeling the votes toward wagons she likes.

this is essentially a matter of wifom at the moment, but i believe vedith would have fake-claimed a PR as scum here. he seems very much like a VT giving up to me - scum usually aren't so chill with their own demise.

i know towns don't have a tendency to let VT claims live, but it's exceedingly rare for scum to claim VT upon being the first wagon forced to claim. does anyone else share these sentiments?

I found this a very strange reason to townread Vedith. It's weak, and she barely pushes it. For someone who championed either Vedith or BlankFace all day, her townread on Vedith should have made her go full steam ahead on BlankFace. It seemed to me like she wanted the Vedith lynch to still go through but didn't want to be associated with it.

The remainder of her posts on D1 are not urgent at all...the only thing she really does is tell cmit to make a choice, which is obvious for anyone to do at this point.

I think this post:

It's hard to tell how meaningful Vedith eclipsing Blankface's wagon is. My gut instinct is Blank is town too. There was a lot of movement and stalling between the two wagons, to the point where it seemed like scum didn't care which one died, which implies Blank is town. I think if he were scum, we'd have seen less of a challenge on Blank's wagon and Vedith's wagon would have been piled on more earlier when Blank was faint lynch risk. I find on D1 scum tend to be preventative like that, rather than letting it get to a stage where they need to choose between bussing or deliberately voting a town over an under pressure scum.

accurately explains Hoopla's behavior D1. She was the engineer behind the Vedith vs BlankFace deathmatch and didn't seem to care which one died. This would be fine if she scumread both of them, but she thought Vedith's claim made him town. So why was she content in saying "I think Vedith is probably town for his claim" and then remain silent and let him be lynched anyway?

tl;dr
Hoopla steered the lynches toward two townies, didn't care which one was lynched, made a half-assed defense of Vedith to make herself look better, and did nothing to stop her townread from being lynched. I expected more "GET YOUR VOTES ON BLANKFACE!" from her.

Here is the only time Elsye really does it and then switches to Masquerade. There was little discussion at Hoopla. This screams setup.

[Wingback]

I don't see a world where Hoopla scum and Elyse town

If this is the case, why are you planning to vote Hoopla?

[MathBlade]

I don't see a world where Hoopla scum and Elyse town

If this is the case, why are you planning to vote Hoopla?

Good point.

VOTE: Hoopla

[Elyse]

Wouldn't you need to know more about Hoopla to know weather she is reluctant, or quick, to bus her partners as scum? Judging solely from her play this game I would say that Hoopla doesn't seem like the kind of scum player to be quick to bus her partners. So I could definitely see her hoping to salvage Mask at least one more day. I do think that that unvote was indicative of wanting to see if she could save Mask (Which makes more sense as scum since as you pointed out- Mask did not have two town posts to rub together), and she led the reasoning that Mask could use his shot to clear himself tomorrow. The thing about that is with Cmitc1 confirming there being a role blocker it seems like she would recant the plan to clear Mask via shooting right then and there since he would be blocked if he were a vigilante. Instead of moving back to interrogate Mask however, she jumped on me in post 1052. At that point Mask would no longer be confirmable, so why was she interested in trying to lynch a new target? I am not seeing the town intent from that.

This is an excellent point.

I disagree with that theory pretty strongly. For instance, in the Queen Micro, most of the town zoned in on me or BNL. When I started looking outside the pair of us at you and TTH, the general response was something like "he's keeping his options open, therefore scum." It turned out that the final scum wasn't in BNL/me so looking elsewhere was a necessity. I see a somewhat similar situation here with most players looking inside just Hoopla/Blankface and I'm not even close to convinced that that's the team.

I think that's the exception to the rule. Plus I never thought BNL was scum. I just found it suspicious how Hoopla townread BB on day 1 and suddenly started questioning him when his play has been the same the whole time.

Why are you townreading Egg? Sure, he voted Masquerade early but a lot of his posts seem like the casual, passive followups that scum typically while not staying engaged in the moment. On hindsight, I also thought his Masquerade reasoning was pretty weak.

Egg is more of a gut read. Like you said his Masq push was early, earlier than I expect bussing scum to push, and a lot of his posts just jive with what I'm thinking about the game. I don't see him being buddies with Hoopla either which isn't a strong point since she hasn't flipped yet. But you think he's scum with me, and I know that's not the case. What other buddy do you see for him? Blank?

Why BBMolla? We know now that him being in the neighborhood says nothing about his alignment. You had him as a scumread D1 along with Rob. What changed that you abandoned that read? Also, neither of them have been posting much at all lately and just coasting through the game.

If Hoopla is town I will have to reevaluate this read but I really, really do not see Hoopla townreading BB and keeping him in her pocket the entire game only to randomly cast doubt on him now. Her unjustified townread on him based on his "emotional outburst" just screams scum trying to keep a strong town player on her side. (Not that BB has been strong this game, he's barely been a presence)

Checked Egg's scum-meta to see what he's like as scum. The first game I looked at re-affirmed my suspicions that he was bussing Masquerade. For instance, take a look at his ISO here and Ctrl+F "Newbie" who is one of his partners. Egg replaces into the game and makes a giant catchup post most of which are points against his buddy capping it off with a vote at the end. Egg's partner wasn't under much pressure at all and the wagon was started by Egg. The stark similarity between that and his push on Masquerade here in Post 208 should nullify the reasons anyone is townreading him. Granted, he's also townread his partners in other games (his partner Beck in this game) but my point is that his posts in this game are scummy and his interactions with Masquerade shouldn't be a reason for a townread him as they fit very, very well into the range of how Egg interacts with his buddies. In fact, his push on Masquerade was based on very nebulous reasoning and him winding up being right at the end fits much more with an informed perspective than town that genuinely found scum.

Solidly confident Egg is scum here and I'd like everyone to engage me on this read.

Egg tying Hoopla to Masquerade pre-flip also makes more sense from scum tying his partner to the townie he wants to lynch next to set her up. Not at all sure who Egg's buddy is at this point. Just don't think it's Hoopla.

I don't rely on meta much at all, but there are some situations that call for bussing more than others. I normally hate bussing but in some games I have to do it. I don't think looking at one game is a strong enough reason to completely abandon my reason for townreading Egg. Hoopla's "let's let Masq shoot and prove himself" reads much more as what scum would do to me than Egg's early vote on Masq.

Re your points in 1323:

1. I understand what you're saying here. Egg was trying to push Masq-scum to make himself look good and used weak reasoning to do so. But for me the timing is still off. It was so early in the game and didn't lead to anything. He didn't get any credit for doing it. I just think the risks outweigh the benefits so early on.

2. This is a decent point if Egg is scum with BlankFace. But one major reason I personally stayed on Vedith was because he already claimed at that point and I thought it was unnecessary to force a claim out of BlankFace if I was fine with either of the two wagons.

3. Egg wanted to let Masq confirm his shot before Grendel claimed, so I don't have much of an issue with that. I also found it very town of him to vote for Hoopla when Hoopla and kts voted for Grendel right before deadline. Egg could have so easily went with them and said "deadline" but didn't.

4. Yeah his play today hasn't been spectacular. I agree there. But besides yours, no one's has. The game kind of went stale and I could see frustration being a reason for his "tempted to lynch BlankFace" post because it took even more momentum out of the game.

Why do you think it could be BB as Egg's partner now? I thought our unexplained townreads on each other were scummy.

^that's good, cmitc.

~~

VOTE: Masquerade

Hopefully we lynch the scum PR today.

1) If scum have 1 PR how does Hoopla know? This assumes facts not in evidence. Assuming Hoopla scum here this probably makes them a goon.

HAHAHA

Someone else sees it! Though you suggesting a me/Hoopla team is

Anyone know if Elyse tunnels as scum?

Elyse: I'd be happy for some self-meta from you if you're down.

I don't tunnel as scum. I also don't think I tunnel as town except once in a while I get stuck on someone.

Recent towngames:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=67138
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=64520
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=64409 (I tunneled on Titus really bad here and it blew up in my face)

Recent scumgames:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=65280 (third party)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=64487
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=61085


*recent is like 6 months ago lol besides Queen Mafia

This is a fishy turnaround though

Sure do! I practically own stock in greyhound with how much I bus as scum. A good bus is one that is ineffective and weak and entirely unconvincing yet believable. It is also effective when it is perceived you don't have to bus. Wingback can attest to this in 1800 but I bussed Karnos with practically every post I wrote.

The only time I found Hoopla and Elyse going at each other is during that fight. I think that fight was setup for a bus. They didn't really have Hoopla as a scumread far as I can tell. I also find the majority of the posts here completely devoid of any "hootspah".

However if Hoopla is town then Elyse is probably town. A post like 1200 I don't see happening unless Elyse and Hoopla are of the same alignment. Elsye notes the scumminess of Hoopla's vote hopping to seemingly avoid Masq. If they were differing alignments then I would have expected this to happen during the Masq lynch. Therefore either Elyse and Hoopla are scum together or Elyse is confbiasing and looking for more to be convincing.

I don't see a world where Hoopla scum and Elyse town because then Hoopla would have countered saying he wasn't being scummy when Elyse brought up the point in 1200.

I think 1200 is pretty damning for Hoopla and Elyse.

This is just ridiculous.

First of all why are you saying you're gonna vote Hoopla if you can't see Hoopla scum and me-town?

You keep bringing up 1200 and saying I should have brought up Hoopla's scumminess during the Masq lynch. Why would I do that before Masq flipped? I brought it up the very next day. So did Egg. So did Grendel. It seems as though your "tells" could point to all three of us.

In your mind, what's stopping an Egg/Hoopla team?

This looks to me like you're bussing Hoopla and trying to bring me down with her.

p-edit: so why not vote me?

[Wingback]

That doesn't make any sense. You just said there is no way you can see Elyse being town if Hoopla is scum so shouldn't you be voting Elyse by that logic?

Pedit: Will get to Elyse's post after this.

[MathBlade]

That doesn't make any sense. You just said there is no way you can see Elyse being town if Hoopla is scum so shouldn't you be voting Elyse by that logic?

Pedit: Will get to Elyse's post after this.

..I just said I see Hoopla and Elyse together and both are scum. I don't have two votes. Like what?

At work not reading that long post til I get home.

[Wingback]

@Elyse;

re: Post 1364, Egg's push on Masq being early is actually one of the reasons I suspect him. It was too early to deduce that Masquerade was mafia from the information we had at the time. Pushing on your partners early when you don't have a town player you can confidently push has a ton of scum motive. It gives you someone to push without risking antagonizing someone and sew in some early distancing. You were in the Queen game when I made this point about TTH's push on Aristo.

I haven't ruled out Hoopla/Egg. If that's the scumteam, then Egg has done some very good distancing tying both his partners together. The reason I haven't ruled it out is that Egg's opportunistic tying of Wake (my slot) and Hoopla based simply on them posting on the same page and not interacting. House was the one who brought up that weak reasoning and Egg jumped on it. Regardless, it's a possibility that shouldn't be discounted as those are the sort of moves that win scumgames.

Haven't ruled out Hoopla/BBMolla either. Hoopla wagoning him up early game so he can fake a bit of ATE gives her an excuse to townread him which seemingly lasted for three whole game days. As for trying to unconfirm BBMolla as town, why wouldn't she? It's not like BBMolla absolutely needs the faux-confirmation from cmit in order to survive and Hoopla's play serves to solidly distance them so that if one flips, the other is assured a win. Hoopla also put in extra effort in trying to discredit Robb's BBMolla read by pointing out all the times that Robb was wrong, and in general making him look stupid. It didn't look like it served an in-game purpose but if Robb was onto Hoopla's partner, that would be a great way to undermine him.

BBMolla/Egg is plausible. Post 1021 looks like one of those forced "disagreements" that scum have with each other and Hoopla pointed it out in Post 1022. The interactions from Egg's side are mostly to townread him with a few doubts sprinkled in. From BBMolla's side, they are mostly non-existent.

I don't follow why you think that besides my play, no one else's has been "spectacular" when from your perspective, I've spent most of today trying to derail a lynch on "obvscum Hoopla." I could maybe see it simply referring to activity level but it feels off. With that said, upon a re-read of the game and from recent interactions with Mathblade, I'm actually leaning against you being scum. Found a few towntells in House's ISO as well. That gives me a pool of Mathblade, Hoopla, Egg, BBMolla to work with.

[Killthestory]

you have pretty eyes wingback

[Wingback]

@Hoopla;

re: Post 1349, You didn't answer my question about your BBMolla read - that was the most important part.

I glanced through the games you linked. I didn't find anything compelling in the first one yet so I'll look at it more in-depth tonight. As for the second one, I found a wall where you justified sheeping but it was a large game with no flips at that time and you complained about the game length, size, and speed. Here, we only have eight players remaining, with only a page or so a day so it should be a great ground for you to bust out the analytical chops you talked about but I don't see anything.

The concern I had wasn't entirely just about sheeping and more about "Wingback is obliterating this game" which I didn't like. If you really thought collaborating with me was beneficial, I thought you would have expanded on that BBMolla read that I asked about to help me figure the game out.

[Elyse]

@Elyse;

re: Post 1364, Egg's push on Masq being early is actually one of the reasons I suspect him. It was too early to deduce that Masquerade was mafia from the information we had at the time. Pushing on your partners early when you don't have a town player you can confidently push has a ton of scum motive. It gives you someone to push without risking antagonizing someone and sew in some early distancing. You were in the Queen game when I made this point about TTH's push on Aristo.

Ok you're right I could see that being more likely to come from scum. I would like you to respond to my point about Egg voting for Hoopla instead of Grendel with deadline approaching because that is probably one of my strongest reasons for Egg town.

I don't follow why you think that besides my play, no one else's has been "spectacular" when from your perspective, I've spent most of today trying to derail a lynch on "obvscum Hoopla." I could maybe see it simply referring to activity level but it feels off. With that said, upon a re-read of the game and from recent interactions with Mathblade, I'm actually leaning against you being scum. Found a few towntells in House's ISO as well. That gives me a pool of Mathblade, Hoopla, Egg, BBMolla to work with.

Yeah I'm talking about you posting a bunch of walls and analyses. Also you're coming around on Hoopla scum so you have the chance to be truly ~spectacular~

Hoopla/Egg is unlikely to me because of the vote I mentioned and Hoopla/BB just flat out does not look like scum-scum to me. I'll never be able to see that.

[Grendel]

Oh,

Cool. So three more days to fiddle around with. Lets see what I can do tomorrow.

Welcome to the game MathBlade.

Thanks! So why are the top three wagons getting votes? Next post should succinctly summarize your thoughts while I start reading and ISOing.

Do you still need this Mathblade?

You must have posted this when I was already on my way out the door.

[Grendel]

Today hasn't been great for me. I've been tasked with caring for my cousin, and every time I turn around she is getting into something she shouldn't be.

Trying to collect my thoughts. Not much going.

I'll hold off until this kid goes to bed.

[Wingback]

I'm still leaning towards Mathblade as town based on Masq/Blank interactions. To elaborate on this more in-depth: I got a chance to look at Masquerade's scum meta. In Open 638, her partner BTD6_maker was lynched D1. She spent the entirety of the day defending her partner and was quicklynched D2 when he flipped. Another scumgame (Mini 1806) actually had a lot of similarities to this one. For those interested, Masquerade's partner Dunnstral was wagoned several times in the game from D2 onwards but Masquerade always found a reason to vote his counterwagon or push elsewhere, conspicuously avoiding her partner's wagon.

That strengthens my earlier point that Blankface/Mathblade isn't a Masquerade partner. It makes zero sense for someone like Masquerade to make Post 806 and just cavalierly plop down a vote on a partner's wagon when she could have stayed on Vedith and pushed that mislynch through. Scum also tend to hate it when they feel like there's a mislynch in the bag and suddenly, the votes move toward their partner. Unless they are very experienced, it's hard to resist the temptation to stay away from the deadline wagon hoping it won't go through. That still leaves me with

Egg/BBMolla/Hoopla

that I need to look into in-depth tonight and make my decision. Reasonably confident the scumteam is in there. If not, I'm pretty far down the wrong track and need to re-evaluate the towntells I'm using to POE the game.

Mathblade's posts are throwing me for a loop however. I'll try and sort through them in my next post to see if that firms up my read. I don't think she's bussing Hoopla though as I doubt she'd make it a point to remind me of how much she bussed her partners in Mini 1800... and then bus Hoopla.

[Wingback]

@Mathblade;

I would actually prefer lynching Egg or BBMolla over Hoopla. I suppose it's partly because I was confident in a Hoopla townread for a while and don't want to wind up being wrong there, especially given she's one of the people who's seeing things in a similar way to me. I realize if she were scum, she's morphing her reads around to appease me but on the off-chance I'm wrong, I'd obviously feel less bad about lynching a town-BBMolla than a town-Hoopla given the latter did next to nothing the whole game. Egg, I want to lynch because I'm so confident in his scumflip. Re-reading the part where he agreed with House's reasoning that Wake/Hoopla were a team takes away the doubts I had earlier.

Mind explaining your BBMolla townread for me? I don't see it at all. He had a meltdown early game and coasted through three days. He's not even trying at this point.

Hoopla/Elyse is actually very unlikely. Elyse and Hoopla are both active, decent players and I don't see them cross-bussing for no reason. They're the types I'd expect to endgame as scum. Comparing them to how you/MoI cross-bussed in Mini 1800 doesn't work because a) you and MoI both have antagonistic playstyles, b) you and MoI had significant playstyle clashes even in the scum PT, and c) you and MoI are both huge bussers. Your notion of a good bus is one that's entirely unconvincing. I don't think Elyse's push fit into that category. She was a driving force behind why Hoopla is on the brink of a lynch today.

I don't think you should be so quick to discount Egg/Hoopla though. Egg tying Masq to Hoopla could be a scum-gambit to completely clear him when they both flip. This post is the one I'm very confident is coming from an informed perspective:

House makes a good point about Hoopla and Wake being on the same page and avoiding interaction. Wake not being in Hoopla's so called town bloc is interesting with that in mind. Throw in the fact that Hoopla seemed to randomly exclude Masquarade from the Blank vs Vedith wagon thing earlier, then again on this Page (Post 729), and this very well could be the scum team (Hoopla/Wake/Masquarade). As much as I don't like Blankface's refusal to give any reads, that's probably my best guess at this point. Oh, I keep forgetting cmit too because he hasn't said much lately. Guess my "too many town reads" problem isn't such a big deal anymore. Strong town reads on Grendel, House, and Elyse is probably a good thing then.

His reason for my slot (Wake)/Hoopla being partners essentially amounts to being on the same page and not interacting. This makes no sense given a) people who are on the same page have less reason to interact given they don't have disagreements to hash out, b) whether players collaborate is entirely dependent on playstyle. That this wasn't original reasoning but he ripped it off of House just shows he's going along with arguments that he knows will resonate with town.