Micro 639: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game Over]

[Luna Fox]

I'll let you guys figure out the tic tac toe strategy details, in the meantime ill try to find town and PoE scum.

[GuiltyLion]

My point is, let's say we go your plan, scum kill atm, we lynch java, alpaca turns up dead, now we're forced to lynch Dunnstral, scum is forced to kill lane, and everyone else is immune from NKs

[lane0168]

If we wanted Java killed, we'd just lynch alpaca. They both end up dead and we don't give up any tic tac toe position.

[Luna Fox]

Just so that i understand this, scum cant kill itself right? do you guys think that a specific person not die might be telling?

[GuiltyLion]

But I just showed you how "after that we can still go wherever we want" is false. Reread what I'm saying, when scum kill in the corner D1 our lynch on D3 is still going to be mandated by scum.

Also Luna the strats are just gonna get more gnarly on D2 so I hope you're willing to think about it and contribute at least a little bit. And yes, that's exactly true.

[GuiltyLion]

I would like others to weigh in on whether they think Lane is arguing with my points in good faith.

[Luna Fox]

Wait i think I have an idea.
After scumhunting let's suppose we scumread someone in one of the N,E,W,S directions, would lynching both adjacent corners be optimal in this case?

[lane0168]

o [] []
X x o
[] [] []

Is what we have in that case. How is that mandated by scum? Reread what I'm saying

O [] []
[] x []
[] [] []

That's what we have going into day 2. We want lower middle dead, we lynch upper middle. We want upper middle dead, we lynch upper middle. Either way we end up with this

O x []
[] x []
[] o []

Day 3. We want upper right dead, at lynch lower left. We want lower left dead we lynch lower left.

We want middle left dead we lynch middle left, we want middle right dead, we lynch middle left. The only time we give it up is if we want to lynch the opposite corner of their first kill

[GuiltyLion]

eh okay yeah I see what you're saying more clearly now, you're right about that. I think I was assuming we always wanted to lynch the scummiest on D2 regardless of where the first scum kill happens, but you were saying we can kill the scummiest either way by lynching or lynching opposite them to force the NK on them.

I'll think about this, have to run for the evening now

[Javajoe24]

This stuff is kinda going over my head. I can definitely see lanes argument about if we lynch in the middle we can force scums NK's to what we want it to be, and I think that will probably be our best strategy. I cant believe I am actually agreeing with killing an IC.....

[Firebringer]

Vote Count 1.01

Ümläüt (L-5)
Luna Fox (L-5)
McMenno (L-3) AlpacaAlpaca, lane0168
Dunnstral (L-4) Ümläüt,
Javajoe24 (L-5)
GuiltyLion (L-5)
atm487 (L-5)
AlpacaAlpaca (L-5)
lane0168 (L-4) GuiltyLion,

Not Voting (5): Luna Fox, McMenno, Dunnstral, Javajoe24, atm487,


With 9 Alive, It takes 5 To Lynch

Day 1 Ends In (expired on 2016-08-22 18:00:00)

[Dunnstral]

If we lynch IC today:

[] [] []
[] x []
[] [] []

Scum nightkill: (it matters if they pick a corner or not)

[] [] []
[] X []
O [] []

In this scenario scum is basically "making us" not pick the upper right slot. and we wouldn't at least not yet
Scenario lynch and nightkill:

X [] []
[] X []
O [] []

X [] []
[] X []
O [] O

This is interesting as it simultaneously means we HAVE to pick the lower middle slot, or else scum wins

So in this scenario, we have two lynches, one of which is on an ic, so really one lynch, but we also have a forced scum nightkill (even if it's on another scum member, or else town wins)

But then town is forced to kill someone. Worst part is, if that someone isn't mafia, pretty sure the game just ends there (as town can no longer win in that scenario)

Along the way, mafia have tons of opportunities to influence this. So this route is a NO-GO

If instead we did:


[] [] []
X X []
O [] []

[] [] []
X X O
O [] []

Then it actually works
If mafia kill someone who is not a corner instead, here are the scenarios:

[] [] []
O X []
[] [] []



X [] []
O X []
[] [] []

X [] []
O X []
[] [] O

This works too


So what's my point? Depending on whether mafia kill

in the corners

or

not in the corners,

they directly manipulate the towns voting, within certain groups. HOWEVER, town also gets to force mafia to night kill specific people more than once

[Ümläüt]

If we're going to be voting based on who we want to actually lynch, we need to be pretty explicit about FoSing our actual top scumreads so that we're still talking about that as well. It's no good to figure out how to force the Mafia to kill who we want if we never figure out who we want.

FoS: Java

That random vote was weird as hell.

[Dunnstral]

It's no good to figure out how to force the Mafia to kill who we want if we never figure out who we want.

The scenarios I've provided require quite a bit of thinking, and you'd need to think of a

group of people

you suspect, rather than just individual people

I know it comes off as very analytical which might seem strange from me (I also know you weren't necessarily talking to me)

[Ümläüt]

Yeah, I got that

(And yeah, I was expecting less analysis and more shitposting)

[McMenno]

hello and I'm sorry to be your IC for today

the best strategy in tic tac toe unfortunately takes 4 naughts/crosses, so if we do that we have to be certain that there's mafia in there. I do not think lynching me will be a good strategy; you're sacrificing a lynch for a marginal strategic advantage

VOTE: lane

he's the corner slot I suspect the most for now

[lane0168]

How do you feel about atm guilty alpaca and Luna? They will all die next.

If we go the corner route, we need to consider the scumminess of the adjacent sides since we can most easily force their deaths. I'm against lynching me with guilty being on my adjacent side. If you want me dead lynch Luna.

My preferred corner lynch would be Dunnstral, obviously.

Lynching corners our best case scenario will be

X [] []
O o []
X x o--- at this point we're in lylo. So if we can pick the corner with the three least likely to be scum, we should be able to still win pretty easily with lynching a corner, as long as that corner doesn't have both scum. Which I'm pretty sure is my corner. I think guilty is town. Null on javajoe

[lane0168]

O x []
X x o
[] o [] - - - one scenario for killing middle first. If we think 3 corners are Towniest we can go this route.

O [] []
X x o
[] [] X another scenario with scum having next kill. Less control this way. Lylo the next day.

O [] o
X x o
X [] [] - also another choice.

Ok so basically if we can pick a corner with only one scum in it at most and kill the rest, killing the middle isn't necessary

UNVOTE:

[Luna Fox]

Ok so basically if we can pick a corner with only one scum in it at most and kill the rest, killing the middle isn't necessary

Isn't that what I already said

[lane0168]

Maybe. I didn't catch it

[Ümläüt]

Townreading Lane for obvious reasons.

It would be convenient if I were also scumreading Dunn but I'm not really (though I am suspicious that he's already contributing instead of spamming as usual).

VOTE: Luna Fox

Isn't that what I already said

Not that I can see.

[Luna Fox]

let's suppose we scumread someone in one of the N,E,W,S directions, would lynching both adjacent corners be optimal in this case?

I did actually ^

[lane0168]

VOTE: dunnstral

Lynching both adjacent sides is best option. But we don't necessarily want to lynch the person we scum read most, first

[Luna Fox]

Oh wait he said doing Corner then killing the respective N,E,W,S, not the oppsite, my bad.

[Luna Fox]

All this Tic Tac Toe thing is making my head spin @_@
I rather just townhunt like I normally do and you guys that are good at Tic Tac Toe can figure out what to do with that info.