Mini Normal 1809: Game Over

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla;

re: Post 1349, You didn't answer my question about your BBMolla read - that was the most important part.

I glanced through the games you linked. I didn't find anything compelling in the first one yet so I'll look at it more in-depth tonight. As for the second one, I found a wall where you justified sheeping but it was a large game with no flips at that time and you complained about the game length, size, and speed. Here, we only have eight players remaining, with only a page or so a day so it should be a great ground for you to bust out the analytical chops you talked about but I don't see anything.

The concern I had wasn't entirely just about sheeping and more about "Wingback is obliterating this game" which I didn't like. If you really thought collaborating with me was beneficial, I thought you would have expanded on that BBMolla read that I asked about to help me figure the game out.

I didn't elaborate on my read of BBmolla because everything I believe about him is already out in the open. For you, I am sure determining someone's alignment based on one small passage of play is insane, and I can respect that attitude when you're putting in effort to analyse the game from 50 different angles. I simply do not have the time/energy to do so at the moment, so I have been tending to gravitate towards those rare glimpses behind the curtain amid the wash of noise and aimless bickering. I originally townread cmitc based on a similarly specific moment in the game.

@Hoopla;

re: Post 1326
2) I have a hard time buying that your townread on BBMolla at the end of D3 in fifty page long game with over five weeks of playtime amounts to "he had an emotional meltdown" on page seven a couple of days after the game started. You have stated paranoia of him for just coasting on the townread you gave him but it's concerning that you never followed up on that line of thought. On your Post 1188, there isn't much thought required to claim that he was neighborized and to summarize cmitc's posts in the neighborhood PT. That's a pretty weak reason for it to have assuaged your concerns about BBMolla's lack of scumhunting. Mind going over it in more detail so I can see if there's more depth to it?

3) If you are town here, I'd like to avoid mislynching but as it turns out, you are the concensus scumread and you not nothing has made me second-guess my townread on you considerably. Especially given you seem happy to post in the Open Setup Review thread which shows you have enough time to spare for mafia-related activities. This is also at odds with typical town behavior where players about to be lynched want to get as much information and reads out there as possible. In fact, it fits with the scum motivation of trying to minimize interactive tells and going down quietly once they see the writing on the wall. Assuming you are town, I really need something from you, hopefully a massive wall of content with in-depth and updated reads.

You're welcome to use the template of "typical town behaviour" to determine my play here, and for the most part I'm not proud of it, and genuinely don't know how to identify and overcome the source of my malaise. But it really only hits me town. I showed you different flavours of apathy/sheeping that has arisen in a couple of my town games, and could probably find more if I dug, but you won't find that from me as scum, and I typically do all good townie things that make you look townie like posting massive walls of content and being the most active player in the game.

Perhaps this is why I am sympathetic to molla's body of work in this game, because I don't find general activity and 'scumhunting' to be meaningful towntells -- it is with certain players, but I think a more accurate snapshot of his motivations came out early in the game when he was being wagoned, as opposed to 50 pages of nothing that he could do as either alignment.

I don't know. I feel like the type of content and effort required to escape the noose either today or tomorrow is too far beyond my scope, and that doing the little that I can afford to won't change anything. It's pretty obvious to me that the writing is on the wall for me with how locked in Grendel and Elyse are on me, as well as Mathblade now and whoever else is scum. I feel like the best defense I can possibly offer is just being honest and showing you my garbage apathy as town that you won't get from me as scum.

[MathBlade]

@Grendel Yes please. I want to see where people stand on Hoopla/Egg.

@Wingback My town read of BBMolla is mechanics based. Quite simply Cmit was a neighborizer and Cmit died. This means Cmit was either roleblocked or scum. If Cmit was roleblocked the kill had to be roleblocked. If the kill was roleblocked Grendel would have to be the partner. Grendel as scum partners with Masquerade wouldn't CC her and sure wouldn't claim roleblocked the next day. Therefore Cmit was not roleblocked. Since Cmit was not roleblocked he targeted someone. No one CC'd Molla. Ergo BBMolla is town.

[MathBlade]

or scum killed him*

[MathBlade]

I prefer Hoopla because it makes more sense to me than the Egg world. Notice how Hoopla is at L-1 and didn't claim. And no quick hammer. This means Hoopla likely scum.

[Hoopla]

I've already claimed, friend.

[MathBlade]

My bad I missed it sorry. Part of speed reading.

[MathBlade]

Still prefer Hoopla to Egg though. Gut.

[Wingback]

@Mathblade, mechanics isn't a reason to clear BBMolla:

MOD: Would a Weak Neighbourizers' action still succeed on a mafioso despite dying?

Yes, a Weak Neighborizer who successfully targets a Mafia player would both add that player to the Neighborhood PT (Neighborizer) and die (Weak).

We know that the scum killed cmitc1 and cmitc1 recruited BBMolla. This would happen regardless of BBMolla's alignment.

What are your thoughts on his play?

[Wingback]

Still prefer Hoopla to Egg though. Gut.

One reason I'm thinking Hoopla's probably town is that most of her responses are directed at me and she isn't talking to anyone but me.

If she's scum, I put myself out on a limb to defend her making me a potential juicy mislynch if she's lynched and flips scum. Given that, I think she'd want to at least make it look like we're partners but spending the entirety of her time buddying me, telling me I'm obliterating the game, and that she'll sheep me where I want to go sort of undermines that and helps people correctly figure out that she's scum buddying a town-me and makes it less likely I get mislynched after her flip.

I suppose the counter to that is that she's hoping I'm successful at driving the lynch off of her but if that's what she's rooting for, she'd be helping me do that by offering content. And if she saw the writing on the wall as scum and was resigned to a lynch, she wouldn't be buddying me so much and making it harder for her partner to get mislynches after she's gone.

[Wingback]

I'm going to a cafe to grab dinner and I'll respond to Elyse's and Hoopla's points then and read that game Egg linked. But Mathblade, I suggest looking at Egg's play in this game as a whole. He's detail oriented and his play has depth but he's never really IN the game. I find it very hard to believe that someone in perpetual catchup mode with one foot out the door so accurately pegged Masquerade based on weaksauce reasoning and then so accurately pegged Hoopla as partners with Masquerade. The likelihood of that is so much lower than scum pulling off a bus on Masquerade and tying people to her pre-flip so he can set up where to push later on. Regardless of what Hoopla flips, I still think Egg is scum so I'd rather hang him first.

[MathBlade]

Wouldn't you need to know more about Hoopla to know weather she is reluctant, or quick, to bus her partners as scum? Judging solely from her play this game I would say that Hoopla doesn't seem like the kind of scum player to be quick to bus her partners. So I could definitely see her hoping to salvage Mask at least one more day. I do think that that unvote was indicative of wanting to see if she could save Mask (Which makes more sense as scum since as you pointed out- Mask did not have two town posts to rub together), and she led the reasoning that Mask could use his shot to clear himself tomorrow. The thing about that is with Cmitc1 confirming there being a role blocker it seems like she would recant the plan to clear Mask via shooting right then and there since he would be blocked if he were a vigilante. Instead of moving back to interrogate Mask however, she jumped on me in post 1052. At that point Mask would no longer be confirmable, so why was she interested in trying to lynch a new target? I am not seeing the town intent from that.

This is an excellent point.

I disagree with that theory pretty strongly. For instance, in the Queen Micro, most of the town zoned in on me or BNL. When I started looking outside the pair of us at you and TTH, the general response was something like "he's keeping his options open, therefore scum." It turned out that the final scum wasn't in BNL/me so looking elsewhere was a necessity. I see a somewhat similar situation here with most players looking inside just Hoopla/Blankface and I'm not even close to convinced that that's the team.

I think that's the exception to the rule. Plus I never thought BNL was scum. I just found it suspicious how Hoopla townread BB on day 1 and suddenly started questioning him when his play has been the same the whole time.

Why are you townreading Egg? Sure, he voted Masquerade early but a lot of his posts seem like the casual, passive followups that scum typically while not staying engaged in the moment. On hindsight, I also thought his Masquerade reasoning was pretty weak.

Egg is more of a gut read. Like you said his Masq push was early, earlier than I expect bussing scum to push, and a lot of his posts just jive with what I'm thinking about the game. I don't see him being buddies with Hoopla either which isn't a strong point since she hasn't flipped yet. But you think he's scum with me, and I know that's not the case. What other buddy do you see for him? Blank?

Why BBMolla? We know now that him being in the neighborhood says nothing about his alignment. You had him as a scumread D1 along with Rob. What changed that you abandoned that read? Also, neither of them have been posting much at all lately and just coasting through the game.

If Hoopla is town I will have to reevaluate this read but I really, really do not see Hoopla townreading BB and keeping him in her pocket the entire game only to randomly cast doubt on him now. Her unjustified townread on him based on his "emotional outburst" just screams scum trying to keep a strong town player on her side. (Not that BB has been strong this game, he's barely been a presence)

Checked Egg's scum-meta to see what he's like as scum. The first game I looked at re-affirmed my suspicions that he was bussing Masquerade. For instance, take a look at his ISO here and Ctrl+F "Newbie" who is one of his partners. Egg replaces into the game and makes a giant catchup post most of which are points against his buddy capping it off with a vote at the end. Egg's partner wasn't under much pressure at all and the wagon was started by Egg. The stark similarity between that and his push on Masquerade here in Post 208 should nullify the reasons anyone is townreading him. Granted, he's also townread his partners in other games (his partner Beck in this game) but my point is that his posts in this game are scummy and his interactions with Masquerade shouldn't be a reason for a townread him as they fit very, very well into the range of how Egg interacts with his buddies. In fact, his push on Masquerade was based on very nebulous reasoning and him winding up being right at the end fits much more with an informed perspective than town that genuinely found scum.

Solidly confident Egg is scum here and I'd like everyone to engage me on this read.

Egg tying Hoopla to Masquerade pre-flip also makes more sense from scum tying his partner to the townie he wants to lynch next to set her up. Not at all sure who Egg's buddy is at this point. Just don't think it's Hoopla.

I don't rely on meta much at all, but there are some situations that call for bussing more than others. I normally hate bussing but in some games I have to do it. I don't think looking at one game is a strong enough reason to completely abandon my reason for townreading Egg. Hoopla's "let's let Masq shoot and prove himself" reads much more as what scum would do to me than Egg's early vote on Masq.

Re your points in 1323:

1. I understand what you're saying here. Egg was trying to push Masq-scum to make himself look good and used weak reasoning to do so. But for me the timing is still off. It was so early in the game and didn't lead to anything. He didn't get any credit for doing it. I just think the risks outweigh the benefits so early on.

2. This is a decent point if Egg is scum with BlankFace. But one major reason I personally stayed on Vedith was because he already claimed at that point and I thought it was unnecessary to force a claim out of BlankFace if I was fine with either of the two wagons.

3. Egg wanted to let Masq confirm his shot before Grendel claimed, so I don't have much of an issue with that. I also found it very town of him to vote for Hoopla when Hoopla and kts voted for Grendel right before deadline. Egg could have so easily went with them and said "deadline" but didn't.

4. Yeah his play today hasn't been spectacular. I agree there. But besides yours, no one's has. The game kind of went stale and I could see frustration being a reason for his "tempted to lynch BlankFace" post because it took even more momentum out of the game.

Why do you think it could be BB as Egg's partner now? I thought our unexplained townreads on each other were scummy.

^that's good, cmitc.

~~

VOTE: Masquerade

Hopefully we lynch the scum PR today.

1) If scum have 1 PR how does Hoopla know? This assumes facts not in evidence. Assuming Hoopla scum here this probably makes them a goon.

HAHAHA

Someone else sees it! Though you suggesting a me/Hoopla team is

Anyone know if Elyse tunnels as scum?

Elyse: I'd be happy for some self-meta from you if you're down.

I don't tunnel as scum. I also don't think I tunnel as town except once in a while I get stuck on someone.

Recent towngames:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=67138
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=64520
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=64409 (I tunneled on Titus really bad here and it blew up in my face)

Recent scumgames:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=65280 (third party)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=64487
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=61085


*recent is like 6 months ago lol besides Queen Mafia

This is a fishy turnaround though

Sure do! I practically own stock in greyhound with how much I bus as scum. A good bus is one that is ineffective and weak and entirely unconvincing yet believable. It is also effective when it is perceived you don't have to bus. Wingback can attest to this in 1800 but I bussed Karnos with practically every post I wrote.

The only time I found Hoopla and Elyse going at each other is during that fight. I think that fight was setup for a bus. They didn't really have Hoopla as a scumread far as I can tell. I also find the majority of the posts here completely devoid of any "hootspah".

However if Hoopla is town then Elyse is probably town. A post like 1200 I don't see happening unless Elyse and Hoopla are of the same alignment. Elsye notes the scumminess of Hoopla's vote hopping to seemingly avoid Masq. If they were differing alignments then I would have expected this to happen during the Masq lynch. Therefore either Elyse and Hoopla are scum together or Elyse is confbiasing and looking for more to be convincing.

I don't see a world where Hoopla scum and Elyse town because then Hoopla would have countered saying he wasn't being scummy when Elyse brought up the point in 1200.

I think 1200 is pretty damning for Hoopla and Elyse.

This is just ridiculous.

First of all why are you saying you're gonna vote Hoopla if you can't see Hoopla scum and me-town?

You keep bringing up 1200 and saying I should have brought up Hoopla's scumminess during the Masq lynch. Why would I do that before Masq flipped? I brought it up the very next day. So did Egg. So did Grendel. It seems as though your "tells" could point to all three of us.

In your mind, what's stopping an Egg/Hoopla team?

This looks to me like you're bussing Hoopla and trying to bring me down with her.

p-edit: so why not vote me?

....Again with this.

Are people seriously arguing that I should magically divine which of my scum reads I should vote? Like I can't even. So I am bussing because I am not voting you. There is no substance there. You are merely attacking me for voting.

This has to be a Hiplop/Elyse team.

I have been called scum before but not for the simple act of voting. This is so bad it has to be scum with Hoopla.

[MathBlade]

@Mathblade, mechanics isn't a reason to clear BBMolla:

MOD: Would a Weak Neighbourizers' action still succeed on a mafioso despite dying?

Yes, a Weak Neighborizer who successfully targets a Mafia player would both add that player to the Neighborhood PT (Neighborizer) and die (Weak).

We know that the scum killed cmitc1 and cmitc1 recruited BBMolla. This would happen regardless of BBMolla's alignment.

What are your thoughts on his play?

Damn K. That is bastard to me but can be addressed post game. Honestly when the claim of neighborizer came up UNCC'd I figured they were town. Likely still do as claiming it on the night a neighborizer died is stupid. Will reread BBMolla's ISO.

[MathBlade]

Still prefer Hoopla to Egg though. Gut.

One reason I'm thinking Hoopla's probably town is that most of her responses are directed at me and she isn't talking to anyone but me.

If she's scum, I put myself out on a limb to defend her making me a potential juicy mislynch if she's lynched and flips scum. Given that, I think she'd want to at least make it look like we're partners but spending the entirety of her time buddying me, telling me I'm obliterating the game, and that she'll sheep me where I want to go sort of undermines that and helps people correctly figure out that she's scum buddying a town-me and makes it less likely I get mislynched after her flip.

I suppose the counter to that is that she's hoping I'm successful at driving the lynch off of her but if that's what she's rooting for, she'd be helping me do that by offering content. And if she saw the writing on the wall as scum and was resigned to a lynch, she wouldn't be buddying me so much and making it harder for her partner to get mislynches after she's gone.

That is one way that scum would do it. Another option is to lie low if their buddy is town read a lot like Elyse and quickly die. However the game stalled so the more it prolonged the more they had to post.

[Wingback]

Yeah, but why buddy me so obviously when it would have been better to just look like she's distancing from me so that Elyse (or whoever her partner is) can mislynch me more easily tomorrow? She could always prod-dodge if she wanted to minimize the flow of information. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on Egg. I don't buy that he accurately nailed Masquerade and Hoopla together as a scumteam when he's barely been playing the game.

Also, BBMolla being recruited is null since there was only one kill. That doesn't incriminate him so no reason to hold back on it.

[MathBlade]

It actually does do a lot for him.

For BBMolla to be scum. Scum would have to kill Cmit and Cmit would have to visit BBMolla.
The other option is Grendel scum.

Assume BBMolla scum. Why would they shoot Cmit when Cmit listed them as town? That seems stupid.

Still rereading BBMolla's ISO.

[Wingback]

Scum had to kill cmit regardless because a weak neighborizer is an investigative role and the most powerful one in the game. They pretty much had to roleblock Grendel because Grendel had a vig-shot. No matter who scum was, they made the optimal move by roleblocking the vig and killing the neighborizer. That way they keep the game at evens and nullify the investigative role.

[MathBlade]

Evens is irrelevant if all the players incorrectly read town as scum. My point is that Cmit read BBMolla as town. If BBMolla scum they would have died eventually. Furthermore I skimmed BBMOlla's ISO and they are hella helpful. (Look at Mass Effect for example for a scum replace in for them)

When caught they trolled. Before that they were dead weight. Here they have a productive D1z furthermore I don't see them being scum with Hoopla based on what happened d1. This means Egg or KTS as I don't see BBMolla/Elyse. The only viable possibility here is BBMolla/Egg but even that is a huge stretch compared to Egg/KTS.

While it is literally possible for BBMolla to be scum it is very very very unlikely to the point of not considering their lynch today.

[MathBlade]

ah shit

Hoopla?

If anything: this here and one other fluff posts are the only times that KTS and Egg interact. Between that and the Quickhammer suggestion above that looks as if it belongs in day chat, if Egg is scum it is with KTS.

[Wingback]

How has BBMolla been helpful? Since I replaced in, all he's done is pop in from time to time with random comments about the game with zero follow up. Even from the start he's done next to zero scumhunting. I'd love to see links to posts where you thought he was helpful.

BBMolla/Egg are my top two scumreads as well so I agree on that count.

[MathBlade]

Cool hoopla is town

Dropping quick unprovoked reads
Trying to correct site meta they perceive as bad
Trying to steer people towards play he considers good and improve people as a whole
Being a jackass (I hate meta but when BBMolla is a jackass they are likely town)
Poking people and trying to in general display where they fuck up and help.

In contrast look at BBMolla's replace into Mass Effect Mafia.
When BBMolla is scum I have scumdar pings in my head.
BBMolla IMHO is not scum.

[MathBlade]

And I am phone posting so links are hard but I tried to go in chronological order for you.

[Wingback]

Took a glance at the game you are referring to (Mass Effect) and it's not helpful for meta at all given there are six different alignments. I'd classify it more as Mish Mash than mafia.

None of the things you listed are towntells or alignment-relevant. They are all easy things for scum to do to look helpful.

[MathBlade]

Took a glance at the game you are referring to (Mass Effect) and it's not helpful for meta at all given there are six different alignments. I'd classify it more as Mish Mash than mafia.

None of the things you listed are towntells or alignment-relevant. They are all easy things for scum to do to look helpful.

I have played with Molla face to face and on site. This is his town game.

I have not seen you make an argument why BBMolla is scum besides "not useful". I have said they were useful and your response is being helpful is what scum does to look town.

I do not ever plan on voting BBMolla without an argument. Of which I don't think anyone can do.

[Wingback]

I think he's scum because he's not scumhunting. He's not trying to figure the game out. He's not following up on any of his thoughts or opinions. At the beginning of the game, he spent most of his effort telling Robb that he was stupid to fend off suspicion on him. Now that he's generally townread, he's active lurking and only showing up after being prodded.

That's different from "trying to improve people as a whole" or "trying to correct site meta" neither of which I find alignment-relevant.

But more to the point, let's lynch Egg.

[MathBlade]

I am down to lynch either but I want Hoopla first. Hoopla doesn't seem to care but Egg does. That kind of apathy I see out of caught scum more often than town.